My Theory on the Corona Numbers

I have two theories on the Coronavirus.

1.  The high death count in South Korea and Italy.

So we think of a country as just one large region, but the reality is......you could split a country like Italy up into 100 regions (circular in nature).

You start with the northern region around Milan, and color in red five of these circles.  Each probably has one major hospital, and probably three medium-sized hospitals.  If you said the word 'quarantine'.....the four (probably just the main hospital)....would admit that they could handle 200 situations (people).

In the first real week....just four to six people are confirmed on the test, and half of them fit the profile for the self-quarantine situation at home.

By week three, you have probably 30 people confirmed on the test, and eight are bad enough to fill the 200 beds.  By this point, you have close to 40 people you are observing and helping.

By week five, you have near 2,000 people confirmed on the test, with the vast majority doing home-quarantine.  However, you now are nearing 200 people in your main hospital plan.

By week seven, you have near 300 people in the unit designed for 200....with people now in the hallways, and half the medical staff sick.  So over one night, three nurses do the work of seven.  During the night, because of the shortages....six people in the building die.

Because of overcrowding, limited hospital care, nurses and doctors out.....your plan 'A' has no relationship to saving the worst of cases.

By week eight, you have easily six different districts under the same problem....a concentrated issue in this one region......with care nowhere near the amount required.  Daily in the six regions.....you total near 100 to 150 dead.

If they had been balanced over the whole country.....things would make sense, but they weren't.  So as the virus entraps the entire nation.....these districts each reach maximum capacity, and each fail because of the expectations.  You might even find forty of these districts in the country where less than 1-percent of the quarantine beds are being used.

2.  The second problem is the 70-percent number given by Chancellor Merkel for the number of Germans to yet be infected with the virus.  This would involve 56-odd million Germans, if the theory is correct (more or less).

So in this capacity, using the simple math formulas.....by June and July.....you would have to have a minimum of 300,000 Germans being confirmed with the virus each week....probably maxing in August with 500,000 to a million per week.

Using the same district scenario as in the first estimation.....each one of these German districts would start to fail by June and July.....as the quarantine beds were all filled to capacity.

The Germans would have the same limitations, the same max capacity, the same shortage of nurses and doctors.

If you go to a city unit like Wiesbaden, they might be able to handle a 1,000 quarantine situations, and under a stressful managed situation....maybe on up to 2,000 beds.  Those would be filled to capacity, and then the rest would be sent home......having their problems there.

The death number you see in Italy would likely occur in Germany.....at just a later point.

Using the general average number of 2-percent deaths per infected unit....figuring that Germany has 56-million infected, then the result would end up with 2.2-million (minimum) dead (mostly from senior citizens, those with asthma and diabetes/secondary ailments).  It is a troubling number.....no doubt....IF the math were right.