The Cake Episode

The party boss of the Linke Party in Germany is Sahra Wagenknecht.  If you've ever spent some time watching chat forums.....she's one of the more clever and responsive political minds in Germany....sadly, she's left-wing (to the extreme).

Last night, the Linke Party started a weekend party meeting and in the midst of things.....some left-wing radicals came up near Wagenknecht and popped a cake in her face.  Pictures taken and she's kinda peeved about the matter.

You see....of the top five folks associated with the Linke Party, she's the only one for the past six months who has chatted about immigration and said that the current SPD-CDU program, Merkel's vision, is a failure and there needs to be fewer immigrants entering the country.

The issue is.....the current Linke Party position on immigration is that all people have the right to enter Germany, while they agree that the Merkel program under the CDU and SPD has been a failure.  Beyond that.....they say mostly nothing about how to fix this other than pushing more money into it and correcting the shelter discrepancies.

The party in the past week has even gone to the extent of a statement which says that they support immigration and can't understand why they are losing votes in the state elections of the past six months.  Obliviously.....as they say.....people just aren't getting the message and understanding what the message is about.  Wagenknecht looks at the message and you can tell....she's just not charged up about it or thinking it'll ever work.  Immigration is hurting the working class German guy....with no doubt.

What might happen after this cake-episode weekend?

There are two state elections in the fall in eastern Germany.  Normally, in Berlin....for state polling from last time.....the Linke Party ought to clear 11.6 percent.  In Meckinburg, the Linke Party polled 18.4 percent.  At the very least....they ought to get the same votes as last time (2011).  Frankly, I'm not of the opinion that they will have that much success....mostly because of the immigration and asylum business.

For Meckenburg, they likely will go from 18.4 percent (2011) to 9-percent (losing half of their support).  For Berlin, I think the 11.6 percent of 2011....will drop to around seven to nine percent.

Wagenknecht might look at things, the polling ahead and just quietly say that the Linke Party with it's attachment to immigration will not survive well in the federal race of 2017.  I kinda anticipate by December that she will step away, quit and resign from the party.

Maybe I'm wrong on this but a month later.....I think she will show up in the Saarland and team with the local AfD Party to go after a major voting win in March (their state election).  The Linke Party did well in 2012 in the Saarland, with 16-percent.  With the immigration trend, and Wagenknecht as the PR front for AfD?  I think they could easily take 25-percent, and the Linke Party suffer a massive loss of vote (maybe half as many as in 2012).

At that point, you really have to wonder about the two other German state elections in 2017, and how the Linke Party might be walking toward a 4.9-percent national win....which means they won't be part of the Bundestag (if they don't clear 5.0 percent nationally).

If you reshuffled the deck in the 2017 national election, and suddenly the Linke Party was not a significant player....you really start to see a totally different election.  It's possible to see a 25-to-30 percent win for AfD....maybe not enough to be the clear-cut winner but it really puts a tough coalition situation in place for the CDU.

So, maybe the cake in the face of Wagenknecht might reset the deck in some ways.  The Linke Party doesn't really represent the working class guy anymore.  It's almost a Green Party-Lite type organization that pretends to be extremely socialist and pro-worker.  If you were to dig up the common member of the group from the 1990s....he'd probably say that they don't represent him anymore and he doesn't really know who they represent.