Tuesday, October 25, 2016

The Rest of the Story Over Population Decreases

Some folks over here in Mainz, with the Fraunhofer Institute have done a research project and come to a suggested conclusion.

They looked at the population expected by 2030....expected to drop to the range of roughly 5 to 10 million (probably in the range of 70-million instead of the present 82-million).

Here's the thing, less people equal less taxation collected and less sales tax.  You can do the math.  They figure....at the very minimum....it's one-percent to five-percent lost on what the government needs to function and carry out it's "services".

So, when you start sit back and ponder upon this.....there are some additional conclusions that one might reach.

1.  Less tax revenue means less money coming to individual states and cities.  So less roads are renovated or repaved.  At some point, a district might decide that such-and-such road that currently exists.....can't be maintained between village X and Y....or if the road is allowed to stay....it won't be in any shape for a car to drive fifty or sixty kilometers in speed.  Bridges?  This will become a major problem in how you schedule bridge replacement or renovation.....with less money available.

2.  Airport operations.  If you look around Germany, there's no doubt that Frankfurt, Berlin, Stuttgart, Munich, Koln and Hamburg will continue.  The rest of the airports?  I would question how the states and airport companies make these function with fewer people.

3.  Fewer hospitals.  At some point, there will be a review and a consolidation of medical services.....probably starting by 2026.  In rural areas, fewer hospitals.  In urbanized areas, the number will stay the same.

4.  University operations.  Germany might keep all of its universities operating, but only by accepting a lot more students from outside of the country and making these students pay a decent tuition (figure 12,000 Euro a year).

5. State-run TV.  Fewer citizens?  Lesser TV taxes paid.  Less revenue to run the collection of networks existing now.  There's a cut coming one way or another to state-run TV, whether they realize it or not.

6.  Railway travel.  Less people.....less options.  Urbanized areas might be able to keep their number of trips at the same level.  Towns sitting fifty kilometers outside of the urban zones?  They might have 15 trains come through today, but by 2030....it'll probably be eight to ten at the most.

7.  Doctors and clinics in rural areas will generally decrease in number and you can expect a 30 to 60 minute drive in the future to find general services.

8.  Farming villages with a population of 500 people today?  They will see declines and probably just have around 200 people by 2030 (my humble guess).

9.  Beer production?  Less people.....less beer consumed.  It only makes sense.

10.  Farm production?  I would suggest that mega-sized operations will become the norm with most farmers farming twice as many acres as they do presently, but fewer farmers existing.

There's a bold new world coming to Germany in roughly twenty years unless something starts to occur with the population.

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