Health Costs

 N-TV had this update here in the AM, and it's a curious one.  If you stand around and review the amount of medical cost being expanded for health care (by the insurance companies)....you have to figure there's a problem brewing over Covid in Germany.

Various health insurance companies in Germany are asking the new Health Minister (Lauterbach) not delay the plan for financial reforms (written into the coalition agreement to build the current government).

So here's the blunt news....for 2022, the government will have to fund another 30 billion Euro because of Covid cost.  

Looking ahead at 2023?  They are already talking about a surcharge of 10 billion Euro.  

One aspect which you begin to notice after a while....there are dozens of ways that Covid has a cost factor to the average single German, from business support, to out-of-work individuals.  No  journalist ever sits down to add up the columns and comment over the massive general cost to a nation of 83-million people.  

Lack of Trust Story

 If you pick up Welt today, there's an article by Sebastian Beug on an odd trend in Germany.  Someone went and polled Germans about their 'trust' in numbers being thrown around by the Robert Koch Institute (RKI)....the German gov't agency on health advice about Covid.  

Sixty percent of Germans said 'no, we don't trust the data published'.  

Shock?  Throughout 2020....the news media (particularly ARD, ZDF.....the two public TV networks)....acted on the assumption of whatever RKI published or said....was like the 'Gospel of Luke' in terms of value.  

At some point in the spring of 2021....you started to notice an occasion or two....where the data was a slight bit skewed, and in the past month or two....the way that hospitalizations are explained as being 90-odd percent unvaxed-people, that came to be wrong.  It's just that a fair number of Covid folks in hospitals....were never asked about their vax status, and when the data was added up....folks just said the 'unknowns' were non-vax (which wasn't true in the slightest).

Are you mandated when you are taken by the German ambulance to the hospital to provide this vax status?  Well....it's supposed to be passed in some legislation but it's not clear yet on when it'll occur.  Will people respond?  I'm kinda wondering about that. 

 Is this lack of trust a problem?  I would say this....Germany is two years into Covid, and a fair number of people (probably over 50 percent) have run out of general patience and are fed-up with the lifestyle now required.  

These 8:15 PM 15-minute 'extras' that occur on ARD (Channel One, public Tv) probably aren't watched that much anymore if it's more 'fear-porn' over Covid.  

Bringing up 'herd immunity'?  Don't do it.  It's one of those twenty-odd topics on public TV that is forbidden now.  

In terms of public forum chatter?  I'd say the majority of Germans are fed up, and can't stand another 50-minute forum with four expert guests talking about Covid.

How things will be by mid-summer?  Unknown.  But I think people are ready for some new catastrophic event (some meteor hitting the Earth, some alien UFO captured by the North Koreans, or some discovery of Hitler's long-lost nephew who was stashed away in Chile in 1944).

Door Guard Story

 I had to go to a city-run operation (Wiesbaden) this morning, and like a number of things that have occurred since spring of 2020.....there's a door-guard there....to ensure I meet the Covid rules of the day.

You don't just walk in.....nor do you show up without an appointment, unless this is a grocery or coffee shop.  

You can laugh about the 'guard' business, but it's standard policy now.

So here's the thing....in 99-percent of all cases....it's a Turkish or Middle-Eastern guy (Iraq, Syria, etc) that has on a guard-like shirt or some jacket that says 'security'.   It's like a union thing.....it can only be a non-German.

Maybe in two-percent of cases....it's a Turkish female, but in the other 98-percent....it's a male from that region.

The guy today?  He had to see my visa-card as part of the 'show' for the vaccination pass, and it's labeling me American, so he flipped over language-wise, and wanted to impress me with his English (it wasn't that bad).  

How many work around the city?  I would imagine around 300 guys now serve as security/door-guards.  For two months back in 2020.....to get into my local grocery, there was a guard there just to ensure not more than 50 folks were in the store at one time.  

Political Chatter

 I looked at Bild this morning, and they'd done a survey over how Germans would vote....if an election were held today.

So, the CDU/CSU folks (the big losers of the September national election) have arrived at 24-percent of the national trend....with the SPD still leading at 27-percent.

This was done by the group Insa.....which I tend to regard as a pretty reliable polling organization.

The Greens....at 16-percent, with the FDP at 10-percent.  AfD stands at 11-percent and the Linke Party (far left) marginally at 5-percent.  

Any real shifts?  No.  It's safe to say that the CDU/CSU has a lot of repairs to accomplish before they get back up into the 30-percent range.  The Linke Party?  I would suggest they've lost a fair amount of voters over to the Greens, and as a national party.....they may have some serious problems ahead (in four of the eastern states....they still maintain a true presence).  

Why The German Negativity Over Nuke Power?

 This goes to three primary reasons:

1.  Chernobyl.  This 1986 incident wasn't detailed to the public (Germans) for at least a month, and when they started to grasp the after-affects (radiation on German crops/gardens)....it sent everyone into a serious amount of negativity over nuke power.  

I would suggest for almost a full-year, this was one of the top five topics in the minds of Germans and openly discussed on public news a good bit.  

For the German nuclear industry, it put them under a microscope and an intensive amount of review.....even though Chernobyl had nothing to do with them.  

2.  Fukushima.  This 2011 incident simply iced up the cake and was the final nail for Chancellor Merkel to push for a complete closure to nuke power.  Even for the right-of-center CDU folks.....probably half of them agreed with Merkel, and the whole of the Green/SPD Parties were in total agreement.

3.  Disposal of leftover material.  Going back to the early 1980s.....this was a major issue and the federal government found that no state (of the 16) was willing to have a disposal burial site in their region.  

Even today, I would suggest that via ARD/ZDF (the two public TV networks)....there's at least six reports a year on the disposal process and continual reminders about the 'evils' of disposal. 

So then, you ask....why is the power industry so pro-nuke power?  Generally, when it comes to forecasting and having an economic model that truly projects the cost and pay-back....nuke power is the perfect answer.  

German nuke plants were always built with a 20-year pay-back situation (where companies basically broke even), then a renewal 'pact' was put up for a 2nd twenty-year situation.....with renovation as a key element.  So in this case.....the second twenty years was the profitable period.  

With the EU's interest in stamping nuke power as 'clean'?  What'll happen in Germany?  The anti-nuke sentiment will continue, but I expect some company to come forward by the end of 2022 and apply for license....then be told 'NO' by the Green element of the government.  Then a court episode will occur.....leading to a 18-month court path....all the way to the EU.  By fall of 2023, I suspect the EU court will say to German authorities (primarily the Greens).....clear the path and approve the license for the construction.  

Somewhere around 2027....I expect the new plant (or two) to be built, and by 2028....it'll be providing electricity to the grid.  

The Green agenda?  Well....here's the chief problem.  If you say that carbon is your chief problem and lesser-used carbon in the electrical process is the answer....especially in getting the Earth's temperature down.....then nuke power is the answer.  Kinda funny in a way.....if you'd never made this carbon business a BIG deal, then you could retain the anti-nuke stance and proceed on.  

Nuke Power

 Probably one of the more interesting news stories of the past six months popped up today via N-TV (German commercial news).  The EU says it will flip a rule into play for 2022....to approve natural gas and nuclear power as 'climate-friendly' (with  conditions).

Shocking for the Germans?  For the Green Party, it creates a massive problem.

Will new nuke plants get permission to be built?  Well....I'll say this....NO current situation looks great for getting German approval, but if this rises up to the EU level, they will grant the license.  I would expect a minimum of ten years of court action to delay even the start of construction but it will eventually fall into place.

Dismantling one of Merkel's 'golden' promises?  Yeah....you could make that assessment.  

Immigration Story

 N-TV (commercial German news) brought up that around 20k Afghans are on some German list for entering Germany....if the Taliban would just allow the planes to land.

Odds of more being added by summer?  It wouldn't surprise me if the 2022 numbers were up around 70k....if the Taliban would approve the situation.  

Just anyone?  Well....no.  These are lawyers, doctors, teachers, etc.  I'd give them a higher chance of integrating and not becoming 'problems' later.  

Covid Chatter

 Ulrike Guerot wrote a piece for Welt today, and it's likely to generate a fair amount of discussion and hype.  So the subject matter?  

We are two years into the Covid era, and what you can generally say about the German government's angle of 'resolutions'?  They basically revolve around vaccinations as being 'it' (nothing much else).  Guerot even wrote the comment 'dead-end' in describing the vaccination path.  

In standing back and admiring the situation.....22 months into Covid....there's basically four paths (my opinion) to where we are today. 

First, the ban rules are designed to limit contact.  This means at stores, public functions, soccer games, discos, airplanes, subways, and schools.  The 1.5-meter social distancing situation is generally adhered to by 99-percent of Germans.

If you gaze across society....the human contact business has probably hurt a fair segment of society.  Older guys who lived alone.....walked into local pubs to socialize.  Their lives are marginalized because of the shutdowns and social destabilization.

Second, vaccination has become a 'you-gotta-do-it' situation.  The whole 2G business?  It's designed to make your life miserable enough as a non-vax guy.....that you have no choice on the matter.  The effective nature of the vaccinations?  Every day that passes....your antibody numbers diminish, and no one can say much unless you tested a guy every month.  The necessity of the booster....well, it's because your system is 'burning up' antibodies every week.  

Third, herd immunity.  If you asked the German health authorities at the federal level....they will today shy away from the phrase and refuse to comment.  For almost all of 2020....herd immunity was uttered a dozen times a week via public TV news.  The idea was at two-thirds of society being immunized, and then we'd reach a plateau of sorts.  Around October in Germany, the herd topic got dumped.  You can laugh over the full year of chatter, and how quick it just disappeared.  

Where things are headed in 2022?  Unknown, but I'm guessing that treatment strategies will finally get some discussion, and a dozen odd treatment plans will be openly accepted by the end of 2022.  More Omikron variants?  No doubt.  Year three promises to be a repeat of 2020 and 2021.