If Poland's PM (Tusk) Had To Leave

 It's a silly suggestion.  I noted several folks on Twitter this AM (Poles) who began to ask...if he (Tusk) had to leave....where to?

The answer in 99-percent of commentary...Brussels (Belgium).  The topic ends up being some funny statement that the EU would have to direct Belgium to accept him....while Poland works up prosecution-paperwork....which Belgium likely responds 'hell-no'.

I paused over this BS chatter.  The problem is....the hundred-odd people who are connected to the PM or his personal staff....they would also be in some prosecution paperwork, and in a fragile mindset....might ask....can we go to Belgium as well?

In the end, as these public-square chats go on....you could have 10,000 Poles in a disturbing mindset....that they picked the wrong agenda to sign up for, and staying in Poland is possibly not an option.  Belgium accepting the whole crowd?  I doubt it.  So the question is....does Germany, Spain, Italy and France step up, and do the right thing in opening up a 'status'?

Oddly, a week ago....no one had such thoughts.

Four Observations Over Poland (since yesterday)

 1.   President of Poland gave a 'talk' this AM....looking over the text.

He stated that the problem that Poland is facing is no longer merely a political dispute but a systemic and fundamental crisis. 

He then suggested that the political conflict has gone to some extent to tearing families apart, destroying communities and threatening the very foundations of the Polish state. 

Then there's a sentence or two....that EU law...comes second to Polish law.

2.  It has come out....that the President and VP signed a document....probably going back 6 months, that if either were 'removed'....that the paper granted the 'head' of the Polish Supreme Court as the authority replacing them.  It doesn't appear that anyone from the Tusk side was aware of the paperwork.

Legal?  So far....the Constitution allows for such transfer of power.

This leads one to wonder....did they already know of coup plans back in the spring of 2026?

3.  It just makes you wonder....who guided Tusk and 'associates' to this coup idea?  

I doubt that this invented via the EU.  Putin-folks?   CIA-folks?  

4.  Last night....the Tusk-inserted new 'chief' of the Polish Supreme court....Korwin-Piotrowska....gave a interview with some prime-time TV moderator.

She noted as the President entered the building....getting past the police barricade: "The President intended to trample us. I made a hand gesture to greet him, and Mr. President charged at me with his entire body, started pushing us away, using brutal force."

I might agree with the description....she's a light-weight (maybe 110 pounds).  But the rest of the story....she didn't greet him down with the police group.

These TV interviews that she's given....aren't exactly helping to sell the 'brand' or message.

3 Nov 2026: Germany/Europe: 4 Stories

 1.  Study done on German social pension contributions by 2035....probably going up 51-percent.  For an upper-class technician German....figure in the 2,000 to 3,000 Euro a year extra.

Probably will be a fair amount of hostility over the increase.

2.  Two housing companies in Berlin entered into a deal with the city....building x-amount of housing....to be dedicated to lower-income families.  Well....they failed to deliver....case went to court.  

Court agreed....damages in the 1.8-million Euro range.

3  Charges filed against 3 individuals....attempting to damage the Chancellor's private plane.  Journalists identify the three....as environmentalists.  Court reviewing the charges.  Could be some jail-time.

4.  Some fear starting up....Christmas markets open in 3 weeks.  Fear centers on drone-attacks being possible. There was already fear of car-attacks on the markets, and weapon-attacks.

Seven Observations Over Poland (Since Yesterday)

 1 For a typical average Pole....it's confusing.  If you were a pro-Tusk gal/guy....you get your news via a pro-Tusk source....which means no one utters 'coup'.  If you were a pro-Nawracki guy/gal....you get your news via a pro-Nawrocki source, which means 'coup' gets uttered in every 4th sentence.  If you got you news via the BBC or ARD (German public TV)....you get about 30 seconds of 'something'....which might discuss a right-wing conspiracy (against Tusk).  

Oddly, a lot of commentary/video exists on Twitter/X, triggering folks to ask stupid questions.

2.  President Nawrocki this AM....suggesting that the Tusk-crew are resorting to blackmail?  Yeah....he suggested it.

3.  Police resorting to a question-template....when given questionable orders....are asking police-leadership for a paper-copy of the order (signed).  Bad sign on trust.

4.  Just about everything in the crisis/chaos....revolves around the Constitution....what it says, and what it doesn't say.

It might be correct to say....it does NOT benefit Tusk, but he doesn't have the votes to change or update the Constitution.

Oddly, the EU is trying to suggest guidelines or changes....but it lacks a Constitution entirely and has little power to push anything.

5.  This suggestion that the fall 2027 Poland parliamentary election might be cancelled?  BS.

Power to cancel it....can only come from the President....NOT Tusk.

Tusk could stage a no-confidence vote and have an early-election....but at this point....it doesn't benefit him or his party.  

Tusk supreme court inventing a law out of thin-air....to remove Nawrocki as President?   This is probably the only angle to suggest....but you'd invite massive crowds/chaos, and trigger questions around the EU about the 'trigger'.

6.  Some crazy folks are suggesting a counter-coup....to the coup, with other folks suggesting a counter-counter-coup...while others are suggesting a counter-counter-counter-coup.

7.  In viewing the chaos....you have to wonder what Putin is motivated to do at this point.  Should he bring down the Nawrocki gov't or the Tusk-coalition?  Should he bring both down?  Should he do nothing?

Five Things I Expect To Occur In Germany By 2035

 1.  I expect the sugar tax going onto sodas....to be extended to foods/candies/sweets.  At some point, I expect a push for just a plain sugar tax on bulk sugar by itself.

2.  I expect a E-scooter regulation to be mandated....with a age requirement (likely to be 16 or above).

3.  I expect a age mandate to be established for all streaming-video networks offered in Germany (best guess, age 16 minimum).

4.  I expect the national voting age to be lowered to age 16.

5.  I expect the AfD Party (unsuccessfully) to push for a IQ test on incoming migrants, and a minimum score to get 'status'.  Part of the negativity of this...will circle back to 10-percent of Germans not meeting the minimum.  

Looking Ahead At The 20th

 From Saturday evening's looting/'bad-boy' behavior.....there's a fair amount of hostility brewing around Frankfurt.  This AM....there's a discussion to start up from Frankfurt-City level, and Hessen-state level...to ban the next demonstration date (20 Nov).

There is such a thing in Germany as the right to assemble/protest.....however, you have to establish your location/walk with the police and basically get their permission.  In most cases that I've noted...police rarely turn down a protest march....but they may require it to be along a certain route (mostly over safety concerns)

What likely comes out of the talk?  I would imagine a protest will be allowed on the 20th by the Gen-Z crowd....with a time limit of x-number of hours (probably shutting down by 5 PM).  There's likely a police-order existing after 5 PM....if you gather and misbehave....you end up detained and cited.

Gen-Z folks being 'used' by the pro-break-in folks?  Well....there are two groups in the mix.  

On the legal side?   There is such a thing as Breach of the Peace (Landfriedensbruch, § 125 StGB), which basically says participating in violent crowds or riots that endanger public safety could carry the  penalties of a fine,  or up to 3 years in prison (or 6 months to 10 years in aggravated cases).

So you could be viewed by forty different cameras....caught throwing a rock at a policeman....get detained and dragged into a court....facing a year in prison very easily.  That's just for throwing a rock and missing the cop.  Actually hitting him?  You could end up with five to ten years.

EU Rights? Yes, or No

 I noted in social commentary today....the question came up...does the EU have a constitution?

I spent around 30 minutes reading over this, and the 'answer'.

NO, there is NO EU constitution.

There was an attempt around 2004/2005...basically, the idea was...the EU would draft up one, and each 'state' would vote to accept it.

Right off the bat...vote came in France and Netherlands....both failing.  Summer of 2005....the whole idea got dumped, and has never come up again.

I sat last night....some interview with a EU representative...trying to talk over Poland and saying that the EU requires certain procedures/processes with a EU member's Supreme Court.  It stuck out in my mind today...wondering...where such EU power exists.  Well...there is no such expectation or 'power'.

What rights you, or your company, or your dog have.....is based strictly off your home-country.  If you hauled off to Greece or Ireland....you basically get a 'free' way to rights of that country.

The one impression I get...a lot of journalists since Saturday....seem to be hyped-up over the EU and talking rights....but it's basically BS.  

German Police Penion While Injured On Duty?

I looked it up today....roughly in the range of 2,000 to 3,500 Euro a month...for a Stadtpolizist (city/municipal or state police officer) who is a Beamter, injured on duty (Dienstunfall), and forced into medical retirement (Dienstunfähigkeit) due to it. 

Exact level?  Depends on rank, stage (Stufe), years of service, age, family status, the specific Bundesland (rules and pay tables differ), and how the accident is classified (by a police board exam).

Years ago, in my military years....I worked with a American guy who spent 2 years building his case for a medical-retirement. It's not a easy path.

So in these riots....as you get injuried....in each case, the guy/gal is taken to a hospital, and documents are collected.  Maybe one riot....maybe five or six riots....but eventually, you present your case for early retirement.