My Crystal Ball On German Politics Over The Next 3 Years

 Only my speculation....where things are leaning right now.

First, confidence with the public with Chancellor Merz is dwindling....to the degree that within three months...I predict that the CDU Party will meet and lead Merz to hand party-leadership over to Bavaria's CSU 'Boss'....Soder.

At that point...for the remainder of the year....ZDF and ARD (the two public TV networks) will weekly interview and 'hype' Soder....leading to a lesser view of Merz.  Around the end of 2026....the CDU executive committee will talk to Merz and say....for the good of  upcoming state elections in 2027, you need to cite some  reason to leave.    

Then based on CDU-CSU-SPD support....Soder gets the role.

AfD?  By January of 2027....I see them close to 33-percent of public support, and the CDU-CSU folks near 19-percent. 

2027 will be a odd year.....where some marginal improvement occurs for the CDU-CSU (back up to  21-percent, and the SPD slipping to national numbers of 9-percent. The Greens and AfD together....will amount to near 50-percent of the national polling mid-2027.

The top two problems seen by the public?  Economic woes, and the fact that 50-percent of those on German welfare are non-Germans. 

AfD will figure the connection of the two issues, and this will be the top theme for the remainder of 2027.

Soder ends up being respected, but unable to resolve the budget/economic problems.....with the partnership of the SPD being  unable to fix much of anything.

At some point in 2028....early election occurs....with the public frustrated with both the CDU-CSU and the SPD.  AfD?  They are able to 'win' with around 35-percent of the vote, but no  party will partner-up for the coalition.  So you end up with a vastly weakened CDU-CSU, SPD, Greens....mostly leaning left.

Public frustration?  Doomed...the coalition likely lasts two years max.

At some point....after 2030....AfD will be near 50-percent on the win, and the freak-out of journalists, and the left-audience will occur.  The burden on the  welfare system....cleared within one year.  What folks will eventually say....if you work and pay taxes....you aren't a burden on the system, and that the CDU-CSU and SPD always had this 'tool'....never using it.