Sunday, November 6, 2016

The SPD Fix to the Immigration, Asylum Problem

This morning in Germany, for those opening the Sunday edition of the's quiet a shocker.

The SPD came out and noted that they have a brand new idea for a draft fix the whole immigration issue.

Prepare yourself.....they want to take a copy of the Canadian program and revamp it to be like it.  The way that the Canadians to have a test, and there are areas where you get points or lose points.  The max score?  100 points.

The categories on this test?  Age, education, professional experience, language skills, and integration ability.

So you kinda look at this and judge for yourself. A guy who is 24 years old with no German skills, a marginal high school education from his country, who has only sold apples off the street for the past eight years, and has no demonstration of integration....would probably NOT get more than 10 points.

The Syrian who is 30 years old, with some marginally demonstrated German language skills (700 word vocabulary), who has a 2-year craftsman's school in baking, and spent 12 years at his uncle's bakery, and can at least show some general knowledge on Germany (twelve lines of history)....probably would get near 70 on the test and might get an application to come into Germany.

The South Korean gal who is 26, having taken three German classes, has a four-year university degree, and spent two years at a bank.....showing a wide variety of integration skills....probably will score near 90 on the test and get an application for immigration.

The more education.....the less on age....the more on language....would all boost your test grade.

How many would Germany allow per year under this program?  The SPD hints....25,000 per year.  If there are more open jobs in the market, then yearly this program would open up more doors and invite more immigrants into the country.  Yeah, you could be talking about 40,000 or 90,000.  But the standard number would remain 25,000.  So the best of the three or four million who apply....the 25,000.....would get the invitation.

Naturally, you can only do this test while outside the country, and you couldn't just show up.  This begs questions because obviously.....a hundred thousand people could just walk in and, I am.  The SPD didn't really talk to this and they've obviously wanted to avoid this topic of the discussion.

The drive for this?'s a curious thing.  They absolutely know that the CDU/CSU folks are desperate, and that it has to be accomplished by this upcoming spring (2017).  Reason?  If you wait until October of 2017....there is ZERO chance that this would pass with the new partnership of the SPD/Linke Party/Green Party.

Why would the far left be against the test method?  Let's be honest....most Africans, Libyans, Afghanis, Syrians or Iraqis won't be scoring over 65 and thus won't get an opportunity with this deal.  In their mind, it simply won't be fair.

Would the left-left-left situation after October of 2017 (assuming the SPD wins the election) go and modify the 25,000 entry level back to 250,000?  Well....yeah, that's something that the SPD didn't really address either.

The affect of EU country folks coming in and affecting the 25,000 number?  That's another part of this story.  The SPD assumes that a number of people (particularly Greeks) are going to immigrate into Germany because of the market for jobs.

There's also this hint that another category might exist where a guy is invited into the country by a company (to work for them) and he simply gets a three-year visa.  After three years, if he's still around and working for the company.....the visa would be tossed and he'd be a permanent resident, period.

The folks who pass this test and get a visa, then they want to bring relatives into Germany?  The SPD says there will be a rule in place to limit those family members and that no social benefits will be extended to the members for several years (maybe two.....maybe more).

How attractive is the suggestion?  On paper, it has possibilities.  It is weak against those who've already come.  The question of fraud with the five questions on the test?  I could see some guy who is 40....trying to come up with a fake birth certificate to say he's only 28, and then doing more fraud with fake education certificates.  Imagine if you flooded BaMF with two million applications a year, and fifty percent have fraudulent data on the five tests.  I seriously doubt that they could handle this or be capable of identifying the fake documentation.

Might the bulk of these 25,000 applicants selected via the test program come from China?'s best not to suggest this to the German journalists, but I would make a humble bet that 70-percent would be young Chinese university students, who've taken 400 hours of German language, and have at least a four-year degree in some area.  Would it be a bad thing to bring in 20,000 Chinese into Germany a year?  I'd say absolutely not.  The same deal could occur with South Korean college students.  Blocking out the Middle East crowd?  Yeah.  You can tell there's been some thought to this process suggested by the SPD.  They are recruiting for real workers or people with craft.....not burger-flippers.

You can imagine the stats after two years of 50,000 people having entered.  My humble guess? From Africa, less than 500.  From Syria and Iraq, less than 500.  From Turkey, maybe in the range of 1,000.  From the US or Canada, maybe 1,000.  From China, Japan and South Korea, 45,000.

Will this affect any of the current crowd in Germany?  No.  The SPD didn't say much but I'm betting on a waiver process for them.  It'll only affect the new folks after such-and-such date.

Will the CDU agree to this and pass by March of 2017?  I think so.  Both parties are desperate to remove the AfD potential threat in the spring state elections (three) and the national election in October of 2017.  With this type of public relations "FIX", the AfD might slide back down to a 6-percent political party.

And if Erdogan opens up the asylum route and 500,000 Syrians leave for Germany in the spring of 2017?  They'd just accept them and pretend that they weren't part of the 25,000 applicant group....just my humble guess.

It is an entertaining idea and would be a big step back toward some normal immigration and asylum agenda.  Most Germans, I think, would applaud the idea, and admit....they'd have no problem with a large group of university-educated South Koreans or Chinese immigrants coming into Germany.

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