Sitting and Sipping Coffee

Today, I accompanied the wife to one of her three grocery trips per week (each with a different sale going on and she heavily discount-shops).  

For this particular grocery (in Wiesbaden)....I started back in the summer of 2018, and typically would go to the bakery at the entrance....sip coffee and have a piece of cheesecake.  Back around December of 2020....because state Covid ban-rules.....the sitting area was totally shutdown and roped-off (the infection rate then was up around 150 per 100k, per 7 days).

I walked in today....with the 7-day infection rate at 581....the bakery is totally open, with the sitting area wide open.  Three times the rate of January 2021.  

I just stood there....shaking my head....the ban-rules change month to month, and make little sense.  Harsh one period.....eased-off one month.....harsh with reason.....eased-off with no reason.  

Smart Phone Numbers

 Back in the summer of 2020....someone sat down and figured up the number of smart-phone owners in Germany.  The current tally?  60.74 million users of smart-phones.  Population total? 83 million.  

So, are there actually 60.74 million people with smart-phones?  Well....no.  

If you went to business people (even my wife and her job as a import/export clerk).....she's required to have a office smart-phone.  All of the 15 employees in the business front of her company.....carry a personal smart-phone, and a business smart-phone.

On top of that....probably one German guy/gal out of every hundred.....has a second phone to communicate with his/her 'affair-friend'.  You know....the phone that the husband or wife doesn't know about and they keep hidden away.

Kids now with phones?  If you stood on the village bus at 7:15 AM....you'd come to note out of sixty kids on the bus....making its way into Wiesbaden......probably 90-percent of the kids over eight years old....have a smart-phone.  

My wife had a co-worker/associate who went all the way up to 2017....with no smart-phone.  Then one day....the boss mandated a phone, and he went to get the cheapest marginally functional flip-phone possible.  He could send messages or take calls.....nothing else. 

So if you gauge the numbers business (considering 83 million residents, and 80-percent of them over the age of fifteen).....I'd take a guess that around fifty-million actually have one smart-phone in their possession.  

TV Show From Last Night

 Last night on ARD (German public TV, Channel One)....they ran the Hart Aber Fair public chat forum ('Hard But Fair).  I like the show because they try to have opposing viewpoints and the moderator will force questions if the guy/gal is giving a marginal answer.  

Topic?  Well...is the Covid 2G situation (either you are vaxed-up or recovered, to walk into discount shops around Germany).  The non-vax folks are forbidden entry.  The idea was....you'd shape them up to force into the vaccination.  If you look at actual numbers since that 'order' was given.....it didn't turn out much on higher numbers, but certainly lessened profit for shops, with less customers showing up.

So in the midst of this forum (live, I should note)....they had Professor-Doctor Carsten Watzl talking about things now, and how this will trend for Christmas 2022.  It was NOT encouraging news.

In simple blunt words....the doctor went to forecast that Covid 'doom' is something now to expect every winter.  He even made the comment...."Next winter will look like this as well."

If you were a German watching this.....you had to be fairly distressed and bitter.  The term....repeated torture....probably fits as well.  

Most all German shops (from electronics, to clothing)....counted on a successful Christmas season....to ensure the bottom line for the entire year.  They could survive a single bad season with no whining or complaints.   A second season, or a projection of a decade of dismal profits?  They can't survive in this type of environment.  

I've made a few trips into Mainz and Wiesbaden for this Christmas season.  I have zero interest in standing in a line to be 'audited' by some entry-level guy to shop at a store.  It wouldn't matter if this were five or ten minutes.  

Even if you make into a shop....the minute I hear a cough within thirty feet of where I'm standing....I'm uncomfortable and head to the exit.  Maybe it was just a sore throat cough....maybe it was a cold cough, or maybe it was a Covid cough.  I don't care to qualify the damn cough.

I'm skeptical of the 2G gimmick and would be more assured if everyone inside had been tested in the past twelve hours.

What happens when we enter November 2022?  It's anyone's guess but I would imagine doom, despair, dashed hopes and misery will follow.  

Last night, my wife (German in nature) and I ended up at the Wiesbaden Christmas Market.  We decided to venture to the forbidden zone (where food and beverages are sold).  To enter....you have to be 2G.   There's guys there to survey your 'pass'.  Hired-up security?  Yeah.  I'd guess that the city has at least fifty folks hired and wearing some type of 'security' vest.....to attempt to make the 2G Christmas Market work.

So here's the 'success' I saw.  First, in the non-food area.....sales and customers are simply not there.  I'd guess at best.....they are making 50-percent of a normal typical season.  Second, even in the food/beverage area.....it was pretty thin. To get a gluhwein....I just walked up (no line) and in 30 seconds had a cup.  This was around 6 PM, and there were maybe 40-percent of the normal crowd hanging out.  Finally, in this food/beverage area....about 99 percent of the folks had no masks on....while sipping their beverage or eating.  Frankly, I was skeptical of the safeness.

Perhaps Doctor Watzl was right.....we just need to reach a new level of acceptance....that Covid is never going away.  

The Problem With Protests/Demonstrations

 I grew in rural Alabama....in a farming community, and it wasn't until I'd joined the Air Force, then gone off to West Germany in 1978....that I witnessed my first demonstration.  

The first episode?  It was a early summer episode against the NPD (neo-Nazi group)...in Frankfurt.  There were probably a couple of these in the summer/fall of 1978.  

Over the years, I've personally seen anti-capitalist situations, anti-airport demonstrations, anti-fur protests, environmental protests, pro-migrant/immigrations demonstrations, anti-war parades, agricultural protests, and even a couple of salary protests.  

Watching from a distance, just as an observer....it's usually a 'send-a-message' and walking experience for folks....mostly (99-percent) peaceful.  

That's the general trend for these protests/demonstrations.....most start and end in some way as being 'peaceful'.  

Where you have the violence or physical attacks?

Out of a group of one-hundred attendees....most are just regular people out to 'send-a-message'.  But, from that group....there's probably three to five who are people 'consumed' by the passion of the moment and could easily get out of control.  I'd compare it to the crowd who attend a WWE-wrestling event....most can sit there, enjoying the 'action', and a handful actually want to participate in the 'action'.

If you stand and observe enough of the protest crowds...especially the anti-capitalists, there's various elements spread out in a protest with the assigned task of presenting violence (setting fires, assaulting the police, rock-throwing, etc).  Aggravators would be the term I'd use for them.  They usually ensure video-cameras are in the right place and capture the shots....which then are sent to news groups.  You see that in the US, and in Europe.

Once you grasp the aggravator point....the question is....who is sponsoring or running the protest?  Maybe the 99 out of the hundred believe this is a genuine protest situation, with no outside influence.....but the more you view this situation....the less trust you have that it's a pure righteousness situation.  

The guy making the speeches....the kid in the crowd who hypes folks in a certain pattern....the lady who is handing out placards to carry?  All have some agenda or sponsor tied to the situation.

In my heart, I still see these protests/demonstrations as having some minor benefit for society....it's their way to 'send-a-message'.  The problem is....whose message are we talking about?  

Two New Vaccines Shortly To Arrive

 Novavax and Valneva.

Both in the past month have been hyped in the German news media.  So the difference between these and the current vaccines?  Well....these two were designed in the method of traditional flu vaccines....meaning they use dead Covid cells.

Among the non-vax crowd.....there's more positive talk over the two, and the traditional methods of flu vaccines. So there's some feeling that maybe half of the non-vax folks would sign up for one of these two.

Approval?  Well.....Valneva (French company) is still testing and has yet to apply for EU approval.  Their 'hint' is that it's coming shortly (probably meaning in early 2022 when they ask for approval).  Production?  If you do the estimates with them....the product might be delivered by late spring 2022.

On Novavax?  US-company, and the chatter is that the EU will announce approval before the end of 2021.  Production would start....maybe delivery by mid-spring?  

The fact that you don't require the ultra-freezing that the current vaccines mandate?  Yeah...that might be a major selling point for both vaccines with private doctors.

Changing the vaccination rate?  It's simply chatter and no facts.  I might agree that from  the non-vax crowd....traditional flu vaccines haven't been a standing issue.  

So, go and expect around March of 2022....the hyped-up chatter of soon-to-arrive new vaccines and the government pushing them as much as possible.  

How Bad Are German Retailers Suffering?

 Well....this got brought up via regional Hessen news (HR).

The hype is this....up in Fulda, the local Chamber of Commerce sat down and talked to shops.  What they say is that 80-percent of shops in the area are reporting a loss in sales (it's not where it was in 2019....prior to Covid).

On loss of customers?  About 90-percent of the shops say there is a decrease in customers.

All of this leading back to the 2G (vaxed-up or recovered) situation?  That's the general talk.

What's being suggested?  2G, by some folks, was a tool to force or encourage non-vaxers to get vaccinated.  The Chamber of Commerce is saying this was wrong to attach it to them (the shops).

I don't think the politicians or the virus-experts really thought much over the pain/suffering of the commerce world.  Tax revenue being less?  If folks aren't spending the money in the brick-and-mortar shops.....it's likely going to the internet world (Amazon).  Tax will still be collected but it'll lead to more brick-and-mortar establishments asking if the risk/reward is worth the effort.  

Inflation Chatter

 I sat and watched a business update via N-TV this morning.  

Rate of inflation on wholesale items?  Since November of 2020?  16.6-percent higher.

If you were wondering....highest increase since they started in 1962 collecting this kind of data (West German days). 

Bad indicator?  Yeah.

If you go to any middle-class German and bring up the cost of living....they all have a story to tell about electrical costs.....fuel-oil or natural gas costs....gasoline costs.....and just general grocery costs.

My View On the Anti-Corina Protests in Germany

 Four observations:

First, maybe in a handful of cities....it gets up into several thousand to 10,000, but in the vast number of non-metro locations....these protests consist of maybe 300 to 500 folks (in some cases, even into the dozens).

Second, most people would not even be aware of these protests....if public TV (Channel One/Two) didn't cover them.  When they do cover them....there's always an attempt to interview people, and 90-percent refuse to talk to the public TV news crowd.....even in some cases....uttering the phrase 'lying press'.  The public press then includes the refusal request, and includes the chatter of 'lying press' in the finished product you watch.  If public news just quit sending crews out.....the fascination among politicians or regular people watching....might end in a brief period.

Third, politicians and political news analysts believe every single anti-Covid protests needs to be 'cancelled' or hindered.  'Nothing good of this can come' is the quote that I'd inject into this.  The suggestion is continually put into reports that while the majority of these are peaceful.....there is 'turmoil brewing'.  You (as the viewer) are then left to wonder.....where is the turmoil, and how would a regular person (just out for a walk) notice such turmoil?

Fourth, if there is worry or turmoil going on with this crowd....you have to wonder if the politicians feel the same way about the 'Fridays for the Future' crowd, or the environmental folks, or the anti-capitalists out of Hamburg.  

The Germans have a short paragraph in the Constitution which basically says you always have the right to protest, but it has to be 'organized'.  This tends to mean.....some guy applies for a protest-parade and says 750 people will walk from x-point in the city to y-point (usually a 30 minute walk).  Cops get the request.....then in most cases (unless there's five or six requests for the same day/time), they approve it.

Then the cops provide a escort.  I've stood and watched probably ten protests in my life and at a minimum.....there's usually ten police folks to manage the lesser episodes.  On a couple of these.....there might have been a hundred police trying to maintain an orderly protest parade.

As for these anti-ban-rule protests getting participants hyped-up?  Well....it's the same way if 25,000 showed up for a soccer game, or 5,000 folks showed up for a heavy-metal concert, or 1,000 screaming juveniles showed up on a Friday protests for Greta's cause.  All of these lead to people being hyped-up.

In the end......you allow the protests to occur, which gives some hype for ARD/ZDF to cover and suggest a violent trend will occur, which hypes up the political folks a good bit to say 'we will not be intimidated' and then give some rambling 9-minute interview for the nightly press to cover.  One feeds another, then feeds another, and then another.  Yeah, it's as silly as it sounds.  

As for the question....how many protest movements now exist in Germany....across the sixteen states?  If you started counting....using everything from the past five years, I'd take a guess that over fifty different protest movements exist.  Some are regional....some are just within a city itself.....a few have become national in nature.

On my Brown-shirt or RAF 'index' (comparing against the 1920/1930s or 1970s).....anything rising above a three?  No.   Other than this one shooting of the politician up in Kassel from a couple of years ago....it's nothing that dramatic other than verbal threats being made occasionally.  I do agree....lot of screaming going on with the protest folks....non-compliance with the police...etc.

Adding to this mess.....who leads the crowd? That's a funny thing...it's related to social media, and I'd just say that it looks like a 'figurehead' guy, and that he has some non-German giving him ideas/suggestions.  So, you have a large group of people who want to believe in something, and some non-German segment giving them directions.  All makes for chaos in the end.