Frank-Jurgen Weise of the German Federal Office for Migration and Refugees (BAMF)......had an interview yesterday....Focus picked up the piece.
Somewhere in the middle of this chat, he kinda admits that with the current number of immigrants....roughly 660,000 are entitled to stay. Then he also admits....two-thirds probably have skills or education required for employment and might easily catch a job via their local jobs office.
Course, you would ask.....so of the 200,000 people left over....what happens?
Well....to fit into the integration gimmick, what Weise is suggesting is more integration (word-speak for job-training). That means funding, and probably twelve to twenty-four months of some type of craftsman training.
Would the German government be interested enough to train hundreds or thousands into a skill or craft that isn't highly usable? Well.....yeah.
Weise also admits that at best.....only fifteen percent of this overall 660,000 group are well qualified. So might the other eighty-five percent of the group require craftsman training as well? Well....yeah.
The curious thing here is that German craftsman training operations or schools.....are built to handle a certain number of students. They might be able to entice a former instructor who has retired to come back for a year or two, and maybe they could bulk up to handle some extra students....but half-a-million extra students?
At some point, I suspect that the Bundestag will agree to some type of ramp-up for commercialized schools and instructors. They will hand the money (probably in the range of several billion Euro) over to the states, and the states will auction off a hundred students here and a hundred students there....to be trained in some last-minute assembled class. Twelve to twenty-four months later....certify the student and dump them as finished. Who hires them? Unknown. Depending on what part of the country you live in....you might find 5-percent unemployment or 15-percent unemployment. Go figure how this would work.
With the way that things work in Germany.....there is social help up to a certain point. They will give you enough money for a bare-essentials apartment, and enough money for food. Beyond that....social welfare is fairly careful about their money. If some immigrant fell into this 'pit', it would be helpful for a couple of months but after six months of this and continued unemployment....I think most would ask about their future in Germany. A robust German economy, with job growth....is absolutely necessary for any of this immigration business to succeed.
Then you come to this final topic.....what happens in 2016? More immigrants? Another 1.1 million people arriving?
Thursday, March 17, 2016
Wednesday, March 16, 2016
Rundfunkbeitrag Woes
If you walk into a German pub and utter the phrase Rundfunkbeitrag, there will be the start of a long conversation from the group assembled about the German TV, radio and media tax....mandated upon every single German.....to the tune of 17.50 Euro per month.
It won't be a pleasant conversation. The majority are a bit frustrated over the tax. The younger the crowd, the more unpleasant the conversation will be.
Because of the direction of internet media and downloading.....the government decided in early 2013, that all household would pay 17.50.....even if they didn't have a radio, and even if their only means of television was the internet....which they would say that they were using commercial sites to watch TV...NOT state-run TV networks.
To help the case, the big guys....ARD and ZDF (the channel One and Two crowd) went to maximize their media efforts. You could get their news programs, documentaries, and movies from their web sites. To date, I've yet to hear anyone give statistics over downloading from the state-run TV empire and I suspect that it's a very small group who utilize this service.
The fight to keep mandated TV taxes in place? Well....it's mostly about a TV product that Germans over the age of forty will watch. Most people under the age of twenty-five will tell you that there's absolutely nothing of quality, and in an entire year.....they might watch three to five hours of news or weather. The value for the 17.50 Euro a month? Yeah, that's part of the story.
Well....twenty-six complaints were lodged about this broadcasting fee and it's made a path to the Federal Administrative Court in Leipzig. Fourteen arguments were presented. today. The court is put into a delicate position. They could sit there and say that without a real TV or radio in the house, and only a media connection.....a person should not be forced into a mandated TV tax.
For ARD, ZDF and the radio folks.....it's a pretty serious argument, and they may lost a significant amount of their funding if this works in court.
My humble guess? The judges have to find some gimmick to force the public to continue on with the 17.50 Euro per month.
The Zeit did a fine article over this discussion, and the general facts of the case.
One of the harsh realities in modern Germany is that radio is losing listeners. The crowd who transit into work each day by car....might still listen onto the local station for stau or accident reports. Those on public transport.....lean more toward a collection of tunes that they listen to. Some of these smaller stations....like campus stations....might have a total of a thousand listeners on a normal day.
From the collection of twenty-odd TV networks now sponsored and operated via this TV tax.....some might be unlucky enough from the 81-million residents to have only ten-thousand people viewing throughout a single evening.
My guess is that a couple of the judges will sit down and try to figure a nice way to just tell Germans to be brave and understanding....that someone needs to pay for public TV....even if the majority of Germans don't watch it.
It won't be a pleasant conversation. The majority are a bit frustrated over the tax. The younger the crowd, the more unpleasant the conversation will be.
Because of the direction of internet media and downloading.....the government decided in early 2013, that all household would pay 17.50.....even if they didn't have a radio, and even if their only means of television was the internet....which they would say that they were using commercial sites to watch TV...NOT state-run TV networks.
To help the case, the big guys....ARD and ZDF (the channel One and Two crowd) went to maximize their media efforts. You could get their news programs, documentaries, and movies from their web sites. To date, I've yet to hear anyone give statistics over downloading from the state-run TV empire and I suspect that it's a very small group who utilize this service.
The fight to keep mandated TV taxes in place? Well....it's mostly about a TV product that Germans over the age of forty will watch. Most people under the age of twenty-five will tell you that there's absolutely nothing of quality, and in an entire year.....they might watch three to five hours of news or weather. The value for the 17.50 Euro a month? Yeah, that's part of the story.
Well....twenty-six complaints were lodged about this broadcasting fee and it's made a path to the Federal Administrative Court in Leipzig. Fourteen arguments were presented. today. The court is put into a delicate position. They could sit there and say that without a real TV or radio in the house, and only a media connection.....a person should not be forced into a mandated TV tax.
For ARD, ZDF and the radio folks.....it's a pretty serious argument, and they may lost a significant amount of their funding if this works in court.
My humble guess? The judges have to find some gimmick to force the public to continue on with the 17.50 Euro per month.
The Zeit did a fine article over this discussion, and the general facts of the case.
One of the harsh realities in modern Germany is that radio is losing listeners. The crowd who transit into work each day by car....might still listen onto the local station for stau or accident reports. Those on public transport.....lean more toward a collection of tunes that they listen to. Some of these smaller stations....like campus stations....might have a total of a thousand listeners on a normal day.
From the collection of twenty-odd TV networks now sponsored and operated via this TV tax.....some might be unlucky enough from the 81-million residents to have only ten-thousand people viewing throughout a single evening.
My guess is that a couple of the judges will sit down and try to figure a nice way to just tell Germans to be brave and understanding....that someone needs to pay for public TV....even if the majority of Germans don't watch it.
When Teachers Get Foolish
Around the ninth grade for me (eons ago).....I came to some point of realizing that some of the teachers in my school....were either incompetent, not up to the task, or very limited in the field of study that they were supposed to provide. Most had good intentions and some certificate from a university....but it really didn't mean much in their educational efforts.
I didn't hold it against them. I came to realize that some lousy managers were hiring them, and keeping them in the job. Three years later, I wrapped up high school with this negative feeling of education and teachers. I came to the same belief as I did college classes.
I am reminded of this view because of a story that popped up yesterday in the Germany news.
Heinrich Peuckmann wanted folks to know that he was a former teacher of AfD (the anti-immigration party) current chief....Fauke Petry. Considering that Petry is forty years old....Peuckmann has to be at least sixty-five years old.
In Facebook commentary, he wanted folks to know that Petry....even though he provided his very best instruction....was intelligent but not wise. "With wisdom connects morality" is the quote direct from the former teacher.
Morality, for those who might want a clear definition....it's a distinction or line between good behavior and bad behavior.
Some examples of morality:
- When you invent a tax that has no real application except to change the way that people act or conduct their lives....you are on the bad side of morality.
- When you think of tax revenue in the national pot sitting there and to be used for questionable practices which might a total waste or dishonest use of the tax revenue.....you are on the bad side of morality.
- When you set up some intellectual argument and note if you don't agree with your perception or case....you are unwise or unintelligent....you are on the bad side of morality.
At some point some kid or adult reaches a stage where they view things in a slightly different manner than teachers or professors insisted upon. Right or wrong? If Socrates, Plato or Aristotle had just stayed within the lines of their teacher or mentor.....none would have gone to do much in life. Each questioned wisdom and it's attachment to life.
So, some wise advice. You may leave school and university someday, and find that your opinions, reasoning, and focus in life have met reality. Reality is like sharp stick in a balloon factory....it causes you to reflect upon what was dished out to you and if those perceptions can work in the real world. In Petry's case....it's not a pleasant picture. In her teacher's mind, it's all pleasant.
Never let your sense of morals prevent you from doing what is right. Words spoken by Isaac Asimov.
I didn't hold it against them. I came to realize that some lousy managers were hiring them, and keeping them in the job. Three years later, I wrapped up high school with this negative feeling of education and teachers. I came to the same belief as I did college classes.
I am reminded of this view because of a story that popped up yesterday in the Germany news.
Heinrich Peuckmann wanted folks to know that he was a former teacher of AfD (the anti-immigration party) current chief....Fauke Petry. Considering that Petry is forty years old....Peuckmann has to be at least sixty-five years old.
In Facebook commentary, he wanted folks to know that Petry....even though he provided his very best instruction....was intelligent but not wise. "With wisdom connects morality" is the quote direct from the former teacher.
Morality, for those who might want a clear definition....it's a distinction or line between good behavior and bad behavior.
Some examples of morality:
- When you invent a tax that has no real application except to change the way that people act or conduct their lives....you are on the bad side of morality.
- When you think of tax revenue in the national pot sitting there and to be used for questionable practices which might a total waste or dishonest use of the tax revenue.....you are on the bad side of morality.
- When you set up some intellectual argument and note if you don't agree with your perception or case....you are unwise or unintelligent....you are on the bad side of morality.
At some point some kid or adult reaches a stage where they view things in a slightly different manner than teachers or professors insisted upon. Right or wrong? If Socrates, Plato or Aristotle had just stayed within the lines of their teacher or mentor.....none would have gone to do much in life. Each questioned wisdom and it's attachment to life.
So, some wise advice. You may leave school and university someday, and find that your opinions, reasoning, and focus in life have met reality. Reality is like sharp stick in a balloon factory....it causes you to reflect upon what was dished out to you and if those perceptions can work in the real world. In Petry's case....it's not a pleasant picture. In her teacher's mind, it's all pleasant.
Never let your sense of morals prevent you from doing what is right. Words spoken by Isaac Asimov.
"Raging River" Crew
The Greeks, the Serbians, and the folks from Macedonia will eventually get tired of this fake humanitarian game.....arrest some of the Germans....and hold them for a while.
Chancellor Merkel will have to pay them off in some fashion.....like they paid the Turks.
"Raging River" Story
Two days ago, Channel One (ARD) ran some piece on the Balkans Route and some German activists who are there to help lead the immigrants to a new trail.
The video of the piece showed about a thousand immigrants at what the journalists called a "raging river", and attempting to cross the "raging river".
I sat there watching this clip. I went back this morning.....watching it two more times.
Basically, it's a stream that comes up to your knee (if you were a short guy). For me, based on looking at the guys and gals in the video....it's just NOT that deep. If I were in the stream, it'd still be two or three inches below my knee.
"Raging river"?
I often wish some geography or science wiz was standing there at ARD....making sure that the right phrases or words were used. I know....."raging river" sounds nifty and harsh. If it's a stream that deep which six-year-old kids might be playing in.....well.....it's not a "raging river".
The helper German dimwits at Idomeni aren't really helping much. They are irking the Macedonian and Greek officials who are trying to shut down the Balkans trail. They will eventually lead these poor people to some stream that will be a meter deep and some kids will be swept away. Then you come to view the news media in the background....probably over 20 people taking pictures and video....so it was more of a news media event than anything else.
What happens now that the thousand and the helper German dimwits have crossed the Macedonian border? Well....in a couple of days....they will reach the Serbian border. The Serbians will know their tactic.....view the action.....probably hold back some folks, and arrest these German helper folks. Merkel will have to go down on one knee to ask the Serbians to release the naive helpers, and some fake news media blitz will occur over the evil Serbians holding helpers. Eventually.....everyone will give up on fences and just let the immigrants make way to Germany, with 100,000 a month making the trail.
Maybe they could have used the word "raging stream" or "raging creek", but it'd just not be the same type of identification that journalists enjoy.
The video of the piece showed about a thousand immigrants at what the journalists called a "raging river", and attempting to cross the "raging river".
I sat there watching this clip. I went back this morning.....watching it two more times.
Basically, it's a stream that comes up to your knee (if you were a short guy). For me, based on looking at the guys and gals in the video....it's just NOT that deep. If I were in the stream, it'd still be two or three inches below my knee.
"Raging river"?
I often wish some geography or science wiz was standing there at ARD....making sure that the right phrases or words were used. I know....."raging river" sounds nifty and harsh. If it's a stream that deep which six-year-old kids might be playing in.....well.....it's not a "raging river".
The helper German dimwits at Idomeni aren't really helping much. They are irking the Macedonian and Greek officials who are trying to shut down the Balkans trail. They will eventually lead these poor people to some stream that will be a meter deep and some kids will be swept away. Then you come to view the news media in the background....probably over 20 people taking pictures and video....so it was more of a news media event than anything else.
What happens now that the thousand and the helper German dimwits have crossed the Macedonian border? Well....in a couple of days....they will reach the Serbian border. The Serbians will know their tactic.....view the action.....probably hold back some folks, and arrest these German helper folks. Merkel will have to go down on one knee to ask the Serbians to release the naive helpers, and some fake news media blitz will occur over the evil Serbians holding helpers. Eventually.....everyone will give up on fences and just let the immigrants make way to Germany, with 100,000 a month making the trail.
Maybe they could have used the word "raging stream" or "raging creek", but it'd just not be the same type of identification that journalists enjoy.
Tuesday, March 15, 2016
Command Norbert Blum?
Officially, on the books....you talk to any authority in Austria, Serbia, Hungry, Greece and Macedonia....the Balkins Route for the immigrant path to Germany is shut down, period.
So, there's been some chaos in the past couple of days, and this new group has emerged from the shadows....calling itself the "Command Norbert Blum"....which has distributed maps and gone out to help groups cross over from Greece into Macedonia. No one says much if they will copcat this, and set up another group at the Serbian border (shut down), but I would assume they will help people cross it.
Who is Norbert Blum? He was a German CDU political figure of the 1980/90s era. He's still around today....retired....about 80 years old....and takes up some minor charity work. He denies he's behind this and they are simply using his name for this episode.
A German group? I sat last night and watched a ARD (channel One, the public-run German network)....and they covered part of this movement of refugees with the 'help'. These 'helpers'....are German....young people....mid-20s from what I can figure.
Yesterday's achievement? Around a thousand refugees crossed over some river that would not typically be the path to Macedonia. Some of the info that journalists have shown involves anonymous leaflets.
Right now....if you questioned anyone on the fence business and the attempt to hold back the refugees....it's fragile at best. Any kind of major effort....by the refugees themselves or by German civilian assistance....would help create a new enthusiasm and another wave.
If it turns out that a dozen-odd German characters are in Greece and helping funnel refugees up through the locked-down border? I think all heck will break out with the right-wing types and harsh words over this 'humanitarian-sneaking' business. The news media might even be stupid enough to portray these guys as heroes.
So, there's been some chaos in the past couple of days, and this new group has emerged from the shadows....calling itself the "Command Norbert Blum"....which has distributed maps and gone out to help groups cross over from Greece into Macedonia. No one says much if they will copcat this, and set up another group at the Serbian border (shut down), but I would assume they will help people cross it.
Who is Norbert Blum? He was a German CDU political figure of the 1980/90s era. He's still around today....retired....about 80 years old....and takes up some minor charity work. He denies he's behind this and they are simply using his name for this episode.
A German group? I sat last night and watched a ARD (channel One, the public-run German network)....and they covered part of this movement of refugees with the 'help'. These 'helpers'....are German....young people....mid-20s from what I can figure.
Yesterday's achievement? Around a thousand refugees crossed over some river that would not typically be the path to Macedonia. Some of the info that journalists have shown involves anonymous leaflets.
Right now....if you questioned anyone on the fence business and the attempt to hold back the refugees....it's fragile at best. Any kind of major effort....by the refugees themselves or by German civilian assistance....would help create a new enthusiasm and another wave.
If it turns out that a dozen-odd German characters are in Greece and helping funnel refugees up through the locked-down border? I think all heck will break out with the right-wing types and harsh words over this 'humanitarian-sneaking' business. The news media might even be stupid enough to portray these guys as heroes.
Tough Politics in Baden-Wurttemberg
If you look at the major newspapers of Germany today....the Frankfurt Allgemeine for example....the Baden-Wurttemberg election has put some harsh reality into the outcome.
There are only two coalition options on the table.
A: The Greens team up with the CDU. The chief thing that the CDU wants is for the Greens (who lead in the election) to retire their chief....Winfried Kretschmann. If you were looking for the lead and authority of the party in the state.....it's Kretschmann.
B: The CDU (second-place winner) teams with the SPD and FDP. As of this morning, it's absolute fact that the SPD will refuse such an option, period.
Why did the SPD take the refusal? I think they were looking ahead at 2017, the national election, and the trending in Baden-Wurttemberg for the Green Party. Kretschmann is the image and driving force of the Green Party in the state. If anything comes to push Kretschmann out.....it's a positive and helps to funnel some voters back over to the SPD cause.
At this point, and for the next ten days....I think the Greens will sit around and discuss life and the local Green Party in a non-Kretschmann era. If you go the B-W web-site for the Greens....it's mostly hype over Kretschmann. You don't see any secondary people that stand out.
Some would look at this and say that the Green Party success in Stuttgart and Baden-Wurttemberg is mostly a one-trick pony (Kretschmann). In some ways, you have to wonder if that assumption is true.
Maybe in this case of Baden-Wurttemberg.....coming in first, is going to lead onto a spiral episode.
There are only two coalition options on the table.
A: The Greens team up with the CDU. The chief thing that the CDU wants is for the Greens (who lead in the election) to retire their chief....Winfried Kretschmann. If you were looking for the lead and authority of the party in the state.....it's Kretschmann.
B: The CDU (second-place winner) teams with the SPD and FDP. As of this morning, it's absolute fact that the SPD will refuse such an option, period.
Why did the SPD take the refusal? I think they were looking ahead at 2017, the national election, and the trending in Baden-Wurttemberg for the Green Party. Kretschmann is the image and driving force of the Green Party in the state. If anything comes to push Kretschmann out.....it's a positive and helps to funnel some voters back over to the SPD cause.
At this point, and for the next ten days....I think the Greens will sit around and discuss life and the local Green Party in a non-Kretschmann era. If you go the B-W web-site for the Greens....it's mostly hype over Kretschmann. You don't see any secondary people that stand out.
Some would look at this and say that the Green Party success in Stuttgart and Baden-Wurttemberg is mostly a one-trick pony (Kretschmann). In some ways, you have to wonder if that assumption is true.
Maybe in this case of Baden-Wurttemberg.....coming in first, is going to lead onto a spiral episode.
The Berlin Tango
In an amusing way.....the path to the fall state election in Berlin started yesterday. Thus the fight is on.....with the 'defenders' of Merkel against the 'evil' expanding AfD empire (cynically spoken of course).
RBB (state-run Berlin TV network) carried a commentary by Olaf Sundermeyer explaining why 'crusaders' must rise to the occasion to defend the Merkel policy.
As Sundermeyer points out....this growth for AfD comes from three basic ingredients: (1) they were ignored by general political establishment and news media, (2) they were marginalized whenever discussions were held, and (3) a healthy dose of demonizing was tossed on the anti-immigration crowd when all else failed.
Sundermeyer does hit on the key to the AfD success....they talk on the essential topics of failed integration, crime, and the crisis created.
The word "misanthropic" gets brought up. I had to go back and review the word because it's not a common term. So, misanthropic generally means an unwilling nature to mix with other folks. It could also mean difficulty in communicating, being somewhat unfriendly, and antisocial.
When xenophobic and misanthropic get used.....it works up to the point where the smiling intellectural can stand and point at others. Then some wise guy from the other side stands and asks why you couldn't use the same words on the intellectual crowd itself (the finger-pointers).
Berlin has developed some topics where the public will be negative about the accomplishments (or lack) from various political factions.
Crime gets brought up on a daily basis in Berlin. It's small-time stuff like pick-pocketing....breaking into apartments....regular street crime. Yes, there's occasional assaults which the local newspapers will discuss as an escalation over what people used to see....at least before the wall went down. Blame? It gets shifted around....young punks, East Europeans, drug trade with North Africans, etc.
An anarchy theme now exists in a neighborhood of Berlin. Locals will be split on this. Some will say it's just a bunch of young people....doing some stupid things....likely a combination of frustration over politics and some idealistic fantasy. Some will say it's an out-of-control situation with a tendency to only get worse.
Berlin is this magnet now for tourism. Twenty-eight million people came and stayed at least one night in Berlin in 2014. In the months of June, July and August....there are tourists everywhere. Hotel growth is noted every single year. For the locals, it's a plus and minus. There's probably a hundred thousand folks now tied to the tourists in the city and happily employed. It generates tons of revenue for the business side, and tax-revenue for the city itself. On the negative side.....it means heavy traffic in the summer and an odd worry about some mishap occurring which would trigger tourists to cancel. This is a city that you don't want a Koln-riot type situation to develop and suggest no-go areas exist in the heart of Berlin.
To confront the AfD and this fall election period.....you have to have some positive message that the public generally believes in. They need to feel that crime isn't a big deal....that integration is actively happening with the massive bulk of incoming immigrants, and that there is no crisis.
The problem with the mix of perfect conditions to halt the AfD expansion into Berlin politics is that no matter where you look around Berlin....crime exists, crisis-like issues are a public sight, and public perception of integration is that it's like the weather in Germany....it changes every day.
The real approaching storm in Berlin? Here's the deal....at best...the AfD will get around 10-to-20 percent of the local vote in the fall. This subtraction of numbers from the normal voting pattern (CDU, SPD, Greens and Linke Party)....means that they all drift downward, and these really odd coalitions end up having to be formed....with a fundamentally weakened state government the final result because no one can work with the AfD. Go imagine some kind of loss where the CDU's only reasonable option is to partner with the Linke Party.
So, that's the poker game being played out for the next couple of months within the state of Berlin itself.
RBB (state-run Berlin TV network) carried a commentary by Olaf Sundermeyer explaining why 'crusaders' must rise to the occasion to defend the Merkel policy.
As Sundermeyer points out....this growth for AfD comes from three basic ingredients: (1) they were ignored by general political establishment and news media, (2) they were marginalized whenever discussions were held, and (3) a healthy dose of demonizing was tossed on the anti-immigration crowd when all else failed.
Sundermeyer does hit on the key to the AfD success....they talk on the essential topics of failed integration, crime, and the crisis created.
The word "misanthropic" gets brought up. I had to go back and review the word because it's not a common term. So, misanthropic generally means an unwilling nature to mix with other folks. It could also mean difficulty in communicating, being somewhat unfriendly, and antisocial.
When xenophobic and misanthropic get used.....it works up to the point where the smiling intellectural can stand and point at others. Then some wise guy from the other side stands and asks why you couldn't use the same words on the intellectual crowd itself (the finger-pointers).
Berlin has developed some topics where the public will be negative about the accomplishments (or lack) from various political factions.
Crime gets brought up on a daily basis in Berlin. It's small-time stuff like pick-pocketing....breaking into apartments....regular street crime. Yes, there's occasional assaults which the local newspapers will discuss as an escalation over what people used to see....at least before the wall went down. Blame? It gets shifted around....young punks, East Europeans, drug trade with North Africans, etc.
An anarchy theme now exists in a neighborhood of Berlin. Locals will be split on this. Some will say it's just a bunch of young people....doing some stupid things....likely a combination of frustration over politics and some idealistic fantasy. Some will say it's an out-of-control situation with a tendency to only get worse.
Berlin is this magnet now for tourism. Twenty-eight million people came and stayed at least one night in Berlin in 2014. In the months of June, July and August....there are tourists everywhere. Hotel growth is noted every single year. For the locals, it's a plus and minus. There's probably a hundred thousand folks now tied to the tourists in the city and happily employed. It generates tons of revenue for the business side, and tax-revenue for the city itself. On the negative side.....it means heavy traffic in the summer and an odd worry about some mishap occurring which would trigger tourists to cancel. This is a city that you don't want a Koln-riot type situation to develop and suggest no-go areas exist in the heart of Berlin.
To confront the AfD and this fall election period.....you have to have some positive message that the public generally believes in. They need to feel that crime isn't a big deal....that integration is actively happening with the massive bulk of incoming immigrants, and that there is no crisis.
The problem with the mix of perfect conditions to halt the AfD expansion into Berlin politics is that no matter where you look around Berlin....crime exists, crisis-like issues are a public sight, and public perception of integration is that it's like the weather in Germany....it changes every day.
The real approaching storm in Berlin? Here's the deal....at best...the AfD will get around 10-to-20 percent of the local vote in the fall. This subtraction of numbers from the normal voting pattern (CDU, SPD, Greens and Linke Party)....means that they all drift downward, and these really odd coalitions end up having to be formed....with a fundamentally weakened state government the final result because no one can work with the AfD. Go imagine some kind of loss where the CDU's only reasonable option is to partner with the Linke Party.
So, that's the poker game being played out for the next couple of months within the state of Berlin itself.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)