It's one of those German stories that leaves a bad taste in your mouth.
It was reported today by The Welt....the German government gave money to the Clinton Foundation....at some point between July and October. Five million dollars (4 million Euro roughly).
Reason? Limited details....related strictly to environmental work apparently.
So I dug into the story. It came via a federal grant from the German Environmental Agency. It's run by a SPD member....so the odds are that Merkel herself didn't know about the grant. Did the chief of the SPD Party (Gabriel) know? Unknown. The minister in charge of this agency wouldn't have had to brief Merkel or Gabriel.
So unfairness to this reporting? No. You can look up the statistics (I did in July time frame).....roughly seven to eight percent of what they take in....actually goes to charity work. The rest goes to office rent, operational costs, travel of the Foundation members, and salaries. Yeah....they consume a minimum of ninety percent of their money without any affect on charity concepts.
Did the German Environmental Agency know that percentage? I seriously doubt it.
Legal Insurrection did a complete write-up of the episode, and their angle or question was....did this have to do with campaign funding? No. What was said that they were giving this money NOT for campaign money.....but it was related to the work done by the Clinton Foundation over the International Climate Initiative.
The problem here, is that the more you look at this....you just to ask other questions. Was this the ONLY payment that the German government made over the past ten years? Were there other payments? How much was forwarded to the Clinton Foundation? Was there some favor anticipated or expected from this?
The odds that public-run TV will talk over this in the news? Virtually zero. By next week....it'll be mostly forgotten except by the German print media....privately run.....and you might see another question or two come up over who else in terms of foundations do they fund.
Germans over the past decade, I've come to notice....aren't so thrilled over wild spending of money that has no real value or payback. You can ask a crowd of twenty Germans about wasteful spending, and virtually everyone has a story or two to tell....way past BER or Stuttgart-21 or the Hamburg Opera Hall. Four million Euro? Maybe if that was all that was spent....they'd just grumble. My guess is that if you dig into this over the past five or six years....there's probably another couple of donations from the government in a form of a grant.
Tuesday, November 29, 2016
Monday, November 28, 2016
The Reading Topic
There was a sixty second piece on public-run German news last night (ARD)....which brought up the newest Bundestag issue and "solution".
The German government has been fumbling around for months with a statistical issue that became public knowledge in the last year or two....that roughly 7.5 million of the 82-million Germans.....can't read or write, or barely can achieve such.
The plan? A ten-year plan that will involve 180 million Euro to be spent....roughly 18 million Euro a year. I now....when you look at this amount....it's not really that much.
What this will end up paying for? What they suggest is better teaching material, which works for the office or company-type environment, and some digital method of accessing the material.
Is it really that big of a issue?
I think if you dig into the numbers....what you come to is that a fair number of Germans basically skated through a marginal school system, and they read or comprehend at the 3rd or 4th grade level. These aren't stupid individuals....just that the system wasn't made to personally help them around age nine or ten when they needed a personal tutor or 'coach' for six months. Teachers didn't care, and the system just pushed them along and dumped them into some step below the apprentice program. So they became employed at the lowest level....and without any reading or comprehending in the mix....they never moved up.
Reality is a harsh thing.
If you pick up this topic and really survey it....it leads you to an odd observation. This group of 7.5 million Germans aren't that gifted to grasp political issues, or slanted news.....yet they have the ability to vote and disrupt the system.
Oddly, when they wrapped up this analysis of the 7.5 million being an issue.....they didn't do a state-by-state analysis or a east versus west study and pinpoint where the money ought to be spent. In some ways, they are just throwing 180 million Euro into the air and where ever it lands...that's good enough.
The German government has been fumbling around for months with a statistical issue that became public knowledge in the last year or two....that roughly 7.5 million of the 82-million Germans.....can't read or write, or barely can achieve such.
The plan? A ten-year plan that will involve 180 million Euro to be spent....roughly 18 million Euro a year. I now....when you look at this amount....it's not really that much.
What this will end up paying for? What they suggest is better teaching material, which works for the office or company-type environment, and some digital method of accessing the material.
Is it really that big of a issue?
I think if you dig into the numbers....what you come to is that a fair number of Germans basically skated through a marginal school system, and they read or comprehend at the 3rd or 4th grade level. These aren't stupid individuals....just that the system wasn't made to personally help them around age nine or ten when they needed a personal tutor or 'coach' for six months. Teachers didn't care, and the system just pushed them along and dumped them into some step below the apprentice program. So they became employed at the lowest level....and without any reading or comprehending in the mix....they never moved up.
Reality is a harsh thing.
If you pick up this topic and really survey it....it leads you to an odd observation. This group of 7.5 million Germans aren't that gifted to grasp political issues, or slanted news.....yet they have the ability to vote and disrupt the system.
Oddly, when they wrapped up this analysis of the 7.5 million being an issue.....they didn't do a state-by-state analysis or a east versus west study and pinpoint where the money ought to be spent. In some ways, they are just throwing 180 million Euro into the air and where ever it lands...that's good enough.
German This and That
I had German class today....first of B2.
The chief topic? Multi-media....or the internet. We put about four hours into this topic, with various words and phrases put out there for the fifteen-odd non-Germans in the class.
Except for me and one other guy....most everyone is between 18 and 30 years old. To be honest, most everyone had some familiarity with Facebook, Skype, etc.
So I sat there....thinking over this.
To be honest....with German society as it is....there's a heck of a lot of Germans over the age of fifty who aren't into any part of the internet. These are people who just never got caught up into having a router in their house, or a smart-phone. These are people who don't care.
I would take a guess that roughly twenty percent of German society over the age of 45 years old....have marginal knowledge of mass media or the internet. So in some ways, there is a lot that this new incoming crowd of migrants and immigrants know.....that some Germans themselves aren't that knowledgeable about.
The class for Wednesday? There's a 15-minute section where we talk about the components of a copy machine (in German). The odds that 10-percent of the German population have never touched a copier in their lives? Yet, here is the German class teaching migrants and immigrants these part-names?
It just makes you curious.
The chief topic? Multi-media....or the internet. We put about four hours into this topic, with various words and phrases put out there for the fifteen-odd non-Germans in the class.
Except for me and one other guy....most everyone is between 18 and 30 years old. To be honest, most everyone had some familiarity with Facebook, Skype, etc.
So I sat there....thinking over this.
To be honest....with German society as it is....there's a heck of a lot of Germans over the age of fifty who aren't into any part of the internet. These are people who just never got caught up into having a router in their house, or a smart-phone. These are people who don't care.
I would take a guess that roughly twenty percent of German society over the age of 45 years old....have marginal knowledge of mass media or the internet. So in some ways, there is a lot that this new incoming crowd of migrants and immigrants know.....that some Germans themselves aren't that knowledgeable about.
The class for Wednesday? There's a 15-minute section where we talk about the components of a copy machine (in German). The odds that 10-percent of the German population have never touched a copier in their lives? Yet, here is the German class teaching migrants and immigrants these part-names?
It just makes you curious.
Saturday, November 26, 2016
Fake, Fraudulent, or Misleading News
"Today we have fake sites, bots, trolls – things that regenerate themselves, reinforcing opinions with certain algorithms and we have to learn to deal with them.”
--Chancellor Merkel in a public comment this week.
There is a growing trend in the usage of fake news within the German news media, intellectual forums, and political talks.
What's going on?
Up until the 1930s....a lot of "swing" on public voting was accomplished by local newspapers who would take a side with one particular party. Success in an election was based on hype by the newspapers of Germany.
In the 1930s.....along came radio, and the newspapers whined about this new toy which seemed to take away half of the dynamics on German politics.
In the 1960s....along came TV, and the radio/newspaper crowd whined about this new toy which took away a lot of the authority that was enjoyed by the newspapers and radio personalities.
Around a decade ago....along came the internet and you could sense that German TV, radio and newspapers were annoyed by this new toy.
So, in the last three years....here comes social media, which threatens the regular internet crowd, the TV news figures, the newspapers, and the remains of the radio commentary.
If you look at the primary users of the TV political forums....it's mostly those Germans over the age of forty. If you look at the primary users of Facebook, Huff-Post, Twitter, etc.....it's mostly those under the age of forty.....who don't frequent state-run TV very much.
With the right platform and message.....one could probably go and attract somewhere around fifteen to twenty percent of German society now. This disrupts the common dynamics accepted over the past couple of decades.
The threat of disrupting fake or false news? If I were state-run TV or the German newspaper crowd....I'd be worried that as much as the social media message might be fake.....a fair portion of the regular news might fall into the fake or misleading category as well.
How this German battle will play out? It's hard to say. Merkel might bring up some commission to advise her on this. Or maybe she'll just draft the news media to identify the fake news themselves.....which would make most of the public laugh over the accusations.
In the end, as much as fake, fraudulent and misleading news might be an issue.....the public may decide that fake, fraudulent, and misleading politics are also an issue, and trigger massive negativity about the Berlin political game.
Wednesday, November 23, 2016
Public View of the Political Future in Germany
I picked up last week's edition of Stern today, and browsed through it. They did a survey/poll. Stern is like a hyped-Time magazine publication in Germany....which still has some solid readers.
The poll centered on how the average German feels about the upcoming election, Merkel and the Grand Coalition (the partnership of the CDU and SPD to lead the government).
So, let's get to the shocker numbers.....most Germans....whether you were Green Party, CDU or SPD....wanted Merkel to continue as Chancellor (more than 60-percent of each group). Among the CDU folks....it's around 80-percent. Twenty-percent of the CDU folks aren't happy with her and they want to replace her.
Among the Linke Party and AfD Party....there's less thrills with Merkel staying as Chancellor. Barely twenty percent of the AfD folks could see Merkel staying on.
Chief reason? I think the public admires the management style, lack of corruption or scandal, and general behavior of Merkel. Some remember Schroeder, and his dismal style of commentary at times.
The other shock of the poll is that the vast number of Germans (80-percent) DON'T want the Grand Coalition (CDU-SPD) to continue.
Reason? If you ask folks....there's virtually no difference between the CDU and SPD now....both have screwed up their message and platforms enough....that it's basically one single group pretending to be two parties. This came virtually everyone....across all party lines.
The other likely partnership? If the CDU and Merkel were to win, and the Greens could achieve their typical 9-percent voting pattern, and maybe the FDP did place 5-percent or more.....they could rig up another partnership deal. It would be a challenge to bring the Greens in but it has worked in Hessen.
The poll centered on how the average German feels about the upcoming election, Merkel and the Grand Coalition (the partnership of the CDU and SPD to lead the government).
So, let's get to the shocker numbers.....most Germans....whether you were Green Party, CDU or SPD....wanted Merkel to continue as Chancellor (more than 60-percent of each group). Among the CDU folks....it's around 80-percent. Twenty-percent of the CDU folks aren't happy with her and they want to replace her.
Among the Linke Party and AfD Party....there's less thrills with Merkel staying as Chancellor. Barely twenty percent of the AfD folks could see Merkel staying on.
Chief reason? I think the public admires the management style, lack of corruption or scandal, and general behavior of Merkel. Some remember Schroeder, and his dismal style of commentary at times.
The other shock of the poll is that the vast number of Germans (80-percent) DON'T want the Grand Coalition (CDU-SPD) to continue.
Reason? If you ask folks....there's virtually no difference between the CDU and SPD now....both have screwed up their message and platforms enough....that it's basically one single group pretending to be two parties. This came virtually everyone....across all party lines.
The other likely partnership? If the CDU and Merkel were to win, and the Greens could achieve their typical 9-percent voting pattern, and maybe the FDP did place 5-percent or more.....they could rig up another partnership deal. It would be a challenge to bring the Greens in but it has worked in Hessen.
Tuesday, November 22, 2016
Germany: The Snowden Year
It's basically scripted out and one can be amused at what will develop over the next twelve months.
Germany's high court has ruled that the committee seeking evidence on the NSA via all the Snowden information....can finally have Snowden come to Germany and give testimony here. The Merkel government had said that this was not going to happen.....well....it was taken to court and the court says Snowden can come.
What the Federal Court of Justice said was that Germany must establish pre-conditions, which includes "effective protection of the witness". In effect, they are saying that even if the US asks for Germany to hand him over.....they must find ways to avoid that.
The humor to all of this is that Snowden has noted on more than one occasion that he really wants to give evidence to this committee.....but he won't do it if the committee were to visit Moscow, and he won't do it by Skype or teleconferencing. So in effect, he's using them about as much as they intend to use him.
The last extradition treaty between the US and Germany was signed in 1978. The US Senate passed it....so it's absolutely official. There are thirty-three offenses that you could commit and the treaty would fall into effect. Oddly, they wrote a line or two into it that political offenses would not work with this treaty. So, my guess is that the Germans will say that the charges against Snowden are more politically related, and thus they won't cooperate in handing him over.
I read through the whole extradition treaty. The thirty-three offenses ran through the normal bunch....murder, assault, kidnapping, etc. Amazingly enough....there is nothing listed that really covers Snowden 'crime'. Robbery is listed, and if the US had Snowden on theft of secrets....it might work, but it's a weak usage of the extradition treaty.
So, here's my script for the events.
Germany will spend two months planning this out and send the invitation to Snowden after the swearing in ceremony of President Trump.
I would lean more toward April or May for this to happen but it might happen in mid-January.
Immediately upon arrival, the US will ask for his arrest, and the Germans will refuse. Some blunt statement will be read to the Germans....that "friends" don't act in this fashion.
The US could go to the next step....of using the EU court to force Germany to hand him over. The US might go and suggest that the whole extradition treaty is voided and will have to be redone.....while suggesting they won't release any German-wanted criminals back to Germany. It'd be a silly game to say that but it's better than the next step.
Meanwhile, the state-run news people will be blasting away on Snowden comments and the evil NSA. This being an election year.....it would go and help three particular parties (SPD, Linke Party and the Greens). Oddly, all three are banded in an agreement being worked up already (yeah imagine the idea that idea from two months ago works perfect with Snowden in the mix).
At some point, I would suggest that WikiLeaks will come out with a listing of emails between the politicians and the state-run news people.....giving them the scripted topics and words. Nothing much will be said via state-run TV about this, but most of the public will be aware of the dishonesty within a week after the emails are released.
As we progress into summer and the usage of the Snowden 'showcase' to harm the Merkel campaign....an odd thing happens. While Merkel's party is harmed by this Snowden business.....so are the SPD, Linke Party and Greens. The public trust is heading south. State-run TV will blame 'fake news'.
To be blunt, Snowden isn't much of a topic with 95-percent of the German public. Most don't care about the NSA episode or this fake hyped agenda business. They want action on immigration, integration and asylum.
By mid-summer, Tump finally dumps on the German government....US installations around Germany will close. Troops moving out. Some will relocate to Poland. Some to the UK. Some back to the states. The German news media will try to suggest that this is bizarre and crazy behavior of Trump, but a majority of Germans are looking squarely at Berlin (all of the parties will get blamed).
If the AfD was looking for some turbo-blast toward September's election.....the Snowden affair and the reaction by the US will work into their favor. You could be looking at 25-to-28 percent of the public voting AfD because of this worked-up fake gimmick with Snowden.
Back in the 1980s....this game of using Snowden probably would have worked.....but the general public has gotten smarter....the news media more stupid....and social media will be the central part of this whole thing.
Merkel might still squeeze out some win, but the damage done by this 'theater-act' will last on for a decade. Lack of trust across all lines will be the long-term gain from this situation.
And Snowden? I think he will end up in some witness-protection program in Germany.....residing in some small unknown town in eastern Germany. Told to just stay around the farm-house and tend to a garden.....he will ask why he can't go and live in Berlin.....appear on state-run TV forums....and have a real life as a fake political promi.
So, settle back. 2017 will be a mighty interesting year.
Germany's high court has ruled that the committee seeking evidence on the NSA via all the Snowden information....can finally have Snowden come to Germany and give testimony here. The Merkel government had said that this was not going to happen.....well....it was taken to court and the court says Snowden can come.
What the Federal Court of Justice said was that Germany must establish pre-conditions, which includes "effective protection of the witness". In effect, they are saying that even if the US asks for Germany to hand him over.....they must find ways to avoid that.
The humor to all of this is that Snowden has noted on more than one occasion that he really wants to give evidence to this committee.....but he won't do it if the committee were to visit Moscow, and he won't do it by Skype or teleconferencing. So in effect, he's using them about as much as they intend to use him.
The last extradition treaty between the US and Germany was signed in 1978. The US Senate passed it....so it's absolutely official. There are thirty-three offenses that you could commit and the treaty would fall into effect. Oddly, they wrote a line or two into it that political offenses would not work with this treaty. So, my guess is that the Germans will say that the charges against Snowden are more politically related, and thus they won't cooperate in handing him over.
I read through the whole extradition treaty. The thirty-three offenses ran through the normal bunch....murder, assault, kidnapping, etc. Amazingly enough....there is nothing listed that really covers Snowden 'crime'. Robbery is listed, and if the US had Snowden on theft of secrets....it might work, but it's a weak usage of the extradition treaty.
So, here's my script for the events.
Germany will spend two months planning this out and send the invitation to Snowden after the swearing in ceremony of President Trump.
I would lean more toward April or May for this to happen but it might happen in mid-January.
Immediately upon arrival, the US will ask for his arrest, and the Germans will refuse. Some blunt statement will be read to the Germans....that "friends" don't act in this fashion.
The US could go to the next step....of using the EU court to force Germany to hand him over. The US might go and suggest that the whole extradition treaty is voided and will have to be redone.....while suggesting they won't release any German-wanted criminals back to Germany. It'd be a silly game to say that but it's better than the next step.
Meanwhile, the state-run news people will be blasting away on Snowden comments and the evil NSA. This being an election year.....it would go and help three particular parties (SPD, Linke Party and the Greens). Oddly, all three are banded in an agreement being worked up already (yeah imagine the idea that idea from two months ago works perfect with Snowden in the mix).
At some point, I would suggest that WikiLeaks will come out with a listing of emails between the politicians and the state-run news people.....giving them the scripted topics and words. Nothing much will be said via state-run TV about this, but most of the public will be aware of the dishonesty within a week after the emails are released.
As we progress into summer and the usage of the Snowden 'showcase' to harm the Merkel campaign....an odd thing happens. While Merkel's party is harmed by this Snowden business.....so are the SPD, Linke Party and Greens. The public trust is heading south. State-run TV will blame 'fake news'.
To be blunt, Snowden isn't much of a topic with 95-percent of the German public. Most don't care about the NSA episode or this fake hyped agenda business. They want action on immigration, integration and asylum.
By mid-summer, Tump finally dumps on the German government....US installations around Germany will close. Troops moving out. Some will relocate to Poland. Some to the UK. Some back to the states. The German news media will try to suggest that this is bizarre and crazy behavior of Trump, but a majority of Germans are looking squarely at Berlin (all of the parties will get blamed).
If the AfD was looking for some turbo-blast toward September's election.....the Snowden affair and the reaction by the US will work into their favor. You could be looking at 25-to-28 percent of the public voting AfD because of this worked-up fake gimmick with Snowden.
Back in the 1980s....this game of using Snowden probably would have worked.....but the general public has gotten smarter....the news media more stupid....and social media will be the central part of this whole thing.
Merkel might still squeeze out some win, but the damage done by this 'theater-act' will last on for a decade. Lack of trust across all lines will be the long-term gain from this situation.
And Snowden? I think he will end up in some witness-protection program in Germany.....residing in some small unknown town in eastern Germany. Told to just stay around the farm-house and tend to a garden.....he will ask why he can't go and live in Berlin.....appear on state-run TV forums....and have a real life as a fake political promi.
So, settle back. 2017 will be a mighty interesting year.
Monday, November 21, 2016
How Percentages and Partnerships Work in A German Election
There are basically four rules to a German election.
1. You the citizen will vote for the Party (not so much as for the Chancellor candidate).
2. Whether you vote in Bavaria, or in Berlin....it doesn't matter. None of the votes amount to a state (16 of them) situation.
3. You have to win 5-percent as a party in the national election....to hold any seats in the Bundestag.
4. The leading winner of the election needs 50-percent of the seats to run the government. This requires you to take your 35-plus-percent typically and build a partnership with one opposition party (maybe two partners).
So, this leads to several interesting topics.
Can a party win with only 25-percent of the vote? Yes. It would require the second and thirty placing parties to probably get around 20-to-24 percent each, and the 4th and 5th party to get 5 to 10 percent each.
Can a party with some marginal character win via the party mechanism? It would be hard because they'd have to go for several debates and idiots would harm the parties chances out of these debates.
Do parties go up and down in each election? Yes, for the most part. The Green Party has reached a point where they can typically count on 7 to 9 percent of the national vote. It rarely goes above that or below that. The rest of the parties can lose a quarter of their votes, just based on the chancellor candidate or their platforms.
Does state-run TV matter in this case? You can count on state-run TV to run at least 200 hours of debate and forums in the six months leading up to an election. They can help or hinder a party.
Are there topics that come up every four years? Yes.....pension reform, tax reform, welfare reform, education reform, and infrastructure. Oddly, no one remembers that someone promised to once and for all....fix such-and-such problem, which oddly comes up four years later as a repeating problem.
How many registered Germans typically vote? Typically, 65 to 75 percent of the public will vote. You have to be eighteen years old to vote and a citizen. The SPD in 2017 will have a platform to lower the voting age to 16....which will be discussed widely.
When partnerships occur....what's the end-result? The chancellor candidate will sit at a table and offer up positions on the platform, and cabinet positions. The more partnerships (you might have to have 3 parties).....the more problems you have in making people happy.
What's this CDU/CSU thing? Two parties....acting like two cousins....and they usually combine votes in their win. Bavaria is the CSU unit, and the remaining 15 states have the CDU unit. A difference between the two? Yes...the CSU is slightly more conservative than the CDU folks.
Can a party fire a member? Yes. You could have a minister who has gotten into serious trouble, and rather than the Chancellor getting involved.....the individual's party could call him in for a review, and his status within the party could be challenged.
Can a partner quit the partnership? Yes, this is very possible....but unlikely. Typically, it'd mean another election.
If you win the election as a party, and can't form a partnership within a month? They typically give the winner plenty of time, but if you can't form a partnership.....then the number two party gets the nod and a chance to form a partnership. If they fail.....you'd go by the rules and have another election.
Aren't there lots of parties? Well.....typically forty-odd parties exist. If you go by past elections, around 34 of them will amount to 10-percent of the national vote, and that means that they don't count in the end. Once you cross the 5-percent point, it matters. So, more than a million votes will usually be wasted.
Aren't there non-serious parties in the running? At various times, parties out of thin air have existed, and been a joke. Right now.....Die Partei exists as a joke party. Die Partei got 39,000 votes in the last election. The oddest party in existence right now? The Violent Party (something to do with spiritual awareness, but it's best not to ask unless you are drinking or smoking something strong).
Are there partnerships that will never occur? The CDU used to say it'd be impossible to partner with the Greens. In Hessen state politics, they managed a partnership and will agree that some elements of the Green Party are workable. The SPD has members who say it's impossible to work with the Linke Party, but two months ago announced that they will hopefully work up a relationship this time (2017). Right now....most parties consider the AfD to be impossible to work a relationship, however if they get 20-percent of the vote....it'll be hard to avoid partnerships with them.
1. You the citizen will vote for the Party (not so much as for the Chancellor candidate).
2. Whether you vote in Bavaria, or in Berlin....it doesn't matter. None of the votes amount to a state (16 of them) situation.
3. You have to win 5-percent as a party in the national election....to hold any seats in the Bundestag.
4. The leading winner of the election needs 50-percent of the seats to run the government. This requires you to take your 35-plus-percent typically and build a partnership with one opposition party (maybe two partners).
So, this leads to several interesting topics.
Can a party win with only 25-percent of the vote? Yes. It would require the second and thirty placing parties to probably get around 20-to-24 percent each, and the 4th and 5th party to get 5 to 10 percent each.
Can a party with some marginal character win via the party mechanism? It would be hard because they'd have to go for several debates and idiots would harm the parties chances out of these debates.
Do parties go up and down in each election? Yes, for the most part. The Green Party has reached a point where they can typically count on 7 to 9 percent of the national vote. It rarely goes above that or below that. The rest of the parties can lose a quarter of their votes, just based on the chancellor candidate or their platforms.
Does state-run TV matter in this case? You can count on state-run TV to run at least 200 hours of debate and forums in the six months leading up to an election. They can help or hinder a party.
Are there topics that come up every four years? Yes.....pension reform, tax reform, welfare reform, education reform, and infrastructure. Oddly, no one remembers that someone promised to once and for all....fix such-and-such problem, which oddly comes up four years later as a repeating problem.
How many registered Germans typically vote? Typically, 65 to 75 percent of the public will vote. You have to be eighteen years old to vote and a citizen. The SPD in 2017 will have a platform to lower the voting age to 16....which will be discussed widely.
When partnerships occur....what's the end-result? The chancellor candidate will sit at a table and offer up positions on the platform, and cabinet positions. The more partnerships (you might have to have 3 parties).....the more problems you have in making people happy.
What's this CDU/CSU thing? Two parties....acting like two cousins....and they usually combine votes in their win. Bavaria is the CSU unit, and the remaining 15 states have the CDU unit. A difference between the two? Yes...the CSU is slightly more conservative than the CDU folks.
Can a party fire a member? Yes. You could have a minister who has gotten into serious trouble, and rather than the Chancellor getting involved.....the individual's party could call him in for a review, and his status within the party could be challenged.
Can a partner quit the partnership? Yes, this is very possible....but unlikely. Typically, it'd mean another election.
If you win the election as a party, and can't form a partnership within a month? They typically give the winner plenty of time, but if you can't form a partnership.....then the number two party gets the nod and a chance to form a partnership. If they fail.....you'd go by the rules and have another election.
Aren't there lots of parties? Well.....typically forty-odd parties exist. If you go by past elections, around 34 of them will amount to 10-percent of the national vote, and that means that they don't count in the end. Once you cross the 5-percent point, it matters. So, more than a million votes will usually be wasted.
Aren't there non-serious parties in the running? At various times, parties out of thin air have existed, and been a joke. Right now.....Die Partei exists as a joke party. Die Partei got 39,000 votes in the last election. The oddest party in existence right now? The Violent Party (something to do with spiritual awareness, but it's best not to ask unless you are drinking or smoking something strong).
Are there partnerships that will never occur? The CDU used to say it'd be impossible to partner with the Greens. In Hessen state politics, they managed a partnership and will agree that some elements of the Green Party are workable. The SPD has members who say it's impossible to work with the Linke Party, but two months ago announced that they will hopefully work up a relationship this time (2017). Right now....most parties consider the AfD to be impossible to work a relationship, however if they get 20-percent of the vote....it'll be hard to avoid partnerships with them.
Sunday, November 20, 2016
Merkel In
Done. The announcement was made in the last hour. Chancellor Merkel will run again for the CDU as Chancellor in the September 2017 election.
Chief reason? Crappy CDU choices for the Chancellor position. It's pretty difficult to avoid talking about this but that's the reality.
How this plays out:
1. Thomas de Maiziere is the head of the Interior Ministry....and will be 63 next year. He's hinted that he'll retire.
2. Wolfgang Schauble is the Finance Minister....and will be 75 next year. He says he'll absolutely retire at the conclusion of the election.
3. The CDU is desperate to bring in some fresh and four-star players (Julie Glockner of the Pfalz, Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer, and Jens Spahn). Spahn is one of the more clever guys around but young. Glockner is a charmer and very likeable but there is a question-mark over what ministry to give her if the CDU wins (she's just not foreign minister material or a budget queen).
4. There's been a fair amount of talk that the CDU really desires to team up with the Greens and FDP instead of the SPD again. One issue with the Greens is that there are two factions pulling on the Greens.....one wants a very leftist platform, and it'd be impossible to reach some partnership if this wing of the Greens wins out. The FDP? Their problem would be just in getting five-percent of the national vote.....which I would have doubt of their ability.
5. From the 16.2 million votes in 2013 (just for them)....I think you can count on a quarter of those being unhappy and looking elsewhere (AfD or FDP). For Merkel to win, she'd have to hope on a quarter of SPD voters to also be disenchanted and unhappy.
6. This team of the CDU and CSU? Merkel desperately needs those 3.5-million-plus votes from Bavaria and the partnership of the CSU. Without that partnership, there's no way to win, and no way to forge a partnership with the Greens/FDP.
Basically, you can throw away the script for the past four elections, and the traditional topics that the news media would chat about. This will be a very different election, with the public sour about immigration, integration, and lack of leadership from Berlin. It doesn't matter if you talk to SPD, CDU voters.....they all have some anger over the way that things have gone for the past four years.
The hype from the news media? Populism, fake news, right-wing agenda, Trump, Putin, the terrible situation in France and Austria (having gone right), the referendum in Italy failing (likely now), the BREXIT deal, and if Edrogan will continue his games. Social media may overtake the value of the news media from the past and create a whole new dynamic.
If you thought that the US election was pretty weird by the end.....prepare for the German version.
Chief reason? Crappy CDU choices for the Chancellor position. It's pretty difficult to avoid talking about this but that's the reality.
How this plays out:
1. Thomas de Maiziere is the head of the Interior Ministry....and will be 63 next year. He's hinted that he'll retire.
2. Wolfgang Schauble is the Finance Minister....and will be 75 next year. He says he'll absolutely retire at the conclusion of the election.
3. The CDU is desperate to bring in some fresh and four-star players (Julie Glockner of the Pfalz, Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer, and Jens Spahn). Spahn is one of the more clever guys around but young. Glockner is a charmer and very likeable but there is a question-mark over what ministry to give her if the CDU wins (she's just not foreign minister material or a budget queen).
4. There's been a fair amount of talk that the CDU really desires to team up with the Greens and FDP instead of the SPD again. One issue with the Greens is that there are two factions pulling on the Greens.....one wants a very leftist platform, and it'd be impossible to reach some partnership if this wing of the Greens wins out. The FDP? Their problem would be just in getting five-percent of the national vote.....which I would have doubt of their ability.
5. From the 16.2 million votes in 2013 (just for them)....I think you can count on a quarter of those being unhappy and looking elsewhere (AfD or FDP). For Merkel to win, she'd have to hope on a quarter of SPD voters to also be disenchanted and unhappy.
6. This team of the CDU and CSU? Merkel desperately needs those 3.5-million-plus votes from Bavaria and the partnership of the CSU. Without that partnership, there's no way to win, and no way to forge a partnership with the Greens/FDP.
Basically, you can throw away the script for the past four elections, and the traditional topics that the news media would chat about. This will be a very different election, with the public sour about immigration, integration, and lack of leadership from Berlin. It doesn't matter if you talk to SPD, CDU voters.....they all have some anger over the way that things have gone for the past four years.
The hype from the news media? Populism, fake news, right-wing agenda, Trump, Putin, the terrible situation in France and Austria (having gone right), the referendum in Italy failing (likely now), the BREXIT deal, and if Edrogan will continue his games. Social media may overtake the value of the news media from the past and create a whole new dynamic.
If you thought that the US election was pretty weird by the end.....prepare for the German version.
Saturday, November 19, 2016
Politik ist Scheisse Party (Politics is S**t Party)
I often point out that there are typically forty-odd political parties in existence in an average election....of which several are just a joke.
In the early 1980s of West Germany.....there came this party referred to as "the Anarchistic Pogo Party of Germany". In short, APPD, or referred to in German as Anarchistische Pogo-Partei Deutschland.
The insider reference to the party was "mob" or "social parasites". As history tells the story....this was an idea by two local punks from the Hannover area in 1981. Few talk about this moment, but I would imagine they were sitting in some living room....consuming a lot of beer (as most German guys do), and just said why the hell don't we create a political party.
The party existed in an area without the internet, which is the odd thing. They got the word out via local bars, pubs, and music halls. I think in today's atmosphere, with social media.....they might have shocked the public in Hannover with 5-percent of the vote.
By 1998, they gone to the next level....promising free beer.
The "Pogo" name for the party? This came out of a dance which was 'hot' at the time but mostly related to punk-music.
'
What they eventually got around to suggesting as a platform? They suggested a full right to unemployment....with full salary. They also suggested an end to compulsory education (never saying what would replace it). There was also a platform for local or regional centers for physical love.....basically a state-run orgy center. Naturally, legalization of drugs (any and all drugs) was on the list as well.
At some point, the idea of balkanization came up....where they wanted the borders redrawn to what existed in 1237 (before the Nazis, before WW II or I, and before the Kaiser).
Some were surprised in 1997 Hamburg city elections.....when they took a shocking 5.3-percent in the vote. All without social media.
Closely associated with drugs and booze? Yeah, without any doubt.
Pogo in today's environment? If you found the right band, with the right tune that closely bonds with the party's attitude and has a decent beat.....you'd build the foundation of the Pogo movement in 2017. Toss in some smart guys who do the IT business....build up their own page....run a Facebook and Twitter profile, and look for strictly teens and guys in their early 20's who are just angry at the system and Berlin leadership.
You could probably talk the Putin guys into sponsoring part of this and help form nifty slogans. Toss in some concerts around Germany. And by September, they might actually get 500,000 votes....mostly from the 18-to-25 age group and mostly from people who would have voted for the SPD or CDU. They wouldn't enter the Bundestag but they'd be noticed just about every evening in the news.
In the early 1980s of West Germany.....there came this party referred to as "the Anarchistic Pogo Party of Germany". In short, APPD, or referred to in German as Anarchistische Pogo-Partei Deutschland.
The insider reference to the party was "mob" or "social parasites". As history tells the story....this was an idea by two local punks from the Hannover area in 1981. Few talk about this moment, but I would imagine they were sitting in some living room....consuming a lot of beer (as most German guys do), and just said why the hell don't we create a political party.
The party existed in an area without the internet, which is the odd thing. They got the word out via local bars, pubs, and music halls. I think in today's atmosphere, with social media.....they might have shocked the public in Hannover with 5-percent of the vote.
By 1998, they gone to the next level....promising free beer.
The "Pogo" name for the party? This came out of a dance which was 'hot' at the time but mostly related to punk-music.
'
What they eventually got around to suggesting as a platform? They suggested a full right to unemployment....with full salary. They also suggested an end to compulsory education (never saying what would replace it). There was also a platform for local or regional centers for physical love.....basically a state-run orgy center. Naturally, legalization of drugs (any and all drugs) was on the list as well.
At some point, the idea of balkanization came up....where they wanted the borders redrawn to what existed in 1237 (before the Nazis, before WW II or I, and before the Kaiser).
Some were surprised in 1997 Hamburg city elections.....when they took a shocking 5.3-percent in the vote. All without social media.
Closely associated with drugs and booze? Yeah, without any doubt.
Pogo in today's environment? If you found the right band, with the right tune that closely bonds with the party's attitude and has a decent beat.....you'd build the foundation of the Pogo movement in 2017. Toss in some smart guys who do the IT business....build up their own page....run a Facebook and Twitter profile, and look for strictly teens and guys in their early 20's who are just angry at the system and Berlin leadership.
You could probably talk the Putin guys into sponsoring part of this and help form nifty slogans. Toss in some concerts around Germany. And by September, they might actually get 500,000 votes....mostly from the 18-to-25 age group and mostly from people who would have voted for the SPD or CDU. They wouldn't enter the Bundestag but they'd be noticed just about every evening in the news.
Numbers
If you were looking for past performance of German elections and the effect on the CDU, then here are some examples:
2013:
- CDU and Merkel: 16.2 million votes
- CSU (out of Bavaria): 3.5 million votes
2009:
- CDU and Merkel: 13.8 million votes
- CSU: 3.2 million votes
2005: (the year she lost)
- CDU and Merkel: 15.4 million votes
- CSU: 3.9 million votes
In a typical German election (using the last four), between 43 and 48 million Germans will vote....with a 65 to 70 percent turn-out of registered voters. The CSU rarely gets above the 3.9 million vote mark (2002 was the exception, with their guy as the Chancellor candidate between the CDU and CSU.....with 4.3 million Bavarian voters).
The odds in 2017's election? You can be fairly sure that she won't exceed the 2009 number (13.8 million votes), and it's possible that she won't cross the 12 million point, with some normal CDU voters going toward the AfD.
The obvious question left.....will disenchanted voters from the SPD also fall into this issue, and lessen their average (typically 12 to 16 million)? They've had one great year in the past four elections with 20 million.
2013:
- CDU and Merkel: 16.2 million votes
- CSU (out of Bavaria): 3.5 million votes
2009:
- CDU and Merkel: 13.8 million votes
- CSU: 3.2 million votes
2005: (the year she lost)
- CDU and Merkel: 15.4 million votes
- CSU: 3.9 million votes
In a typical German election (using the last four), between 43 and 48 million Germans will vote....with a 65 to 70 percent turn-out of registered voters. The CSU rarely gets above the 3.9 million vote mark (2002 was the exception, with their guy as the Chancellor candidate between the CDU and CSU.....with 4.3 million Bavarian voters).
The odds in 2017's election? You can be fairly sure that she won't exceed the 2009 number (13.8 million votes), and it's possible that she won't cross the 12 million point, with some normal CDU voters going toward the AfD.
The obvious question left.....will disenchanted voters from the SPD also fall into this issue, and lessen their average (typically 12 to 16 million)? They've had one great year in the past four elections with 20 million.
Friday, November 18, 2016
The Fake Discussion
For a while, there's been slight hints by the intellectual folks, journalists and politicians in Germany....over this problem of fake news....mostly coming off of Facebook and social media. When President Obama arrived to do his last final tour in Germany....this got onto the discussion topics between him and Chancellor Merkel. Both share some 'fascination' with this and want some type of government control.
The problem is....once you start to mount some campaign here on fake stuff....where exactly do you start or end?
Fake news on Facebook? What kind of fake news? I read this morning that some Brit vigilante group put Breitbart News on such a list of fake news. Drudge? It also got put onto some fake news list.
Fake friends on Facebook? Someone did a study.....worldwide, and came to conclude that sixty-plus million accounts on Facebook are fake. Will some massive effort by the German authorities go after fake Facebook accounts or Twitter accounts which appear to be fake?
Fake politicians? Some journalists will sit around and try to bluff their way through some argument that so-and-so is not a legitimate figure. How will you confirm he's a fake SPD guy or a fake CDU gal? Unknown.
There are various foundations and universities around Germany today, who go out on a weekly basis to expose another fake food claim, or fake soda nutritional value, or another fake calorie count (the bag will suggest two portions which amount to X number of calories....when it is 2.5 portions in reality). Being healthy to consume or drink today....gets challenged constantly.
One group of Germans quietly go around to figure out who is claiming fake PhD status. If you had some PhD from a university in Italy? Well, it'd likely be challenged unless a judge stood up and just said it was ok, but that's after you spent a couple thousand Euro defending your "honor" in some German court.
So, will the Germans....via their press apparatus or PhD squad go after fake news? I think they might be stupid enough to do it. But I also think they might be just as stupid walk into a pretty deep trap set up by some clever folks and find that the fake-hunters....are fake themselves. And if the public figures out that some great "hunt" fell upon the fake-hunters and they weren't legit? Public confidence would go way down this drain.
The problem is....once you start to mount some campaign here on fake stuff....where exactly do you start or end?
Fake news on Facebook? What kind of fake news? I read this morning that some Brit vigilante group put Breitbart News on such a list of fake news. Drudge? It also got put onto some fake news list.
Fake friends on Facebook? Someone did a study.....worldwide, and came to conclude that sixty-plus million accounts on Facebook are fake. Will some massive effort by the German authorities go after fake Facebook accounts or Twitter accounts which appear to be fake?
Fake politicians? Some journalists will sit around and try to bluff their way through some argument that so-and-so is not a legitimate figure. How will you confirm he's a fake SPD guy or a fake CDU gal? Unknown.
There are various foundations and universities around Germany today, who go out on a weekly basis to expose another fake food claim, or fake soda nutritional value, or another fake calorie count (the bag will suggest two portions which amount to X number of calories....when it is 2.5 portions in reality). Being healthy to consume or drink today....gets challenged constantly.
One group of Germans quietly go around to figure out who is claiming fake PhD status. If you had some PhD from a university in Italy? Well, it'd likely be challenged unless a judge stood up and just said it was ok, but that's after you spent a couple thousand Euro defending your "honor" in some German court.
So, will the Germans....via their press apparatus or PhD squad go after fake news? I think they might be stupid enough to do it. But I also think they might be just as stupid walk into a pretty deep trap set up by some clever folks and find that the fake-hunters....are fake themselves. And if the public figures out that some great "hunt" fell upon the fake-hunters and they weren't legit? Public confidence would go way down this drain.
Thursday, November 17, 2016
The Burger-Flipper Volk (People)
Volk translates usually from German into English and means common people. It's not a slam or negative....it just qualifies for regular people (not the intellectuals or rich).....just working class.
I write this blog or essay piece from the prospective of an American.
When I arrived in Germany in 1978....it was like an adventure and you were allowing me a chance to just walk around some new fantasy land. Frankfurt was not a hundred-percent recovered from the war....you could still find a few areas which had not been rebuilt. What you saw was a massive reconstruction turbo-charged society. New apartments were going up.....industry was catching up....unemployment was like 4-percent or less....Turks were being brought in to make cars or produce steel....you could feel enthusiasm in Frankfurt.
When you looked around over the next decade of Germany (I returned again in 84-85)....you still saw a segment of society with enthusiasm and old-fashioned German charm.
Oh, I agree....these were not the Germans with a sense of humor, or drawn to intellectual arguments. These were regular guys who watched soccer with a passion.....sipped beer maybe to an excessive point....were still thrilled with Opel cars....and were happy with just two weeks of vacation which they'd spend in Bavaria or some isle in Greece.
If you were to divide up German society.....I'd say that 70-percent were middle-class people and lived in a fairly happy mode. Ten-percent were upper-class people.....making real money.....flying off to Australia....drinking champagne....and likely to sit in some opera or musical on weekends. The remaining twenty-percent? They were the ones who were at the bottom and still had some hope of moving up. Welfare recipients were still in abundance but everyone had some negative view of welfare and it's good intentions.
Somewhere in the 1990s.....things changed.
I think the middle-class got divided up into five or six categories by that point. I think politics crept up into a daily conversation piece, with the news media preaching to the public via state-run TV. Roughly five to ten percent.....depending on who you hear the data come from....are permanently attached to the bottom class now, and will likely never move up.
We have jobs existing now, which people just won't work for 8-Euro an hour. I stood there on Monday at McDonalds in the Wiesbaden Bahnhof and observed a fairly big sign there....wanting applicants. From various grocery operations, stores, and coffee-shops....I've seen similar signs in the past six months. They seek people but the bare minimum wage is the most they will pay.
Who applies for these jobs now? It's the new burger-flipper 'volk'....the new immigrants....the new migrants.
Right now, they will take anything....just to have money on the table. No arguments.
My suspicion is that within five to eight years.....they will wake up and realize that they are attached to a dead-end job, without much chance of advancement, and wondering how you ever get your pay level up to 10-Euro an hour.
All this talk about job-training (with an attached bill for the training)? Maybe if there were tons of jobs open....it might all be worth the pain and cost involved. I don't see this listing of numerous jobs with skills or crafts....just mostly minimum wage opportunities. The current unemployment rate sits at around 6-percent. If it were three or four-percent.....you'd have the open window for such people being needed. Frankly, the need isn't there unless you talk about mini-jobs or 8-Euro an hour jobs.
In some way, we are creating in Germany a new class of people....the burger-flipper volk. They walked a long way....dreaming of a new life....a new start....and end up with service-sector jobs with limited to zero future. In twenty years, they will eventually get around to talking about pension expectations and realize that they've got nothing much to dream about as they grow older.
The politicians? You can promise a ton of things, but I don't see how you can afford to deliver on this type of situation.
For me, it's odd trying to compare 1978 to today. You saw a ton of enthusiasm in 1978. You just don't see that today with the Germans. With the migrants, there's some enthusiasm but you sense that this is not a stable enthusiasm or a predictable outcome enthusiasm.
I remember some professor from years ago commenting on financial cuts, and he made some comment out of thin air.....you can carve as much as you want.....but eventually when you have nothing...and you attempt to carve on nothing....out of nothing will come nothing. I think the Germans have a road-map to such a place.
I write this blog or essay piece from the prospective of an American.
When I arrived in Germany in 1978....it was like an adventure and you were allowing me a chance to just walk around some new fantasy land. Frankfurt was not a hundred-percent recovered from the war....you could still find a few areas which had not been rebuilt. What you saw was a massive reconstruction turbo-charged society. New apartments were going up.....industry was catching up....unemployment was like 4-percent or less....Turks were being brought in to make cars or produce steel....you could feel enthusiasm in Frankfurt.
When you looked around over the next decade of Germany (I returned again in 84-85)....you still saw a segment of society with enthusiasm and old-fashioned German charm.
Oh, I agree....these were not the Germans with a sense of humor, or drawn to intellectual arguments. These were regular guys who watched soccer with a passion.....sipped beer maybe to an excessive point....were still thrilled with Opel cars....and were happy with just two weeks of vacation which they'd spend in Bavaria or some isle in Greece.
If you were to divide up German society.....I'd say that 70-percent were middle-class people and lived in a fairly happy mode. Ten-percent were upper-class people.....making real money.....flying off to Australia....drinking champagne....and likely to sit in some opera or musical on weekends. The remaining twenty-percent? They were the ones who were at the bottom and still had some hope of moving up. Welfare recipients were still in abundance but everyone had some negative view of welfare and it's good intentions.
Somewhere in the 1990s.....things changed.
I think the middle-class got divided up into five or six categories by that point. I think politics crept up into a daily conversation piece, with the news media preaching to the public via state-run TV. Roughly five to ten percent.....depending on who you hear the data come from....are permanently attached to the bottom class now, and will likely never move up.
We have jobs existing now, which people just won't work for 8-Euro an hour. I stood there on Monday at McDonalds in the Wiesbaden Bahnhof and observed a fairly big sign there....wanting applicants. From various grocery operations, stores, and coffee-shops....I've seen similar signs in the past six months. They seek people but the bare minimum wage is the most they will pay.
Who applies for these jobs now? It's the new burger-flipper 'volk'....the new immigrants....the new migrants.
Right now, they will take anything....just to have money on the table. No arguments.
My suspicion is that within five to eight years.....they will wake up and realize that they are attached to a dead-end job, without much chance of advancement, and wondering how you ever get your pay level up to 10-Euro an hour.
All this talk about job-training (with an attached bill for the training)? Maybe if there were tons of jobs open....it might all be worth the pain and cost involved. I don't see this listing of numerous jobs with skills or crafts....just mostly minimum wage opportunities. The current unemployment rate sits at around 6-percent. If it were three or four-percent.....you'd have the open window for such people being needed. Frankly, the need isn't there unless you talk about mini-jobs or 8-Euro an hour jobs.
In some way, we are creating in Germany a new class of people....the burger-flipper volk. They walked a long way....dreaming of a new life....a new start....and end up with service-sector jobs with limited to zero future. In twenty years, they will eventually get around to talking about pension expectations and realize that they've got nothing much to dream about as they grow older.
The politicians? You can promise a ton of things, but I don't see how you can afford to deliver on this type of situation.
For me, it's odd trying to compare 1978 to today. You saw a ton of enthusiasm in 1978. You just don't see that today with the Germans. With the migrants, there's some enthusiasm but you sense that this is not a stable enthusiasm or a predictable outcome enthusiasm.
I remember some professor from years ago commenting on financial cuts, and he made some comment out of thin air.....you can carve as much as you want.....but eventually when you have nothing...and you attempt to carve on nothing....out of nothing will come nothing. I think the Germans have a road-map to such a place.
Wednesday, November 16, 2016
The Never-Ending Story
I've blogged this episode before, and I saw today an update.
There's this American guy....Army guy....who deserted the US back in 2007 ( I know it's almost 10 years ago). The guy....Andrea Sheppard....enlisted originally in 2004. He did one single deployment into Iraq....an entire year.
He came to the end of his contract, and he had some will to re-enlist but he didn't ever want to go back to Iraq. Somehow, at least he says that....some recruitment NCO said that this was possible. It's hard to imagine some idiot from the Army swearing up and down that you could be in the Army and never go to a particular hostile zone.....but Sheppard claims this. I have my doubts about this part of the story.
So, he re-enlists, and gets sent to Germany, and in 2007.....the unit is notified that they will deploy to Iraq. He tells his commander that he was promised that he didn't have to deploy. The story is a bit humorous.....but they just won't buy into it.
Sheppard walks out the post gate and goes to a Bavarian office (his next big mistake) to ask for asylum. He gets some help from various groups, and the paperwork is put into the system.
Here is the next issue.....the German law from the 1960s/1970s.....changed. In the old days, it just said that anyone could ask for asylum in this case of American military individuals and Germany would accept the paperwork. Well...the law was changed. It now says because the US is a volunteer force now.....you need to show that your unit would have committed war crimes. Did his unit commit war crimes? So far, no one has ever proven a single episode.
So the case went back and forth. I personally think that he would have been much better off submitting the paperwork in Hessen or NRW. Locals outside of Bavaria might have bent over backwards. But this is Bavaria and they just don't see his logic in this.
No one in Bavaria will sign off on this. So last year (in the spring) a EU court was dragged in and asked if he had the right to be examined for such-and-such asylum procedure. Well....yes of course. Oddly, all that did was shuffle the paperwork back to Bavaria. The EU court didn't want to order Bavaria to sign off (this is readily apparent).
The Berlin crowd? I get the impression they really don't want to sign this paperwork either.
Today, it comes up in Bavarian news that the court in Munich. It may take weeks.....maybe months now....but it's on their calendar.
The odds? I hate to suggest this, but I think they will decline because he simply doesn't fit the profile that the law was built for. Oddly, had he just stayed on the post and refused to deploy.....the most he would have likely gotten from the Army is maybe six to twelve months in some disciplinary situation, and then they would have discharged him. Now? He's wasted almost a decade of his life in Bavaria in some wait-and-see episode, and the Bavarians may say by spring of 2017.....he has to leave.
My suspicion is that he'll use another delay tactic and ask for another EU court to render another verdict and drag this out to 2018, with another Munich court getting the case back by 2019, and then repeating this again in 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, etc.
Will Sheppard ever leave Germany? No. I just don't see it happening. Oddly, he could go to Syria today....apply for some citizenship there....sit there for two weeks and get a passport, and then walk to Turkey and cross over.....to ask the Germans to allow him to stay as a Syrian. Yeah, it could be that simple, and because he's mastered the language by now.....they wouldn't even bother testing him.
A script for a movie? I was thinking so, but it's hard to believe that Germans would allow this to just drag on and on and on.
There's this American guy....Army guy....who deserted the US back in 2007 ( I know it's almost 10 years ago). The guy....Andrea Sheppard....enlisted originally in 2004. He did one single deployment into Iraq....an entire year.
He came to the end of his contract, and he had some will to re-enlist but he didn't ever want to go back to Iraq. Somehow, at least he says that....some recruitment NCO said that this was possible. It's hard to imagine some idiot from the Army swearing up and down that you could be in the Army and never go to a particular hostile zone.....but Sheppard claims this. I have my doubts about this part of the story.
So, he re-enlists, and gets sent to Germany, and in 2007.....the unit is notified that they will deploy to Iraq. He tells his commander that he was promised that he didn't have to deploy. The story is a bit humorous.....but they just won't buy into it.
Sheppard walks out the post gate and goes to a Bavarian office (his next big mistake) to ask for asylum. He gets some help from various groups, and the paperwork is put into the system.
Here is the next issue.....the German law from the 1960s/1970s.....changed. In the old days, it just said that anyone could ask for asylum in this case of American military individuals and Germany would accept the paperwork. Well...the law was changed. It now says because the US is a volunteer force now.....you need to show that your unit would have committed war crimes. Did his unit commit war crimes? So far, no one has ever proven a single episode.
So the case went back and forth. I personally think that he would have been much better off submitting the paperwork in Hessen or NRW. Locals outside of Bavaria might have bent over backwards. But this is Bavaria and they just don't see his logic in this.
No one in Bavaria will sign off on this. So last year (in the spring) a EU court was dragged in and asked if he had the right to be examined for such-and-such asylum procedure. Well....yes of course. Oddly, all that did was shuffle the paperwork back to Bavaria. The EU court didn't want to order Bavaria to sign off (this is readily apparent).
The Berlin crowd? I get the impression they really don't want to sign this paperwork either.
Today, it comes up in Bavarian news that the court in Munich. It may take weeks.....maybe months now....but it's on their calendar.
The odds? I hate to suggest this, but I think they will decline because he simply doesn't fit the profile that the law was built for. Oddly, had he just stayed on the post and refused to deploy.....the most he would have likely gotten from the Army is maybe six to twelve months in some disciplinary situation, and then they would have discharged him. Now? He's wasted almost a decade of his life in Bavaria in some wait-and-see episode, and the Bavarians may say by spring of 2017.....he has to leave.
My suspicion is that he'll use another delay tactic and ask for another EU court to render another verdict and drag this out to 2018, with another Munich court getting the case back by 2019, and then repeating this again in 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, etc.
Will Sheppard ever leave Germany? No. I just don't see it happening. Oddly, he could go to Syria today....apply for some citizenship there....sit there for two weeks and get a passport, and then walk to Turkey and cross over.....to ask the Germans to allow him to stay as a Syrian. Yeah, it could be that simple, and because he's mastered the language by now.....they wouldn't even bother testing him.
A script for a movie? I was thinking so, but it's hard to believe that Germans would allow this to just drag on and on and on.
Influences of the 2017 German Election (September)
One would like to say it's just political debates, but this election is likely to be a bit different. So my humble prediction of the influences:
1. WikiLeaks. I know that the political folks will get all hyped up and say it's not possible, but I think in the heat of this campaign, it's very likely that correspondence between the SPD players, the Linke Party, the Greens, and state-run TV news people.....will occur. If WikiLeaks finds this and puts in the open?
2. ISIS hype? If you just had two or three marginal ISIS episodes to occur, it would an influence upon the election.
3. Trump and Steinmeier? If some criticism starts up and goes on for weeks and months...it'll eventually make Germans ask if Steinmeier intentionally started the issue just to hype some anti-Trump or anti-US sentiment.
4. Austria, France and Netherlands election. All three will an influence.
5. A BER delay? Most people expect the new Berlin Airport to have another delay. The thing is....if we get to some point in the summer of 2017 and there's some really negative news (like a 18-month delay now tossed onto this)....it'll be another negative for both the CDU and SPD.
6. BREXIT. What if the Brit Parliament has a vote and goes against the exit, and then triggers massive rallies and public anger? Could that flip some German voters to side with or against the riot crowd?
7. Russian involvement in the election? Could RT or some pro-Russia group hype up the slant on the SPD or the Linke Party? Or could they side with AfD?
8. Could Erdogan dump the treaty and allow 500,000 migrants to make their way to Greece and onto Germany?
That's the thing about this election.....there are lots of outside and unusual influences.
1. WikiLeaks. I know that the political folks will get all hyped up and say it's not possible, but I think in the heat of this campaign, it's very likely that correspondence between the SPD players, the Linke Party, the Greens, and state-run TV news people.....will occur. If WikiLeaks finds this and puts in the open?
2. ISIS hype? If you just had two or three marginal ISIS episodes to occur, it would an influence upon the election.
3. Trump and Steinmeier? If some criticism starts up and goes on for weeks and months...it'll eventually make Germans ask if Steinmeier intentionally started the issue just to hype some anti-Trump or anti-US sentiment.
4. Austria, France and Netherlands election. All three will an influence.
5. A BER delay? Most people expect the new Berlin Airport to have another delay. The thing is....if we get to some point in the summer of 2017 and there's some really negative news (like a 18-month delay now tossed onto this)....it'll be another negative for both the CDU and SPD.
6. BREXIT. What if the Brit Parliament has a vote and goes against the exit, and then triggers massive rallies and public anger? Could that flip some German voters to side with or against the riot crowd?
7. Russian involvement in the election? Could RT or some pro-Russia group hype up the slant on the SPD or the Linke Party? Or could they side with AfD?
8. Could Erdogan dump the treaty and allow 500,000 migrants to make their way to Greece and onto Germany?
That's the thing about this election.....there are lots of outside and unusual influences.
Dollar Story
Back when I was in Germany around 1978....you could buy roughly 2.2 Deutsch Marks for one dollar. It was something that a kid from Bama didn't really get into but you simply viewed it as something you had to adjust to....to go out, buy beer, or buy anything on the German economy.
When I returned to Germany in 1984....things had changed....we were up to around 2.5 to 2.8 DM's per dollar. A lot more buying power. Come 1985? We were marching onto 3.4 DM's per dollar. I knew young E5's who were buying BMWs or Mercedes cars....with the VAT (tax) removed. That whole summer of 1985....I spent just about every penny I made, and got a ton of mileage out of that exchange rate.
When I came back in 1992? Well....things had simmered down. It was back down to 2.2.
By 2002, when the Euro came into existence....we were given the initial rate of roughly 1.15 Euro per dollar. As each month went by....the Euro got stronger, and the dollar weaker. At some point, about a decade ago....a dollar could only buy .68 Euro. Basically, you were looking at almost $10 to buy a regular Burger King menu-dinner.
Over the past week? Well...it's a shocker. We are now up to .93 (from last month at .88), and some German banks are talking about 1.05 by July of next year very easily. Some folks have even suggested that 1.10 is not irrational by the end of 2017.
What happens with this kind of rate? You suddenly find Americans who are interested in flights to Europe.....two week vacations.....etc.
More competitive? I'd have to agree on that.
Could it reach that 1985 level where it's two Euro per dollar? No....it'd take practically a miracle for some trend like that to occur.
So, if you were thinking of a trip for the summer of 2017 to Germany.....you might actually be able to stretch your dollar a bit more than normal.
When I returned to Germany in 1984....things had changed....we were up to around 2.5 to 2.8 DM's per dollar. A lot more buying power. Come 1985? We were marching onto 3.4 DM's per dollar. I knew young E5's who were buying BMWs or Mercedes cars....with the VAT (tax) removed. That whole summer of 1985....I spent just about every penny I made, and got a ton of mileage out of that exchange rate.
When I came back in 1992? Well....things had simmered down. It was back down to 2.2.
By 2002, when the Euro came into existence....we were given the initial rate of roughly 1.15 Euro per dollar. As each month went by....the Euro got stronger, and the dollar weaker. At some point, about a decade ago....a dollar could only buy .68 Euro. Basically, you were looking at almost $10 to buy a regular Burger King menu-dinner.
Over the past week? Well...it's a shocker. We are now up to .93 (from last month at .88), and some German banks are talking about 1.05 by July of next year very easily. Some folks have even suggested that 1.10 is not irrational by the end of 2017.
What happens with this kind of rate? You suddenly find Americans who are interested in flights to Europe.....two week vacations.....etc.
More competitive? I'd have to agree on that.
Could it reach that 1985 level where it's two Euro per dollar? No....it'd take practically a miracle for some trend like that to occur.
So, if you were thinking of a trip for the summer of 2017 to Germany.....you might actually be able to stretch your dollar a bit more than normal.
Tuesday, November 15, 2016
The "Orchestrated" German Presidency?
Back in 2012, because of legal issues with the CDU's guy who was serving as President.....there had to be a quick replacement. Because the CDU didn't have the number to ensure his replacement from their group.....the SPD put Joachim Gauck up for the job and got the Greens to go along with this.
Since then, what can be said is that Gauck has filled the shoes with no real complaints from anyone. Like most all German presidents prior to this period.....he's avoided critical commenting or political bickering. You can look over the list since 1949, and that's one of the features of this position. He is head of state but he doesn't run day to day affairs.....which is left to the chancellor.
At the beginning of 2016, most people expected Gauck to be reelected by the Bundestag to a second term. People from various parties were willing to go along with that. In June, he said "no".....he would not go up for the job again. Chief reason? He more or less hinted age (he's 76 years old).
To be honest, the job does involve travel. I would make a guess that he's on the road at least 60 days out of the year. His wife usually accompanies him (she's in her mid-50's).
The issue here is that this kinda left the door open. The CDU? They desperately talked around with possible acceptable replacements. Norbert Lammert would have been a great choice....as head of the President of the Bundestag. He was a very patient individual with limited criticisms. He said no.....he was 67 years old and intended to retire in the next year as well.
So the CDU searched and searched.....even considering a Green Party candidate. The SPD? They went very solid and strong.....early-on in this game....with the Foreign Minister....Frank Steinnmeier.
Resume-wise, Steinmeier has a four-star resume. He ran a number of years ago for Chancellor....against Merkel....and lost. Character-wise, no scandals. But typically, people who've occupied the chair of the President....have been people who didn't use the chair for critical comments. In Steinmeier, you have a guy who probably doesn't go a single day without wagging the finger at someone, or some problem, or some country.
In the past four months? Steinmeier has made a number of harsh comments at the BREXIT business, Brit Foreign Minster Boris Johnson, Hungary's Orban, and President-elect Trump. What will he do in roughly sixty days as he occupies the seat? Continue on with harsh criticism is my guess.
Here's the thing....politics in Europe is in a revolution of sorts, and various countries (with the exception of Germany) are heading strongly toward right-wing governments. One could suggest that that the AfD would be an example of the Germans heading toward right-wing status as well. For the September election in 2017 in Germany.....it would take a miracle for the SPD to win in this election. My thoughts are...somewhere back in the summer of this year, the SPD sat down and wrote out a script for how they'd orchestrate their victory, and the retirement of of Gauck would be the start of this episode.
Since summer of 2015, the German SPD Party (center-left) had expected Hillary Clinton to win, and that would have been part of their sales-job to the public. But with Trump, this can all still work out by using critical comments by a newly seated Steinmeier to slam the US government, it's foreign policy and President Trump.
Replacing Steinmeier? That's a curious thing. The SPD is bringing their four-star character at the EU....Schulz....back to Berlin. He's whispered to be the replacement to Steinmeier. Another guy prone to daily use of criticism? Yeah.
A lot of CDU folks look at the whole dynamic that they've edged themselves into and question how they got to this point in the game of politics.
In three weeks, the Austrian President's election will end, and the Freedom Party candidate (Hofer) will likely win. This will take the focus off Trump and the US for at least a month, while Berlin-crowd drums up negativity about this right-wing guy winning over the Green Party guy. You might sit back and watch for various criticisms by Steinmeier to already start.
My guess is that by February and March, Steinmeier's number one job is criticisms of President Trump's foreign policy and increased relations with Putin. As May comes, with an obvious set-up in France of a right-wing candidate versus a ultra-right-wing candidate.....the efforts of Steinmeier and German state-run TV will start to puzzle Germans and ridicule will start up about both. Rather than focus on internal German issues (immigration, asylum, crime, etc)...the effort is to focus on non-German issues.
By August as we enter the last month of the election, there's some worried heads over at the SPD on how this whole thing was orchestrated and expected to go a certain way, and it's just not going to be that way. The big loser of this orchestrated effort? In the end, I think German state-run TV will take the big hit for 2017.
Just my humble opinion.
Since then, what can be said is that Gauck has filled the shoes with no real complaints from anyone. Like most all German presidents prior to this period.....he's avoided critical commenting or political bickering. You can look over the list since 1949, and that's one of the features of this position. He is head of state but he doesn't run day to day affairs.....which is left to the chancellor.
At the beginning of 2016, most people expected Gauck to be reelected by the Bundestag to a second term. People from various parties were willing to go along with that. In June, he said "no".....he would not go up for the job again. Chief reason? He more or less hinted age (he's 76 years old).
To be honest, the job does involve travel. I would make a guess that he's on the road at least 60 days out of the year. His wife usually accompanies him (she's in her mid-50's).
The issue here is that this kinda left the door open. The CDU? They desperately talked around with possible acceptable replacements. Norbert Lammert would have been a great choice....as head of the President of the Bundestag. He was a very patient individual with limited criticisms. He said no.....he was 67 years old and intended to retire in the next year as well.
So the CDU searched and searched.....even considering a Green Party candidate. The SPD? They went very solid and strong.....early-on in this game....with the Foreign Minister....Frank Steinnmeier.
Resume-wise, Steinmeier has a four-star resume. He ran a number of years ago for Chancellor....against Merkel....and lost. Character-wise, no scandals. But typically, people who've occupied the chair of the President....have been people who didn't use the chair for critical comments. In Steinmeier, you have a guy who probably doesn't go a single day without wagging the finger at someone, or some problem, or some country.
In the past four months? Steinmeier has made a number of harsh comments at the BREXIT business, Brit Foreign Minster Boris Johnson, Hungary's Orban, and President-elect Trump. What will he do in roughly sixty days as he occupies the seat? Continue on with harsh criticism is my guess.
Here's the thing....politics in Europe is in a revolution of sorts, and various countries (with the exception of Germany) are heading strongly toward right-wing governments. One could suggest that that the AfD would be an example of the Germans heading toward right-wing status as well. For the September election in 2017 in Germany.....it would take a miracle for the SPD to win in this election. My thoughts are...somewhere back in the summer of this year, the SPD sat down and wrote out a script for how they'd orchestrate their victory, and the retirement of of Gauck would be the start of this episode.
Since summer of 2015, the German SPD Party (center-left) had expected Hillary Clinton to win, and that would have been part of their sales-job to the public. But with Trump, this can all still work out by using critical comments by a newly seated Steinmeier to slam the US government, it's foreign policy and President Trump.
Replacing Steinmeier? That's a curious thing. The SPD is bringing their four-star character at the EU....Schulz....back to Berlin. He's whispered to be the replacement to Steinmeier. Another guy prone to daily use of criticism? Yeah.
A lot of CDU folks look at the whole dynamic that they've edged themselves into and question how they got to this point in the game of politics.
In three weeks, the Austrian President's election will end, and the Freedom Party candidate (Hofer) will likely win. This will take the focus off Trump and the US for at least a month, while Berlin-crowd drums up negativity about this right-wing guy winning over the Green Party guy. You might sit back and watch for various criticisms by Steinmeier to already start.
My guess is that by February and March, Steinmeier's number one job is criticisms of President Trump's foreign policy and increased relations with Putin. As May comes, with an obvious set-up in France of a right-wing candidate versus a ultra-right-wing candidate.....the efforts of Steinmeier and German state-run TV will start to puzzle Germans and ridicule will start up about both. Rather than focus on internal German issues (immigration, asylum, crime, etc)...the effort is to focus on non-German issues.
By August as we enter the last month of the election, there's some worried heads over at the SPD on how this whole thing was orchestrated and expected to go a certain way, and it's just not going to be that way. The big loser of this orchestrated effort? In the end, I think German state-run TV will take the big hit for 2017.
Just my humble opinion.
Monday, November 14, 2016
Victoriae Populi Phobia?
There is a new phobia which a German intellectual might suggest as existing.....Victoriae Populi. The irrational fear of populists.
I sat last week watching two different German public chat forums on state-run TV, where it was obvious that German politicians and intellectuals are quiet fearful of this new group.
The problem is....the more you examine this populist talk...you come to this weird reality. Populism mostly exists because the public wants things to occur, or gifts to be given to them.
I sat last week watching two different German public chat forums on state-run TV, where it was obvious that German politicians and intellectuals are quiet fearful of this new group.
The problem is....the more you examine this populist talk...you come to this weird reality. Populism mostly exists because the public wants things to occur, or gifts to be given to them.
The more you examine this definition.....you realize that most political parties (doesn't matter if they are American or German) gift their voters or vote stupid things to occur already. To say that Trump supporters are getting something special or way outside of the norm.....well....any normal party could grasp this swing of voters and the frustrations that exist.....and move toward that plateau.
The CDU, the SPD, the Green Party, the Linke Party.....are all populist-magnets in their own way. The Greens actually grasped their way to gift people or react to extreme views back thirty years ago. They were able to talk roughly 8-percent of German society into becoming solid Green voters. They made promises and stuck to them. The Green Party is about as populist as any other party (even the AfD).
So we come to intellectuals and this whole 'get-worried' concept. There is this irrational fear of populists because they just might not follow the scripted scenario that intellectuals suggest you follow. Smart people listen to them....therefore you should only go and heed the words of the wise-men. Populism is dangerous and threatens the lives of all.
On the populists scale.....Hitler, John F. Kennedy and Ronald Reagan? All three are populists. Kohl, Merkel and Boris Johnson? All populists.
The minute you run for something and you promise something....social security reform, tax reform, or immigration reform....you've hooked your wagon onto a populist horse. It's hard to avoid saying otherwise....unless you really want to act dopey like some news journalists and pretend that only bad people can be populists.
So, if you think you've got the Victoriae Populi Phoibia? Well....is there any way of fixing this or overcoming this irrational fear? No. Not unless you've got a fifth of Jack Daniels and an evening to work on this terrible irrational fear.
The CDU, the SPD, the Green Party, the Linke Party.....are all populist-magnets in their own way. The Greens actually grasped their way to gift people or react to extreme views back thirty years ago. They were able to talk roughly 8-percent of German society into becoming solid Green voters. They made promises and stuck to them. The Green Party is about as populist as any other party (even the AfD).
So we come to intellectuals and this whole 'get-worried' concept. There is this irrational fear of populists because they just might not follow the scripted scenario that intellectuals suggest you follow. Smart people listen to them....therefore you should only go and heed the words of the wise-men. Populism is dangerous and threatens the lives of all.
On the populists scale.....Hitler, John F. Kennedy and Ronald Reagan? All three are populists. Kohl, Merkel and Boris Johnson? All populists.
The minute you run for something and you promise something....social security reform, tax reform, or immigration reform....you've hooked your wagon onto a populist horse. It's hard to avoid saying otherwise....unless you really want to act dopey like some news journalists and pretend that only bad people can be populists.
So, if you think you've got the Victoriae Populi Phoibia? Well....is there any way of fixing this or overcoming this irrational fear? No. Not unless you've got a fifth of Jack Daniels and an evening to work on this terrible irrational fear.
Sunday, November 13, 2016
When the Downsizing Does Come in Wiesbaden
While I may be ahead of the power-curve....I think what will occur in 2017 is an announcement that the US is downsizing its contribution to NATO....in effect.....closing down bases in Germany. Maybe not all.....but the vast majority. So, this is gut feeling for Wiesbaden's US Army property and how the city will handle the re-distribution.
1. Timing: I don't see anything being handed over until 2020 at the earliest, and some of these might go into 2022 before you see every single property turned over. Renovation? You could be looking at 2025 to 2030 before all of this is wrapped up.
2. The Clay Kaserne Runway. Bluntly, the city will absolutely NOT allow the runway to be taken by the Frankfurt Airport. I also doubt that they'd allow it to be bought or rented by any cargo company. So the only two possibilities will be some sail-plane operation, or some private race course/auto testing ground.
3. Clay Kaserne operational buildings. If you were looking for university expansion or start-up business structures.....it's prime property. Some are in great shape. Some less so.
4. Clay Kaserne housing. These are mostly new structures...roughly 120 of them. Most would require no renovation and the city might do well to run a house rental operation for affordable properites for families. The one negative is that there is only one bus that runs through every thirty minutes.
5. American Arms Hotel. The city has taken possession of it and had a plan on the wall for use as university student housing. The problem was.....no cash at the time for massive renovation. Then the refugees came, and plans got shifted. It's now housing a number of refugee families for an undetermined period (some suggest this will end by 2018). I think they will find the money as refugee requirement ends and do a massive 2-year renovation job on the building.....then flip it to affordable student housing.
6. The Earhart Hotel. Plans still being discussed by the city. I think the same deal will come up....minor renovation and flip over to student housing as well.
7. Hainerberg 'Hill'. You have a million-Euro view from that hill and it begs for high-income condos. I think the old BX and the commissary will be quickly torn down and the property reused for upper-level condo construction. The apartment houses for the rest of the post? Some will be renovated and upgraded....some will be torn down. The school complex.....currently under a massive renovation deal....will be shifted and used for a German school. The new BX? Probably will become a REWE or Aldi operation (although it's really too big for that). The hotel? Probably to be sold off to some chain hotel operation.
8. The Bierstadt Strasse Housing. It would not surprise me if they tore the whole thing down and made a city park out of the property. Being adjacent to both Wiesbaden and Bierstadt, it would make sense.
9. Aukamm Housing. Right now.....Wiesbaden is thinking that it's in a growth period and within twelve years....will reach 300,000 people. It would be a good location to knock down all of these and put up a couple of four-story apartment complexes....like the ones over in the old Lindsey Air Station area. Maybe invent some nicely landscaped area like the Euro-Quarter in town.
There will be lots of opportunities here for Wiesbaden to get ahead and think the next hundred years in terms of growth and reuse. The city could become an educational hub for a number of public and private institutions. It's just that the big picture of the end-result....won't be apparent for probably fifteen years.
1. Timing: I don't see anything being handed over until 2020 at the earliest, and some of these might go into 2022 before you see every single property turned over. Renovation? You could be looking at 2025 to 2030 before all of this is wrapped up.
2. The Clay Kaserne Runway. Bluntly, the city will absolutely NOT allow the runway to be taken by the Frankfurt Airport. I also doubt that they'd allow it to be bought or rented by any cargo company. So the only two possibilities will be some sail-plane operation, or some private race course/auto testing ground.
3. Clay Kaserne operational buildings. If you were looking for university expansion or start-up business structures.....it's prime property. Some are in great shape. Some less so.
4. Clay Kaserne housing. These are mostly new structures...roughly 120 of them. Most would require no renovation and the city might do well to run a house rental operation for affordable properites for families. The one negative is that there is only one bus that runs through every thirty minutes.
5. American Arms Hotel. The city has taken possession of it and had a plan on the wall for use as university student housing. The problem was.....no cash at the time for massive renovation. Then the refugees came, and plans got shifted. It's now housing a number of refugee families for an undetermined period (some suggest this will end by 2018). I think they will find the money as refugee requirement ends and do a massive 2-year renovation job on the building.....then flip it to affordable student housing.
6. The Earhart Hotel. Plans still being discussed by the city. I think the same deal will come up....minor renovation and flip over to student housing as well.
7. Hainerberg 'Hill'. You have a million-Euro view from that hill and it begs for high-income condos. I think the old BX and the commissary will be quickly torn down and the property reused for upper-level condo construction. The apartment houses for the rest of the post? Some will be renovated and upgraded....some will be torn down. The school complex.....currently under a massive renovation deal....will be shifted and used for a German school. The new BX? Probably will become a REWE or Aldi operation (although it's really too big for that). The hotel? Probably to be sold off to some chain hotel operation.
8. The Bierstadt Strasse Housing. It would not surprise me if they tore the whole thing down and made a city park out of the property. Being adjacent to both Wiesbaden and Bierstadt, it would make sense.
9. Aukamm Housing. Right now.....Wiesbaden is thinking that it's in a growth period and within twelve years....will reach 300,000 people. It would be a good location to knock down all of these and put up a couple of four-story apartment complexes....like the ones over in the old Lindsey Air Station area. Maybe invent some nicely landscaped area like the Euro-Quarter in town.
There will be lots of opportunities here for Wiesbaden to get ahead and think the next hundred years in terms of growth and reuse. The city could become an educational hub for a number of public and private institutions. It's just that the big picture of the end-result....won't be apparent for probably fifteen years.
When News Crosses the Line
By late Thursday, the New York Times had done something that shocked some folks. They put out a one-page memo to the general public....admitting they'd screwed up massively, vowing to reform the newspaper, and report HONESTLY.
Why?
For about six months, the NYT had gone and laid out various stories which were slanted to a anti-Trump theme. On Tuesday morning....they had their graphics all laid out and they actually had one slide which indicated it was a 84-percent chance that Hillary would win.
Oddly enough....virtually every major state-run news service in Europe....copied off that NYT theme....for six months as well. Even here in Germany, they had a slide come up and noted the 84-percent chance, and that Trump's chances were virtually impossible to achieve.
Twelve hours later....you could sit and watch ARD reporters stand there in utter shock and basically unable to explain to German viewers or themselves what happened.
My humble guess is that they were on their Twitter and Facebook account with the Washington Post and New York Times friends.....trying have them explain what went wrong. French reporters were doing it.....Danish reporters.....Italian.....Spanish.....etc.
The journalists for the NYT were embarrassed by their lack of attention and inability to capture what was happening in the US. They were living and reporting within a sphere. They weren't in Tulsa, or Coos Bay, or Dothan. They were writing mostly imaginary script for their 'fantasy world'. The amusing thing is that they were selling this internationally to other folks as fact, when it was just good creative writing and polling.
And now? Rededicating? To what?
I look at the public-run news media of Germany. They both produce different segments for each day, and run tons of regular news and documentary-type news pieces. Some follow the same mentality and philosophy of the NYT. These are people who also live within a sphere and use their position to 'preach' to the general public.
Oddly, I've come to notice editorial pieces done on both networks now.....maybe five or six times a month now.....by journalists. You never get some editorial piece by some Bamberg hairdresser, or some Stuttgart IT guy, or some Trier used car-dealer.
In some ways, I see the German public-run news media as walking down a fairly long pier and talking non-stop until they realize they might have made up some whopper stories, slanted a few stories too far, or made some fantasy script that can't work truthfully. Like the NYT, I think some day will come where the staffs at ARD and ZDF will meet (like the Times managers), and discuss the fact that they really screwed up, and they need to rededicate themselves to writing factual material.
As for the Times recovering? I would have my doubts. But if you are at the absolute bottom on trust.....there's only two ways to go....stay on the flat line of creative stuff, or start to really tell truthful stories.
Why?
For about six months, the NYT had gone and laid out various stories which were slanted to a anti-Trump theme. On Tuesday morning....they had their graphics all laid out and they actually had one slide which indicated it was a 84-percent chance that Hillary would win.
Oddly enough....virtually every major state-run news service in Europe....copied off that NYT theme....for six months as well. Even here in Germany, they had a slide come up and noted the 84-percent chance, and that Trump's chances were virtually impossible to achieve.
Twelve hours later....you could sit and watch ARD reporters stand there in utter shock and basically unable to explain to German viewers or themselves what happened.
My humble guess is that they were on their Twitter and Facebook account with the Washington Post and New York Times friends.....trying have them explain what went wrong. French reporters were doing it.....Danish reporters.....Italian.....Spanish.....etc.
The journalists for the NYT were embarrassed by their lack of attention and inability to capture what was happening in the US. They were living and reporting within a sphere. They weren't in Tulsa, or Coos Bay, or Dothan. They were writing mostly imaginary script for their 'fantasy world'. The amusing thing is that they were selling this internationally to other folks as fact, when it was just good creative writing and polling.
And now? Rededicating? To what?
I look at the public-run news media of Germany. They both produce different segments for each day, and run tons of regular news and documentary-type news pieces. Some follow the same mentality and philosophy of the NYT. These are people who also live within a sphere and use their position to 'preach' to the general public.
Oddly, I've come to notice editorial pieces done on both networks now.....maybe five or six times a month now.....by journalists. You never get some editorial piece by some Bamberg hairdresser, or some Stuttgart IT guy, or some Trier used car-dealer.
In some ways, I see the German public-run news media as walking down a fairly long pier and talking non-stop until they realize they might have made up some whopper stories, slanted a few stories too far, or made some fantasy script that can't work truthfully. Like the NYT, I think some day will come where the staffs at ARD and ZDF will meet (like the Times managers), and discuss the fact that they really screwed up, and they need to rededicate themselves to writing factual material.
As for the Times recovering? I would have my doubts. But if you are at the absolute bottom on trust.....there's only two ways to go....stay on the flat line of creative stuff, or start to really tell truthful stories.
Saturday, November 12, 2016
The Saint Martin's Day Story
Germans have this respected holiday....which isn't a off-day or anything, but generally recognized by the public....Saint Martin's Day.
The original Saint Martin was a Roman soldier who converted at some point and became a monk. The legend holds that one day.....he saw someone who was cold, and he cut half of his robe to give to the poor guy. Folks thought that was a very humble thing and recognized the guy.
So this holiday has developed in Germany around this one saint. What happens these days is that church bells will ring....ceremonies will be held in local churches....and kids will go out with lit lanterns and get candy in return. You could refer to it as a Christian-like Halloween...with a good character instead of anything scary. Generally, in the Rhine Valley area.....you will socialize with neighbors or relatives and it'll be some lite social occasion.
So, this is the rest of my story.....which revolves around Saint Martin's Day for the most part.
We have a community....a Hessen town of 60-odd thousand people. I won't give the name or ID the town....other than to say that it's fairly industrialized.
This is a town that was impacted by Turk migration in the 1960s because of the industrialization. Out of the 60-odd thousand population....at least 15,000 are Turk or "other" (the new immigrants, Syrians, Iraqis, Africans, etc).
It doesn't matter where you go in this town....the reflection is multi-culty. On the positive side, jobs exist and the industrial strength of the town isn't going away.
The principal Lutheran church authority in town has looked at the demographics and the make-up of the town, and tried to envision how Saint Martin's Day will continue on. The suggestion to the public is that they need to modify the holiday and simply call it the "Licht Fest" (the light fest). This would avoid any religious connection and everyone could participate in some way.
German residents in town? They haven't exactly taken to this idea of "change".
No, they'd just rather not give up the Saint Martin's Day term, and call it a "Licht Fest".
You can sense that down the road, there's going to be some confrontation coming. Here is one element of the community trying to undo what has existed for several hundred years in the community.
The problem I see is that there are literally thousands upon thousands of these religious or traditional German things which won't easily fit into a non-German's lifestyle. To have some effort put upon modifying these German traditions? These are Germans....stubborn to the core. I just don't see things easily undone.
The original Saint Martin was a Roman soldier who converted at some point and became a monk. The legend holds that one day.....he saw someone who was cold, and he cut half of his robe to give to the poor guy. Folks thought that was a very humble thing and recognized the guy.
So this holiday has developed in Germany around this one saint. What happens these days is that church bells will ring....ceremonies will be held in local churches....and kids will go out with lit lanterns and get candy in return. You could refer to it as a Christian-like Halloween...with a good character instead of anything scary. Generally, in the Rhine Valley area.....you will socialize with neighbors or relatives and it'll be some lite social occasion.
So, this is the rest of my story.....which revolves around Saint Martin's Day for the most part.
We have a community....a Hessen town of 60-odd thousand people. I won't give the name or ID the town....other than to say that it's fairly industrialized.
This is a town that was impacted by Turk migration in the 1960s because of the industrialization. Out of the 60-odd thousand population....at least 15,000 are Turk or "other" (the new immigrants, Syrians, Iraqis, Africans, etc).
It doesn't matter where you go in this town....the reflection is multi-culty. On the positive side, jobs exist and the industrial strength of the town isn't going away.
The principal Lutheran church authority in town has looked at the demographics and the make-up of the town, and tried to envision how Saint Martin's Day will continue on. The suggestion to the public is that they need to modify the holiday and simply call it the "Licht Fest" (the light fest). This would avoid any religious connection and everyone could participate in some way.
German residents in town? They haven't exactly taken to this idea of "change".
No, they'd just rather not give up the Saint Martin's Day term, and call it a "Licht Fest".
You can sense that down the road, there's going to be some confrontation coming. Here is one element of the community trying to undo what has existed for several hundred years in the community.
The problem I see is that there are literally thousands upon thousands of these religious or traditional German things which won't easily fit into a non-German's lifestyle. To have some effort put upon modifying these German traditions? These are Germans....stubborn to the core. I just don't see things easily undone.
Private Autobahns? Really?
So, this morning in Germany, as you open the Bild or various newspapers....there's this rumor story. Most will carry it on page one or two.
The story is that to get around the EU frustration with this autobahn 'fee' for visitors to Germany using the autobahn system.....the German government is going invent a way through the Basic Law (the Constitution of Germany) for private companies to own the autobahn system.
If you suggest this to some German....they will immediately ask fifty questions and be critical of such an idea.
So far, the basic idea or belief is that mostly banks and insurance companies would buy into this deal. No one says that all autobahns would be owned by one company. The other side of this is that states themselves (Hessen or Bavaria, for example) might get into the deal and own parts of the Autobahns themselves.
This draft law? It's only be discussed behind doors and likely only to be heard in about a month there in the Bundestag.
The problems with this? You could probably bring in five or six business people and they'd mostly laugh over the implications.
For example.....you could have Saudi Arabia come in and buy a large segment of A7 from the Danish border all the way to the Austrian border. Or you could have some US bank come in.....like the Lehmen Brothers bankrupt group, and fix up some weird package to sell A7 'papers' through some tax-free gimmick and walk away with no taxes paid on their profits.
Would the autobahn system be kept up, or would some audit have to occur yearly to force the owners to fix their piece of the autobahn system?
Would people get angry about this and suddenly lessen their use of the German autobahn system?
Right now, it appears that one 'brake' on this deal is that private companies will only be allowed to own up to 49.9 percent, with the remainder held by the federal government or state government.
Pushing this through before the October 2017 election? Yes. Opposition parties to this? I doubt if the Greens or Linke Party would support this, and it might not even sell well to the SPD?
The story is that to get around the EU frustration with this autobahn 'fee' for visitors to Germany using the autobahn system.....the German government is going invent a way through the Basic Law (the Constitution of Germany) for private companies to own the autobahn system.
If you suggest this to some German....they will immediately ask fifty questions and be critical of such an idea.
So far, the basic idea or belief is that mostly banks and insurance companies would buy into this deal. No one says that all autobahns would be owned by one company. The other side of this is that states themselves (Hessen or Bavaria, for example) might get into the deal and own parts of the Autobahns themselves.
This draft law? It's only be discussed behind doors and likely only to be heard in about a month there in the Bundestag.
The problems with this? You could probably bring in five or six business people and they'd mostly laugh over the implications.
For example.....you could have Saudi Arabia come in and buy a large segment of A7 from the Danish border all the way to the Austrian border. Or you could have some US bank come in.....like the Lehmen Brothers bankrupt group, and fix up some weird package to sell A7 'papers' through some tax-free gimmick and walk away with no taxes paid on their profits.
Would the autobahn system be kept up, or would some audit have to occur yearly to force the owners to fix their piece of the autobahn system?
Would people get angry about this and suddenly lessen their use of the German autobahn system?
Right now, it appears that one 'brake' on this deal is that private companies will only be allowed to own up to 49.9 percent, with the remainder held by the federal government or state government.
Pushing this through before the October 2017 election? Yes. Opposition parties to this? I doubt if the Greens or Linke Party would support this, and it might not even sell well to the SPD?
Spiegel's Next Cover
Entitled: The End of the World.
For some Germans, deep into politics, it's a scary thing because Trump changed the dynamics of elections, and we are eleven months away from the next German national election.
So yeah, there is some fear that a regular traditional German election in October of 2017 will not occur. One can laugh about this "worry" but intellectuals take this worry serious.
In some way, this will turn into some fake hype where the German politicians and intellectuals pretend they are the Avengers (Capt Germany, Hulkstein, Eisen-Man (Iron Man), and Germania (a female Thor).....and they are fighting off the evil American Loki-Trump.
Do Germans need this kind of fake opera stuff, without much substance? With real world complaints, high taxes, and rampant crime....it's hard to imagine Hulkstein in some Berlin fight with Loki-Trump.
Thursday, November 10, 2016
Merkel's Message to Trump
At some point yesterday (Wednesday)....a carefully crafted message was delivered to President-elect Trump, from Germany's Chancellor Merkel. There were a number of lines in the message to convey positive sentiments about the future relationship. But at some point, there was this one odd paragraph:
In a way, Merkel is staking out some territory to help her and the CDU in January as things progress. Let us not forget that three state elections in Germany occur in the Spring, and the national election in October of 2017.
Trump will likely just let the message go, and not say much.
The other side of this coin? Respect for rule of law and political views is something that evolves into a Pandora's box for most Germans. As long as your political views are agreeable with the general state-run news media....things are fine. You got a political view which isn't in our sphere of thinking....well, that just won't be acceptable.
Trump might decide to send a carefully crafted message back....discussing the fine relationship of the United States with Germany, and that he hopes respect for economic freedoms, creative talents, commerce, and neighbors of Germany are part of the deal. He might hint that he expects several government changeovers in Europe this next year...all leaning further right.
The footnote here? Well....the SPD folks are likely sitting in a conference room and almost giggling in delight that they will have only two serious topics on their 2017 political agenda...anti-Trump/anti-US. By harping on those weekly....the SPD hopes to take down the CDU easily. Chat over immigration, refugees, and integration? Forget about it.....it won't happen.
“Germany’s ties with the United States of America are deeper than with any country outside of the European Union. Germany and America are bound by common values — democracy, freedom, as well as respect for the rule of law and the dignity of each and every person, regardless of their origin, skin color, creed, gender, sexual orientation, or political views. It is based on these values that I wish to offer close cooperation, both with me personally and between our countries’ governments.”
In a way, Merkel is staking out some territory to help her and the CDU in January as things progress. Let us not forget that three state elections in Germany occur in the Spring, and the national election in October of 2017.
Trump will likely just let the message go, and not say much.
The other side of this coin? Respect for rule of law and political views is something that evolves into a Pandora's box for most Germans. As long as your political views are agreeable with the general state-run news media....things are fine. You got a political view which isn't in our sphere of thinking....well, that just won't be acceptable.
Trump might decide to send a carefully crafted message back....discussing the fine relationship of the United States with Germany, and that he hopes respect for economic freedoms, creative talents, commerce, and neighbors of Germany are part of the deal. He might hint that he expects several government changeovers in Europe this next year...all leaning further right.
The footnote here? Well....the SPD folks are likely sitting in a conference room and almost giggling in delight that they will have only two serious topics on their 2017 political agenda...anti-Trump/anti-US. By harping on those weekly....the SPD hopes to take down the CDU easily. Chat over immigration, refugees, and integration? Forget about it.....it won't happen.
Germany and Intellectuals
For any American who has been around for five to ten years in the German sphere of 'influence'....you come to this moment where you recognize the term 'intellectual' and have some definition of the category of person you are dealing with.
I think my first ID of the term 'intellectual' revolved around the idea of someone who was a learned person or a academic.....meaning someone who who had decent collection of a thought process....a Socrates-like person who asked questions and sought understanding.
Over the last two decades, after missed a great deal of history on Socrates, Aristotle, and Plato in my youth (the three likely got mentioned once or twice in grade school, and maybe four or five times in my university period).....I went to observe their character and what made them intellectuals. Oddly, I came to realize that the three had one similar characteristic....that they were open to different views and sought to grasp the topic at hand...in whatever complex or in-depth nature that existed.
No one really sits down and notes the first German intellectual. It would be curious to know.....but I'm guessing that a guy asking a lot of stupid questions and seeking to hear a totally open and balanced debate....probably met with some quick end.
In the olden days....1500s to 1800s.....you generally got on the intellectually-recognized list of Germans because you wrote some books (few existed in those days) so anyone who dared to publish and got their works out in the open.....opened up the door for more folks to ask questions and seek more understanding.
Gottfried Wilhelm Leibniz and Christian Thomasius both end up as the early pioneers of German intellectualism (from the 1600s period). Both wrote widely and became noted in their time, and are very widely discussed today in Germany.
As you get into the 1700s....Moses Mendelssohnn, Immanuel Kant, Gotthold Ephraim Lessing, Johann Wolfgang von Goethe, Friedrich Schiller and Johann Gottlieb Fichte end up at the very top of the intellectual list....for their writings.
Marx and Nietzsche get tacked onto the list by the end of 1800s.
The curious thing that you come to note is that none of these gentlemen were ever much into politics, news reporting, or any glamour type behavior. They might have sipped some fine wine, eaten some tasty French food on occasion, and seen an opera or two....but none were public figures.
So you take this image of intellectuals in the period before WW II, and then you start to look at what intellectualism has become today....heavily gripped (handcuffed perhaps is a better word) to social behavior, political charm or persuasion, and often attached to news networks or literary publications (sadly, I have to include newspapers).
On a typical night in Germany.....you've five to ten intellectuals attached to some TV news segment or chat forum, and trying to use their gentle art of persuasion and intellectualism in an odd way. Unlike their original cast of Plato, Socrates or Aristotle.....who beckoned for an open mind and discussed all possible angles.....these newer class of intellectual are mostly attached to one single thought process....one single solution.....one political argument.....one single persuasion. It's a debate but you just keep waiting for real information to flow so you can understand the entire discussion, and you come to realize.....well....it's mostly a one-sided show.
The German state-TV folks will go and line up five or six of these folks.....who all seem to have some certification or award from some group of fine folks....letting you know that they've been to Humbolt, or spent three years in Washington, DC, or travel widely to Moscow often.
You look at history and these 500-pound 'guerrillas' (Plato, Socrates, and Aristotle) that were fairly open to general debate and asked a lot of questions....but in this German demonstration of intellectualism....there aren't any questions....just statements and solutions of a one-sided nature.
Does the average German get captivated by this? It's hard to say. If you had a choice of some Star Wars movie or some intellectual live chat forum.....most folks would say they'd probably like to watch Darth for 6th time instead of an hour-long intellectual chat with limited understanding.
How many intellectuals exist in Germany today? That would be a great question to ask state-run ARD or ZDF, but they'd probably prefer that it's a limited number. My guess is that out of 82-million Germans.....probably forty million will confess they are either intellectually capable, which the German poll guy will have to figure out five or six test questions to disqualify a bunch of folks and get the number down to 350 intellectuals.
Are there more intellectuals in Germany versus Austria, or the UK? Well.....it's best not to ask that question because it might shock folks just how many intellectuals exist in Austria today, or in Cambridge for example.
To be blunt, I'm not really against or frustrated by the TV acts of the intellectual crowd. Face it....state-run TV has to put on something to keep learned German individuals thinking that they are getting their value out of the 17.50 Euro a month on the TV tax. This intellectual argument hour.....is a relatively low-cost production....way more cheaper than some krimi-murder two-hour movie, or some game-show involving b-grade actors or German promis.
I guess my only negative here is that you'd just like for once for some moderator to shock the four intellectual guys on the show....by bringing out some Socrates-minded guy who starts asking more questions and focusing folks on the vast landscape of the subject.
So, I'll let the topic here just lie there....hopefully not to be wasted for some intellectual argument of a limited nature.
I think my first ID of the term 'intellectual' revolved around the idea of someone who was a learned person or a academic.....meaning someone who who had decent collection of a thought process....a Socrates-like person who asked questions and sought understanding.
Over the last two decades, after missed a great deal of history on Socrates, Aristotle, and Plato in my youth (the three likely got mentioned once or twice in grade school, and maybe four or five times in my university period).....I went to observe their character and what made them intellectuals. Oddly, I came to realize that the three had one similar characteristic....that they were open to different views and sought to grasp the topic at hand...in whatever complex or in-depth nature that existed.
No one really sits down and notes the first German intellectual. It would be curious to know.....but I'm guessing that a guy asking a lot of stupid questions and seeking to hear a totally open and balanced debate....probably met with some quick end.
In the olden days....1500s to 1800s.....you generally got on the intellectually-recognized list of Germans because you wrote some books (few existed in those days) so anyone who dared to publish and got their works out in the open.....opened up the door for more folks to ask questions and seek more understanding.
Gottfried Wilhelm Leibniz and Christian Thomasius both end up as the early pioneers of German intellectualism (from the 1600s period). Both wrote widely and became noted in their time, and are very widely discussed today in Germany.
As you get into the 1700s....Moses Mendelssohnn, Immanuel Kant, Gotthold Ephraim Lessing, Johann Wolfgang von Goethe, Friedrich Schiller and Johann Gottlieb Fichte end up at the very top of the intellectual list....for their writings.
Marx and Nietzsche get tacked onto the list by the end of 1800s.
The curious thing that you come to note is that none of these gentlemen were ever much into politics, news reporting, or any glamour type behavior. They might have sipped some fine wine, eaten some tasty French food on occasion, and seen an opera or two....but none were public figures.
So you take this image of intellectuals in the period before WW II, and then you start to look at what intellectualism has become today....heavily gripped (handcuffed perhaps is a better word) to social behavior, political charm or persuasion, and often attached to news networks or literary publications (sadly, I have to include newspapers).
On a typical night in Germany.....you've five to ten intellectuals attached to some TV news segment or chat forum, and trying to use their gentle art of persuasion and intellectualism in an odd way. Unlike their original cast of Plato, Socrates or Aristotle.....who beckoned for an open mind and discussed all possible angles.....these newer class of intellectual are mostly attached to one single thought process....one single solution.....one political argument.....one single persuasion. It's a debate but you just keep waiting for real information to flow so you can understand the entire discussion, and you come to realize.....well....it's mostly a one-sided show.
The German state-TV folks will go and line up five or six of these folks.....who all seem to have some certification or award from some group of fine folks....letting you know that they've been to Humbolt, or spent three years in Washington, DC, or travel widely to Moscow often.
You look at history and these 500-pound 'guerrillas' (Plato, Socrates, and Aristotle) that were fairly open to general debate and asked a lot of questions....but in this German demonstration of intellectualism....there aren't any questions....just statements and solutions of a one-sided nature.
Does the average German get captivated by this? It's hard to say. If you had a choice of some Star Wars movie or some intellectual live chat forum.....most folks would say they'd probably like to watch Darth for 6th time instead of an hour-long intellectual chat with limited understanding.
How many intellectuals exist in Germany today? That would be a great question to ask state-run ARD or ZDF, but they'd probably prefer that it's a limited number. My guess is that out of 82-million Germans.....probably forty million will confess they are either intellectually capable, which the German poll guy will have to figure out five or six test questions to disqualify a bunch of folks and get the number down to 350 intellectuals.
Are there more intellectuals in Germany versus Austria, or the UK? Well.....it's best not to ask that question because it might shock folks just how many intellectuals exist in Austria today, or in Cambridge for example.
To be blunt, I'm not really against or frustrated by the TV acts of the intellectual crowd. Face it....state-run TV has to put on something to keep learned German individuals thinking that they are getting their value out of the 17.50 Euro a month on the TV tax. This intellectual argument hour.....is a relatively low-cost production....way more cheaper than some krimi-murder two-hour movie, or some game-show involving b-grade actors or German promis.
I guess my only negative here is that you'd just like for once for some moderator to shock the four intellectual guys on the show....by bringing out some Socrates-minded guy who starts asking more questions and focusing folks on the vast landscape of the subject.
So, I'll let the topic here just lie there....hopefully not to be wasted for some intellectual argument of a limited nature.
Public-Run TV and the Anti-Trump Theme
Maishberger ran a ARD public chat forum last night. Topic? Trump.
It was an odd line-up of people that Maishberger gathered for this talking group. Afar-left retired political figure. An intellectual retired journalist from ARD. Alice Schwarzer, who is a feminist gal and very anti-immigrant....who is fairly known around Germany. Some PR German gal who was all pro-Trump. A BILD journalist. And Eric T. Hansen, the lone American on the group.
Hansen is an unusual character. He's an American Mormon, who met a German gal.....married her....went onto a German university....settled into Berlin, and has written a couple of well-received books. It should be noted that he tends to see humor in most events and can be sarcastic. His book....Planet Germany.....written a decade ago....was a best seller in Germany and does some sharp but humor-filled criticisms of German intellectualism.
At some point, the retired journalist hyped up "Rational Politik". It's an invented word that basically covers the idea that you need professional political people running governments and conducting foreign relations because they are trained and have the right way of looking at problems. Hint? Well....insiders can only run the insider system. You wouldn't want the general public rationalizing the issue and coming to a totally different objective.
By the end of this show, you got a fairly big dose of 'problems with Trump'. I think Hansen did try to open their minds just a bit....but with a German, you'd need a ton of persuasion.
Over the past year or two...I've come to the idea that you need public and open forums with a dialog that goes in various directions and allows people to grasp the depth or lack-of-depth to a problem. When you have a bunch of people trying to make this a one-solution problem or limiting debate to only one side....it doesn't work. People are generally smart enough to figure things out on their own.....they don't need intellectuals trying to pretend that their services are priceless and irreplaceable.
More of these 'slam-Trump' debates? Yes. Over the next week, I'd expect at least three additional public-run TV shows like this. In some way, it's like a bunch of children who were told that a circus was coming to town, and they wake up the next day to find that it's just two clowns and a monkey. They all sit by the street corner and weep over the loss of their anticipated "circus". In the end, they never consider that basically the whole circus story got blown way out of proportion and was never truthful....ever.
It was an odd line-up of people that Maishberger gathered for this talking group. Afar-left retired political figure. An intellectual retired journalist from ARD. Alice Schwarzer, who is a feminist gal and very anti-immigrant....who is fairly known around Germany. Some PR German gal who was all pro-Trump. A BILD journalist. And Eric T. Hansen, the lone American on the group.
Hansen is an unusual character. He's an American Mormon, who met a German gal.....married her....went onto a German university....settled into Berlin, and has written a couple of well-received books. It should be noted that he tends to see humor in most events and can be sarcastic. His book....Planet Germany.....written a decade ago....was a best seller in Germany and does some sharp but humor-filled criticisms of German intellectualism.
At some point, the retired journalist hyped up "Rational Politik". It's an invented word that basically covers the idea that you need professional political people running governments and conducting foreign relations because they are trained and have the right way of looking at problems. Hint? Well....insiders can only run the insider system. You wouldn't want the general public rationalizing the issue and coming to a totally different objective.
By the end of this show, you got a fairly big dose of 'problems with Trump'. I think Hansen did try to open their minds just a bit....but with a German, you'd need a ton of persuasion.
Over the past year or two...I've come to the idea that you need public and open forums with a dialog that goes in various directions and allows people to grasp the depth or lack-of-depth to a problem. When you have a bunch of people trying to make this a one-solution problem or limiting debate to only one side....it doesn't work. People are generally smart enough to figure things out on their own.....they don't need intellectuals trying to pretend that their services are priceless and irreplaceable.
More of these 'slam-Trump' debates? Yes. Over the next week, I'd expect at least three additional public-run TV shows like this. In some way, it's like a bunch of children who were told that a circus was coming to town, and they wake up the next day to find that it's just two clowns and a monkey. They all sit by the street corner and weep over the loss of their anticipated "circus". In the end, they never consider that basically the whole circus story got blown way out of proportion and was never truthful....ever.
Monday, November 7, 2016
An Overdose of Pension Reform Talk?
Last night, German public-run ARD gave a fairly big dose of pension-reform talk, with two shows over a two-hour period.
The first show was "Money Check" which picked up the topic of German pensions and gave a pretty in-depth discussion, which could easily be grasped by just about anyone.
For Germans in the 40 to 50 year old range, the bottom line on pensions is that it's not a significant deal unless you really made an upscale income (salary scale that is 40-percent above the average German). The hint throughout pieces of the 45-minute documentary-like show is that you need to work extra months (at least one year.....maybe even three years).
Course, with extra years of work comes the question if you are healthy enough, or if your job is loaded with stress.
They sat and talked to one guy who was around 55 years old and noted that each year for him was worth 50-Euro more a month. He hadn't really thought much about this and had a plan to work only to the mandatory point of entry into retirement, and no more. After the realization of the 50-Euro more? He was leaning toward more months.
The second show came at 9:00.....Hart Aber Fair, and a live chat panel. The realization by the panel went in different directions. The system is broke. The system is unfair. The system cannot be fixed without massive tax revenue. The system needs a rebuild. On and on.
Two whole hours of pension reform talk. Why? Well...here's the thing. Both the SPD and CDU political parties need some topic other than immigration and refugees (which they'd like to entirely dump because of their failures). Pension reform? It's on the minds of just about every single employed German over the age of forty. It's a safe topic because....well.....it's unfixable but OK to chat about.
The basic failure of German pensions? With a spiraling birth-rate, you need to keep the current population at 82-million (more or less).....something that is impossible to achieve. With a strong health program, Germans are living longer, which hurts the general plan that is in place now and makes the pension program weaker as people live longer. Add onto this the driven feeling by probably a quarter of the German population that would like to retire by age 60 (you can ask a hundred Germans around age fifty and a large segment would like early retirement).
I will admit....it was an awful long two hours, with no commercials, and loaded with tons of information. How many Germans watched it? Unknown. From the under-thirty crowd? I'd take a bet that fewer than 2-percent of the under-thirty Germans watched the show. As for the voting public? They might be enticed to make this a top three issue.....but it's still resting along side immigration and integration issues.
The first show was "Money Check" which picked up the topic of German pensions and gave a pretty in-depth discussion, which could easily be grasped by just about anyone.
For Germans in the 40 to 50 year old range, the bottom line on pensions is that it's not a significant deal unless you really made an upscale income (salary scale that is 40-percent above the average German). The hint throughout pieces of the 45-minute documentary-like show is that you need to work extra months (at least one year.....maybe even three years).
Course, with extra years of work comes the question if you are healthy enough, or if your job is loaded with stress.
They sat and talked to one guy who was around 55 years old and noted that each year for him was worth 50-Euro more a month. He hadn't really thought much about this and had a plan to work only to the mandatory point of entry into retirement, and no more. After the realization of the 50-Euro more? He was leaning toward more months.
The second show came at 9:00.....Hart Aber Fair, and a live chat panel. The realization by the panel went in different directions. The system is broke. The system is unfair. The system cannot be fixed without massive tax revenue. The system needs a rebuild. On and on.
Two whole hours of pension reform talk. Why? Well...here's the thing. Both the SPD and CDU political parties need some topic other than immigration and refugees (which they'd like to entirely dump because of their failures). Pension reform? It's on the minds of just about every single employed German over the age of forty. It's a safe topic because....well.....it's unfixable but OK to chat about.
The basic failure of German pensions? With a spiraling birth-rate, you need to keep the current population at 82-million (more or less).....something that is impossible to achieve. With a strong health program, Germans are living longer, which hurts the general plan that is in place now and makes the pension program weaker as people live longer. Add onto this the driven feeling by probably a quarter of the German population that would like to retire by age 60 (you can ask a hundred Germans around age fifty and a large segment would like early retirement).
I will admit....it was an awful long two hours, with no commercials, and loaded with tons of information. How many Germans watched it? Unknown. From the under-thirty crowd? I'd take a bet that fewer than 2-percent of the under-thirty Germans watched the show. As for the voting public? They might be enticed to make this a top three issue.....but it's still resting along side immigration and integration issues.
Sunday, November 6, 2016
The SPD Fix to the Immigration, Asylum Problem
This morning in Germany, for those opening the Sunday edition of the Bild....it's quiet a shocker.
The SPD came out and noted that they have a brand new idea for a draft law.....to fix the whole immigration issue.
Prepare yourself.....they want to take a copy of the Canadian program and revamp it to be like it. The way that the Canadians to immigration....you have a test, and there are areas where you get points or lose points. The max score? 100 points.
The categories on this test? Age, education, professional experience, language skills, and integration ability.
So you kinda look at this and judge for yourself. A guy who is 24 years old with no German skills, a marginal high school education from his country, who has only sold apples off the street for the past eight years, and has no demonstration of integration....would probably NOT get more than 10 points.
The Syrian who is 30 years old, with some marginally demonstrated German language skills (700 word vocabulary), who has a 2-year craftsman's school in baking, and spent 12 years at his uncle's bakery, and can at least show some general knowledge on Germany (twelve lines of history)....probably would get near 70 on the test and might get an application to come into Germany.
The South Korean gal who is 26, having taken three German classes, has a four-year university degree, and spent two years at a bank.....showing a wide variety of integration skills....probably will score near 90 on the test and get an application for immigration.
The more education.....the less on age....the more on language....would all boost your test grade.
How many would Germany allow per year under this program? The SPD hints....25,000 per year. If there are more open jobs in the market, then yearly this program would open up more doors and invite more immigrants into the country. Yeah, you could be talking about 40,000 or 90,000. But the standard number would remain 25,000. So the best of the three or four million who apply....the 25,000.....would get the invitation.
Naturally, you can only do this test while outside the country, and you couldn't just show up. This begs questions because obviously.....a hundred thousand people could just walk in and say.....here, I am. The SPD didn't really talk to this and they've obviously wanted to avoid this topic of the discussion.
The drive for this? Well....it's a curious thing. They absolutely know that the CDU/CSU folks are desperate, and that it has to be accomplished by this upcoming spring (2017). Reason? If you wait until October of 2017....there is ZERO chance that this would pass with the new partnership of the SPD/Linke Party/Green Party.
Why would the far left be against the test method? Let's be honest....most Africans, Libyans, Afghanis, Syrians or Iraqis won't be scoring over 65 and thus won't get an opportunity with this deal. In their mind, it simply won't be fair.
Would the left-left-left situation after October of 2017 (assuming the SPD wins the election) go and modify the 25,000 entry level back to 250,000? Well....yeah, that's something that the SPD didn't really address either.
The affect of EU country folks coming in and affecting the 25,000 number? That's another part of this story. The SPD assumes that a number of people (particularly Greeks) are going to immigrate into Germany because of the market for jobs.
There's also this hint that another category might exist where a guy is invited into the country by a company (to work for them) and he simply gets a three-year visa. After three years, if he's still around and working for the company.....the visa would be tossed and he'd be a permanent resident, period.
The folks who pass this test and get a visa, then they want to bring relatives into Germany? The SPD says there will be a rule in place to limit those family members and that no social benefits will be extended to the members for several years (maybe two.....maybe more).
How attractive is the suggestion? On paper, it has possibilities. It is weak against those who've already come. The question of fraud with the five questions on the test? I could see some guy who is 40....trying to come up with a fake birth certificate to say he's only 28, and then doing more fraud with fake education certificates. Imagine if you flooded BaMF with two million applications a year, and fifty percent have fraudulent data on the five tests. I seriously doubt that they could handle this or be capable of identifying the fake documentation.
Might the bulk of these 25,000 applicants selected via the test program come from China? Well....it's best not to suggest this to the German journalists, but I would make a humble bet that 70-percent would be young Chinese university students, who've taken 400 hours of German language, and have at least a four-year degree in some area. Would it be a bad thing to bring in 20,000 Chinese into Germany a year? I'd say absolutely not. The same deal could occur with South Korean college students. Blocking out the Middle East crowd? Yeah. You can tell there's been some thought to this process suggested by the SPD. They are recruiting for real workers or people with craft.....not burger-flippers.
You can imagine the stats after two years of 50,000 people having entered. My humble guess? From Africa, less than 500. From Syria and Iraq, less than 500. From Turkey, maybe in the range of 1,000. From the US or Canada, maybe 1,000. From China, Japan and South Korea, 45,000.
Will this affect any of the current crowd in Germany? No. The SPD didn't say much but I'm betting on a waiver process for them. It'll only affect the new folks after such-and-such date.
Will the CDU agree to this and pass by March of 2017? I think so. Both parties are desperate to remove the AfD potential threat in the spring state elections (three) and the national election in October of 2017. With this type of public relations "FIX", the AfD might slide back down to a 6-percent political party.
And if Erdogan opens up the asylum route and 500,000 Syrians leave for Germany in the spring of 2017? They'd just accept them and pretend that they weren't part of the 25,000 applicant group....just my humble guess.
It is an entertaining idea and would be a big step back toward some normal immigration and asylum agenda. Most Germans, I think, would applaud the idea, and admit....they'd have no problem with a large group of university-educated South Koreans or Chinese immigrants coming into Germany.
The SPD came out and noted that they have a brand new idea for a draft law.....to fix the whole immigration issue.
Prepare yourself.....they want to take a copy of the Canadian program and revamp it to be like it. The way that the Canadians to immigration....you have a test, and there are areas where you get points or lose points. The max score? 100 points.
The categories on this test? Age, education, professional experience, language skills, and integration ability.
So you kinda look at this and judge for yourself. A guy who is 24 years old with no German skills, a marginal high school education from his country, who has only sold apples off the street for the past eight years, and has no demonstration of integration....would probably NOT get more than 10 points.
The Syrian who is 30 years old, with some marginally demonstrated German language skills (700 word vocabulary), who has a 2-year craftsman's school in baking, and spent 12 years at his uncle's bakery, and can at least show some general knowledge on Germany (twelve lines of history)....probably would get near 70 on the test and might get an application to come into Germany.
The South Korean gal who is 26, having taken three German classes, has a four-year university degree, and spent two years at a bank.....showing a wide variety of integration skills....probably will score near 90 on the test and get an application for immigration.
The more education.....the less on age....the more on language....would all boost your test grade.
How many would Germany allow per year under this program? The SPD hints....25,000 per year. If there are more open jobs in the market, then yearly this program would open up more doors and invite more immigrants into the country. Yeah, you could be talking about 40,000 or 90,000. But the standard number would remain 25,000. So the best of the three or four million who apply....the 25,000.....would get the invitation.
Naturally, you can only do this test while outside the country, and you couldn't just show up. This begs questions because obviously.....a hundred thousand people could just walk in and say.....here, I am. The SPD didn't really talk to this and they've obviously wanted to avoid this topic of the discussion.
The drive for this? Well....it's a curious thing. They absolutely know that the CDU/CSU folks are desperate, and that it has to be accomplished by this upcoming spring (2017). Reason? If you wait until October of 2017....there is ZERO chance that this would pass with the new partnership of the SPD/Linke Party/Green Party.
Why would the far left be against the test method? Let's be honest....most Africans, Libyans, Afghanis, Syrians or Iraqis won't be scoring over 65 and thus won't get an opportunity with this deal. In their mind, it simply won't be fair.
Would the left-left-left situation after October of 2017 (assuming the SPD wins the election) go and modify the 25,000 entry level back to 250,000? Well....yeah, that's something that the SPD didn't really address either.
The affect of EU country folks coming in and affecting the 25,000 number? That's another part of this story. The SPD assumes that a number of people (particularly Greeks) are going to immigrate into Germany because of the market for jobs.
There's also this hint that another category might exist where a guy is invited into the country by a company (to work for them) and he simply gets a three-year visa. After three years, if he's still around and working for the company.....the visa would be tossed and he'd be a permanent resident, period.
The folks who pass this test and get a visa, then they want to bring relatives into Germany? The SPD says there will be a rule in place to limit those family members and that no social benefits will be extended to the members for several years (maybe two.....maybe more).
How attractive is the suggestion? On paper, it has possibilities. It is weak against those who've already come. The question of fraud with the five questions on the test? I could see some guy who is 40....trying to come up with a fake birth certificate to say he's only 28, and then doing more fraud with fake education certificates. Imagine if you flooded BaMF with two million applications a year, and fifty percent have fraudulent data on the five tests. I seriously doubt that they could handle this or be capable of identifying the fake documentation.
Might the bulk of these 25,000 applicants selected via the test program come from China? Well....it's best not to suggest this to the German journalists, but I would make a humble bet that 70-percent would be young Chinese university students, who've taken 400 hours of German language, and have at least a four-year degree in some area. Would it be a bad thing to bring in 20,000 Chinese into Germany a year? I'd say absolutely not. The same deal could occur with South Korean college students. Blocking out the Middle East crowd? Yeah. You can tell there's been some thought to this process suggested by the SPD. They are recruiting for real workers or people with craft.....not burger-flippers.
You can imagine the stats after two years of 50,000 people having entered. My humble guess? From Africa, less than 500. From Syria and Iraq, less than 500. From Turkey, maybe in the range of 1,000. From the US or Canada, maybe 1,000. From China, Japan and South Korea, 45,000.
Will this affect any of the current crowd in Germany? No. The SPD didn't say much but I'm betting on a waiver process for them. It'll only affect the new folks after such-and-such date.
Will the CDU agree to this and pass by March of 2017? I think so. Both parties are desperate to remove the AfD potential threat in the spring state elections (three) and the national election in October of 2017. With this type of public relations "FIX", the AfD might slide back down to a 6-percent political party.
And if Erdogan opens up the asylum route and 500,000 Syrians leave for Germany in the spring of 2017? They'd just accept them and pretend that they weren't part of the 25,000 applicant group....just my humble guess.
It is an entertaining idea and would be a big step back toward some normal immigration and asylum agenda. Most Germans, I think, would applaud the idea, and admit....they'd have no problem with a large group of university-educated South Koreans or Chinese immigrants coming into Germany.
Saturday, November 5, 2016
The Munich Wall
So, this is another German refugee story, with a twist.
Down in Munich.....in a southeast neighborhood called Neuperlach....it's a upscale area that had a large city-owned chunk of land with nothing there.....no park.....no forest....nothing.
Munich and it's city authority had to put up a permanent refugee 'city'.....not just a shelter but a place that would semi-permanent (probably 20 to 30 years). So this chunk of land was selected.
Now, you can image.....folks have been there for decades and didn't ever suspect that the city would do something like this. So as the news got out....hostile feeling arose. The neighbors wouldn't accept this.
So a compromise was worked out. There's a three-meter high stone fence (not the kind of thing that you can climb or do much with) that is being erected.
Well....yeah, some people have observed that it's about as high as the old Berlin Wall.
Negativity? Immigration-friendly folks think it's a pretty negative slam against who is moving in. The neighborhood? They established a line and weren't going to back down.
My humble guess is that after these folks move in and spend six month there....the idea of a friendly neighborhood will cease to exist, and most will leave. Maybe folks will come and go, but I seriously doubt that long-term residents will ever stay in this new neighborhood.
Comparison against the Berlin Wall?
If you went to any German middle-class neighborhood and just said there's this open plot within 5 minutes walking and we (the city authority) intend to put up a quick-low-income housing project.....just about every German would raise a stink and be uncooperative....voting down city council people in the next election. The problem though.....is that in most German communities, you just don't have open plots of land unless it's way out of town or in some former industrialized area.
The wall deal? My humble guess is in four years....the project will be deemed a failure and the city will pay half-a-million Euro to have everything removed and set back to it's original condition. At that point, the neighborhood will demand it be made a city-park....to ensure nothing stupid happens ever again there.
Down in Munich.....in a southeast neighborhood called Neuperlach....it's a upscale area that had a large city-owned chunk of land with nothing there.....no park.....no forest....nothing.
Munich and it's city authority had to put up a permanent refugee 'city'.....not just a shelter but a place that would semi-permanent (probably 20 to 30 years). So this chunk of land was selected.
Now, you can image.....folks have been there for decades and didn't ever suspect that the city would do something like this. So as the news got out....hostile feeling arose. The neighbors wouldn't accept this.
So a compromise was worked out. There's a three-meter high stone fence (not the kind of thing that you can climb or do much with) that is being erected.
Well....yeah, some people have observed that it's about as high as the old Berlin Wall.
Negativity? Immigration-friendly folks think it's a pretty negative slam against who is moving in. The neighborhood? They established a line and weren't going to back down.
My humble guess is that after these folks move in and spend six month there....the idea of a friendly neighborhood will cease to exist, and most will leave. Maybe folks will come and go, but I seriously doubt that long-term residents will ever stay in this new neighborhood.
Comparison against the Berlin Wall?
If you went to any German middle-class neighborhood and just said there's this open plot within 5 minutes walking and we (the city authority) intend to put up a quick-low-income housing project.....just about every German would raise a stink and be uncooperative....voting down city council people in the next election. The problem though.....is that in most German communities, you just don't have open plots of land unless it's way out of town or in some former industrialized area.
The wall deal? My humble guess is in four years....the project will be deemed a failure and the city will pay half-a-million Euro to have everything removed and set back to it's original condition. At that point, the neighborhood will demand it be made a city-park....to ensure nothing stupid happens ever again there.
Healthcare in France
I sat this week and watched a piece on France-24 (an English language French channel). They ran a 10-minute piece on the French healthcare system. I found it kinda interesting.
First, something you ought to be surprised by.....most French people (probably over 90-percent) are very happy with the French healthcare system. It's reasonable. It pays doctors on time. Drugs are reasonable. And everyone in the country has a card, and can be seen with that one single card.
So how does it work?
The cost deal is 8-percent of your income, and your employer is paying 13-percent...so you can figure 21-percent of whatever you make....is your contribution into the bucket. For those on some allowance or pension.....roughly 4.0-percent. For that, the gov't covers 70-percent of the cost when you walk into a clinic. You pay 30-percent. Unhappy about the remaining 30-percent from your pocket? There are various 30-percent fill-in insurance packages that you can buy from a 3rd party company. These fill-in deals? Most run to around 50-to-60 Euro per month. I should note....some dental work and glasses would come from this commercial insurance package....but NOT from the normal healthcare package (something that you note).
The general cost when you step into the doctor's office or clinic? Roughly 23-Euro ($28). So low? Yeah, and that really tells half of the whole story in strict control of profits and salaries for doctors or hospitals. Adding to this is the fact that doctors have the ability to limit tests.....so no one is making up profits from secondary 'products'.
Because of this control....a simple act like teeth cleaning....is only 30-odd Euro (est at $37).
Everyone in the system? Yes.....you have no choice. Even foreigners who arrive (like Americans who want to retire in France).....they will have to get the card.
Computerized? That is a major part of the deal. You walk into the typical French clinic and there's a scanner. You slap your card (which has your picture) onto the machine....it asks you for a couple of details on your ailment or pain, and you get a number. It's all tracked. If you were showing up at multiple clinics for pain-medication? The system will ID you.
Preventative exams? All part of the deal. They want you to come in early and be seen, and if you have issues.....to be worked prior to them being major problems.
The negative of the system, with so many happy people? Year by year....it costs more. And the French government is starting to pass the hat around to regular tax revenue.....to push funds in to prevent escalation of the 21-percent deal on you and your employer. Will this get worse? Yes, no one says otherwise. But it's all hidden and rarely talked about among political figures.
Would it work in the US? The problem would be control of rates and salaries/profits among hospitals. The other issue is that so many US locations are rural in nature and it'd be hard to ensure 4-star treatment/options across the whole board to all Americans at the cost that France has.
First, something you ought to be surprised by.....most French people (probably over 90-percent) are very happy with the French healthcare system. It's reasonable. It pays doctors on time. Drugs are reasonable. And everyone in the country has a card, and can be seen with that one single card.
So how does it work?
The cost deal is 8-percent of your income, and your employer is paying 13-percent...so you can figure 21-percent of whatever you make....is your contribution into the bucket. For those on some allowance or pension.....roughly 4.0-percent. For that, the gov't covers 70-percent of the cost when you walk into a clinic. You pay 30-percent. Unhappy about the remaining 30-percent from your pocket? There are various 30-percent fill-in insurance packages that you can buy from a 3rd party company. These fill-in deals? Most run to around 50-to-60 Euro per month. I should note....some dental work and glasses would come from this commercial insurance package....but NOT from the normal healthcare package (something that you note).
The general cost when you step into the doctor's office or clinic? Roughly 23-Euro ($28). So low? Yeah, and that really tells half of the whole story in strict control of profits and salaries for doctors or hospitals. Adding to this is the fact that doctors have the ability to limit tests.....so no one is making up profits from secondary 'products'.
Because of this control....a simple act like teeth cleaning....is only 30-odd Euro (est at $37).
Everyone in the system? Yes.....you have no choice. Even foreigners who arrive (like Americans who want to retire in France).....they will have to get the card.
Computerized? That is a major part of the deal. You walk into the typical French clinic and there's a scanner. You slap your card (which has your picture) onto the machine....it asks you for a couple of details on your ailment or pain, and you get a number. It's all tracked. If you were showing up at multiple clinics for pain-medication? The system will ID you.
Preventative exams? All part of the deal. They want you to come in early and be seen, and if you have issues.....to be worked prior to them being major problems.
The negative of the system, with so many happy people? Year by year....it costs more. And the French government is starting to pass the hat around to regular tax revenue.....to push funds in to prevent escalation of the 21-percent deal on you and your employer. Will this get worse? Yes, no one says otherwise. But it's all hidden and rarely talked about among political figures.
Would it work in the US? The problem would be control of rates and salaries/profits among hospitals. The other issue is that so many US locations are rural in nature and it'd be hard to ensure 4-star treatment/options across the whole board to all Americans at the cost that France has.
Friday, November 4, 2016
This and Those Story
I sat in a German class today, and the topic (sadly) of the German word for 'this' or 'those' (dieser, diesen, diese, dieses, diesem) came up.
The German instructor spent roughly an hour trying to convey this across to the room of twelve-odd students (I was the only American in the group). Things just didn't go well. It's safe to say that maybe three of us got fifty-percent of the 'jest' to this German side of this or those.
Frankly between the masculine and feminine side of this, then figuring if we were messing with a plural situation or just a singular situation....it was a bit too much.
The Syrians and Iraqis? They posed the question.....why make this hard?
They weren't kidding.
Where this came from? My best guess is that some Roman figures figure into this from about 1,600 years ago. Maybe I'm wrong but the whole thing about needing five ways of using 'this' or 'those' makes for an enormous pain. You can imagine four German guys standing around in some field, and they got into a discussion.
Maybe the talk started out about the weather, or lost cows, or maybe some complaint about wife trouble.....then some guy uttered another phrase for 'this'.....maybe instead of the standard diesem.....he uttered dieses. The three guys looked at him for a minute....not wanting to saying anything because they didn't want to seem less educated, and he realized that he got away with some fake new word.
The next week, he added another and eventually got the associates into a field discussion over the five ways of using 'this' or 'those'.
You can imagine them sitting there by a tree.....sipping a jug of wine or a beer or two, and getting into an intellectual farmer-type discussion. They were throwing diese and disem left and right....laughing and carrying on, and then some guy's German wife came up and kicked butt that they weren't working and wanted to get in on the whole thing.
Naturally, the guys made a few jokes....explained their whole diesem conversation, and she blabbed this all over the village, and weeks later.....some Roman guys picked it up.....and then within a year.....across the entire region.....they all had five versions of the word.
The take by the Syrians and Iraqis? I think they'd like to fix this problem, and just eliminate four versions of the word. Maybe in forty years, with all these immigrants and language issues.....maybe the Germans will reach a point where they dump four of the five "this"/"those" words. Maybe there is some good.....to come out of this whole refugee/asylum business.
The German instructor spent roughly an hour trying to convey this across to the room of twelve-odd students (I was the only American in the group). Things just didn't go well. It's safe to say that maybe three of us got fifty-percent of the 'jest' to this German side of this or those.
Frankly between the masculine and feminine side of this, then figuring if we were messing with a plural situation or just a singular situation....it was a bit too much.
The Syrians and Iraqis? They posed the question.....why make this hard?
They weren't kidding.
Where this came from? My best guess is that some Roman figures figure into this from about 1,600 years ago. Maybe I'm wrong but the whole thing about needing five ways of using 'this' or 'those' makes for an enormous pain. You can imagine four German guys standing around in some field, and they got into a discussion.
Maybe the talk started out about the weather, or lost cows, or maybe some complaint about wife trouble.....then some guy uttered another phrase for 'this'.....maybe instead of the standard diesem.....he uttered dieses. The three guys looked at him for a minute....not wanting to saying anything because they didn't want to seem less educated, and he realized that he got away with some fake new word.
The next week, he added another and eventually got the associates into a field discussion over the five ways of using 'this' or 'those'.
You can imagine them sitting there by a tree.....sipping a jug of wine or a beer or two, and getting into an intellectual farmer-type discussion. They were throwing diese and disem left and right....laughing and carrying on, and then some guy's German wife came up and kicked butt that they weren't working and wanted to get in on the whole thing.
Naturally, the guys made a few jokes....explained their whole diesem conversation, and she blabbed this all over the village, and weeks later.....some Roman guys picked it up.....and then within a year.....across the entire region.....they all had five versions of the word.
The take by the Syrians and Iraqis? I think they'd like to fix this problem, and just eliminate four versions of the word. Maybe in forty years, with all these immigrants and language issues.....maybe the Germans will reach a point where they dump four of the five "this"/"those" words. Maybe there is some good.....to come out of this whole refugee/asylum business.
My Humble Take on BREXIT Mess Now
Based on the court ruling from yesterday.....it's been said that Parliament in the UK must meet and pass the exit request....otherwise, it's not legit.
What happens now?
The Prime Minister will package this and send it to the Supreme Court of the UK....to be heard on 1 December (if the story is right from last night). Odds of a quick answer? Zero. Five or six different folks that I watched on the various news networks suggested different schedules. One said as quickly as ten days.....most suggested a month....one said nothing until the end of January.
So, here's the issue.
The pro-BREXIT folks and anti-BREXIT will meet up on X-Day, and hear the verdict. Is it the end? No. They could actually take this one more step.....to the EU Supreme Court. Now, you'd sit there and pause over this.....wouldn't that be counter-productive? Yeah. You can guess their answer.
So, let's say they get to the point of saying 'fine'.....let's conduct a Parliamentary vote. Most of the members (from four months ago) were anti-BREXIT (doesn't matter which party you bring this up with). So a vote in the Parliament will end up saying 'no'.....no exit.
What happens then? PM May, current head of Parliament would very likely (likely a 90-percent chance) have to step down. In fact, the public.....a bare majority of 52-plus percent would demand a new election.
I'd make a guess that it'd occur by early April.
What parties run? Well, you start to get deep into a mess because of the Labor and Tory blend here on anti-BREXIT.....I think a new party or two would likely form up. You could see one of the weakest British governments in the past thousand years win the election.
Then what happens with BREXIT? I think it's finished.....it won't occur. Anger, frustration, hostility? Oh yes. You are looking at hundreds of thousands of British who simply won't stand for this type of government screw-up.
The EU? Everything they said.....all the fine 'evil' stuff and harsh words? Well.....it has to be forgotten and life continues on. Yeah. Sure.
Affect on the EU and politics in Europe? I guess from January on.....for the bulk of 2017....it's going to be a fairly dismal subject to bring up.
Whoever wins this quick election deal in the spring....I suspect that they will be PM for less than twelve months and be sent out for another issue or problem.
What happens now?
The Prime Minister will package this and send it to the Supreme Court of the UK....to be heard on 1 December (if the story is right from last night). Odds of a quick answer? Zero. Five or six different folks that I watched on the various news networks suggested different schedules. One said as quickly as ten days.....most suggested a month....one said nothing until the end of January.
So, here's the issue.
The pro-BREXIT folks and anti-BREXIT will meet up on X-Day, and hear the verdict. Is it the end? No. They could actually take this one more step.....to the EU Supreme Court. Now, you'd sit there and pause over this.....wouldn't that be counter-productive? Yeah. You can guess their answer.
So, let's say they get to the point of saying 'fine'.....let's conduct a Parliamentary vote. Most of the members (from four months ago) were anti-BREXIT (doesn't matter which party you bring this up with). So a vote in the Parliament will end up saying 'no'.....no exit.
What happens then? PM May, current head of Parliament would very likely (likely a 90-percent chance) have to step down. In fact, the public.....a bare majority of 52-plus percent would demand a new election.
I'd make a guess that it'd occur by early April.
What parties run? Well, you start to get deep into a mess because of the Labor and Tory blend here on anti-BREXIT.....I think a new party or two would likely form up. You could see one of the weakest British governments in the past thousand years win the election.
Then what happens with BREXIT? I think it's finished.....it won't occur. Anger, frustration, hostility? Oh yes. You are looking at hundreds of thousands of British who simply won't stand for this type of government screw-up.
The EU? Everything they said.....all the fine 'evil' stuff and harsh words? Well.....it has to be forgotten and life continues on. Yeah. Sure.
Affect on the EU and politics in Europe? I guess from January on.....for the bulk of 2017....it's going to be a fairly dismal subject to bring up.
Whoever wins this quick election deal in the spring....I suspect that they will be PM for less than twelve months and be sent out for another issue or problem.
Thursday, November 3, 2016
The "Campers"
I spent a fair amount of time yesterday watching France 24 (a good network for general European news) and RT (Russia Today network, which I will watch but have to take everything and assess truthful nature of what they say). The chief topic? The Calais, France refugee camp closed down (dismantled would be a good term), and then as they all scattered.....a large crowd (maybe 5,000) are putting up tents throughout the city of Paris. Naturally, the Paris residents are a bit peeved.
Folks on the street were interviewed, and the general description would be frustration....can't the government just push these immigrants or refugees into some shelter deal?
The mayor of Paris? Strangely absent from both RT and France 24 reporting. You'd think that he'd be out front and talking, but they don't mention much with the guy.
How screwed up was the Calais-tear-down plan? Based on what is reported by various networks (including the BBC).....I'd give the French plan a "4" out of a ten. Once they made the decision that it had to be torn down.....the selling of the idea of distributing people around to villages and cities really didn't work. I would make an assumption that two-thirds of the adult population disagree about the plan and it's objectives.
Making refugees into topic number one for the French presidential election? Well.....yes.
We are roughly five months away from the national presidential election, and seven months from the legislative election. One might get the impression that this is a loaded cannon and will bring heavy negative numbers to the socialist parties of France.
The topic likely to come up within a year? Turning off the pipeline of all immigrants and refugees coming into Europe will likely come up. As much as the EU will try to control the topic and push it back.....I think national themes will erupt out of France, a number of eastern European countries, the Netherlands, and to some degree in Austria and Germany.
The internet and the snowball effect helped to bring the refugee crisis to the level that exists today. People sat there in marginal third-world countries and saw these great scenes of urban success, jobs, and better lifestyles, and got the idea that by simply sailing there and arriving.....they too could gain the same advantages in life. Strangely enough.....the 5,000 'campers' sitting in tents around Paris had some bigger dream of their life. I don't see any of this ending well, and a bunch of disgruntled migrants sitting around various urban areas of Europe....simmering in frustration over the next decade because they just didn't find the dream they were seeking.
Folks on the street were interviewed, and the general description would be frustration....can't the government just push these immigrants or refugees into some shelter deal?
The mayor of Paris? Strangely absent from both RT and France 24 reporting. You'd think that he'd be out front and talking, but they don't mention much with the guy.
How screwed up was the Calais-tear-down plan? Based on what is reported by various networks (including the BBC).....I'd give the French plan a "4" out of a ten. Once they made the decision that it had to be torn down.....the selling of the idea of distributing people around to villages and cities really didn't work. I would make an assumption that two-thirds of the adult population disagree about the plan and it's objectives.
Making refugees into topic number one for the French presidential election? Well.....yes.
We are roughly five months away from the national presidential election, and seven months from the legislative election. One might get the impression that this is a loaded cannon and will bring heavy negative numbers to the socialist parties of France.
The topic likely to come up within a year? Turning off the pipeline of all immigrants and refugees coming into Europe will likely come up. As much as the EU will try to control the topic and push it back.....I think national themes will erupt out of France, a number of eastern European countries, the Netherlands, and to some degree in Austria and Germany.
The internet and the snowball effect helped to bring the refugee crisis to the level that exists today. People sat there in marginal third-world countries and saw these great scenes of urban success, jobs, and better lifestyles, and got the idea that by simply sailing there and arriving.....they too could gain the same advantages in life. Strangely enough.....the 5,000 'campers' sitting in tents around Paris had some bigger dream of their life. I don't see any of this ending well, and a bunch of disgruntled migrants sitting around various urban areas of Europe....simmering in frustration over the next decade because they just didn't find the dream they were seeking.
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