How 2nd Place Winner Coalitions Weaken Society

 Lets imagine a country has a election....with the winning party having 32-perent of the vote, and the 2nd place party having 27-percent.  Among the four remaining parties....all in numbers of 5-percent, 10-percent, 12-percent, and 14-percent.  

You reach a point  30 days into the building process....to find that party number one can't form a coalition....so party #2 gets the chance.

To get a coalition, you need 50-plus-percent.  The #2 party now finds a problem....both the 3rd place and 4th place party....want high spot cabinet posts.  You eventually discover that you can't work with the 3rd place party, and now most  partner-up with 3 other parties.

The 5-percent party?  They are blunt....they want three serious problems, and two cabinet posts.  Normally, you'd say 'no'.....but you have to find some way of a partnership.

So in the end....you (the number two party)....have cut back on all your promises, and have less than one-third of the cabinet posts. 

It's a fairly weak government, and people talk about this daily.

The problems that got the top vote party a 'victory'?  Well....no one really wants to solve these issues....so they remain, and four years later.....the voters go the same way again....with fewer votes for the 2nd, 3rd, 4th and 5th place parties.

I'm against multi-party situations or coalitions, but when you deny the first place party a chance to form a government.....you can only get weaken governments in the end.

30 Sep 2024: Eight German News Stories

 1.  Austria election yesterday?  Well.... the right-wing FPÖ Party got around 29.2 percent of the vote....so they were the 'winner'.  Up a significant bit?  Yeah....they added 13-percent over the last election.

The previous winner?  ÖVP, dropped around 11 points....to get 26.5 percent.

Chief topic of this election in the end?  Mostly migration, asylum, crime and public perception of problems.

Coalition?  The suggestion is that FPÖ can't get a partner, and so the 2nd place winner will get the call....finding at least two partners.  If ÖVP takes charge and fails to take on migration/crime issues?  Next election goes the same way.  

Bad sign for the Germans?  I might suggest they will discuss this at length.

2.  There's fresh new talk of banning the AfD (right-wing) Party.  I'll simply say that if you ban them....they will find a fresh new party to take over.....taking control, and in six  months....come  back to life.

3.  Trying to get a wind-generator project up and going?  ARD covered this in a news piece....talking over issues in the state of Baden-Wurttemberg.  They counted up.....almost 440,000 papers turned in....to halt various projects.

4.  Average time to get your asylum request  paperwork approved/disapproved?  Now takes eight months on average.

5.  All the rain of the past week has affected numbers at the Oktoberfest. 

6.  There is a Covid-bill being discussed....where legally....the gov't has a special debt that the court will impose.  Amount?  Six-billion Euro.

Yeah, causing some chaos over the budget.

7.  Over the weekend in Essen, 31 folks injured in arson-attack in two apartment buildings.  Two kids critically injured. 

Where this leads onto?  Cops have arrested a 41-year-old Syrian guy. He apparently went nuts against family members. 

Probably dozens of charges (attempted murder on the list).

Lot of video over the guy in action.  I'd say he had some mental breakdown or was on some drug-binge.  

8.  I was in Wiesbaden yesterday (Sunday)....witnessing a nude-protest of some type (no signs).....probably fifty folks (two-thirds women).  Just odd weather (15C) to be doing some nude-walk (I would have done this in July). 

Will The E-Car Trend In Germany Ever Take Off?

 No.

Maybe four years ago, I could see some brief window of opportunity opening and some part of German society interested in the 'science' and marketing.

I give four reasons for this lack of 'take-off':

1.  Germans already pay a significant amount on electrical grid costs....so telling some family that they have to have two E-cars and the grid cost added on for the two cars might be 3,000 Euro a year....won't work.

2.  Germans use their cars for vacation trips....so planning a 800 km trip with a E-car....means at least one stop in the middle....to charge up the vehicle....hoping that you do find a free charger at the time of day.  

3.  These notable fires with the E-cars....get talked about.  Eventually, I expect German insurance companies to ask...if you house the E-car in a garage, or next to your house.

4. Go ask your condo association or apartment building owners....if they will install chargers, and if their insurance covers E-car fires.  The response will be 'no-chargers' on our part unless the gov't forces us, and an eventual rule of no parking within a building for E-cars.

So I'm breaking the news here....politically, there's a storm brewing over the next ten years, and those parties pressing on with dissolving gas/diesel cars....are set to be dissolved.  

28 Sep 2024: Seven German News Stories

 1.  BSW Party sitting down for coalition talks in Thuringia, Brandenburg and Saxony.  Party 'boss' Wagenknecht has named conditions for coalitions.  Oddly enough....no US missiles in Germany to be a state issue (at least she thinks the states can stake this out and force the German federal gov't to observe the condition.  

Scaring off the CDU/CSU folks?  Yeah.....it sounds that way.

2.  Draft agreement between Turkey and Germany?  Germany has a group of 12,000 Turks on a deportation list....Turkey says it'll take them back, but at a limit of 500 per week....with more on the table.  Now, if you asked me.....will the group stay in Turkey?  I'd laugh and suggest virtually all of them within a year, will have found a path back into Germany.

3.  Odd statement by Green Party youth 'wing'.....they want to hold talks with Linke Party youth wing....to bring the far-left folks into the Greens.

4.  German cities approaching the federal government....saying the public transportation system is out-dated....wanting in the range of 60-billion Euro (over a couple of years period).

They may have a legit request....but presently the government has maxed-out on money to hand out.

5.  WELT Saturday AM 'warning'....as winter approaches....pharmacies across Germany are advising drug shortages will be the norm.  

6.  A draft plan for 'change' has been created by the 16 states, and sent to ARD (the public TV/radio folks).  The states are saying....finally...change has to occur.

Whether ARD will accept this or not....unknown.

Reform 1: Channel SAT1 will dissolve into the ARTE channel.  SAT1 had been around for 40-plus years and I regard it as the ultimate artsy German intellectual network. ARTE had been around since 1992, and was the ultimate artsy European intellectual network. If you asked me on viewership?  For me?  Occasionally SAT1 would run a 1950s/1960s classic movie.  Nightly, I doubt if you could find more than one German out of thirty who watched either channel.

Reform 2: Each state would be limited to 4 radio networks. A system would be created where certain stations would be national (not state-orientated).

Reform 3: Four channels Phoenix, tagesschau24 , ARD-alpha and ZDF-Info would form into one-to-two networks.

Reform 4: ZDF-Neo and ONE?  Merged into a  single network.  Neo was supposed to be the savior of public TV....designed to get young people to watch, and that never took off.  ONE was designed for older viewers and never took off....revised for strictly young viewers....but that never took off either. So the idea would be to merge both failures into one failure.

Will ZDF and ARD take the ideas?  Well....neither have been able find any great magic in getting youth viewers to their TV style, and that segment is the strongest in wanting to dump the TV tax. 

7.  Coalition forming plans on migration....if you entered from a 'safe' country (France, Switzerland, Czech, etc).....you will be denied benefits/social help.  The belief is...whether true or not....this group would 'leave'.  I suspect the 'safe' countries would wake up and go ballistic....causing the EU to remedy the mess.

Retirement Chatter

 Back on 17 May 1889.....talks opened up in the German Reichstag over  a federal pension idea....it passed a week later.  At the time...the contribution rate was initially set to two percent of your salary, and the retirement age was 70. 

Here we are135 years later, there's serious talk that entire system is heading toward failure, unless changes occur.

Age a part of the problem?  Yeah.  In the 1960s.....when you retired....you generally were lucky to live another 10 years.  Today?  The average time after retirement is 20.5 years more.

For every 100 folks putting money into the pot.....57 retired folks are receiving money out of the German pension fund.  They figure by 2050....it'll be near 70 Germans getting a chunk out of the pension

Your current contribution (if you work)?  18.6-percent of your salary from you (your company pays a like-amount).  By 2035, the experts say it'll have to be near 22.3-percent.

Paying out enough?  Well....roughly one out of five Germans make less than 1,200 Euro a month on their pension.  

This talk of a IRA-like system?  It gets dragged up and discussed.....except for the FDP Party....the talk never goes anywhere.

Raising the work age another year or two?  Almost every year....this gets serious chatter, then dissolves away (no one really wants to past 67).

So as screwed up as the American system is....the German system has just as many woes.

26 Sep 2024: Four German News Stories

 1.  The Youth Council of the Green Party (separate from the Executive Council that resigned yesterday).....have given resignations as well.

2.  I sat and watched an interview of a guy who was attending the Oktoberfest in Munich.  His chief grumble?  It's not unaffordable for a working-class guy.  

3. Tesla car company is sending 'bosses' out to homes of sick employees.  So what drove this 'check'?  Well....Tesla now averages THREE times the amount of sick leave used....compared to normal companies.  

4.  The chief suspect in the bombing in Koln (no deaths)....has turned himself in.  It's not clear what the motivation is on this stuff.

Explaining The German Green Party Spiral

 First, just so you understand the basic design of all German political parties.....they all have a 'menu' of promises, which appeals to x-number of voters.  

Under this 'umbrella'.....you have folks that have a priority on anti-war or anti-nuke weapons.   You also have a group of voters who are pro-environment, pro-legalization of cannabis, anti-gas/diesel cars, and anti-capitalism.  

In the Green Party.....there's probably thirty to forty different 'promise-groups', and  one of these voting blocks....is pro-asylum and anti-deportation.  At some point in time (around January 2016 probably)....some pro-Green Party enthusiasts/voters.....reached a new position where they felt some asylum folks needed deportation.   As the months and years went  by....this group of voters eventually reached a point where they departed for the SPD or CDU Parties.

There's been three state elections this year....in the eastern side of Germany, and the Green Party got a 'crap' showing of voters.  

Among some Green Party enthusiasts (the ones who stayed with the party)....they see this resignation of the top-level executive council of the Greens....as a positive thing, and this is where you change policy.

There's going to be a major meeting of the party and this policy discussion will occur.  

What I'll say?  I would imagine around a quarter of the people who support the Green Party....are die-hard pro-asylum and anti-deportation enthusiasts.  So offering up a change in  strategy....is not going be something they can support.  Maybe this can be worded in some 'soft' version....where criminal behavior matters, and you expect society to fit in a harmonious way, or you need to leave.  

All of this strategy changing....occurring a year before the fed-election?  Yeah, there is that element, but lets be honest here.....the coalition is having trouble,  and they might fold-up and collapse here in October....requiring a new election ASAP.

Political Chatter

 This AM (Wed)....the executive council (top advisors) of the German Green Party resigned.  

Crisis stage?

Well....there are three elements to this story.

First, out of the Brandenburg state election from the weekend.....the party performed in a pretty poor way, with dismal numbers.

Second, nationally in polls....the Greens are showing a 9-to-10 percent point....in a spiral for the past three years.

Third and final....the Greens haven't found any 'magic' to handle the economic woes, the migration anger in the public eye, or a path to lead the coalition.

So these individuals basically said.....they aren't the right crew for the Greens and the fall 2025 federal election.  

What will follow?  A national meeting with the Green representatives and a new group elected.  

Harsh situation?  I'd just say that finding some way to handle the migrant woes, public desires for action, and staying faithful to their general 'promises' will be near impossible.....with the votes likely split among the new people being brought in.

This consuming the newscast for tonight?  Oh YEAH.....this will take up a good portion of tonight's news.

Is There A Hard Date Now For the Collapse of the Scholz Government Coalition?

Well....several journalists have talked to FDP Party members, and their 'hint' is that they've agreed....the budget battle going on....has a must-conclude-date, or they will collapse the coalition.

How messed up is the budget?  About a month ago....things were settled.

Then the VW folks stood up and said they are going to collapse unless things change, and 5-billion Euro is found to carry them though 2025.  In the past couple of days....the Labor Ministry had to admit that their 2025 budget might be missing 4.5 billion (some say it's closer to 9-billion)....to cover the welfare fund.  The Finance Ministry says they don't have billions left to throw around and won't add another tax.

Could they carve off a couple billion from Ukraine's war effort fund?  Yeah.  Could they delay a bridge or two on renovation....going into 2026?  Yeah.  Could they cut 2-billion off the German military for a single year?  Yeah.

The problem is.....no one is sure about next week or next month....there might be five or six other emergencies coming up, and  the budget can't handle any more problems.

A collapse leading to a CDU victory?  Yeah....but the discussion becomes....who is the coalition partner in this case?  Greens?  SPD?  BSW?

Then the coalition building process....isn't the question of changing the migration situation at the top of the list?  Most people think that.  

Polls showing the public ready for an election?  For more than a year.....it's been a 50-percent or more situation....Germans wanting a fresh new election. Back in July, I saw a poll where 80-percent of Germans were keen on the idea of a fresh election.

Scholz gone?  I'd say it's a 99-percent chance.

A evolution coming for asylum changes?  That's what a fair sum of people are thinking.

25 Sep 2024: Eleven German News Stories

 1.  What VW said yesterday...based on new dynamics....they are cutting 20-billion in technology development for E-cars ASAP.  By their estimate....4,000 jobs will go away shortly.

Political action now required?  I'd say this is one of the biggest emergency situations of the past 20 years in Germany.

2.  German teacher's union says that school kids need more media education to protect them from the evil right-wing crowd.

3.  Over in Brandenburg....some refugee center was smeared with pig's blood.  Investigation being conducted.

4.  Officially on the 2025 German federal budget, 36 billion euros was earmarked for the citizen's allowance or welfare supplement in 2025. 

It came out on Tuesday....it's probably four billion short (minimum).  Some speculation by the CDU Party says it could reach ten billion Euro short.  A lot depends on the economy, which appears to be sliding in predictions.

Lot of discussion going, and folks wondering how the budget crowd will cover this problem.

So by mid-afternoon Tuesday....the FDP Party discussed the idea....maybe it's time to quit the coalition and stage a new election.

5.  If there were an election presently?  Big losers?  Probably the FDP and Green Party....FDP might not get seats at all, and one might suggest the Greens presently only getting around 8-to-10 percent.

This would be a win for the CDU-CSU (in the 32-percent range),  With the SPD, AfD and BSW carving up the remaining votes.

Asking for timing?  If the coalition broke up next week....they'd likely have an election prior to the end of November.  One thing I suspect....no one wants campaign season stretching into the Christmas season....so they fold up in the next three weeks, or they wait till early January to announce the collapse.  

6.  German Bahn services (the railway)...promises shortly a connection from Frankfurt to Paris (also a Munich to Paris) run....done in 8 hours.  Ultra high speed.

Price structure....cheapest period of the week....39.99 Euro for a one-way ticket (no reserved seat).  

7.  Bavaria has approved the first legal hunt of wolves....in 140 years.  They suggest the population is out of control.

8.  Interesting ban in Frankfurt...no E-bikes/scooters allowed in the subway system.  Reason?  Fear of a battery explosion problem.  Announced Tuesday afternoon.  

I think German insurance companies will act on this shortly....forbidding recharges within garages or homes.

9.  N24 news did a piece Tuesday afternoon....claiming that some members of the SPD Party don't want any more changes to the migration or asylum program.  Figure the number to be around 20-to-25 percent.

It puts the party in a difficult position if a new election is called.

10.  Nordsee, the German fish fast-food restaurant......has been closing various units....decline in business.  I generally give a thumbs-up on Nordsee....probably eating there at least twice a year.  

11. Another explosion in Koln?  Yes.....cafe, Tuesday night.  Fair amount of damage, with a fire.  No wounded.  Some belief by the police that a gang-warfare situation is developing.  Proof?  Not really much.

Is There A True Budget Crisis In Germany Today?

 Well....it comes down to five factors:

1.  The Ukraine-Russia war, with its refugees in Germany, military support toward Ukraine,  and significant cost of energy....is dragging Germany's budget a good bit.

2.  The FDP Party....of the coalition....runs the budget/finance business, and they are ultra 'keen' NOT to go and borrow tons of money from banks.

3.  The Covid era has given the country a poisonous 'gift'....in that the economy is sour and just not taking off.

4.  This move to E-cars and away from gas/diesel.....has a cost factor (the gov't has to say that now).  VW could possibly go under.

5.  Between infrastructure, clinics/hospital cost, funding the German army's modernization, the welfare budget, and all the 'gifts' to society....are now a burden.  Bridges are now a major issue in renovating, and the budget for the Bahn (railway) is highly demanding.

Three things need to happen....a correction to the economy, admitting Merkel's move toward dumping gas/diesel cars was stupid (now mandated by the EU), and something has to change in terms of Burger-Geld (the welfare fund)....meaning out-of-work people need to be forced  to participate and get a job.

There is a crisis and the economy is now among the top three problems facing the nation, but the SPD-Green-FDP coalition just isn't the folks to correct the problem. And if you wrote the fixes required...it'll unhinge about half the voters in some way.

24 Sep 2024: Eleven German News Stories

 1.  Rail folks set the 2025 monthly Deutschland ticket (travel on bus and rail per month).....58 Euro (or 2024, it was 49 Euro).

Still a decent bargain (you just can't ride ICE (inner-city rapid rail).

Staying at 58 Euro into  2026?  NO, I would not go and expect that....it'll probably go up another 10 Euro.

What can you travel on with the monthly ticket?  All public buses, subways, local trains, and regional trains.  You can't use the ticket for inter-city fast rail options or high-speed train (ICE) situations.  

2.  From the weekend,  a lot of 'horror' over Octoberfest food/beer prices.  Roast pork platter, 27.80 Euro.  16.90 Euro for a half-chicken and pommes.  

I'd  sum it up.....for one guy to spend a single 12-hour period on the grounds (eating and drinking).....you better bring a minimum of 250 Euro.

3.  The key thing to take out of the Brandenburg state election results from Sunday?  Just a lot of people who believe some reform or change has to occur with migration and deportation.  Even if you have 100 people who refuse to vote AfD....at least half of them will  be focused on crime, lack of deportation efforts, and too many asylum folks arriving in Germany.  

4.  WELT piece from Monday....analysis shows while a big win in Brandenburg's election.....three-quarters of people who DID vote for SPD....say they aren't that thrilled with SPD's leadership or path ahead.

5.  VW has thrown an idea up....to get people thrilled to buy an E-car....a scrapping bonus.  This would mean you showing up at a dealer with a gas/diesel car....buying a E-car, and the old gas/diesel car being sent to the scrap yard (instead of being re-sold).  

Most analysts hearing this idea...are NOT that thrilled.  It means the gov't would have to be involved and inflate some fund out of thin air....into the billions of Euro.

6.  Dorothea Siems of WELT wrote an interesting article for Monday....worth reading if you can find it.  Her chief comment?  

I'll phrase it this way....'Germany is like a great night-club....but it needs bouncers at the front-door' (meaning migration only occurs when you manage the entrance and exit.

I liked the way it was worded and would agree....it's an absolute night-club and could be a five-star experience.  But you don't want to worry about your safety or bad-boy behavior.  

The chief problem....there are no current bouncers, and I doubt if any of the political parties want to hand this job out....fearing the atmosphere would spiral in some way.

7.  New poll done for national politics.....Greens at 9-percent...lowest point in seven years.  Possible by fall 2025 election....that they may be close to 7-percent.

8. This suggested repeat of the 2008/2009 German cash-for-junkers (cars) program is being brought up by the Greens....to save the VW company.

Basic idea in 2008/2009.....you had a older car (say more than 12 years old)....you were given  more than fair value, you agreed to trade the car in....getting a new German-made car, and the old car got smashed up for recycling.

Who hated the program?  Mostly parts dealers.

How much was spent in 2008/2009?  In the neighborhood of 6-billion Euro. 

The question if this program was brought up? Mainly goes to two issues.  First....you are forced to buy an E-car....is there really a willing nature to buy such a car?  Second, unless you raised taxes in some fashion....the present coalition doesn't have 6-billion Euro laying around (mostly because of the war business).

I should state as well....you'd have to have the EU bless this idea and I'm not that confident they'd be happy that you limit this to only German-made cars.

What happens if this fails (the 'doom' scenario)?  Well....you reach a point of discovering that the vast majority of the German society don't  want E-cars, and that VW can't be saved....even if offered 6-billion Euro.  Really an amazing story...considering this is a car-nation.  

9.  City of Heilbronn (NW) talking about a 'limit' on barber shops, kebab shops and nail saloons in the city center.  There's a belief that too much competition is existing and causing 'failures'

Generally, I'd say the same thing for Wiesbaden and how crowded the three operations have become in the center of town.

Legal?  I'd say it'll be challenged.  Lot of people would say there are too many shoe shops or cellphone shops as well.

10.  I sat and watched a report from Munich....over Oktoberfest prices last night.  Guy was interviewed....having taken five friends into a tent for a couple hours of food/drink.  Final bill?  549 Euro, for roughly 3 hours.  

11. Growing belief within political circles that a fall 2025 election will result in the FDP Party getting LESS than 5-percent of the national vote, and ending their seats in the Bundestag.  

Radical Trip?

 This AM, via Lufthansa at my local Frankfurt Airport....you can fly via their discount airline (Discover) twice a week up to the most northern point of Europe....to Alta, Norway.....to the ALF airport.  New service deal.

I sat and pondered over this.  A 3.5 hour flight....mostly to a place that 99-percent of people would not go.

Chief purpose?  Well....there's only two angles to this trip.  Either you are thrilled to be in a 22-hour per day darkness (winter months) or 22-hour per dark light (summer months).....OR you want to desperately see the northern lights.

Cost factor?  Well...as you breeze through the options....what they hint is in the 230 Euro range, but in the end.....to get basic options.....it's in the 480 Euro for a R/T ticket.  Oh, and I should say....it's a full 7-day deal.

I admit...I've had this interest in the northern lights situation.....but after you've seen it for one evening....then what?  You have 6 remaining days on the trip.  The local tourist pitch....some kind of 'rock-art' museum?  I'd probably have to consume a fair amount of alcohol daily to keep myself thrilled.

Germans hyped up to do this?  I could see locally.....maybe a thousand folks willing to pay and make a 7-day trip.  Some would just want to de-stress for a week, and absorb all the northern lights, with a half-bottle of gin per night.  A few might be desperate to see real freaking snowfall. 

23 Sep 2024: Nine German News Stories

1.  Early on Sunday morning (4:30 AM)....explosive device went off in Bonn (3rd episode in a month).  Some perception by police....connected to gang-war starting up in Koln.  No one wounded.

2.   ARD TV news did a report on Sunday....noting the question....for those asylum-seekers who already have placement/papers to stay in Germany.....is the current integration program working (or enough)?

If you posed this to working-class Germans....more than half would say something 'else' has to be put into the system....to 'Germanize' new residents.  

From my prospective....without much training or programs....it takes a good ten years for someone new guy to assemble all the vast knowledge and 'wit'....to really fit quietly into the German system.  

3.  Merz, 'boss' of the CDU Party....gave a talk Saturday an said....the odds of a partnership with the BSW Party is pretty remote.

4.  One in three German police employees....report that they've heard racist/sexist comments from their co-workers.  To be honest, if you asked plumbers, fire-fighters, transmission mechanics....it's probably the same statistic.

5.  Four-percent of the German population (around 3.5-million) in the country...are migrant-asylum status folks.  I should state for the record....a fair number of the folks are from Ukraine, and whether they stay here or return home....is a question-mark.

6.  Winner and losers in Brandenburg state election from Sunday:

SPD: 30.9-percent.

AfD: 29.2-percent.

Greens: 4.3-percent

CDU: 12.1-percent.

BSW: 13.5-percent.

FW: 3-percent.

Two curious notes.  First among the 18-to-25 age group....very high number went to AfD.  Second, Greens did dismal and will not have seats in the state assembly.

7.  As bad as the losses-chat for VW is currently.....it gets a lot worse for the end of 2025.  I'm not saying this is the end of VW....but what magic is done by the Bundestag....will be the biggest 'fix' since WW II.  Help for Ukraine in 2025?  I'd suggest that it dramatically drops by 90-percent.

8.  Between my gym (in town) and my village.....there's a building which has been a bakery/cafe for 10 years....which shut down about three months ago.  This week, workers showed up.....started a renovation project.  

New business?  Well...nail saloon.  Yep....a booming industry in Wiesbaden...must be at least fifteen of them already.  Money-laundering operation?  Well....I often wonder about that.  Twenty years ago in town....might have been three or four total.

9.  Over the Brandenburg election results....lot of chatter on Sunday evening suggesting that a early federal election is now possible....with the FDP possibly giving notice of unhooking to the coalition.  

I'd rank it as mostly BS.  Would  shock some folks  for a new election.

Former Chancellor Schroder's Ukraine-Russia 'Solution'?

 Well....former German Chancellor Gerhard Schröder (you have to go back 20 years ago to remember him).....opted an idea for "a compromise solution" for the Ukraine-Russia war.

So, it would work this way.....two basic pieces: Donbas (eastern Ukrainian state now mostly occupied mostly by Russia)....is given back to Ukraine (meaning Russian troop just up and leave).  Second piece?  Crimea turns into a independent 'state'....kinda like South Tyrol of Italy....without 'much' control by Ukraine.  I won't call it a country, but it'd almost turn into one.

Ukraine view of this idea?  NO.

I'll say three observations here....(1) the whole south-eastern chunk of Ukraine is a screwed-up war zone, and I doubt if anyone really cares to move back there. (2) To rebuild what was damaged or destroyed?  Into the hundreds of billions.  (3) Presently, I'd say from war-dead from both countries....it's getting close to 500,000-plus. 

Schroder making this suggestion?  From most Germans....he's not exactly liked by 90-percent of the country, and you won't find public TV news covering him much. So the idea will drift around for 24 hours and disappear.

Footnote: If you assembled a list of all Russian-made military hardware from 2000 to now....it's 99-percent depleted.  Meaning?  They are probably into mostly 1980-to-2000 manufactured hardware at this point (drifting into 1970s equipment).  Russian threat to Europe?  Nothing much for the next forty years, unless you went back to buying Russian natural gas and helping to fund their rebuilding process.

22 Sep 2024: Four German News Stories

 1.  How big is this Brandenburg state election today?  Well....it would really help the SPD...if they came out ahead of AfD (not expected).  Major topic on the minds of most residents of that state?  Crime, migration, lack of deportation.

Other topic brewing?  FW-Party is hitting a lot on media an might get to 5-percent, which is a big deal for them.

2.  Oktoberfest price shock?  15 Euro for premium beer in the 1-liter stein.

3.  There are 320 new city abbreviations being created for car-tags.  For example, Flörsheim am Main gets its own tag now....FM.  If you wanted to flip over to your local town's lettering?  10 Euro.  ID?  New for Idstein (in my region).

4.  Lot of indicators of a 'gang-war' starting up in Koln.  Even locals are starting to be concerned. Two explosive events in the past month.

How Tomorrow's Brandenburg State Election Stacks Up?

 Well....it's a two-way situation....with the AfD Party expected to win with around 28-percent of the vote,  and the SPD coming in 2nd place at 27-percent.

Greens?  Somewhere between 3 and 4 percent.

CDU?  At around 14 to 16 percent.

BSW?  In the 12-to-13 percent range.

The FW Party?  Well....it's picking up votes at the last minute and some folks think they will clear near 5-percent.

Forming a coalition state gov't?  AfD won't find a partner.  So I expect the SPD to partner up with the CDU, the FW folks, and maybe BSW.  

Yeah, it's very splintered and not a good sign.  

Talk over failed migration figuring into this election?  Yes, and it's a clear problem for both the SPD and CDU to  discuss.  

Around Sunday evening....7 PM, you should get the vote count.

21 Sep 2024: Six German News Stories

 1.  E-car fire on A-9 autobahn near Halle.....triggered huge traffic jam, and cancelled the soccer game at the regional stadium.

2.  Interesting story taking place in Bavaria....near Tirschenreuth.  ISIS supporter in local village and villagers would like for the guy to be deported.  On the books, he's identified as "extremely dangerous." 

Has a criminal record as well.

However, because he's a Syrian and it's still considered a war-zone....German authorities can't send back.  

Village heavily focused now on migration and deportation issues.

3.  German news is saying this Hezbollah beeper attack....was planned out originally around 15 years ago.  Tremendous amount of effort.

4.  BAMF (the asylum-approval folks for Germany) says there are 85,000 asylum seekers in Germany.....who first appeared and were in Greece (a safe country).  Will drag up the topic of discussion if they should reside in Greece instead of Germany.

5.  German border control checks.....police report from yesterday....a car with 7 migrants attempted to enter Germany (with 3 of them hidden in the trunk).

6.  Economics Minister Habeck (Green Party) visited a VW plant....says the future is E-cars.  

Interest in E-cars across the Germany economy peaked in 2023.  Majority of Germans aren't buying into the technology. 

Fake Chatter Discussion

So this is an odd legal case....ZDF is the Channel 2 folks....of public TV.  They run a program called Neo Royale.  They decided to suggest/report....that the former President of the Federal Office for Information Security (Arne Schonbohm) was connected in some way to Russian secret agents.  

Well....Schonbohm decided to take this to court.  The Munich court system read through everything and said that the news reporting of ZDF....connecting him to Russian agents....was bogus (fake).

This all goes back to October of 2022 (the Covid era).  

All of this to be discussed a bit in public?  I would imagine a handful of Germans will ask how ZDF's reporters got this wrong.  

My humble thought?  Maybe this was a case where the actual REAL Russian secret agents....were pretending to be Germans, and gave ZDF the fake story.  Yeah, I know....this sounds crazy, but the story had to start somewhere.....and it just makes you wonder if some Russian guys thought it'd be funny to invent a secret-agent story out of thin air.

Adding to this....almost weekly, someone in the public TV situation tries to suggest Russian propaganda existing in Germany, and lifting public sentiment that Russian agents are everywhere.

20 Sep 2024: Five Germany News Stories

 1.  Interesting piece in Focus this AM....topic?  'Focus on migration is reshaping the political landscape, and presenting problems for the Green Party'.

Interesting prospective and polling is proving the point.  Voters for the Green Party 3 years ago....have jumped out, and will not be voting Green next year.  Figure?  Presently from the 2021 numbers....I'd say Greens lose one-quarter to one-third of their 2021 voters.

2.  VW says the total number of workers to be dismissed in 2025....is near 30,000....a lot of which....will be from Germany.

You can expect a huge political reaction.  I expect both the CDU and SPD to spend whatever amount of money required....to save the company.  Whether the gas/diesel end-point stays or not.....to be debated. 

3.  There's talk....if the Brandenburg state election (in the next weekend) goes badly....the 'boss' of the SPD Party (Esken) might be forced to resign.

4.  This border-control business harming German commerce?  Some  reports are suggesting in 12 months....it'll amount to a billion-plus Euro in losses....if  this continues on.

5.  Ifo did a study of vacant office space in highly urbanized areas of Germany.....suggesting a conversion to condo-space....would be a great idea.

Germany Snake Story

 I noticed yesterday....a weird snake story.  

Up in northern Germany, near the Danish border....local authorities warned folks of a snake 'loose'.

From the chatter, this is a Green Tree snake....which would normally only be found in Africa.  So the discussion started up....who exactly had such a snake, and allowed it to escape from the cage.

Poisonous?  YES. 

The fact that it might be two (male and female)?  Well....no one said that....but you have to wonder.

Train Story

When I first hear this story....I thought it was bogus.  Upon examination....NO, it is a true situation.

So, in Germany....normally...train-conductors can walk through  a train and ask to see your ticket.

No ticket?  You get a fine (around 60 Euro). 

Occasionally, you have folks who have no ticket and refuse to participate in the 60 Euro fine 'situation'.

In the state of Thuringia (eastern state)....there's been so much trouble with non-Germans having no ticket and a ruckus starting up.....that the conductors were told by the Bahn 'bosses' (not the gov't).....if you have a non-German  on the train and no ticket situation....move on (don't fine the guy/gal).

It sounded bogus to me.  So I checked it out.   True story.

ONLY in the state of Thuringia, and it would appear to be regional (short-range) trains.

Germans accepting this type of management?  Well....no, this is one of those things that will get people hyped-up and asking how you can allow this to occur.

Between train and bus travel....over the years, I've probably witnessed at least 50 occasions like this.  From 1978 to 2010.....it was a pretty rare situation, and mostly with Germans.  For the past decade?  I've probably seen this occur at least 30 times, and the bulk being either teenage German kids, or non-Germans.  

Raising a ruckus as your strategy?  I can tell you.....it doesn't work.  The  conductor usually calls the police, and you get into bigger trouble.

My advice....buy the ticket or don't travel.

Just Humble Thoughts

 I sat and watched a German news piece last night....around 5 minutes long.  Topic?  Germans on a second, and even third job....to pay their bills.

The general number of Germans with a minimum of a 2nd job?  Roughly five-percent of society who work.  

The three ladies interviewed for the news item?  They basically run from 6 AM to late evening....to get the hours in and accumulate a standard of living.

Minimum wage not cutting it?  I'd say that's one of the issues.  But if you live in any metropolitan region of Germany....your rent is a major problem.  Grocery prices?  Higher than two years ago.  Electrical and natural gas prices?  Way more since the Russia-Ukraine war started.

This number of people with second jobs?  I would suggest by spring of 2025...it'll be closer to 7 percent, and it'll amount to a election topic.

19 Sep 2024: Three German News Stories

1.  Last night on the ARD 8 PM news.....they covered the Lebanon beeper-story, from a unusual aspect.  The company who typically made this particular beeper....were interviewed.

So it seems that around 2-to-3 years ago....they were contacted by a Hungarian company who wanted to use their basic design (patent ownership in Taiwan). The Taiwan company worked out a deal....and this Hungarian  company made the product (encrypted beeper....one-way design). 

So the beeper was sold  in high numbers to this Lebanese group.  

News folks went to the address given by the Taiwanese company in Hungary.  Well....it's just a mail-box.  There's no real business there. 

Where did the manufactured components really get made?  Unknown.  I'm just guessing here....but it's probably NOT in Europe.  

2.  Poll done with Germans.....almost 40-percent want some version of early retirement, instead of working to 67.

3.  Oktoberfest will open with 600 police on duty during the period.  

Three Observations

1.  Last night, I went with the German wife over to the grocery.  They had done an amazing thing....the Covid-plexiglass between you (the customer) and the clerk?  Gone. It'd been there since fall of 2020.

Does Covid ever get brought up?  No....It's just awful rare that people discuss it.  I might see one person a week with a mask on.

2. If voters leave the Green Party.....the most likely replacement organization?  I'd say it's 50-50.....SPD or BSW Party.  A big deal?  Presently, if the numbers hold and don't decrease any more....the Greens lose one vote of every three from 2021's election.

3.  Yesterday in Wiesbaden, at the railway station....we had some drunk guy from Mainz....who did a fair number of Hitler-salutes.  Cops were called....looking at camera action, and agreed.  Arrested the guy.  Yeah, BS like that...can get into stupid trouble, and state-charges.

18 Sep 2024: Five German News Stories

1.  Berlin, some party boat had a roof-collapse to occur.  29 folks wounded.

2.  Ricarda Lang, boss of the Green Party of Germany....made a statement yesterday...."It's become a national sport to hate the Green Party."

I would suggest the hype of the Green Party peaked around 3 years ago, and because of the economy and migration....there's a fair amount of disdain for the party.  Trending now?  Back in 2021 (election), they were near 14.7-percent of the national vote.  Presently, with polls....I'd say they are trending near 10-percent (meaning they've lost around one-third of their voters).

3.  Coalition gov't says the pension/social security tax has to go up in 2025.

4.  The AfD Party (right-wing) made a accusation against ARD (the public-TV network)....saying for their documentary piece 'The 100 - What Moves Germany'....used 'actors' instead of regular people.

ARD went on the defensive....saying no....these were regular people. 

I'll just say...up to this point, unlike US news services who DO use actors on occasion....neither ARD or ZDF has done any of this trick-business for news interviews.  If they were caught in doing so....some people would be fired rather quickly.

5.  Talks  within the CDU-CSU Parties concluded yesterday....Soder (Premier-President of Bavaria and CSU 'boss') agreed to support Merz (CDU 'boss') as the chancellor candidate...in the 2025 national election.

Just a humble guess....as  the CDU-CSU wins (at least 30-percent of the vote)....I think Soder gets the Finance Minister job.  

Who ends up in the partnership deal of a coalition gov't?  Some people think the cards are being laid out for the BSW to get invited (ahead of the SPD Party).  I don't think that the Green Party will get an invitation to the coalition. 

Also, just a guess here, but because Merz's age....I think he's a one-term Chancellor....meaning when the 2029 election comes around....Soder might get the full support to be the chancellor candidate.  

Two Curious Topics

 1.  Last night, I was watching late-news on ARD, and they got to talking about the number of applications for asylum in the first half of 2024....nearing the 120,000 point (about 25,000 off from the same time of 2023).  Majority?   Leading the way....Afghans and Syrians.

But there is this odd element  of the discussion.....these are the people who applied,  and were either accepted or put on a deportation list.

If you go and walk around any major town now in Germany, it is becoming obvious that a fair number of folks have arrived, and avoided the paperwork. Yeah, undocumented and not wanting to announce themselves to the German government.  

How many?  There is no way to collect this data, or to have a legit discussion over the practice.

Could there be half-a-million undocumented folks around the country?  Well....yeah....it's possible.  

A couple  of years ago in the Neuschwanstein region....a Chinese couple on a tour....just up and walked off (disappearing).  I would imagine they had the money set up in Germany and had some 'sponsor' who agreed to house them.  There might be a hundred Chinese a week who arrive in some fashion and just lounge around with cash in their hands....avoiding the identification to the authorities.

Would it bother Germans if a lot of people were hidden in the system?  I'm guessing they'd ask how this was possible. 

2.  ARD's Tagesschau (the news hour on public TV)....came up and asked....'what can we do about Russian propaganda'.

The TV news crowd, and the political landscape....are all concerned about the amount of propaganda that exists.  

A fair number of Germans would say that ARD (the public TV folks) itself pumps out propaganda, and this simply balances things.

So what's going to happen?  If you look at the angle of discussion....the gov't thinks they can limit or cut Russian propaganda...yet as they talk about this....TikTok is still on full-blast, and you could easily insert Russian propaganda into any video.

All of this leading to skepticism?  I'd say with German youth...ages 16 to 25....probably one-third of them have a fair amount skepticism over everything they hear....no matter who is talking or producing.

My expectation?  Over the next six months....a lot of in-house training will occur where German journalists try to teach you to recognize propaganda, and the more you watch.....the more you question all news you seem to hear.

17 Sep 2024: Five German News Stories

 1.  Just odd....a few weeks ago....various German officials showed up in Magdeburg to showcase the Intel project of building a major plant to be a future chip-maker.  Well....some decline has been noted in the number of chips required, and the whole construction project now seems to be slowed down (halted in fact).  May be a two-year delay in the process.  Yeah, pretty unusual.

2.  INSA poll done....CDU Party at high-point.  33-percent of voters say they'd vote for them in an election.

3.  Focus interview with a German teacher....saying that some of the 10-year-old students can't read.  Worth a read.

4.  WELT article this AM...talk of short-time work returning.  Gov't program (short-time) means a financial situation has arrived and companies will cut production.  Normally, without short-time, you would just lay off personnel.  Under short-time....you simply assign the worker to some limited hours of work (like 30 hours a week, instead of 38 hours).  Positive program, but a bad sign for the economy.

5.  Meyer Werft, the cruise boat builder.....is in financial trouble.  German gov't has agreed to help them with funding for the time being, until cruise ship building returns to 'normal'. 

16 Sep 2024: Five German News Stories

 1.  I skipped watcheding the public forum show on ARD (public German TV) last night.....the Caren Miosga show.  Scheduled discussion?  Migration and the CDU Party's North Rhine-Westphalia's Prime Minister Wüst.

So from news reports....things got distracted for a while....the show allows audieces and is done 'live'.  It was interrupted by demonstrators, who had some agenda to bring up the deaths of two Kurdish journalists. 

Some kind of banner came up with the names of the two journalists (dead).

Miosga?  Well....she asked in a nice way for the ladies shouting....to state their cause (briefly) or leave the building.

That seemed to work to some degree.  Staff folks tried to talk to them and show concern.  

To be honest, with NFL football action going on, and various options on TV....I doubt that maybe one out of twenty Germans were watching the public forum show (it  comes on at 9:45 PM anyway).  

Wouldn't surprise me if they cut the audience out in future episodes.

2.   Some oil and natural gas prices are on the decline for this winter, in terms of heating costs.  You might be able to say that increasing numbers of Germans switching over to heat-pumps did this, but it's a very small number.  

3.  New migration deal signed between Germany and Uzbekistan.  Limited explanation via public TV.  Chancellor Scholz was visiting and signed the agreement over the weekend.

4.  WELT had a piece this AM...talking over increasing numbers of Venezuelan refugees in Saxony (the state).....over past year....one out of five in Saxony applying for asylum....were from Venezuela. Locals say they make a very strong to immigrate and get jobs.

5.  Lot of flooding in Czech and Poland.....due to heavy rains.  'Storm of the century' is uttered a good bit.

14 Sep 2024: Ten German News Stories

 1.  Lufthansa is going to lease a couple of passenger planes from Air Baltic....more business than expected.

2.  26 districts of Germany put on flood-alert for the weekend.  Heavy rain to the southeast.

3.  Disney-plus streaming video....awful desperate.....lowering first 3 months to 1.99 Euro to lure German consumers in.

4.  Skeptical story....German gov't reporting that five-times the normal amount of sick days being used presently (in last quarter)....saying it's due to increased colds.

5.  Focus piece this AM.....lot of EU political figures now worried over car industry and loss of jobs (suggesting this millions potential affected).  A lot of this....goes  back to C02 topics and the approaching gas/diesel 'dump' (2035).  Accompanying this....the car industry has said in research....they expect billions in fines on themselves to occur....meaning the collapse could occur fairly quickly.  EU able to save them?  How?  Unless you agree the whole logic of C02-worry was BS.  

6.  German gov't now admits that once you apply for asylum and fail....if you demand a 2nd review (legal system)....it takes an average of 18 months to complete the 2nd check.  Politicians are demanding this be done in 90 days.  Only way to reach this?  You'd have to hire several thousand 'extra' judicial people to speed up the process.

7.  German pharmacy association says that there is a nation-wide shortage of about 500 medications.  Antibiotics now on the list.

8.  Saxony investigation of voter-fraud in the recent election....centering on one poll-worker....44-year-old.  Appears that the person did some shady stuff.  If this is laid out and legit?  It'll shock some people.  But it just doesn't appear that he did more than dozens of vote-fraud.

9.  The 49-Euro Bahn card (bus-train use)?  Well....LOT of chatter that it's  going to increase by 40-percent in January.  I'll just say it was under-priced from day one and required gov't sponsorship to be priced at 49-Euro.

10.  For a brief 60 seconds...some German-Kenyan treaty was discussed on the news last night.  You won't find much mention today via any of the news organizations.

The deal?  Germany agrees over a multi-year period to take up to 250,000 Kenyan 'qualified'/trained Kenyans....through a process.

Problems?  You'd have to show qualifications...meaning a year or two of training, or some college time.....so the typical crowd with marginal skills....won't be accepted.  If you apply, there will be a process....meaning a background review.  If you had some bad-boy behavior, you probably won't be accepted.  If accepted, you get a visa, and fly into Germany (legit).

The best and brightest leaving Kenya?  Well...YEAH.  That is a big problem I see developing.  Kenya seems to think after five to ten years of employment in Germany....the folks might return. I'd have my doubts on that.

All done on a Friday?  Yeah....this announcement is a bit bitter for the public to understand.  No mention of this in the past year?  No, and if you were a bit anti-migrant....this will just make you more anti-SPD and anti-Green Party.

The positive side?  You can review people before they leave and have a better idea that they are stable and capable of work required.  I'm also of the mind that 30-plus percent of those applying/being accepted....will be females.  

This Threat From Putin

 From yesterday's news....Russia's Putin came out and said if longer-range missiles are used by Ukraine against Russia itself....Russia will consider it a act of aggression by Europe.

BS?  I think the Russians have a strategy where a dozen 'soft' targets in Europe could be hit.....just to show 'concern'.  

All of this leading to a wider conflict?  Well....yeah.

So I think a couple of NATO members will wake up....stop the use of missiles by Ukraine, and this 'epic-problem' dissolves.

12 Sep 2024: Six German News Stories

 1.  The Carolabrucke....the bridge leading to the 'old-town' area of Dresden over the river....partially collapsed.  Built in 1967....the fire department is reviewing what remains....saying they expect the entire bridge is probably finished.  One interesting detail....no vehicles were lost, and no injuries reported.

It's one of four bridges in the city, and yes....it is a big deal on the non-use.  Last big audit/inspection of the bridge?  Three years ago.  

A continuing footnote on renovations of bridges and why so many are being reviewed for safety reasons.

Footnote: after this collapse....just a awful lot of chatter via TV news and discussion groups...in that dozens of major bridges in Germany are in a condition requiring replacement.

2.  1.8 meters of snow forecasted by this weekend in the Austrian Alps and encroaching upon Germany.  Maybe a month ahead of normal snowfall.  Last year? Well....it was one of the early snowfall years for central Germany, and around my valley....probably one-third of a meter over a week.  

Added to the snowfall....if you head into Czech and the region south....massive amount of rain expected over next four days....lot of flooding to occur.

3.  Interesting WELT article from Wed.....talking to the topic of media 'Antifa' situations.  German public has come to notice off public TV chat forums....moderators are gearing up a crew when AfD Party politicians appear on the show....to oppose them in strong ways.

I won't disagree with the tactic.  The moderators probably believe they are on some moral high-ground, and there's nothing wrong with 'hitting' AfD.  The problem I see....as people watch this, it wouldn't take much to say public TV has a problem, and enhance the idea of gutting the TV tax.

4.  Curious story over Koln's 'Pascha' brothel (largest brothel in Europe).  For those not familiar with it....it is a pink-colored building designed as a hotel, but serving as a legit and licensed German brothel.

So, there's been this investigation going on.  Oddly, the owners 'sold' residence permits to well-to-do Chinese folks.

Brothel temporarily owned by the gov't?  Well....yeah.  The rest of this story?  It goes off to suggest that the well-to-do folks are people-smugglers in some way, and I'm just guessing here....but female Chinese folks are being part of this story.

5.  There was a open-talk in the Bundestag yesterday.  Things got highly critical of the Chancellor (Scholz).  When he finally got up and did defensive talk....he got highly animated (more so than usual, lot of arm waving).

6.   Across all of Germany today (Thursday)....it's supposed to be a test of the national warning system (not just sirens, but includes cellphones as well).

11 Sep 2024: Fourteen German News Stories

 1. Germany has said if you are a migrant trying to enter German from the border states....they can refuse you and send you back to the border state.

Well....yesterday, Austria announced that it will NOT accept a migrant sent back across the border.

Just a humble feeling....by the end of 2024....I suspect six European countries will have a massive border control going on, and likely extending through all of 2025.  

The EU needing to resolve this? Yeah, but how?  I'll predict for the 2025 fall election in Germany....both the CDU and SPD have to promise the public of a massive border control-force (probably in the range of 12,000 personnel to be created by 2027).  Funny how we revolve back to tight borders like it was in 1984.  

I should add...with border security bumped-up (even on the Austrian border)....it's possible the German police would encounter some refugee....determine their status on the spot, and deny them entry....meaning they get turned around and sent back into Austria.  If the Austrians are there to grasp the moment, the refugee would re-enter Austria (without paperwork or status).  When he approaches the Austrians and requests migration papers....they will ask questions, and this will be interesting to see how they allow him to stay.

2.  Chancellor Scholz talks of major effort to bring peace-talks up between the Ukraine and Russia.

I think Scholz wants to get this off the ground before January, and the possibility that Trump is President again, and staging his own peace-talks.

3.  German doctors  want to push an agenda....if you miss an appointment...out of your own pocket (not health insurance)....you need to pay a 'fee'.  How much?  Left out of the talk so far....but I would assume something in the range of 50 Euro.

4.  SWR (public TV for the Pfalz) did a news item....suggesting a Trump 'win' will mean the end of Spangdahlem and Ramstein Air Bases.

BS?  

I'll just say that the war in the Ukraine has proven a number of things....one of which....is that Russia isn't capable of invading Europe  (especially after all the loses they've encountered).

Add to this....there is a debt problem brewing for the US, and budget gutting is a absolute must.

Finally, a lot of people will suggest that in the 1990s....NATO should have evolved, and the US should have picked the time to lessen  its presence.  Because of the Balkans War....that never happened.

So yeah, I also speculate that a Trump-win means the exit-door is opened.

5.  This week, my village (4k residents) is having a town-hall meeting, and one topic to be discussed.....having the entire village set to a 30 kph (19 mph) speed limit.

Presently....about 90-percent of the town is set to 50 kph (31 mph).  

A big deal?  There are four entry-exit points to the village.  I don't think it'll be a big deal...other than the idea....probably a year away....to having a blitz-camera to create speeding tickets  (my belief).

The village over the hill from mine....has around five blitz-cameras.  

6.   At some point on Tuesday morning in Ingolstadt (Bavaria)....two guys (25/22) are at some bus stop and get into a argument.

Both board a bus, and one guy stabs the other (seriously injured).

Cops have arrested the knife guy.  Depending on the number of charges....he could be looking at five years in prison (my guess).

7.  I skipped watching Monday night's 'Hart Aber Fair' political chat-forum show.  Looking over reports....it was an interesting discussion.  It was mostly about migration in Germany, knife-attacks, and the general perception among Germans.

So the Interior Minister of NRW was there, and made some analysis....in simple terms, he notes....'you aren't allowed to name problems, because the minute you do, people want to stigmatize you'.

I don't disagree with his observation....this is an odd development in the past decade, and one of the reasons why almost one-third of the country is seriously anti-migrant.  If you think the other two-thirds are pro-migrant....you'd be wrong.  I'd say it's near 50-percent of Germans who'd accept migration, but they want rules, processes, and limits.  

At 8:15 PM on Monday night (prior to 'Hart Aber Fair'....what ARD (public TV, channel 1) did run....was a 45-min documentary piece called "Future in East Germany."

I watched the bulk of the documentary piece.  My description?  ARD sent a team to talk to people in Eastern Germany, and laid out their negative views of migrants.  The selling point of the documentary?  To convince the non-eastern Germans that these poor people in the east....just don't get it (they aren't like us).  Skepticism?  This is the key part of the overall story, which I think the journalists  missed.  It's just a lot of skepticism building up within the working-class community, and some journalists telling you a story....doesn't mean you buy any part of it.

8.  Chatter yesterday....health insurance for Germans will likely climb in the 20-percent range for 2025.

9.  The coalition gov't (SPD-Greens-FDP) gave a news conference after their meeting on the migration 'problem' yesterday.

Basic description....nothing happened of any consequence.  

The funny side of this developing mess...is that migration woes have now moved up to a top-three problem, and we are within a year of the federal election.  As long as they just 'stall'....it's just adding 'points' to the CDU-CSU voter-base.  I feel confident that they know the consequence.

10.  VW came out yesterday and said 'job-security' is gone.  Within 2025....a number of positions will be eliminated.  

11.  Heino (the popular German singer) came out and said something to the effect....'Germany needs a political figure like Trump'....then referenced it to the safety factor....saying 'it can't possibly be that in Germany, people are fearful of going out on the streets'.

While he'll be stigmatized for the Trump reference....the truth is that there is no such politician existing in Germany....so you don't need to fear for the arrival of a German-Trump.

But his other reference....the fear factor?  I don't think it exists in small towns or villages.  But when you come to cities of 100,000 or more....probably a good thirty-percent or more of the population....pay attention now to the surroundings and are more vigilant than five years ago.  The knifings and personal assaults/robberies....add up.

The only thing that the politicians can do?  Add more police....stage more patrols....frisk people at random....talk about more deportations while being unable to accomplish them.  Vicious circle.

12. WELT analysis article, published today....worth a read if you can find the paper.  Topic?  The dismantling of the German nuclear power capability is a mess.  By their numbers, shutting them down worsened the C02 balance even more, and the true money-cost is around 600 billion Euro.  

13. Draft of the 2025 German federal budget published yesterday.....3,000 pages long. 

14.  BMW gave a warning yesterday....profitability is now a problem for stock-holders.  

In Terms Of Immigration, Why Is The Better 'Deal' In Germany?

 Back around eight years ago....I watched some German public forum show (I'll admit....maybe 60 percent of the time...they do present a good discussion and sometimes a audience member asks a 1,000 Euro question).

In this forum...migration and immigration was the key topic, and someone stood to ask...why is it that migrants usually ONLY want to migrate toward the UK or Germany?  

It was a legit question I thought, and no one could give much of an answer....so they just moved on.

What people have quietly said since then....both the UK and Germany offer better 'allowances', benefits, and more likely to accept migrants.

The fact that the EU has never established a 'standard'?  Well....yeah, I've often wondered about that.  

The essential problem here?  Well....in the mind of a typical Greek or Portuguese political figure....they are not about to offer a German 'standard' for a migration situation.  The German political figure?  He's not about to accept a low-ball Greek figure for the migrant.  

It's the same essential argument when you talk over qualifications....where the Poles or Spanish folks would readily accept people with nursing backgrounds or engineering degrees....but they really don't want to bring in 15,000 folks who only have a background in running a fruit-carts (in the old country).

The EU folks trying to re-balance this discussion?  Good luck on that.

10 Sep 2024: Eight German News Stories

 1.  Interesting WELT article from Monday....worth reading if you can find the paper.  Kurd who immigrated into Germany back in 2015....now a successful lifeguard in Germany....interviewed.  He says from work-experience (from the pool business)....a fair number of migrants arrive and want to impose the old country rules upon Germans.

2.  AfD Party in Thuringia....asked two parties to coalition talks (CDU and BSW).  Both refused to participate.

Zero chance of a AfD coalition gov't, but you have 30 days typically to attempt to form one.

3.  Push to bring minimum wage in Germany to 15 Euro an hour.

4.  BSW Party stirred the migration-issue 'pot' yesterday.  New idea.

So in their plan.....as the migrant enters Germany and asks for paperwork to start their application....the police would ask.....how did you arrive?  Answer...via France, Poland, Austria, etc?  These are safe  countries....you need to return there and apply in those  countries.

Only way you could pass via this strategy?   You'd have to fly in (remember airlines check for passports/visas) or boat in (from the Atlantic or Baltic). 

Odds of passing?  I think right off the bat....the CDU/CSU would support the idea. 

5.  Asylum center planned in Rott am Inn (hour's drive SE of Munich)....in village of 4,000 residents.....had a protest situation start up.  Majority of town has said 'no' to the center.  I looked at the size planned out for this 'center'.....would have taken 500 guests....so it is a sizeable place on the plan.

6.  Some talk going on in the grocery chains....lack of skilled deli-department people.  Actual suggestion going on.....that they would temporarily bring in non-Germans to do the work.  

7.  Weather folks talking about a huge 'wet' front coming through on Thursday....expect flooding.

8.  By order of the Interior Minister....for next six months....'control' will be established at the border.  Massive amount of police effort.  They've already warned the Ministry that this can't run indefinitely, without a manpower 'fix'.  

9 Sep 2024: Ten German News Stories

 1.  Concerning that machete-Albanian guy who walked into a Koblenz area police station at 2:30 AM Saturday and threatened to kill police....being apprehended and charged-up.

When you walk into a German police station (I've walked into a couple)....there's the outer door which is controlled, so you usually have to buzz your way past it.  Then you enter into a customer-room, with a security glass area where the cops are sitting.  If they invite you past the customer-room....you have to get 'buzzed' to enter their area. 

So, this nut-case who made the threat....got locked right there in the customer area.  Once they got the taser out, and had a couple of police in the parking lot.....this guy was 'toast'.  

On police-threat charges?  I would imagine he's looking at enough to get a full-year in jail.

2.  I sat and watched a N-TV news piece yesterday....on the 'recovery' of ISIS in Germany.  They give various reasons for this, but the bottom line?  The experts told N-TV.....there's likely to be wave after wave of terror acts coming over the next year.

3.  Business report out there indicating a 2025 expansion plan of McDonalds in Germany....indicating several hundred new buildings to be established, and possibly up to 10,000 new employees.

I gazed over the story....mostly in disbelief.  Their focus seems to be getting more drive-in points established....where folks picked up food on their way to work, or on their way home.  

4.  Lot of political talk over the weekend about VW financial problems.  Some suggestion now that the EU should get involved and offer help in terms of Euro.

5.  Political chatter over the weekend by Chancellor Scholz.  He seems to believe that the SPD will confirm him as a candidate in the fall 2025 fed-election here in Germany, and that the public will get him the votes.

I give it....zero percent chance of the party re-confirming him.  

6.  Lindner, the Finance Minister (FDP)....gave a talk this weekend.  Two protest ladies stopped the talk....disrobing and going topless for their 'speech'. 

7.   CDU came out over the weekend with a plan to 'control' p0rn.  They want to create a p0rn-pass.  You would have to have a pass to enter any digital p0rn site.  In getting the pass, you'd have to establish your age.  

This working?  Well....VPNs would defeat the idea.  I would imagine teenagers would figure the way around this.  Then the 16-year old crowd would demand adult-status.....which I doubt that the CDU wants to give them.

Magazine and video p0rn to still exist?  Yeah.

I'm not sure this is a priority but the typical conservative voter will probably list it as a top-100 issue.  

8.  From WELT, Harold Martenstein wrote an interesting political piece for Sunday, if you can find a copy....worth reading.  Topic?  He points out three odd factors...the German CDU Party (right-of-center) ought to win the next election.....they will likely be forced to partner in some way with the BSW Party.....and that the BSW Party is in some ways similar to the AfD Party (far-right). 

Yeah, naturally, the CDU gov't (anticipating this)....would be handcuffed in a way to left-wing agendas.....something that Merkel vowed a dozen years ago...would not happen with the party.

I'll just say this....as the CDU does partner-up with BSW....I see a fair  number of German conservative voters being disgruntled after a year or two, and likely exiting the door to a more right-wing type party.  Come the 2029 fed-election...it's possible that the AfD Party picks up 3-to-4 points over their 2025 results...over this disgruntled crowd.

9. Interesting N-TV news piece this AM.....over 140 German villages (of size)....don't have a post office.  Reason?   These are usually 'contracted-out' to tobacco shops, lotto shops, or corner grocery shops.  Well....in these 140 villages....no commercial operation has applied for the contract (either they don't want the trouble, or it doesn't pay enough for the hassle).

In my village, for over 20 years, it's been run by the stationary/school supply shop/lotto shop.  

10.  ZDF (public TV, Channel 2) is based out of the Mainz area.  Yesterday....they were attempt to run a live music show ('Fernsehgarten').  Massive storm came up at the last minute, and the crowd was dismissed (it is typically a outdoor operation).  They found some empty studio, and ran the show from there.

8 Sep 2024: Six German News Stories

 1.  Another stabbing, Karlsruhe train-station....Friday evening.  Standing on one of the platforms....32-year old guy got stabbed.  Culprit made it away.

2.  Up in the state of NRW (NW Germany).....a company was given the contract to shut-down a nuke plant (billions paid to them).  Well....company went bankrupt.  Dissolved now.

Gov't says they will have to step in and re-fund the shut-down themselves....at least a couple billion would have to be generated out of thin-air.

3.  This odd partnership between BMW and Toyota.....to build hydrogen-powered cars?  Well....it came out this past week, and might have serious implications, but it's a decade away.

Meanwhile,  I'll just say when the topic comes up with middle-class/working-class Germans, there's minimum enthusiasm for E-cars.  I'd say presently.....ONLY around one out of five Germans seem willing to go the E-car route.

Harsh reality of hydrogen cars?  Well.....in my circle of 20 miles around Wiesbaden....I know of ONLY ONE single fueling station (was made for hydrogen-buses originally).  

Even if you came up with a 40k Euro hydrogen vehicle....it'd take 15 years minimum to get stations set up and geared to fuel-up H-cars.  Course, the selling point is that you'd probably only require seven minutes to fuel up a H-car.  

4.  Hessen (the state) is saying now....a thinking process to help save VW is going on....to save jobs.  Wouldn't shock me if the state found half-a-billion to funnel into some zero-percent loan deal.

5.  Odd brawl....2:30 AM Saturday morning....two 'gangs' met up in the area of a Breitenbach am Herzberg (Hersfeld-Rotenburg) 'fair' (here in Hessen).

At least six folks arrested....one guy sent to a hospital. 

Yes, knives were involved.  Police still investigating.

6.  For a couple of hours Saturday...railway traffic was halted in central Germany....radio disruption was blamed.

German Fashion Trend

 In the past two weeks....Hessen state summer vacation....for schools....ended.  The kids are back in school.

So as kids come back in....you start to notice two obvious German youth fashion trends that have developed over the summer.

Back around 12 years ago....Goth existed in teen fashion.  Even in the city of Wiesbaden....we had one attire shop which specialized (at the time) in Goth.  Then it mostly up and disappeared over one single year.  

Well....walking around in the past two weeks....it seems like Goth is now making a comeback.  I've probably noticed forty German juveniles in the city of Wiesbaden dressed up in Goth.

The second trend?  Japanese Anime-style.  The blue hair, the green hair, and the dress/attire....set to what you'd notice in Tokyo.  Just yesterday, I probably counted at least twenty kids dressed in the style.

Two odd trends?  Well....fashion among teens has to constantly evolve (it can remain the same).  It's just odd how the green/blue hair thing comes into style.

7 Sep 2024: Three German News Stories

 1.  Grocery operation Edeka...says it will lessen the deli-meat-counter personnel in their operations...mostly over two reasons: meat consumption overall is lessening, and skilled labor shortage.  

My local Edeka (at least in mid-afternoon shifts) still has four people on the deli counter.  But they also handle the cheese counter as well.

2.  Linke Party observing the VW car mess...says that stock-holders should prepare to pay back dividends....to cover the cost instead of a austerity program for VW.  

If this were to be the plan....VW stock would drop like a rock.

3.  If you were a drinker of the German discount soda 'River-Cola'....you might want to stock up while you can.  The operation is going to halt production....not enough profit.  The only place you could ever buy it....was the Aldi grocery chain.

This Migration Solution Using the Rwanda Idea?

 Well....if you remember for the past five years....the Brits attempted (via the Tory gov't) to create a path for failed migrants to exit the UK....going to Rwanda.  You'd get an apartment....some limited start-up money, and never come back.  Once the courts read everything.....they said 'NO'. 

This week, it came up in Germany....they are examining the Rwanda deal.  This mostly comes out of the FDP Party circles.

How it'd work?  Unknown.  I'm guessing the Germans would pay a entry fee to Rwanda....probably 10,000 Euro minimum.   You'd probably have a choice....go to your original homeland, or go to Rwanda.  

Court issues here?  Yeah...it'll be challenged. 

After pondering over this....I think it's about 90-percent BS, and mostly there to stir the pot on conversation.  There are still over 50,000 on the deportation list, and I think both the CDU and SPD are desperate now....trying to take AfD down a step or two....that they'd engage on a number of crazy ideas. 

5 Sep 2024: Eleven German News Stories

 1.  IFO spoke up and said Germany....at least until 2026....is in stagnation.  Cause?  Poor orders, no new investment money, and consumers have lowered 'consumption'.

Would imagine it'll be a top 3 discussion for fed-election in 2025.

2.  Heated talk going on in the Bundestag....with the CDU 'boss' (Merz) giving the SPD a deadline to rig up a fix on migrants (Tuesday).  It looks like there's finally going to be a limit created.  How this works?  Unknown.

3.  From Wed...FC Schalke 04 had a 'friendly' match with a regional Dutch team (NAC Breda).  

Well...things went south after the game....with 300-odd fans from the two groups attacking each other.  Football fan all-out brawls are pretty rare these days.  Local cops are saying.....there's going to be consequences with the folks arrested.

4.  Oasis has announced two MORE concerts in 2025.  Lot of hyped-up Brits over the 'comeback' of the rock band.

5. I watched a regional (HR) talk yesterday...on the business spiral for pharmacy operations in Germany.  On average....one pharmacy every single day...is shutting own (due to lack of profit).

6.  That shooter in Munich?  18-year old Austrian, radicalized Muslim.  

7.  German teacher's association says things are rough in schools, and they want 'security'.  Not sure how they mean this.....sounds like they want actual police within the building.  

Manpower for this?  NO.  Could they hire folks?  Pretty sure there are a number of retirees with military background, but you'd just stir up more problems.

8.  Putin 'says' he wants to put support behind Kamala Harris.  Odd statement and there are various ways you might interpret the support.  

9.  Saxony CDU 'boss' says after the election...a minority coalition situation is 'not an option'.  One way or another....they will partner with BSW. 

10.  This morning, a guy walked into the Koblenz police station, with a machete....waving it around.  Threat was to kill policemen.  Cops kept him cornered....used a taser on him....then arrested the guy.  Guy identified as a Albanian.  Just based on description of the incident....this being 2:30 AM....I'd say he was drugged-up or drunk.

11.  Starting to be conversation videos....where VW employees kinda admit....even 12 months ago, there were signs of economic collapse going on with the car-maker. 

AM Attack in Munich?

 What the police say.....this AM...(anniversary of the 1972 Olympic attack)...some 'guy' exchanged gunfire near the Israeli Consulate General. 

All the cops say is this guy fired a few rounds, and the security folks there fired some rounds....in the end, the guy was shot dead.

No ID.  No motivation angle.  

No one else wounded or killed in the episode.

German Elections, Mail-In Ballots, and the AfD Party 'Complaint'

 First, a rare thing....there's at least three or four investigations being conducted by the German police over ballot 'woes' from the past weekend in Saxony and Thuringia.  

If you asked me on the numbers of problem-ballots...based on the news stories told...I'd say it's between 300 and 400.  I should state here...there are various ways that they seem suspicious.  They may all be legit...but just having some element of suggesting a problem.

Fair number of them being mail-in ballots?  Yes.

Germany allows a mail-in situation, but there are some general rules.  You are supposed to present yourself at the county/city office and say that you will be gone that Sunday, or on some vacation, or in a hospital.  They issue you a ballot, and you fill it in at home....then post it at the local mail-box.

Absentee ballots started in 1957 in Germany, and in the past decade....has been rather popular (2021 election....47-percent of voters went and picked up a ballot).

So in today's news....it came out that the AfD Party (the  right-wing folks) feel that something illegal is going on, and against them.  Proof?  No.  Their intent?  I would imagine they want the absentee ballot restricted in some way.     

The only suspicious thing I've noticed?  A lot of retirement homes have 'helpers' who help retirees to fill out the ballots.  It's possible that 'help' might be corrupted in some way.  Proof of this?  No.  

All of this conversation drawing negative conversation?  Well....yeah, that is the trend I see.

A higher rate of Germans voting in the two states?  Yeah, I noticed that trend....going from the mid-60 percentage range....to the mid-70 range.

As for convincing folks it's a 4-star problem?   That has yet to occur.  

Just An Odd Thing I've Noticed

 Since the election in the UK (back in early July)....I've come to notice an odd thing.

I browse a bit on social media....across various sites.  And I've come to notice almost daily....some Brit asking questions over jobs, relocating, and how life might work beyond the Isle.

I'm not saying huge numbers....just that almost every day.....I'll notice five to ten folks.  The odd thing....prior to the election...I might have noticed one or two a year.

I don't converse with them or ask questions.  I just assume that these are people who see some type of exit-path required and are taking the initial steps in leaving.  

I looked up the numbers for 2023.  202,000 EU people living in the UK.....left.  For Brits-only?  Around 98,000 said 'adios' and left.

From my social media observations?  Well....I can't readily tell if the people talking of leaving are 'pure' Brit, or some EU person who has had 'enough'.

A trend to worry about?  Well....I'm pretty sure if the 98k were to escalate to 130k.....it wouldn't really worry folks about exiting people.  If 300,000 Brits in 2025 were to leave?  Yeah, that would start to worry the bean-counters and taxation people.

Disgruntled people?  No one tells their personal feelings....they just ask....what  does it take to get working-papers for Germany, or can you do a immigration request to Australia.  

I admit....it'd be interesting to have a couple of these folks at a round-table, and just let them share their feelings.

All of this leading back to some failure of BREXIT?  Well....I might say 50-percent of this is a woeful tale of BREXIT, with incompetent leadership.  Some of this is simply poor Tory strategies for the economy. 

Bottom line?  You really don't want a status for your country as a place where folks are excited to leave.  

Oasis Story

 This is an amusing story.

Back in the early 1990s....this rock-band formed in Birmingham, England.  Name of the group?  Oasis.  You may have heard of them.

Two years into their 'adventure'....a record label signed them up, and they put out their first record.

It's safe to say from 1993 to 1999....they were on the fast-lane....widely known, and mostly in disagreement about their music.  In 1999....two of the original members of the group got stressed-out and  left.

As the next decade went on....more members came and went.  What remained were the two brothers...Liam and Noel, and a replacement group.

Around 2009, various issues came up and trying to get Liam and Noel to be functional....were lost.  The band dissolved.

In the past month....Liam and Noel have found some path to regroup, and have concerts. 

So the ticket process opened up.....tickets sold out (mostly to people who are 35 to 60).  Yeah, tickets sold out.....then they popped up on various outlets....priced at a hefty profit.

Yesterday morning....it came out that the British authorities are disturbed by the profit business with the band's tickets.

Not  to be outdone.....the EU stood up yesterday and said they need to be in the middle of this....so there will be some kind of EU commission investigation (yeah, we really need that going on).

Regulations likely to come out of this crap?  Yeah.  

But here's the thing....if you start messing with concert tickets....won't you open up a can of worms?  Why would you price X-band tickets at 120 Euro?  Isn't pro-soccer in the same  discussion?  Why should I pay 40 Euro for a soccer game?  

All of this political hype....occurring over a stupid re-grouping of Oasis?  Yeah, that's the amazing part of the story.

5 Sep 2024: 6 German News Stories

 1.  This VW spiral?  This is now the top developing story in Germany.  

From the prospective of the Union and workers...disaster.  They want answers, and this BS about closing down plants is going 'turbo'.

The gov't?  So far, it's just a discussion.  To help VW?  Financially, it's in the 5-billion Euro range.  My humble view is that the gov't could rig up a interest-free loan...whether it meets the 5-billion or even half that amount....is the question.  

The fact that the board of VW is not stable?  Well....that makes for a more interesting development.

2.  Chatter of the FDP Party being on a 'death-bed'?  This goes to the idea that in the fall 2025 fed-election....the party might not get 5-percent or more of the vote.....thus losing all seats in the Bundestag.  

3.  There's political chatter on tobacco bans.  So the talk goes to 2 issues: (1) banning of 'flavored' vape E-cigarettes', and (2) banning of cigarettes' at kiosks and gas stations.  

What's left if they did the bans?  Mostly buying smokes at grocery stores, tobacco shops, and the machines at restaurants/pubs.  

4.  AfD Party has seats in the NRW state assembly.  They went asking about 'gang-rapes' in the state, demanding information.  Well....the police delivered and the bulk of the reported gang-rapes leads you to a migration-issue.  I don't think the state expected this fall-out.

5.  There's pressure building in German eastern states....onto the CDU Party.  Voters want the party to exit the public TV broadcasting treaty.  In simple terms, these voters are suggesting that public TV (ARD/ZDF) don't represent their views of Germany or the world.  

Whether the CDU parties within individual states go this far?  Unknown.

If you asked most Germans about supporting the monthly TV tax.....it's a generation thing.  Older Germans still think public TV  is needed.  Younger Germans think the tax is out-of-whack and they don't use public TV or public radio.

6. There was a public talk by the Chancellor yesterday.  Number of hard criticisms leveled at Scholz and the coalition by members of the audience.  There's no doubt a majority of Germans now want a early election.  

Election Fraud Chatter

So, there's some added investigation going on in Thuringa and Saxony now.

Dresden area?  Suggestion of manipulated ballots.

Saxony? Police looking at  130 manipulated ballots.

Radeberg area? Police have in their possession....14 faked-up ballots (2 different stations).

Added to the Dresden investigation?  Well....17 ballots that seem to have been marked in one way.....later changed to another way. All of these ended being marked for the Free Saxony Party (fair far-right wing group). 

Yeah, it's a bit odd to have this much manipulation and police efforts.  

Political Chatter

 I sat and watched a N-TV segment this AM on a delicate German topic.....how the CDU/CSU Party might partner-up for a coalition situation with the BSW Party.

So the summary goes this way....the CDU/CSU folks can't work deals with the Linke Party or the AfD Party....this is apparently written in stone.

Some folks on the far conservative side of the CDU/CSU Party....now indicate the same problems exist with BSW.

Who is the BSW?  It's a newly created party....coming in the past two years. The  Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance – Reason and Justice (BSW).  Yeah, it belongs to Sahra Wagenknecht....former big player of the Linke Party.

About four years ago....you could tell that Wagenknecht was being pushed aside in the Linke Party....so she decided to exit, and make up her own party.

Ideology?  Left-wing populism to some degree....with elements of nationalism. Absolutely grounded to Socialism.  Showing some element of Euroscepticism.

Yeah....they aren't really a right-wing or neutral party.

Pro-Russia?  I'd say they've taken various positions of not supporting Ukraine, and that ending the war is a priority.

This element of the CDU/CSU parties....having a point?  I'd take a guess that among the CSU members....more than half won't sign off on a partnership....at the national level.  Course, that's a Bavarian attitude.  Among the CDU folks....it's probably a 20-percent level where folks have a problem  in accepting this type of partnership.

Are we coming to a point in German national politics where building a coalition is near impossible?  Well....lets go to a scenario where the AfD gets near 20-percent in a national election, and the BSW Party also gets near 20-percent.  This would lead a CDU-CSU Party to only partner-up with the SPD and Greens.   It's not a terrible deal...but when you write 'promises' to make the partnership work....you end up diluting a lot of what you told voters.  

If There Were a German Federal Election Today (Instead of Fall 2025)?

 Well....if you use the latest INSA poll....CDU-CSU would win (in the 31-percent range).

2nd place?  It'd go to AfD...around 19-percent.

SPD would be near 15-percent, with the Greens near 11-percent.

BSW?  Around 9.5-percent.

FDP?  They would fail to reach the 5-percent point....thus getting zero seats.

Linke?  Same story.....fail to reach 5-percent.

So you'd sit and ask....coalition-wise....where does the CDU-CSU situation go?  Well...since they can't partner with AfD....you are left with only two options.

Option 1: CDU-CSU, with BSW and SPD.

Option 2: CDU-CSU, with SPD and Greens.

All of this assumes that  the  Greens don't falter over the next 12 months....that BSW continues it's trend upward, and that AfD doesn't get 3-to-5 points higher.  It also assumes that the FDP doesn't repair it's problems and doesn't get back to the 5-percent point.

This Thuringia Election Fraud Chatter

Well....folks felt sure the fraud stuff was over yesterday, but it appears that a investigation has to start up.

This came up during the counting of votes on Sunday evening.

Best I can describe this?  In one district of Dresden....folks were filling out ballots (paper-type) in an extremely professional manner.  This leaves the counting folks puzzled....like this was already filled out ahead of time.

The idea that other districts may have the issue?  This started today.

The idea that the CDU candidate benefited?  Well....yeah, there is that issue.

Some of this chatter revolving around two retirement homes (older voters)?  Yeah.

The idea that fifty-to-eighty odd votes in some district might be 'created' at the retirement homes?  This is generally what is driving the chatter.

I'll say this....generally....Germans don't walk into a voting booth with a ruler and do straight-line drawing on the ballot, which is what they are talking about here....with absentee paper ballots.

So this fraud chatter might be about a couple of nursing home folks...helping the retirees vote?  More or less....yes.

If the vote is figured out fraudulent?  It might be enough to flip one seat over to the AfD, but you'd have to dig deep into this to resolve the stuff.

Know Any Good Tunes?

So I'm going to tell a BS story, which existed until the last week or so.

In recent months (going back into 2023)....things were hyped up in urban areas of Germany, with folks fearing knife assaults.  

It's a honest feeling, and people are worried.  

So the Berlin police got a bit of advice (over a year ago)....it's not advice developed by themselves or some security guy....it came from a professional-association for psychiatry (consider it a suggestion of theirs).

The advice?  If you were standing there in some public place and some nutcase launches a knife assault....they (not the police's idea) said you should 'irritate the aggressive guy through unexpected behavior.....such as singing'.

The police took this tip, and put on their home-page as advice.  My gut-feeling....the older police probably were shaking their heads and suggesting this is a BS idea.

So for a long time....this was up on the page, and in the past week or two....finally removed.

My humble view?  Generally, in dealing with nut-cases.....as irrational as they are....they will react in some way to another nut-case or irrational person.  I'm not saying it's a positive move, or that it lessens the mess you are viewing.   But added to this 'moment'......if the aggressive person is on some drugged-up high....none of this irrational idea stuff or singing....really matters.  You can sing 'Louie Louie' or 'Wannabe' (by Spice Girls), and it's not likely to resolve a drugged-up guy.  

But here's the thing....there's probably a couple thousand Germans who read this stupid advice in 2023....memorized it to some degree....and even now....as the knife-nut approaches....they will  launch into 'Cherie Cherie Lady' by Modern Talking....thinking it might save them.

Yeah, it's a weird world we live in.

Six Questions

 1.  How much money does VW need to 'save' itself....based on the chatter of the past 24 hours?

Well....the rumor talk is 5-billion Euro to dig VW out of the pit.  But with this.....since the board is mostly resigned, you'd have to draft some new people, rig up a union deal that isn't very pleasant, and start to think about the gas/diesel car business in a different way.

2.  Does the SPD-coalition have 5-billion Euro to 'give' VW?

HA....that's a BS question.  Lindner, the Finance Minister, will tell you hell-no.  However, if you said this is the collapse of VW in slow motion....that you have to do something....they will invent 2 or 3 billion Euro for 2025/2026 and arrange a loan for the rest.  

3.  Does the VW collapse lead to serious mess across all of Germany?

It's a trigger....meaning there are dozens of medium-sized companies in serious jeopardy at present, and banks getting tight with money....would harm them as well.

4.  Does the state need to dump ownership of 20-percent of VW's shares?

Well....just about everyone will say yes.  Who would buy the shares?  No one can show that kind of interest.  Even  China doesn't have the money to buy into this (four years ago...yes, they would obviously make a deal).

5.  Doesn't a lot of this spiral lead back to Merkel's 'end' to gas/diesel cars?

Yeah, with China making the quality E-cars for 30-percent less than VW can.  If you dumped the ban on gas/diesel?  Well....that would reset the stage, but who is willing to dump the ban?

6.  Could Germany survive without VW?  

It's an unanswerable problem.  The question really ought to be.....where can you find 5-billion Euro?