Germany and the Coronavirus: 15 March 2020

1.  Infection numbers: 3,795 (RKI data).  Dead: 8.  NRW (the state) leads with 1,154 folks with the virus.  It should be noted that ALL of the dead are over the age of 65....most are over the age of 70.  One German journalist last week noted that it's hard to find anyone under the age of sixteen who is severely infected or having a rough time of the virus. 

2.  Via a ARD update, there's a warning going up over potential shortfalls in medical staff across Germany.  To be honest, they already had a nursing shortage....which has been going on for an entire decade. 

3.  The German Army is being put into the role as a 'executive-agent' of purchasing for the medical establishment.  Rather odd....considering the massive shortfalls in the German military logistics capability.....that you put the same people in charge of buying masks and requirements for the virus.

4.  There's a report by ARD on the topic of virus 'fake' news.  Rumors are being created hour-by-hour, and it's starting to bother the authorities.  Some suggest that food shortages are occurring (only in terms of 'hamster-buying' if you examine the facts).  Closures of grocery operations on Monday?  That's another fake-news piece.....zero evidence of any store going to short hours (unless there is a manpower problem).  Part of this issue, if you think about it....is social media and how it's gotten rooted down into our lives (compared to twenty years ago). 

5.  This long discussion about border controls?  Various countries have ramped up entry procedures, without really waiting on the EU.  The EU 'machine'?  It's attempting now to pick up speed and create one entire process.  The only folks who seem to not be bothered by this control process?  Truck-drivers.  Any day now, I'm expecting the cops to talk about shortfalls in illegal cigarettes, illicit drugs, etc. 

6.  The city of Berlin during this period?  A great piece done by N-TV and talks over this.  You can still run catered parties in Berlin.....but only if you do a list of guests and their addresses.  Bars and pubs?  Shut-down.  Dance operations, cafes, exhibits, and even brothels....are shut-down.  How long they can operate like this?  One can only take a guess of a month at best. 

7.  By official German terms, you are well (from the virus), if you do a 14-day quarantine and show negative results of the test.  Only then, are you supposed to go back to work. 

8.  If you use official Chinese data (NTV discussion).....only 6-percent of all infected are in the extreme cases which need hospital care.  The bulk (near 80-percent) have what you'd call a regular flu-like situation.  So this leaves the 14-percent group.....the guys with heavy fever, severe cough, and requiring the whole quarantine period to recover.  The problem with this discussion is that if you had a city like Wiesbaden (population of 285,000), then the severe group would amount to roughly 17,000 and the medical establishment could not handle that situation within a 60 day period.  Maybe if they were split out over six months....it'd work.  So the delay-delay-delay strategy is really the only one that will work in the end.

9.  Number of intensive care beds in Germany (total)?  28,000 over the entire country.  Set up for breathing assistance or respirators?  25,000.  If you did the math of 83-million and used the 6-percent number.....there's a shortfall of 4.9-million, so the delay strategy is the only one that really works. 

10.  N-TV did a great interview with Wolfgang Krupp (The German company Trigema).  If Germany needs more masks....Trigema is ready to go.