Q-and-A

 1.  All that German chatter last week....if you were from age 18 to 45 and German male.....needing 'permission' to be outside of Germany for 90-plus days....suddenly quiet?

Well....yeah, the chief of the Bundeswehr (German Army)....wrote a waiver and said it's NOT in effect.  I should mention here....he's SPD, and the number one candidate for the 2029 Chancellor election.  

2.  Gas prices dropping?

Today, around noon....it's expected to be near 2.05-to-2.07 in most places....very dramatic drop.  As long as peace talks continue in Pakistan with the US/Iran....it'll go this way.  By Sunday....I'd tank up....believing this peace-game won't last.

3.  Germans getting a lot of BS on the war?

I'd say from the Iranians...yeah, there's a campaign of misinformation going on, and journalists are trying to get a message out that the normal sources at the Pentagon....won't talk to them.

4.  How much has Germany made off pumped-up gas-tax revenues in the past month?

Well....the calculation that I saw on Focus....says half-a-billion Euro.  The Finance Ministry is fairly 'gleeful' but hoping folks don't ask questions.  If this were to go on for another 4 to 6 weeks?  I'd guess it hits 1-to-1.5 billion extra Euro.

5. 'Blood-rain' coming?

It's a odd weather development....there's a African dust-storm believed to arrive around Saturday night....with a rainy front from the Atlantic.   So if you live in Germany....you will notice some odd reddish coating on your car by Monday.

6. FDP Party has new leadership.....threatening the CDU in  some ways?

It's an odd 'play'.   Kubicki is the new party boss of the FDP, and the normal voters  of the party (center-center group.....anti-tax is their general offering)....has Merz and the CDU worried.  The typical guy who'd vote for FDP....is probably a CDU voter.  

Presently, the FDP is polling 4-percent.  I might project in 6 months....them being near 7-percent, but taking the 3 points from the CDU or CSU (marginally holding at 25-percent....2 points down from AfD). 

8.  Trump talking NATO base closings?

Yeah....he can't  quit NATO (Senate has to approve)....but he can shift troops around. 

My closure guesses?  Moron and Rota (Spain) are likely closed.  Spangdahlem is likely on a shift deal (I'm betting they get moved to Poland).  Lakenheath and Mildenhall are on my 50-50 list....likely being discussed.  

Army-wise?  You might see most of the Army in Germany on a 2-to-3 year removal list....maybe going to the Pacific theater. 

I'm also likely to believe that nuke assets will be removed out of Europe and Trump saying Putin is not a threat to security.

9.  Iran-US peace talks?

Hot in the news this AM....extra-hard anti-US Iranians leaders....saying 'it-ain't-right' to talk up peace against the moderate Iranian leadership.  So  I'm of the mind...by Monday, this whole  thing is dissolved, and they go back to full-scale war.

Why Pakistan is so pro-peace?  Well....they took cash from UAE and Saudi Arabia....up around 8-to-10 billion dollars....to be a defense component for them, and they haven't shown any interest in getting involved in the war.  So the UAE and Saudi Arabia are saying....pay the money back.  If peace talks fail....Pakistan is financially screwed.

10. Significant banking crisis for Iran?

Oddly, no one talks much about it.

The last crisis (2008)....it was pretty bad for about 6 to 12 months.  Presently, it seems  worse.

This current crisis for Iran involves clear indicators of banking sector distress: at least one major bank failure, multiple others at high risk of collapse, widespread liquidity and insolvency problems, service disruptions, and heavy government intervention through money printing and forced mergers. 

Some of this is recent....some are simply long-term problems that haven't been fixed/resolved...added with U.S./international sanctions, corruption, mismanagement, non-performing loans (NPLs), and fiscal dominance by the state, and have been worsened by recent conflict.

The 'big' bank....Ayandeh Bank....large private lender tied to regime-connected figures.....got into failure issues with nearly $5 billion in losses.  Mostly came from bad loans, self-lending to insiders/cronies, and  Ponzi-like practices (offering high interest rates while relying on inflationary money printing).  They only got saved by being force into a merger into the state-owned Bank Melli. I should add here....based on the end-result....the government had to print new-and-fresh money to cover losses.

Added to the mess....since 'war' started....major state banks like Bank Melli and Bank Sepah have suspended services.  Cause?  Well....those Israeli and American folks were conducting cyberattacks.   Then they were both bombing key structures  of the banks.  Naturally.....bank accounts were apparently frozen for many customers.  I should note this....it's not just the typical customer affected....but the upper-level gov't bosses...stuck with no cash flow as well.

The mullahs may think the country can run for weeks without cash flow....but reality is something totally different.