Covid Chatter

 N-TV (commercial news in Germany) had an interesting interview this morning, over Covid affairs.

The Statutory Health Insurance 'boss'....Andreas Gassen....stood up and gave a curious view of the landscape in the spring of 2022.

He says because of the folks getting Covid and recovering....plus the vaccination business....a lot of people in the spring of 2022 will be walking around with antibodies.

As the temperatures go back to warm weather.....the rate of infection will seriously drop.

Then he says....with full confidence....by the late fall of 2022....the virus will come back yet again.  

Sounds like the flu?  Yeah....sounds a lot like the flu.

Maybe the politicians can focus people for another season, but I would suspect by the spring of 2023....most Germans are going to figure this out, and assign a belief that Covid has simply transformed itself into a flu-worry (not a doom worry).

'Ratting' On Your Neighbors

 I noticed this short piece off N-TV (commercial news in Germany) today.  

So, down in the state of Baden-Wurttemberg....the state is run by a coalition...led by the Green Party.  

The Finance Ministry?  It's a Green Party instrument.  

The chief of the ministry got this idea and has implemented it.

There's a system to go on-line shortly....where you can go and anonymously 'rate' on your neighbor in terms of tax-avoidance.

If you knew your well-to-do neighbor was taking cash out of the country, or had some gimmick to avoid taxation.....you'd just lay out the details.

Naturally, this has gotten front-page attention in Baden-Wurttemberg, and turned into an election-period mess across the country.

Various opposition parties are chatting about this, and hinting that it's going to turn people against their neighbors.  

Where this will go?  Unknown.  Hurting the Green Party image prior to the election?  It might drag up questions....if you ended up with a coalition under the SPD....with the Green Party getting the Finance Ministry of the national government?  You might see this idea go national.    

Bête Noire Moment

 Tim Rohn wrote up a column for Welt, and the title is: "I Don't Recognize Germany Again."  It's worth a read (either via Welt or N24 TV news).

Basically, he lays out the landscape and projects that German society is currently walking down a path.  In my view....it's a path with massive dismay, hefty frustration, continual fear of the unknown, anxiety over the nightly news, and doubt over leadership decisions.  In simple terms, it's not the Germany that most of the older generation folks grew up within the 1970s/1980s/1990s.  

You see this anxiety business a good bit with German teens associated with the Greta folks ('Fridays for the Future').  If you don't fall into line with their beliefs....you are associated with the 'hopeless crowd'.

The chatter over ending all in-country flights (like flying from Hamburg to Munich).....has a number of people shaking their head over how this would reach the level of seriousness that it occupies today.

Covid-this and Covid-that episodes line up almost nightly now.  Ban-rules get introduced and then evolve on a week-by-week basis.  

I would imagine somewhere out there.....various Germans now hitting the mute-button nightly with the 8 PM news program off ARD at least once each night....because they really can't handle more fear, or more propaganda.

I'm reminded of the French term....bête noire, which means more or less....there's this 'black beast' that you can't handle or approach, or sit in the company of....because you associate it to be feared, disliked or perceive it eventually harming you.

In this case, the German society is dragged along on this 'trip' (my best term for it) and this is like one of those 1980s cheap tourist buses.  Somewhere in the initial period, you reach this bête noire-moment....realizing this trip is not going as planned, and your gut tells you to get off the bus before it reaches a final destination.

All of this....the climate change talk, the storms, the continual presentation of Berlin politicians as 'Jesus-characters', Covid, ban-rules anxiety, recession chatter almost daily, and almost no end to disasters in the mix....make for a wonderful bête noire-creature.  

Denmark's New Path on Immigration

 I follow a number of European countries, and their various positions on migration, asylum and immigration.....along with the integration success/failures.  

In the past month or so....Denmark has come up a good bit.  They've gone to a new understanding on how they will handle immigration.

So, here's their basic understanding.  If you want to immigrate or migrate into Denmark.....you need to apply at the Danish embassy in your home-country.  They don't want you just showing up and saying 'hey, I've arrived and now want to apply'.

The reason for this attitude?  It comes down to three reasons:

1.  They are tired of the legal situations that develop and the number of lawyers hired up (often working free) to stall deportation or force acceptance on visas.  

2.  They got into continual battles about accommodations and what was expected, or what was mandated by the system.  There simply aren't a lot of empty houses or apartments sitting around in Denmark (I can say this....having been there on three separate vacations and able to observe the country close-up).  

3.  Finally, when the visa process failed.....the deportation process became a massive headache.  

The pro-asylum folks in Denmark visibly upset about this change in attitude?  No doubt.  But you could have predicted this trend three years ago.  

The other side of this process?  Presently, if you measured up the situation....a lot of the people who did just show up....were young males.  If you made this into a process where you applied in the home-country (at the embassy).....you might have corrective situations where 50-percent of the applicants accepted were young females....without the tendency for drug/alcohol issues.  

How long will this interpretation stick around?  Well....probably until the next election.  

Railway Strike

 If you were a German and traveling around the country this week by rail.....today's the last day to get 'home'....before the strike starts up.  

Position of the union for this strike?  They want a 3.2-percent rise in pay and limit this contract period to 24 months. They also want a 600 Euro 'bonus' for Covid.  It's not clear how the bonus would work (if you are mandated to get the vaccination, or if you had Covid).  

The Bahn folks?  They agree totally on the 3.2 percent pay raise....except they want it for 40 months.  Originally, they were totally against the 600 Euro 'bonus' for Covid.....saying now they would at least discuss the matter (meaning it won't come anywhere near that 600 number, and they may even come to call the bonus some other word).

Effect of this five day strike?  It nails down the Green Party idea of halting all in-country flights....as unworkable.  

The Covid-bonus deal?  Most German companies DON'T give Covid-bonuses.  

Public opinion?  In the past, most Germans leaned toward supporting the union folks.  This time?  I'd say that slightly more than half the country aren't that supportive of the union.  This five-day deal won't help.

On the Left-Coalition Idea and NATO

 Chatter started up over the weekend....with numbers appearing to show that the SPD will absolutely win the election, and possibly the Greens/Linke Party have the numbers to partner-up....meaning a left-coalition.

So, the NATO position was brought up.  Previously, it was a pretty solid position of the Linke Party to withdraw from NATO.  For the Greens (1980s), that was a former position as well.

What the Linke and Greens say today?  They are somewhat positive over NATO but they also don't like the 2-percent of GDP mandate (you remember the blunt talk that Trump had).

So if you take this chatter, and look at the landscape, I'd suggest this scenario unfolding:

1.  A SPD-Green-Linke coalition would be around for four years.  They absolutely will not fund at the 2-percent level, and it would shock me if they go even past the 1-percent level.  

2.  Foreign deployments will likely become non-existent (beyond the EU borders).

3.  Various members of NATO will view this lessening of financial support as a major negative and continually go negative over Germany.

4.  For those who've been observing the German military and maintenance problems of the past decade.....I'd go and expect the maintenance problems to only double in size over the next four years. 

This should be an interesting situation to watch unfold. 

My Tuesday

 I spent yesterday driving north (2 hours) to Dusseldorf.....to the caravan/RV/camper show.  It runs at the Messe there, until Sunday afternoon, and I'd highly recommend it.

Cost? 15 Euro per adult, and 10 Euro for parking.  

Exceptionally long day, but you get a chance to see every type of RV possible, and a lot of new technology.  

Note, the bus service runs from the parking lot to the expo.  They are awful serious about Covid requirements (3 G options are mandated).  Food and beverages are not cheap at the show.  Tickets can be procured online....Google-up Dusseldorf caravan show.  

Two Political Stories

 First, more polling revealed from Focus this AM....using info from the weekend and gathered from 2,340 people.  It's dismal news for Merkel's party (the CDU):

SPD clearly ahead now at 27-percent.  CDU-CSU has fallen to 19.5 (if the CSU holds 7 of those points, it means the CDU is really around 12.5, and that's pretty crappy for them.

FDP?  13-percent.  Greens?  They fell a bit, now at 15.5-percent.  AfD at 10.5-percent.  Linke at 6.5-percent. 

With these numbers, it appears that the left coalition (SPD-Linke Party-Greens) is currently possible.  If the Greens fall any further....it'd be hard to make this coalition possible.

For the CDU executive committee, responsible for Laschet being chosen....it's a four-star disaster.  

Second story?  ZDF (public TV, Channel Two) ran a two-hour election show (live) called 'How Are You, Germany' last night.

One moderator, each party had people there to explain things, and a mix of different people to explain their problems....wanting the political system to fix/resolve the problems.

Laschet, Scholz, and Baerbock were not there....in case you were wondering. 

I'll say four things about the evening:

1.  This method of tying people to problems marginally works.  Round-peg in a triangular hole situation.

2.  From 20-odd people with problems.....they were all at home and connected to the TV show via zoom.  Occasionally, the camera would throw the group up, and it was obvious they were NOT buying into the answers or words used by the politicians on probably half of the commentary.  

3.  On the 'save-the-Earth' routine, I don't think any of the seven parties gave the 'magic' theme or words to make the 'kids' happy.  The politicians continually harped on the fact that you have to run a country with jobs and commerce, and you can't resolve any of this overnight.  

4.  Oddly enough, the AfD rep did have a moment or two of clever answers....maybe getting noticed a bit more.

5.  There were just too many politicians in the mix, for this format to effectively work.  I won't criticize ZDF that much (this is probably some format they've done a dozen times in the past).  

So to sum up things.....if anyone was looking for a 'Jesus-party'.....they probably won't be able to find it.  You are simply looking for the least screwed-up party and least dislikable Chancellor candidate.