Sunday, April 3, 2016

The IMF, Greece, and a Leak

It's an event that may.....or may not have occurred.....a meeting between Paul Thomsen (chief of the IMF Europe group) and Delia Velculescu (head of the IMF team in Greece).  It was done via phone or video-teleconferencing, and you are led to believe that someone in the background recorded the episode, transcribed it, and later....helped the WikiLeaks people get their hands on it.

This conversation has to deal with Greece which is not doing that great with it's bailout plan, which the Germans, the EU, and the IMF has been a part of.

The conversation reaches this point where the two IMF bosses agree that a manufactured event will occur by July (likely hitting a hot and miserable period weeks before in June), and Greece will be finally getting to a default point.

At that point, if you believe the conversation.....the Germans will be under intense pressure to force Greece into a corner and achieve what the IMF people want.....massive restructuring of their state budget program.  Then in the heat of this whole thing.....the vote in England will occur over them possibly leaving the EU.

This transcript got out yesterday, and the Greeks are pretty mad about the whole thing.  They assume it's completely true.  The IMF?  They won't confirm any of this is true OR false.

The heart of this matter?  It's a 86-billion Euro loan to Greece (100-billion dollars American).

You could also stir in the problem of austerity.  If you even whisper 'austerity' to a Greek.....they start going into fits and waving their hands around in the air.  They see it as a failure upon their nation and frankly.....they've suffered enough.

The IMF wants to force the EU and German hand on this whole thing....make Greece swallow the austerity pill and suffer for several years while the economy recovers.  In their mind, everything discussed by Greece so far.....just consumes the 86-billion Euro, and in a few years.....brings them back to the table for more money because they can't pay the debt back or recover.

A logical guy, without much known on Greece would ask 'what the heck is going on here'?

It's a country that you really ought to go and visit.  The landscape, the history, the culture, the food, and the charm will all captivate you.  Greeks, after the Singapore crowd, at least in my mind....are the nicest people in the world.

But for decades....they found tens of thousands of ways to avoid paying taxes, understate profit, spend government tax revenue recklessly, and make various expensive promises to the public to gain votes.  They've been mostly bankrupt for a decade....surviving all various loans and gimmicks.  The 2004 Athens Olympics was the last bit of effort to empty out the cash reserves and put them on a path to ruin.

From a personal view?  This leaked conversation leads me to think that a fair amount of economic weakness will be demonstrated against Germany and the EU within 120 days.  I'm not a rocket-scientist but I'd take a guess that stock markets around the world will take heat and lose at least three to five percent of their value.

As for Greece stopping this mess by knowing the over the leaked conversation?  How?  They aren't interested in any real cuts to their budget, or any austerity ideas.  So, they can be as angry as they desire....demanding various IMF people be fired or removed from this episode.....but obviously the IMF knows that there's a end-point and it's in July of 2016.

Saturday, April 2, 2016

An Architecture Tour Around Wiesbaden/Mainz

People go on trips and vacations for a variety of reasons.  I'm mostly a history, geography and architecture person.  So this is my list of twenty-one things in the local Wiesbaden and Mainz area that are worth seeing strictly from a architecture or landscape prospective.  And no, they aren't ranked:

- The Wiesbaden Casino

- The Mainz Zitadelle (the fortress)

- The Mainz Dom

- The Mainz Roman Theater between the Zitadelle and the S-Bahn station

- Mainz Augustinerasse

- The Rosengarten on the far southeast corner of Mainz and four minutes walking from this is the Volks Park

- Mainz Christuskirche

- The Mainz Bahnhof Square and Station

- The Wiesbaden Bahnhof

- Nordbrucke Railway Bridge from Mainz to Wiesbaden (you can walk over the bridge and it's well worth the walk).

- Schloss Biebrich and the Schloss Park next to it

- Niederwalddenkmal at Rudesheim.  Note, you have to take the cable car to the top where the Germania statue rests, and while in Rudesheim, you might as well admire the tourist-trap fake village built around the whole gimmick.

- Nerobergbahn and the hilltop.  It's at the north end of Wiesbaden and the railway is an interesting piece of design from the late 1800s.

- Wiesbaden Orthodox Church (next to the Nerobergbahn).

- The Wiesbaden Kurpark.  A city park going back to the 1800s and a great example of English landscaping.

- Wiesbaden's Saint Augustines of Canterbury Church

- Wiesbaden's Marktkirche

- All the grand houses on Gustuv Freytag Strasse in Wiesbaden

- All the grand houses on the banks of the Rhine River, on the eastern side of Mainz

- Ringkirche of Wiesbaden

- Saint Bonifatius Church at the Luisenplatz (you might as well check out the monuments in the square in front of it)

And no, it's pretty much impossible to see and experience all of these in one week.

Annex 46: Belgium's Solution

Most people expected some dramatic legal actions to come out of the Brussels terrorist attacks.  So, late Friday.....there's this new draft thrown up that would concern new incoming immigrants.  It's a statement that you would sign as part of the documentation process.

Annex 46, the newcomers statement.....is a fairly blunt and simple piece of wording.

So, it starts off that you want to reside or immigrate into Belgium, and there's this expectation of safety, security, rights, obligations, values and freedoms that are tied to your life in Belgium.

Then, you get this short list of fundamental rights.  Freedom of speech is listed.  If you incite hatred or violence in your speech.....you will be dragged into court.  Freedom of assembly is listed.  If you are forced into an assembly....that's wrong and considered illegal.  Freedom of religion is listed.  You can join any religion, and quit any religion.  Freedom of sexual orientation is listed.  You can have any relationship of any type.

Spread through the document are a couple of minor features....like the fact that at age 18....you are considered an adult and can marry anyone of your choosing, without peer pressure or parental authority involved.  Equal work and life conditions for men and women is listed as well.

At the bottom, you'd sign the document.

The thing....if you were a pretty die-hard Islamic member, there's some conflicts with the document.  Naturally, with the duality wording in the Koran.....you can slide around and just lie because it's all non-Islamic democracy garbage.  But then you come to one odd item....this freedom to quit your religion.  You see, with all the wording in the Koran, and literally dozens of duality statements where something is forbidden on one page and acceptable on another.....quitting the Islamic religion is not given a duality statement.

Once a member, you can't quit....that's the general hardcore philosophy within the religion.

Normally, you'd be threaten with death if you attempted to quit the Islamic religion.  If the topic ever comes up....the normal religious scholar will state that no one quits. When pressed to say it's a death sentence.....they go back to the same comment.....no one ever quits the religion so it's not a big deal.

This statement is all just draft now and will face some issues.  I suspect that it will eventually pass, and then get challenged in court.  The judges will have a problem in that these are all fundamental rights written into the Belgium constitution.

After it gets through the legal episode?  Here's the thing....you could quickly require the same statement when you apply for a driver's license, a new passport, registering a car, etc.  Within five years....virtually every single Belgium citizen probably will sign the statement at least once or twice.

So when some idiot finally does something stupid or threatens someone who is marrying without the family permission.....the police will pull out the statement and ask if you did sign it.  You probably will stand there and grin.....now remembering the stupid statement.  Then the whole legal affair will be about you violating your promise to the nation itself.    If you were a new citizen....they might find a way to void your citizenship and force you back to your original point of origin.

The odds that this statement will rapidly be used by other European countries?  I'd make a guess that within six months.....most follow the Belgium example.

The Poll Story

Focus, the German news magazine (which I often refer to) went out and had a poll taken across Germany via TNS Emnid (a polling organization).

They asked a simple question....would German voters across the nation (not just in Bavaria) consider voting CSU (the Bavarian conservative party which runs normally ONLY in Bavaria).

A quarter of the national voters said yes.

Before this, if you asked me to take a guess.....I would have predicated somewhere around 10-to-15 percent.  It is a bit of a shock.

For historical reference.  The national conservative party in Germany is the CDU.  Out of sixteen German states.....they run in fifteen of them.  The Bavarian state has the CSU, which is basically the same party, with a couple of platforms that go more conservative.  The German news media and intellectual crowd typically makes fun or writes up amusing pieces on the CSU....mostly as a way to slam them.

How much of the CDU national success is dependent on the CSU (Bavarians)?  This is always a good question.  Eight-percent of the national success of the CDU....comes from the Bavarians.  By itself,, the CDU was only able to churn up 37-percent of the national vote in 2013....the CSU had 8-percent.  3,544,000 voters came to support the CSU of Bavaria.

The thing is....Germans want an alternate way to slam Merkel and the current immigration strategy....which the CDU, the SPD, the Linke Party, the FDP, and the Greens are attached to.  The only alternate vote nationally?  The AfD folks, who are considered far-right extremists and beyond their negativity on immigration....they have a weak platform (or non-existent) for the next twenty-odd topics that would come up for political talks.

There's this thin line existing between the CDU and CSU.  It's a unwritten rule.....the CSU is a Bavarian creation and supposed to contain itself in Bavaria.  The CDU is a national creation and suppose to contain itself to fifteen of the sixteen German states.

What happens here?  Unknown.  This is a scenario that comes out once or twice a month and journalists know that there's a fair amount of research going on.

The biggest problem of the CSU, if they were going to go national....is that they need an impressive face at the national level.  Right now.....their 'boss' is Horst Seehofer, who is a plus-minus kind of guy.  He's a big tall guy who can throw a few good arguments into the mix, but he's getting near retirement age and probably not pumped up enough to be a national figure.

The timing of this?  Well, here's the thing.....October/November is the next state election episode (two eastern German stats).  If you were going to get into the mix of things nationally....you might want to make these two elections your first big step, in an effort to challenge the AfD folks.  But you'd have to find some players in the two states who were disenchanted CDU people and willing to quit them....to join the CSU.  So far, no one has suggested any names or said anything much.  If you wait past this election....spring of 2017 brings three other state elections.  Those are mostly western states in Germany.

Could we end up in the November 2017 national election with a national CSU Party, which gets 25-percent of the vote and the AfD is marginalized back down to 5-percent?  That's probably the most accurate view of the situation developing.  Could the CSU win enough to push both the CDU and SPD out of the leadership position of Berlin?  Maybe.

Kinder Eggs

Kinder Eggs aren't a German invention.  I know....Germans will argue about this, but the idea really started in Italy under the Aprile....a small Italian company, which later got bought and integrated into Ferrero.  It's basically cheap chocolate made into an egg, with a 'prize' in the middle which rests in a plastic shell.


Today, you can buy the egg for roughly 89-euro cents (roughly a dollar).

The prize is typically what kids and adults go after.  I'd take a guess that there now at least fifty thousand prizes which have been developed and sold within the shell over the past forty years.

Some of the prizes have been collector items.  Most have not.

My first real experience with the Kinder Eggs was in the 1994-timeframe when I was the office snacko for my Air Force shop.  I was buying a number of things via the commissary, BX and off-base....and one day came to some display at a German shop where I could buy a stack of 100 Kinder Eggs for a heavily discounted price.  I bought two stacks (200 eggs), and carried them back to the office.  I figured....in three months....I'd sell all of them.  Well....in my customer area of forty potential people....I sold out the whole thing in two weeks.

Later, I started to buy more at the commissary.....doing so until around 1998 when the commissary decided that they were too dangerous to sell (kids might swallow the toys).  Yeah, it was rather bogus, but that's the mentality of dealing with Americans.  Luckily, we don't consider beer, or Jack Daniels equally risky and avoid selling either.

I've worked with people who had 'toy' collections from the Kinder Eggs into the hundreds.  Personally, I never got much into the deal. The chocolate is the cheap stuff (one step above Snickers) and the toy is some Chinese-made item which I don't see any big deal about putting together or collecting.

So, if you are an American and happen to be on your first big trip to Germany.....step into a regular shop and buy one Kinder Egg to experience the gimmick.

Friday, April 1, 2016

The Pfalz Ticket

If you live in the Pfalz area of Germany....you have opportunity to buy a 24-hour railway ticket via your local machine or railway station.

The deal is this....24-Euro....for a ticket that starts in the morning hours and ends at midnight....giving you unlimited travel in the Pfalz state and Saarland as well.  The catch?  You can't travel over the stateline of the two regions.

The plus of the 24-Euro ticket?  It's for you AND up to FOUR friends.

So you could board the train in Kaiserslautern, and head up to Mainz in the early morning hours and spend all day walking around the city with your friends on a Saturday, and come Saturday evening....take the last train out of Mainz to return to Kaiserslautern.  No hassle on driving, parking, or getting lost.

Each German state has it's own German ticket, and each is priced different (Hessen is 32-Euro, Bavaria is 23-Euro).

For a group of five, it's a fantastic deal.

The Bahn Flex-Ticket

Occasionally in Germany....someone will accidentally tell you some tidbit about traveling that isn't widely advertised.

When I was here in 1984....someone made some minor comment in some base publication about a three-day German railway pass for roughly 110 Deutsche-Marks. (roughly $40 at the time).  I was curious and asked two simple questions at the travel office on base.  I thought it was a great deal.  So I planned a simple three-day trip on an American holiday weekend to see a chunk of Germany in 72 hours.  Then the on-base travel office said fine, but we don't sell the ticket.  You have to buy it direct from the Bahn clerk in town.

I went down on a Friday night at 10 PM and bought the 72-hour pass.  And I rode across various parts of what was then 'West Germany' along the northern third of the country.  It was cheap, efficient, and perfectly safe.

Today?  The ticket still exists but you have to ask more questions because it's a bit different.

For example....you can buy a flex-ticket for three days of travel within one month....2nd-class seat....for 191 Euro.  If you want first-class seats....it's 258 Euro.  You start on day one....travel to Berlin and spend four days there....then do travel day two and spend three days in Erfurt......then do travel day three and spend four days in Munich....then use travel day four and return back to the starting point.

If you want seven days of flex-travel in one month?  It's 272 Euro.

Five consecutive days of travel at 2nd-class (no flex or one-month period)?  That's 213 Euro.  Roughly $250 American.   Upgrade it to 1st-class seats?  288 Euro.  Ten consecutive days at 2nd-class?  309 Euro.

If you wanted to do the 'adventure' side of this.....think of one single region where you'd like to hit three medium-sized cities over a ten-day period with the flex-ticket.  You need four total days of travel....so the ticket for your requirement is 205 Euro (upgrade it to first-class for 277 Euro).

Interested?  Just Goggle up flex-ticket and Bahn, and the page will come up with the options and cost.

The thing is....you really need to plan this out and have a decent agenda.  It means traveling somewhat light, and gleaning over a schedule to know how many hours it takes to get from X to Y, and what options exist.  I also would avoid German holiday periods like Easter because traffic is heavy and seating limited.

For my weekend trip in 1984.....I actually started out at 12:05 out of Kaiserslautern....leaving for Frankfurt (the last train of the night). I had to sit around for three hours in Frankfurt at the time of arrival.....waiting for my long-distance train going to Hamburg.  Most people aren't that thrilled for this type of travel.

So, just some travel advice.

The Coffee Cup Idea

It was going to happen sooner or later.....so in my local German state of Hessen....it's sooner.

When you now go into a coffee shop and order a coffee-to-go.....offering them your own personal cup....they will now fill it up and sell the coffee for 10-cents less.

It's a program that the Hessen Environmental Ministry worked up called "Mug Bonus".  The catch put into the rules?  The coffee shop guy has to ensure that the cup never comes into contract with the dispense nozzle.

So you look at this with some logic and common sense.  Yes, there are literally billions of the cups used each year and it could be seen as a waste.  But how many people will want to drag a cup around in their jacket or pocket?  Out of a 1,000.....I'd take a guess that fifty people might be willing to do this.  But in my humble opinion, these are Germans who are not so much hyped up on the environment.....but hyped up on saving 10-cents a day on their coffee.  Figure 50-cents a week.....two Euro a month, and you save 24-Euro a year.  And yes, there are Germans who count every single expense and would do this strictly for the 24-Euro a year.

The issue I see is in the midst of flu season....some stranger would hand his potentially infected cup that he'd been handling to the coffee house clerk, who would fumble around with this, and hand it back....getting bacteria on his hand and then possible handle the next guy's cup.  You could pass the flu from one guy to six guys in a matter of five minutes.

It's one of those ideas that I probably wouldn't get too excited about.