Sunday, October 30, 2016

The 'Three Amigos' Political Strategy

Meetings still continue between the three odd political parties.....the SPD, the Linke Party and the Greens.

Someone set into motion a campaign strategy that it would be a unified front by the three partners for the 2017 national election.  In some ways, there's a belief that even for the three state elections in the spring of 2017.....this trio-strategy might help.

There's never been an episode where German political parties banded together and tried to influence an it's hard to say where this will go.

The problems?

1.  If you went to a hundred SPD members and suggested that they would partner up with the Linke Party (the former Communist Party of DDR in reality).....roughly a quarter (my estimation) of that group would have serious problems in voting with the SPD.  Even if they'd been solid 30-year voters and supporters of the SPD.....this would trigger serious acceptance problems.   Who would this group go to and support in this case?  It'd typically be the Greens, but the Greens are part of this agenda as well.  My only guess is the FDP might remain an option for this group of disgruntled voters.

2.  Oddly, all three of these parties were big supporters of asylum, immigration and migrants since 2014.  No one has said much but I would anticipate their stance to stay on the same trend.  They will refuse to allow the election to be about this topic, and try to force their agenda to be on something "else" (maybe anti-US, anti-Trump, pension reform, etc).  Generally, you get the impression that a number of SPD folks and Linke Party members have serious problems with immigration and asylum in Germany.  The Greens?  Much less so.  This group agenda might swing half-a-million voters away from the team effort, toward someone else (maybe AfD, maybe FDP).

3.  The potential for one single scandal to take down the whole trio strategy.  If we come to July of 2017 and in the heat of the election business....there's some major issue that pops up with one of the illegal money coming into the Linke Party, or some Green Party member caught in some serious in a major drug hurts all three of them at the ballot box.

4.  The final potential stumble?  If all three are so agreeable....why maintain three separate parties?  Eventually, some German will ask this question in a public forum and the moderator will quickly try to dismiss the idea, but it'll linger.  It is a curious question.  What really separates the three?  Thirty years ago, it would have been simple to divide the three in terms of political topics and agendas.  Today?  Half of their agendas are basically identical.  If you read their energy's basically the same.  The immigration policy?  Basically the same.  The minimum wage policy?  Basically the same.  Tax and redistribution policy?  Some basic differences but all three go in the same direction.

As much as they think this unification will help and forge an election win....I would probably be wondering if it hurts all three in some different ways.  The Linke Party took 8.6-percent in the last election.  Nationally, there is some thought that they are weaker this time around.....with some members having gone to the AfD.  If they got less than 5-percent?  They won't be allowed into the Bundestag.  This large investment of man-hours to get all three into better and positive numbers?  It might be all wasted.

So, I'm not really buying into this as a great idea.  But if you wanted a left-left-left government, well.....this is the only scenario to reach that point.  Oddly, while most of Europe is going right-wing.....would this left-left-left agenda be workable?  No.

No comments: