The word came up today, via a comment on one of my blogs from seven years ago.
It's a German word....besserwissrisch....typically means a 'know-it-all' or an individual who intends to correct you on a continual basis (a habit of some Germans, I will admit).
Around the US, you might bump into some folks act besserwissrisch on occasion. I noted in my youth on the farm, when certain folks would show up and let you know that you weren't on the right-track or doing it the proper way.
In Germany, one might go and take the view that you bump into someone like this every single day, and that a quarter of all Germans have this character-trait.
Among intellectual Germans.....it's probably higher than a quarter of the population. Sadly, an American in the middle of some brief conversation will typically take this advice-offered moment of the German intellectual.....as a besserwissrisch moment, and come away more negative than positive.
Getting a German to admit that they might have an habitual character trait like besserwissrisch? You'd have to go off to some rehab clinic or 'Kur' for treatment and they'd argue to the end that they were still correct about their opinion.
One of my routine German TV shows revolves around a political round-table, and you can see besserwissrisch being argued down to the ninth-degree, and the crowd applauding over the 'winner' in the end (Hart Aber Fair is the show).
The odd thing I see at work presently with the besserwissrisch crowd in Germany, is that they've all become very much pro-EU, and in some ways.....draining themselves of attachment to Germany itself. Yet at the EU level, they are now confronted by various cultures from around Europe (like Hungary, Poland, and the UK).....which just aren't of the same belief system or stance. Just to argue on immigration or migration, the besserwissrisch crowd is facing a pretty tough time now.
Inherent problems with the besserwissrisch crowd? Well....they hate to admit that Bill Gates was correct in suggesting a massive flow of IT engineers required in Germany in the 1990s. They also hate to admit that Goggle was a decade ahead of Germans on the process of searching. Facebook? The German concept or alternate to Facebook was basically two years late, and never took off. There are hundreds of occurrences that make the besserwissrisch crowd sit around at night in a fit of frustration. Hillary Clinton? She was the answer for the besserwissrisch crowd. Uncontrolled immigration was the original answer for the besserwissrisch crowd, then they found some way of getting wiser, and then realizing that maybe they'd screwed up a bit.
The thing is....besserwissrisch is not going away. The best that you can do with confronting a besserwissrisch guy or gal....is just to give them a hug, and wish them the best in the world....then hand them a full liter of German beer. With enough alcohol.....they will eventually shut up.
Thursday, November 30, 2017
The End of the Doner?
If you ever spent any time in Germany....you've probably tried the doner as a lunch time fast-food item.
The doner kebab will be said of Turkish origins, but that's mostly false. It was originally developed in West Berlin by a Turk, and I suspect his intention was to reinvent the Greek gypros. It's basically cheaper meat (usually beef) cooked on a vertical rotisserie. You shave the meat off in strips....pile it into pita bread, stuff it with salad (typically tomato, lettuce, onions, chillis, and then add some 'mystery' sauce). Turks will argue day and night about the mystery sauce....each doing it a different way.
Then you come to this one last ingredient of the doner.....somewhere in the process, you will involve phosphate. Here, you have this division that has occurred. The health industry (the nutrition experts) will say this is BAD (real bad). The doner industry will say that this is the real item which adds taste to the doner.
Well....this comes up in the news today with the EU.
The Environment Committee of the EU wants to forbid the addition of phosphate in the kebab. Chief reason? Well, there's been documented research to show that the cardiovascular system is negatively affected.
Why was phosphate ever added into the process? This gets down to various tests conducted decades ago and people found that it binds water to the meat as it cooks. In other words, when you carve the doner off the spit....it won't be dry-tasting.
What happens after the forbidding of phosphate for doners? I'm guessing it'll take less than five years for the dish to disappear from menu options because folks get all upset about a dried-up cooked-up meat dish. Some folks will slip by....secretly using phosphate (calling it a different name probably), and some cops will get called out to investigate their doner action. Maybe some guy will find another chemical for the replacement of the phosphate, but my guess is that it'll also be considered bad for your health and be dumped upon very quickly.
Phosphate used in Coke? Well....yeah.. So, I'm only taking a guess here but the nutrition 'police' will go after them shortly and force Coke to dump the ingredient, and cause it to lose it's taste as well.
I would hate to suggest it, but I suspect in thirty years that most Europeans will be grumbling about the beverages and foods they have....with no real taste. As each year came, and the EU regulated more and more things....there will be consequences.
The doner kebab will be said of Turkish origins, but that's mostly false. It was originally developed in West Berlin by a Turk, and I suspect his intention was to reinvent the Greek gypros. It's basically cheaper meat (usually beef) cooked on a vertical rotisserie. You shave the meat off in strips....pile it into pita bread, stuff it with salad (typically tomato, lettuce, onions, chillis, and then add some 'mystery' sauce). Turks will argue day and night about the mystery sauce....each doing it a different way.
Then you come to this one last ingredient of the doner.....somewhere in the process, you will involve phosphate. Here, you have this division that has occurred. The health industry (the nutrition experts) will say this is BAD (real bad). The doner industry will say that this is the real item which adds taste to the doner.
Well....this comes up in the news today with the EU.
The Environment Committee of the EU wants to forbid the addition of phosphate in the kebab. Chief reason? Well, there's been documented research to show that the cardiovascular system is negatively affected.
Why was phosphate ever added into the process? This gets down to various tests conducted decades ago and people found that it binds water to the meat as it cooks. In other words, when you carve the doner off the spit....it won't be dry-tasting.
What happens after the forbidding of phosphate for doners? I'm guessing it'll take less than five years for the dish to disappear from menu options because folks get all upset about a dried-up cooked-up meat dish. Some folks will slip by....secretly using phosphate (calling it a different name probably), and some cops will get called out to investigate their doner action. Maybe some guy will find another chemical for the replacement of the phosphate, but my guess is that it'll also be considered bad for your health and be dumped upon very quickly.
Phosphate used in Coke? Well....yeah.. So, I'm only taking a guess here but the nutrition 'police' will go after them shortly and force Coke to dump the ingredient, and cause it to lose it's taste as well.
I would hate to suggest it, but I suspect in thirty years that most Europeans will be grumbling about the beverages and foods they have....with no real taste. As each year came, and the EU regulated more and more things....there will be consequences.
Wednesday, November 29, 2017
The Charges Dropped Story
It's a page twenty story for the German press and you probably won't see any mention of this in the 8 PM news segment on the national German news.....but there's this interesting arrest warrant from 2016 that was thrown out by the Federal Court of Justice in Karlsruhe.
If you remember back in 2016, the German military got all peppy and arrested one of their folks for terror planning.
This all led around to some Lt who was in some way...a right-wing enthusiast, and very much anti-migrant.
At some point....Lt 'Franco' had even taken some time off, dressed up in immigrant clothing, and pretended to be new in Germany. The system? As broke as it was.....readily accepted him but for the translator folks (hired migrants themselves).....they didn't really buy his story.
The investigation led onto federal charges...preparation of 'state-damaging' violence was the wording. Well....the court basically said that while he did a number of stupid things...apparently, he didn't cross the border in terms of what the law requires for charges.
The prosecutor? I'm guessing he's standing there and a bit peeved. It wasn't a very strong case but after all that hype....national news carrying hours and hours of marginal news over the Lt and the poor leadership of the German Army....and the charges just drop?
If you remember back in 2016, the German military got all peppy and arrested one of their folks for terror planning.
This all led around to some Lt who was in some way...a right-wing enthusiast, and very much anti-migrant.
At some point....Lt 'Franco' had even taken some time off, dressed up in immigrant clothing, and pretended to be new in Germany. The system? As broke as it was.....readily accepted him but for the translator folks (hired migrants themselves).....they didn't really buy his story.
The investigation led onto federal charges...preparation of 'state-damaging' violence was the wording. Well....the court basically said that while he did a number of stupid things...apparently, he didn't cross the border in terms of what the law requires for charges.
The prosecutor? I'm guessing he's standing there and a bit peeved. It wasn't a very strong case but after all that hype....national news carrying hours and hours of marginal news over the Lt and the poor leadership of the German Army....and the charges just drop?
Berlin and Crime
It was a page two type story brought up by RBB (the public TV network of Berlin) today.
The local railway/subway organization of Berlin (BVG, Berliner Verkehrsbetriebe)....says they will now provide employees of their security service with bulletproof vests starting in 2018.
Additionally.....security batons are going to be issued out as well.
What's going on? Well....physical attacks onboard the Berlin subway system.
For 2016, there were 555 attacks noted against the BVG security folks. If you figure 260-odd total employees within the service.....it means in one single year, you will face at least two acts of violence.
Of the 555 attacks....at least sixty of these episodes meant the subway guy had to be excused from work for a minimum of three days.
If you count total attacks (against passengers and subway folks), for 2016, it's near 3,100 episodes. Roughly 350 of these were deemed robberies, and 84 were some type of sexual assault.
The subway system? That's where the bulk of the attacks took place.
In some ways, metropolitan areas of Germany (not just Berlin) have all fallen into a pattern of hyped-up crime. I won't say it's a migrant thing because it's been on a gradual increase for a number of years.
End of the story? My guess is that the BVG folks will have to up their security folks by 50-percent by the end of 2019. I'd also suggest that they start talking about tasers shortly for them as well.
A bold new world in Germany? Yeah.....in 1978, you would not have suggested this type of violence on public transport in Germany. On a typical Saturday night in Frankfurt, there was nothing to worry about. A lot of things have changed over the past forty-odd years.
The local railway/subway organization of Berlin (BVG, Berliner Verkehrsbetriebe)....says they will now provide employees of their security service with bulletproof vests starting in 2018.
Additionally.....security batons are going to be issued out as well.
What's going on? Well....physical attacks onboard the Berlin subway system.
For 2016, there were 555 attacks noted against the BVG security folks. If you figure 260-odd total employees within the service.....it means in one single year, you will face at least two acts of violence.
Of the 555 attacks....at least sixty of these episodes meant the subway guy had to be excused from work for a minimum of three days.
If you count total attacks (against passengers and subway folks), for 2016, it's near 3,100 episodes. Roughly 350 of these were deemed robberies, and 84 were some type of sexual assault.
The subway system? That's where the bulk of the attacks took place.
In some ways, metropolitan areas of Germany (not just Berlin) have all fallen into a pattern of hyped-up crime. I won't say it's a migrant thing because it's been on a gradual increase for a number of years.
End of the story? My guess is that the BVG folks will have to up their security folks by 50-percent by the end of 2019. I'd also suggest that they start talking about tasers shortly for them as well.
A bold new world in Germany? Yeah.....in 1978, you would not have suggested this type of violence on public transport in Germany. On a typical Saturday night in Frankfurt, there was nothing to worry about. A lot of things have changed over the past forty-odd years.
Tuesday, November 28, 2017
Diesel Cars and the Future in Germany
If you follow the diesel business in Germany.....there are now around 28 German cities contemplating a ban on diesel cars entering their city.
The effect on society?
It's typically around 50-percent of all German cars being diesel (at least by 2016 numbers)....that is often discussed. On diesel sales today? It's absolutely flat. No one has any interest in buying the dead-end technology.
None of these 28 urbanized communities will stand and explain how people who reside in their cities....will commute to work....or those who reside an hour away and need to arrive into their city. They have no desire to debate this part of the issue.
If you were to shift around and tell 150,000 drivers who need to enter Stuttgart to do their job that their vehicle is forbidden to enter....what happens next? No one....not the media, not the cities, or even the journalists themselves....have contemplated the mess that this is creating.
Imagine having an urban transport system like Stuttgart, and having just six months to create some vast parking enterprise on the outskirts of town where 150,000-odd vehicles would have to navigate into....park....and hours later leave from.
Imagine the congestion into these urban 'targets', where some mythical S-Bahn or U-Bahn would transport an extra 14,000 'Johans' over a two-hour period (from 7 AM to 9 AM)....on TOP of the already filled trains now.
Imagine the city having 25-percent of its work-force unable to show up at the right work time because of massive congestion and admitting six weeks into the 'damnation' of the diesel vehicle, that long-term....it might take five years for them to acquire enough train-cars to carry this number of passengers.
Imagine these diesel people refusing as well....to shop to any great extent within the twenty-eight zones. They would avoid furniture purchases, Christmas shopping, and probably even avoid using medical facilities because of the transportation hassle involved.
All of this leaves me in some curious state of wondering if these determined anti-diesel folks contemplate the real 'big' picture of what they desire, or if they are off on some tangent without a moment of worrying over consequences. If you dumped 25-percent of the typical shoppers in Frankfurt's shopping district....would they survive or would they just end up in two to three years dissolving a number of businesses because the urban mess this diesel solution triggered?
The big mess in Merkel's new coalition....if and when it arrives? The SPD used to be known as the party that represented the working-class of Germany. Now? With the working-class and their diesel cars under threat? One might suspect the SPD would just screw with them even more and make this a fairly miserable experience.
I don't see 2018 or 2019 as being any real positive year for diesel owners. Maybe Merkel and the brilliant genius group within this coalition will come to some decision to buy all the diesel cars....at blue-book value....and encourage a massive new car purchase period to make the diesel owners happy. But that would require literally billions and billion of Euro, and make the environmentalists all upset about the pay-out deal arranged.
The effect on society?
It's typically around 50-percent of all German cars being diesel (at least by 2016 numbers)....that is often discussed. On diesel sales today? It's absolutely flat. No one has any interest in buying the dead-end technology.
None of these 28 urbanized communities will stand and explain how people who reside in their cities....will commute to work....or those who reside an hour away and need to arrive into their city. They have no desire to debate this part of the issue.
If you were to shift around and tell 150,000 drivers who need to enter Stuttgart to do their job that their vehicle is forbidden to enter....what happens next? No one....not the media, not the cities, or even the journalists themselves....have contemplated the mess that this is creating.
Imagine having an urban transport system like Stuttgart, and having just six months to create some vast parking enterprise on the outskirts of town where 150,000-odd vehicles would have to navigate into....park....and hours later leave from.
Imagine the congestion into these urban 'targets', where some mythical S-Bahn or U-Bahn would transport an extra 14,000 'Johans' over a two-hour period (from 7 AM to 9 AM)....on TOP of the already filled trains now.
Imagine the city having 25-percent of its work-force unable to show up at the right work time because of massive congestion and admitting six weeks into the 'damnation' of the diesel vehicle, that long-term....it might take five years for them to acquire enough train-cars to carry this number of passengers.
Imagine these diesel people refusing as well....to shop to any great extent within the twenty-eight zones. They would avoid furniture purchases, Christmas shopping, and probably even avoid using medical facilities because of the transportation hassle involved.
All of this leaves me in some curious state of wondering if these determined anti-diesel folks contemplate the real 'big' picture of what they desire, or if they are off on some tangent without a moment of worrying over consequences. If you dumped 25-percent of the typical shoppers in Frankfurt's shopping district....would they survive or would they just end up in two to three years dissolving a number of businesses because the urban mess this diesel solution triggered?
The big mess in Merkel's new coalition....if and when it arrives? The SPD used to be known as the party that represented the working-class of Germany. Now? With the working-class and their diesel cars under threat? One might suspect the SPD would just screw with them even more and make this a fairly miserable experience.
I don't see 2018 or 2019 as being any real positive year for diesel owners. Maybe Merkel and the brilliant genius group within this coalition will come to some decision to buy all the diesel cars....at blue-book value....and encourage a massive new car purchase period to make the diesel owners happy. But that would require literally billions and billion of Euro, and make the environmentalists all upset about the pay-out deal arranged.
Glyphosate and Politics in Germany
If you watch the 8PM German nightly news (on ARD, Channel One), there's probably been at least twenty-five occasions over the past year when glyphosate made onto one of the topics of the 15-minute newscast.
Glyphosate? It was originally developed by a Swiss chemist in the 1950s....which went nowhere. Around a decade later, it got picked up and developed to some degree, and eventually became this 'bread and butter' broad-spectrum systemic herbicide and crop desiccant for Monsanto.
Use today? It's used to kill annual broadleaf weeds and grasses that grow among crops.
It's internationally used since the early 1970s. You might recognize the name....Roundup.
Here in Germany, it's been deemed a BAD thing over the past decade. I won't go into the volumes of info put out, but the environmental folks and a fair number of political folks have gone to the extent of attempting to rid Glyphosate out of not just Germany....but the EU itself. For the SPD folks, and their Minister of the Environment (Hendricks)....for four years, this has been some crusade-like episode.
Farmers? It's best not to bring up the topic with most farmers. If you were to rid the land of Glyphosate....then what replacement would exist? For the environmental folks, they'd typically grin at this point because you'd be forced to go in the bio direction and see some dramatic cutback in crop production because of weeds and grass.
Are the environmentalists correct in making Glyphosate a hated thing? It's hard to tell. I've seen various presentations and if their data were correct, then yes. But I tend to go back and look at the damage that environmentalists did with DDT in the 1960s, and that research wasn't exactly four-star. So I do kinda wonder if this is slanted research as well. A skeptic? Yeah.
Why bring any of this up?
Well....the EU was going to have a vote this week to dump Glyphosate. The Germans would have shown up....with the normal coalition and voted to dump it. Since the government is in a mess right now, and no real coalition existing....the CDU had the only vote that mattered.
So the CDU voted to keep Glyphosate around, and the EU had the votes to give five more years for Glyphosate to be used on EU farms.
Hostility? Oh man....that brought the Glyphosate topic onto the 8PM news and got them almost three minutes of time while the SPD and Green Party blasted away at the CDU.
They'd like to know if Merkel knew this strategy and the direction of the vote? Merkel says almost nothing on the topic now.
Hurting the coalition process? Well, it'll be raised over and over in the coalition-building process, and I think the top CDU folks will standing there and grinning at the SPD.
The number two of the SPD? Andrea Nahles? She gave a hefty blast at the CDU and got thirty seconds of news time last night to make the point.
For the coalition exercise? I'm guessing that the SPD will demand to consolidate the agricultural ministry and the environmental ministry into one job, and be a SPD person running it. The CDU likely expects this to happen, and will deduct another cabinet post from the SPD list. Just my humble guess.
As for Glyphosate? It'll be around for five more years....at least in the EU. The deadly nature of it? To continue to be debated. The thing is....if you go and remove this option for farmers, then do you see a lesser production rate? From the farmer perspective, they know their current numbers with Glyphosate. If they have to go forward without it....the lesser numbers matter in a serious way.
As for this failed moment of trust between the SPD and CDU? I think the CDU folks can accurately say that by taking this road of denying a coalition chance for weeks and weeks....the SPD was taking a big risk. The payback on this game is the Glyphosate moment.
Glyphosate? It was originally developed by a Swiss chemist in the 1950s....which went nowhere. Around a decade later, it got picked up and developed to some degree, and eventually became this 'bread and butter' broad-spectrum systemic herbicide and crop desiccant for Monsanto.
Use today? It's used to kill annual broadleaf weeds and grasses that grow among crops.
It's internationally used since the early 1970s. You might recognize the name....Roundup.
Here in Germany, it's been deemed a BAD thing over the past decade. I won't go into the volumes of info put out, but the environmental folks and a fair number of political folks have gone to the extent of attempting to rid Glyphosate out of not just Germany....but the EU itself. For the SPD folks, and their Minister of the Environment (Hendricks)....for four years, this has been some crusade-like episode.
Farmers? It's best not to bring up the topic with most farmers. If you were to rid the land of Glyphosate....then what replacement would exist? For the environmental folks, they'd typically grin at this point because you'd be forced to go in the bio direction and see some dramatic cutback in crop production because of weeds and grass.
Are the environmentalists correct in making Glyphosate a hated thing? It's hard to tell. I've seen various presentations and if their data were correct, then yes. But I tend to go back and look at the damage that environmentalists did with DDT in the 1960s, and that research wasn't exactly four-star. So I do kinda wonder if this is slanted research as well. A skeptic? Yeah.
Why bring any of this up?
Well....the EU was going to have a vote this week to dump Glyphosate. The Germans would have shown up....with the normal coalition and voted to dump it. Since the government is in a mess right now, and no real coalition existing....the CDU had the only vote that mattered.
So the CDU voted to keep Glyphosate around, and the EU had the votes to give five more years for Glyphosate to be used on EU farms.
Hostility? Oh man....that brought the Glyphosate topic onto the 8PM news and got them almost three minutes of time while the SPD and Green Party blasted away at the CDU.
They'd like to know if Merkel knew this strategy and the direction of the vote? Merkel says almost nothing on the topic now.
Hurting the coalition process? Well, it'll be raised over and over in the coalition-building process, and I think the top CDU folks will standing there and grinning at the SPD.
The number two of the SPD? Andrea Nahles? She gave a hefty blast at the CDU and got thirty seconds of news time last night to make the point.
For the coalition exercise? I'm guessing that the SPD will demand to consolidate the agricultural ministry and the environmental ministry into one job, and be a SPD person running it. The CDU likely expects this to happen, and will deduct another cabinet post from the SPD list. Just my humble guess.
As for Glyphosate? It'll be around for five more years....at least in the EU. The deadly nature of it? To continue to be debated. The thing is....if you go and remove this option for farmers, then do you see a lesser production rate? From the farmer perspective, they know their current numbers with Glyphosate. If they have to go forward without it....the lesser numbers matter in a serious way.
As for this failed moment of trust between the SPD and CDU? I think the CDU folks can accurately say that by taking this road of denying a coalition chance for weeks and weeks....the SPD was taking a big risk. The payback on this game is the Glyphosate moment.
Monday, November 27, 2017
Ten Observations over this German Election 'Mess'
Remember, I'm not a German, nor do I have any German view of the September election. I'm a guest and simply view it as an outsider.
1. It was the fewest number of votes for the CDU (Merkel's party) and the SPD....since the war. Combined, 53-percent of the vote. Disenchantment over the two significant parties? That's really a theme that you notice over the past couple of years. And here's the project problem for 2021 and 2025 (the likely two next German elections)....it's very likely that they will go below 50-percent, and might even have trouble reaching 45-percent in the 2025 election.
2. The "mutti-problem"? As much as Merkel, her chief supporters in the CDU, and the journalists hype her staying on and being Chancellor in this next government.....if you go and talk to working class people...they want a change. They aren't talking about getting Schulz from the SPD.....but just some kinda change. Merkel probably needs to retire, but the CDU just doesn't have someone with the public appeal to replace her.
3. The affect of this long dragged-out coalition-building mess on the EU? Merkel and the coalition (CDU-CSU-SPD) over the past four years have been an anchor for the EU and it's progress. You get the impression that some folks in the EU are a bit worried because they need this formulated group to carry them onto the next level. Also, they might be worried over the 2019 EU general election across Europe, if this gets any worse.
4. The idea of just giving up on this coalition effort, and having a second election? Oh boy....I think the CDU and SPD leadership woke up two weeks ago when the FDP walked out of the coalition talks, and the two parties realized that they have lost some voters. Journalists are careful how the polls are done and try to suggest that the FDP and AfD are the ones who lost supporters. I would suggest, across working-class German lines....maybe both the CDU and SPD parties lost two or three points off their September vote, and going back to another election.....is just NOT an option.
5. If you go back to March of last year (2016), there was this big moment when things could have created a new dynamic. The Pfalz state election came up, and everyone felt that the CDU candidate....Klockner....would win, and go on to be the natural 2017 Merkel replacement. Well...Klockner lost by half-a-percent. That 100,000 vote problem changed the whole dynamics of this election...denying the CDU a chance to get a fresh face into the national election. Klockner had the appeal for a brief while.....to replace Merkel.
6. The one odd feature of the campaign period....was almost no real discussion over migration and immigration. Well, when they got into the coalition-building talks (CDU-CSU, Greens and FDP)....there's this problem because the Greens want to rig the door to be open and to have a significant path for people to enter. The FDP wanted a door that closed, and there had to be limits. It was obvious that this would never work for a coalition, because neither were going to give up on their situation. Under this new dynamic of the CDU-CSU and SPD parties forming the next coalition? There will be some open-door situation. As much as it alienates working-class Germans who might vote for either of the parties....the leadership of the two parties don't care. It's simply giving a chance for the AfD to survive on and probably take another two percent in the next election.
7. Schulz. For the SPD, he is a pro-EU guy and hypes the EU in almost every fourth-sentence that he delivers publicly. Beyond that, there's just not much in Schulz that attracts working-class Germans (my humble opinion). My guess is that he will remain around and be part of the cabinet in the new Merkel government (vice-Chancellor probably), and try to be the big-cog in the 2021 election. But I don't see the SPD getting more than 20-percent in the next election, and they really need to go and find a replacement.
8. The AfD. In the month after the election....the AfD, because of people leaving to form their own parties....it probably slipped a notch and lost some public appeal. The basic issue of immigration? It remains. The odds of the new CDU-CSU-SPD government fixing migration and immigration? Pretty much zero. So I think the AfD will be around for four years and have time to develop other policies and strategies.
9. Having another vote today? Polls say various things. I would suggest that working-class Germans would like to have an entire second vote today, and that 10-percent of the people who voted for the SPD or CDU-CSU.....would go and vote in a different way. I would offer the observation that another vote might make the coalition-building exercise even a lesser chance of success.
10. Finally, the idea of a minority government. There are a couple of countries in Europe that run with this. Should this SPD-CDU coalition exercise fail....it's either this or have another election. Most believe it leaves a weak government in place and creates more tension. If you look eight years down the road, I suspect this will be the only way that the German government will be able to function. Both major parties are at the peak of their public attraction. It won't be positive for the EU, or for neighboring countries.
1. It was the fewest number of votes for the CDU (Merkel's party) and the SPD....since the war. Combined, 53-percent of the vote. Disenchantment over the two significant parties? That's really a theme that you notice over the past couple of years. And here's the project problem for 2021 and 2025 (the likely two next German elections)....it's very likely that they will go below 50-percent, and might even have trouble reaching 45-percent in the 2025 election.
2. The "mutti-problem"? As much as Merkel, her chief supporters in the CDU, and the journalists hype her staying on and being Chancellor in this next government.....if you go and talk to working class people...they want a change. They aren't talking about getting Schulz from the SPD.....but just some kinda change. Merkel probably needs to retire, but the CDU just doesn't have someone with the public appeal to replace her.
3. The affect of this long dragged-out coalition-building mess on the EU? Merkel and the coalition (CDU-CSU-SPD) over the past four years have been an anchor for the EU and it's progress. You get the impression that some folks in the EU are a bit worried because they need this formulated group to carry them onto the next level. Also, they might be worried over the 2019 EU general election across Europe, if this gets any worse.
4. The idea of just giving up on this coalition effort, and having a second election? Oh boy....I think the CDU and SPD leadership woke up two weeks ago when the FDP walked out of the coalition talks, and the two parties realized that they have lost some voters. Journalists are careful how the polls are done and try to suggest that the FDP and AfD are the ones who lost supporters. I would suggest, across working-class German lines....maybe both the CDU and SPD parties lost two or three points off their September vote, and going back to another election.....is just NOT an option.
5. If you go back to March of last year (2016), there was this big moment when things could have created a new dynamic. The Pfalz state election came up, and everyone felt that the CDU candidate....Klockner....would win, and go on to be the natural 2017 Merkel replacement. Well...Klockner lost by half-a-percent. That 100,000 vote problem changed the whole dynamics of this election...denying the CDU a chance to get a fresh face into the national election. Klockner had the appeal for a brief while.....to replace Merkel.
6. The one odd feature of the campaign period....was almost no real discussion over migration and immigration. Well, when they got into the coalition-building talks (CDU-CSU, Greens and FDP)....there's this problem because the Greens want to rig the door to be open and to have a significant path for people to enter. The FDP wanted a door that closed, and there had to be limits. It was obvious that this would never work for a coalition, because neither were going to give up on their situation. Under this new dynamic of the CDU-CSU and SPD parties forming the next coalition? There will be some open-door situation. As much as it alienates working-class Germans who might vote for either of the parties....the leadership of the two parties don't care. It's simply giving a chance for the AfD to survive on and probably take another two percent in the next election.
7. Schulz. For the SPD, he is a pro-EU guy and hypes the EU in almost every fourth-sentence that he delivers publicly. Beyond that, there's just not much in Schulz that attracts working-class Germans (my humble opinion). My guess is that he will remain around and be part of the cabinet in the new Merkel government (vice-Chancellor probably), and try to be the big-cog in the 2021 election. But I don't see the SPD getting more than 20-percent in the next election, and they really need to go and find a replacement.
8. The AfD. In the month after the election....the AfD, because of people leaving to form their own parties....it probably slipped a notch and lost some public appeal. The basic issue of immigration? It remains. The odds of the new CDU-CSU-SPD government fixing migration and immigration? Pretty much zero. So I think the AfD will be around for four years and have time to develop other policies and strategies.
9. Having another vote today? Polls say various things. I would suggest that working-class Germans would like to have an entire second vote today, and that 10-percent of the people who voted for the SPD or CDU-CSU.....would go and vote in a different way. I would offer the observation that another vote might make the coalition-building exercise even a lesser chance of success.
10. Finally, the idea of a minority government. There are a couple of countries in Europe that run with this. Should this SPD-CDU coalition exercise fail....it's either this or have another election. Most believe it leaves a weak government in place and creates more tension. If you look eight years down the road, I suspect this will be the only way that the German government will be able to function. Both major parties are at the peak of their public attraction. It won't be positive for the EU, or for neighboring countries.
The Tuk-Tuk Story
This introduction? It'll start off as being used for train employees, and be a fleet test operation (13 of them). My guess is that this will enlarge itself in the months to come and be seen throughout Germany as a Bahn vehicle.
Getting noticed and used by local taxi folks? Maybe, but there's no room for baggage and the max you could haul around is two people.
Homelessness in Germany
It's one of those numbers thrown around page two stories and never gets much public attention in Germany.
Right now today....there are 860,000 Germans who are homeless....based on a German federal government study. The expectation is, by the end of 2018....it'll be near 1.2-million Germans.
Why? As much as people talk positive about jobs in Germany and the low unemployment level....there's a segment of society who are at the bottom of the wage table and unable to procure housing with what is paid out to them at the end. This is particularly true in major metropolitan areas like Frankfurt, Essen, or Hamburg.
With 82,000,000 Germans existing, the discussion is that one-percent of the population don't have a home. And the number is growing.
Free housing coming out of this? The real solution is to examine the wage situation and determine a different relationship in regard to the payscale. Somewhere down the line, this whole massive topic of affordable housing will have to come up as well.
Right now today....there are 860,000 Germans who are homeless....based on a German federal government study. The expectation is, by the end of 2018....it'll be near 1.2-million Germans.
Why? As much as people talk positive about jobs in Germany and the low unemployment level....there's a segment of society who are at the bottom of the wage table and unable to procure housing with what is paid out to them at the end. This is particularly true in major metropolitan areas like Frankfurt, Essen, or Hamburg.
With 82,000,000 Germans existing, the discussion is that one-percent of the population don't have a home. And the number is growing.
Free housing coming out of this? The real solution is to examine the wage situation and determine a different relationship in regard to the payscale. Somewhere down the line, this whole massive topic of affordable housing will have to come up as well.
The Coalition Talk
Focus put up a piece this morning and discussed what be the 'nuke-request' for the SPD partnership in the coalition with the CDU.
The suggestion? Terminate the option for private health insurance in Germany.
It's not something that Americans typically grasp or understand about the German healthcare system.....but there are two tracks. The first is a public system, which mandates if you make under a certain amount of money....you have no choice but to participate in the public system. The second is a private health insurance system, which is an option if you make over the amount stipulated (typically over $50k USD).
How many Germans participate in the private option? 8.7-million....roughly 10-percent.
The pricing? Well, here's the thing....if you sign up in your 20's....the private policy is cheaper than the public policy. For maybe the first twenty years, it's that way. At age 60? The private policy pricing scheme is usually hefty and a lot more than the public policy.
But you find a number of doctors and clinics (particularly private operations) that prefer dealing with the private health insurance deal.
The other plus here is that you can get into a private health insurance deal which covers only particular things, and lessen the cost involved.
Why should the SPD push on this? Well....it'd bring the general public cost factor down a notch if more people were forced into this particular path. The 8.7-million people and their feelings? I'm guessing a lot of them have particular private doctors and clinics....who prefer the present situation. It would be curious to ask the 8.7-million about this but I'm taking a guess that few.....maybe very few....of them, are SPD-voters. Typically, the more money you make in life as a German, the less likely that you are a SPD-voter.
Opening up a door that angers some folks? Well, the health insurance companies who sell the private policies won't be happy. I'm guessing some private doctors and clinics won't be happy. Of the 8.7-million? It's hard to say. If the bulk of these people are unhappy....it likely affects the CDU vote pattern in both the Hessen and Bavaria voting episode coming up in 2018.
The suggestion? Terminate the option for private health insurance in Germany.
It's not something that Americans typically grasp or understand about the German healthcare system.....but there are two tracks. The first is a public system, which mandates if you make under a certain amount of money....you have no choice but to participate in the public system. The second is a private health insurance system, which is an option if you make over the amount stipulated (typically over $50k USD).
How many Germans participate in the private option? 8.7-million....roughly 10-percent.
The pricing? Well, here's the thing....if you sign up in your 20's....the private policy is cheaper than the public policy. For maybe the first twenty years, it's that way. At age 60? The private policy pricing scheme is usually hefty and a lot more than the public policy.
But you find a number of doctors and clinics (particularly private operations) that prefer dealing with the private health insurance deal.
The other plus here is that you can get into a private health insurance deal which covers only particular things, and lessen the cost involved.
Why should the SPD push on this? Well....it'd bring the general public cost factor down a notch if more people were forced into this particular path. The 8.7-million people and their feelings? I'm guessing a lot of them have particular private doctors and clinics....who prefer the present situation. It would be curious to ask the 8.7-million about this but I'm taking a guess that few.....maybe very few....of them, are SPD-voters. Typically, the more money you make in life as a German, the less likely that you are a SPD-voter.
Opening up a door that angers some folks? Well, the health insurance companies who sell the private policies won't be happy. I'm guessing some private doctors and clinics won't be happy. Of the 8.7-million? It's hard to say. If the bulk of these people are unhappy....it likely affects the CDU vote pattern in both the Hessen and Bavaria voting episode coming up in 2018.
Sunday, November 26, 2017
The Coalition Episode
This coalition-building exercise by Chancellor Merkel and the CDU-CSU....with the SPD? It' a bit of an odd 'dance'.
First, the SPD has been forced into this episode for two reasons. There's this great fear that a second election might go in a very negative way for the SPD. There's also this fear that if you went to a minority government, the band-aid fix.....that it'd be a dramatically weak government for weeks and months.
Second, the SPD really doesn't have a decent laundry list of things that they'd like to 'demand' upon the CDU-CSU team. They weren't expecting this to come up. So they've likely been busy over the weekend....developing a list and preparing to make major demands.
Third, the leadership core at the top of the SPD....namely Schulz himself.....isn't that keen to work as a junior partner of Merkel. In fact, if you guage comments of the past week by the secondary players of the SPD.....they aren't that pleased over Schulz and would like to see him gone.
Fourth, all of this demonstrating a weak political system within Germany, and setting up a worry situation for the EU elections in just two years.
Fifth, Merkel isn't viewed any longer as the long-term authority figure. Most Germans want a change....but they don't really want the SPD's Schulz as the change figure.
Where this goes? I think this will be a fairly quick discussion and the SPD folks get virtually everything they desire. The CDU voting crowd will be very dismayed over what was given over, and this will anger them for the foreseeable future (maybe affecting state elections for the 2018 and 2019 period).
As for Merkel staying around? I have serious doubts that she's still around in twelve months.
First, the SPD has been forced into this episode for two reasons. There's this great fear that a second election might go in a very negative way for the SPD. There's also this fear that if you went to a minority government, the band-aid fix.....that it'd be a dramatically weak government for weeks and months.
Second, the SPD really doesn't have a decent laundry list of things that they'd like to 'demand' upon the CDU-CSU team. They weren't expecting this to come up. So they've likely been busy over the weekend....developing a list and preparing to make major demands.
Third, the leadership core at the top of the SPD....namely Schulz himself.....isn't that keen to work as a junior partner of Merkel. In fact, if you guage comments of the past week by the secondary players of the SPD.....they aren't that pleased over Schulz and would like to see him gone.
Fourth, all of this demonstrating a weak political system within Germany, and setting up a worry situation for the EU elections in just two years.
Fifth, Merkel isn't viewed any longer as the long-term authority figure. Most Germans want a change....but they don't really want the SPD's Schulz as the change figure.
Where this goes? I think this will be a fairly quick discussion and the SPD folks get virtually everything they desire. The CDU voting crowd will be very dismayed over what was given over, and this will anger them for the foreseeable future (maybe affecting state elections for the 2018 and 2019 period).
As for Merkel staying around? I have serious doubts that she's still around in twelve months.
Catalonia and 21 December
The Spanish federal government has ordered new state elections for Catalonia....after it dismissed everyone out of the local state government.
The odds that the political parties pushing for independence win on 21 December (the announced date for the election)?
Well, this is one of the little things that you notice from this situation.
If the independence movement folks win in a massive way, and you have the same people in charge on the day after the election....it just complicates things all over again. It might help if 50-percent of the vote went for anti-independence political stances, but I doubt seriously if that will occur.
The odds that the political parties pushing for independence win on 21 December (the announced date for the election)?
Well, this is one of the little things that you notice from this situation.
If the independence movement folks win in a massive way, and you have the same people in charge on the day after the election....it just complicates things all over again. It might help if 50-percent of the vote went for anti-independence political stances, but I doubt seriously if that will occur.
The German Economy Story
In recent days, there's been some business announcements across Germany which detail job cuts.
Siemens? 3,000 likely to be laid off.
Osram? Around 700 likely to be laid off.
This long discussed merger of Tata and Thyssenkrupp? Likely to cause 4,000 Germans to be laid off.
These minor cuts are regarded now as potential waves of other companies and maybe a warning a negative period ahead.
Oddly, if you follow the public news sector (ARD, Channel One).....it's triggered a discussion over social responsibility of companies.
ARD ran a piece this morning which talked about the need of companies to....well....just continue running operations, even when profits are less in nature or growing marginal. Call it social responsibility.
All of this discussion draws political players into the debate and everyone is sitting there in some daze....trying to rationalize the economy, the German jobs, and how things should just stay the same.
I see a lot missing from this debate.
First, few people realize that all of these companies are now international in nature....so they cross lines. You can make X-product for X-amount in a X-country....while the same product can be made for 10-percent less in another. At some point, reality says that you would concentrate your production in the cheaper country, and lessen employees in the more costly country. The minute that you got all enthusiastic about global economies and be global in nature....you opened up a door which you have virtually NO control over.
Second, there is virtually no understanding that each time you added a tax, or a requirement onto the production system which added cost.....you increased x-product. Maybe it was one-tenth of one-percent....maybe it was one-quarter of one-percent....but you, without thinking....triggered this product within your country to be more expensive to produce. Go ask the political folks how this works, and watch how they just grin at you because they don't care.
Third, it's a bit funny now.....you can sense this wave coming now in Germany about 'Make Germany great again' (yeah, that stupid Trump label). Maybe it's five to eight years away, but someone is going to have to go and dump regulations....rebuild confidence.....and give some enthusiasm to German companies.
Fourth and final.....ever noticed that economists don't run companies? They like to analyze and make judgement calls....but they never seem to go beyond a certain point of actually making decisions and running companies. Oddly enough, these are the same folks dragged out for public forums on German TV, and spend an hour dumping on such-and-such company because of a perception of wrong-doing. Yet, they never run companies themselves?
Maybe this is the beginning of a dry period in the German economy....but one might sit and ask a few questions to understand how things got dry, and where does this lead onto?
Siemens? 3,000 likely to be laid off.
Osram? Around 700 likely to be laid off.
This long discussed merger of Tata and Thyssenkrupp? Likely to cause 4,000 Germans to be laid off.
These minor cuts are regarded now as potential waves of other companies and maybe a warning a negative period ahead.
Oddly, if you follow the public news sector (ARD, Channel One).....it's triggered a discussion over social responsibility of companies.
ARD ran a piece this morning which talked about the need of companies to....well....just continue running operations, even when profits are less in nature or growing marginal. Call it social responsibility.
All of this discussion draws political players into the debate and everyone is sitting there in some daze....trying to rationalize the economy, the German jobs, and how things should just stay the same.
I see a lot missing from this debate.
First, few people realize that all of these companies are now international in nature....so they cross lines. You can make X-product for X-amount in a X-country....while the same product can be made for 10-percent less in another. At some point, reality says that you would concentrate your production in the cheaper country, and lessen employees in the more costly country. The minute that you got all enthusiastic about global economies and be global in nature....you opened up a door which you have virtually NO control over.
Second, there is virtually no understanding that each time you added a tax, or a requirement onto the production system which added cost.....you increased x-product. Maybe it was one-tenth of one-percent....maybe it was one-quarter of one-percent....but you, without thinking....triggered this product within your country to be more expensive to produce. Go ask the political folks how this works, and watch how they just grin at you because they don't care.
Third, it's a bit funny now.....you can sense this wave coming now in Germany about 'Make Germany great again' (yeah, that stupid Trump label). Maybe it's five to eight years away, but someone is going to have to go and dump regulations....rebuild confidence.....and give some enthusiasm to German companies.
Fourth and final.....ever noticed that economists don't run companies? They like to analyze and make judgement calls....but they never seem to go beyond a certain point of actually making decisions and running companies. Oddly enough, these are the same folks dragged out for public forums on German TV, and spend an hour dumping on such-and-such company because of a perception of wrong-doing. Yet, they never run companies themselves?
Maybe this is the beginning of a dry period in the German economy....but one might sit and ask a few questions to understand how things got dry, and where does this lead onto?
Friday, November 24, 2017
Political Update: 24 November
In the last 24 hours, there's been a fair effort to bring the top leadership of the SPD Party to the coalition table with the CDU to form a new government. The odds that this will happen? You can figure talks will now occur, and that three weeks will be required to work out the various issues. The suggestion that the SPD might want the Greens involved, and to dislodge the CSU from the CDU? I think it's wishful thinking and simply won't occur.
For the two parties, it's obvious now that the high-point of the September election is best they can achieve, and if a second election were to occur (now less likely)....they'd both see lesser numbers.
My likely scenario if this coalition episode fails and the minority government idea fails? We'd go to a second election in roughly three months.
Between both the CDU-CSU machine and the SPD....I don't think they can carry more than 50-percent of the vote. You'd likely see the CDU-CSU folks end up with 28-percent, and the SPD near 20-percent. This would mean that another party (either the FDP or Greens) would have to join as a partner and this would make the whole process even more complicated.
The potential affect if the CDU-CSU Party were to only take 25-percent? It'd make it near impossible for a coalition to occur, and you'd definitely see a minority government episode going into place, for a four-year period....thus making this the weakest German government since WW II.
As for Merkel? I think she's drawing up her resignation letter, and discussing the idea of retirement. If not now....then in twelve months. The CDU folks now need to move on.....new blood....new direction.
The same is likely to occur with the SPD Party, and I think Schulz is looking at two years before he's forced to retire, and move on.
As for how this all plays out with BREXIT? A strong finish with Merkel in charge....would have put the EU into a better position. Without a strong figure at the table, the EU is not that great. Don't worry....the Brits will still have to pay down a fair sum of money to get their 'golden-agreement' but it probably will be 30-to-40 percent less than the massive sum discussed a year ago.
As for 2021's next German election? Well....it now starts to really get interesting on how the public sees this marginal government, and their achievements (or lack of achievements). It may be four years of limited actions, and mostly just political chatter.
For the two parties, it's obvious now that the high-point of the September election is best they can achieve, and if a second election were to occur (now less likely)....they'd both see lesser numbers.
My likely scenario if this coalition episode fails and the minority government idea fails? We'd go to a second election in roughly three months.
Between both the CDU-CSU machine and the SPD....I don't think they can carry more than 50-percent of the vote. You'd likely see the CDU-CSU folks end up with 28-percent, and the SPD near 20-percent. This would mean that another party (either the FDP or Greens) would have to join as a partner and this would make the whole process even more complicated.
The potential affect if the CDU-CSU Party were to only take 25-percent? It'd make it near impossible for a coalition to occur, and you'd definitely see a minority government episode going into place, for a four-year period....thus making this the weakest German government since WW II.
As for Merkel? I think she's drawing up her resignation letter, and discussing the idea of retirement. If not now....then in twelve months. The CDU folks now need to move on.....new blood....new direction.
The same is likely to occur with the SPD Party, and I think Schulz is looking at two years before he's forced to retire, and move on.
As for how this all plays out with BREXIT? A strong finish with Merkel in charge....would have put the EU into a better position. Without a strong figure at the table, the EU is not that great. Don't worry....the Brits will still have to pay down a fair sum of money to get their 'golden-agreement' but it probably will be 30-to-40 percent less than the massive sum discussed a year ago.
As for 2021's next German election? Well....it now starts to really get interesting on how the public sees this marginal government, and their achievements (or lack of achievements). It may be four years of limited actions, and mostly just political chatter.
The German Diesel Tax Discussion
There is a discussion underway at present in Germany....about dissolving the tax advantage of diesel fuel. The current advantage? It's worth 21.9 cents per liter.
If you drive around Germany, you tend the difference in pricing. It was one of the chief reasons that people were encouraged over the past few decades....to buy a diesel vehicle.
The change if this occurs? Some people suggest it could amount to ten billion Euro a year. I have some doubts over this number....but it's probably in the ballpark.
How things are stacked up in this argument? Well....politically.....the CDU and SPD both want the discount to remain. The Greens? They want the discount dissolved....rather quickly.
The issue that arises if it dissolves away? Millions of people around Germany went and bought diesel vehicles with the sales pitch that the discount was part of the everlasting deal. You can imagine the serious amount of anger and frustration if this were to dissolve and people started to pay the same price as gas.
In terms of being a major topic of discussion? That's the funny thing about this. You see almost no real discussion in this public TV chat forums over any of this disel business. If you dragged out a dozen diesel car owners.....they'd chat about this for an entire hour.
What would the government go and do with the ten billion a year? You would think they'd rig up some tax reform deal and hand some money back to the public....but with the Greens involved....they'd likely want the money flushed into the system for public housing or infrastructure.
If you drive around Germany, you tend the difference in pricing. It was one of the chief reasons that people were encouraged over the past few decades....to buy a diesel vehicle.
The change if this occurs? Some people suggest it could amount to ten billion Euro a year. I have some doubts over this number....but it's probably in the ballpark.
How things are stacked up in this argument? Well....politically.....the CDU and SPD both want the discount to remain. The Greens? They want the discount dissolved....rather quickly.
The issue that arises if it dissolves away? Millions of people around Germany went and bought diesel vehicles with the sales pitch that the discount was part of the everlasting deal. You can imagine the serious amount of anger and frustration if this were to dissolve and people started to pay the same price as gas.
In terms of being a major topic of discussion? That's the funny thing about this. You see almost no real discussion in this public TV chat forums over any of this disel business. If you dragged out a dozen diesel car owners.....they'd chat about this for an entire hour.
What would the government go and do with the ten billion a year? You would think they'd rig up some tax reform deal and hand some money back to the public....but with the Greens involved....they'd likely want the money flushed into the system for public housing or infrastructure.
The Bundestag Tweeter Story
Back around 2010....the German Bundestag (their Congress) had this remarkable event come up....some guy walked up to the podium and delivered a speech with the text....written off on a tab (the handheld laptop). At the time....it was a shock, but it was not forbidden. After the little episode....they had a discussion about this and determined that it wasn't something that they wanted to forbid.
This past week....the Bundestag President....Wolfgang Schäuble....triggered a bit of debate over the problem of Tweeter comments being made while sitting in session. He offered up a reminder that the use of handheld laptops, smart-phones, etc.....should only be in 'reserve' use, and not actively used in sessions.
A rule to forbid Tweeter commenting? No, there is no such rule in place and it's hard to see how you'd make the rule.
If you watch German video of Bundestag sessions....it's obvious that just about everyone is using Blackberry devices or Smart-Phones....to communicate while sessions are underway.
Stopping Tweeter commenting? I doubt if they can make this happen now....the Pandoras Box has already been opened.
This past week....the Bundestag President....Wolfgang Schäuble....triggered a bit of debate over the problem of Tweeter comments being made while sitting in session. He offered up a reminder that the use of handheld laptops, smart-phones, etc.....should only be in 'reserve' use, and not actively used in sessions.
A rule to forbid Tweeter commenting? No, there is no such rule in place and it's hard to see how you'd make the rule.
If you watch German video of Bundestag sessions....it's obvious that just about everyone is using Blackberry devices or Smart-Phones....to communicate while sessions are underway.
Stopping Tweeter commenting? I doubt if they can make this happen now....the Pandoras Box has already been opened.
Siemens and the SPD
In the last week or two....within Germany....Siemens came up and announced some lay-offs. 6,900 worldwide.....half of them in Germany. Business has slowed down to some degree.
Naturally, this attracted political interest in Germany, and got the SPD folks all hyped up....to the degree that the SPD chief (Schulz) sent off a public statement saying that Siemens was being 'asocial' and going against the common good of Germany.
Normally, the political statement would have gone by and Siemens would have avoided making any statement at all. Well....times have changed, and Siemen's boss....Joe Kaeser....decided that it was appropriate to fire off at the SPD Party.
Kaeser noted: "Perhaps you should also consider who truly acts irresponsibly: those who proactively tackle foreseeable structural issues and seek long-term solutions, or those who are beyond responsibility and dialogue."
Kaeser then noted that over the past five years.....Siemens paid 20 billion Euro in taxes, fines, and pension contributions into the German government.
The energy topic? Well.....Siemens brought up this issue too....in that the government apparently doesn't require any oil or coal fired plants....which is what Siemens was partly in the business of doing.
In some ways, with my own humble opinion....the SPD Party used to be a party that was connected to the working class, in various ways. If companies did well....employees benefited and the government benefited. Today? It's a fake connection to the working class people that the SPD exhibits. The idea that the business needs to profit or do well? No one cares. So, why bother supporting the structure within Germany.....when you could downsize or ship jobs off elsewhere? I doubt if Schulz or the core of the leadership within the SPD Party realizes this today.
The twenty billion Euro shipped off to the German government? Well....they spent part of it, and the EU got their hands on part of it as well. What good did it do? Unknown. Bridges and roads were built, and the screwed-up mess of the BER (the Berlin Airport) soaked up part of this funding.
Where this goes? Well....The 6,900 jobs are permanently gone at this point, and if you were in the German government.....you might want to ask what exactly is going on and if the business strategy of the nation....is failing it's people.
Naturally, this attracted political interest in Germany, and got the SPD folks all hyped up....to the degree that the SPD chief (Schulz) sent off a public statement saying that Siemens was being 'asocial' and going against the common good of Germany.
Normally, the political statement would have gone by and Siemens would have avoided making any statement at all. Well....times have changed, and Siemen's boss....Joe Kaeser....decided that it was appropriate to fire off at the SPD Party.
Kaeser noted: "Perhaps you should also consider who truly acts irresponsibly: those who proactively tackle foreseeable structural issues and seek long-term solutions, or those who are beyond responsibility and dialogue."
Kaeser then noted that over the past five years.....Siemens paid 20 billion Euro in taxes, fines, and pension contributions into the German government.
The energy topic? Well.....Siemens brought up this issue too....in that the government apparently doesn't require any oil or coal fired plants....which is what Siemens was partly in the business of doing.
In some ways, with my own humble opinion....the SPD Party used to be a party that was connected to the working class, in various ways. If companies did well....employees benefited and the government benefited. Today? It's a fake connection to the working class people that the SPD exhibits. The idea that the business needs to profit or do well? No one cares. So, why bother supporting the structure within Germany.....when you could downsize or ship jobs off elsewhere? I doubt if Schulz or the core of the leadership within the SPD Party realizes this today.
The twenty billion Euro shipped off to the German government? Well....they spent part of it, and the EU got their hands on part of it as well. What good did it do? Unknown. Bridges and roads were built, and the screwed-up mess of the BER (the Berlin Airport) soaked up part of this funding.
Where this goes? Well....The 6,900 jobs are permanently gone at this point, and if you were in the German government.....you might want to ask what exactly is going on and if the business strategy of the nation....is failing it's people.
The Electric Car Story
There is a piece (short in nature) by ARD (Channel One, in Germany) today....over this idea of forcing the public to accept more electric cars.
The suggestion? The German Environmental Council wants a quota on electric cars......25-percent.
Deadline for this number establishment? 2025 (seven years from now).
Their quote is: "Electromobility is highly efficient and ready for the market, we now have to move quickly." All of this would lead to positive CO2 numbers.
The problem with a quota? Well....how would you actually force people into this trend?
People shake their heads presently over the lack of chargers. You can travel over the country and there are various digital maps existing to lead you to a charger station, where you would sit for two or three hours and recharge your car. If the nation did reach the 25-percent point by 2025....would there be enough chargers out there? My guess is that you'd have to have a massive installation program to make this work.....which isn't existing presently.
Would the power grid be able to accept this? No one has really done enough analysis to say where the grid is presently and if 10-percent, 20-percent or 30-percent growth occurred....would the grid deliver? Presently the plan to shut down the nuke power plants remain....with coal-fired plants behind them. I admit massive growth in wind-power, but there is a question-mark existing here.
Then you get to the pricing scheme. Most Germans look at the car-show demonstrations and eyeball the price-tag of the electric cars shown. Most are in a hefty range. The E-Go car? Down into the 15,000 Euro range, but it's a car designed for two people max, with a charging time going into five to six hours. Germans research heavily and the draw to the electric car business is not there yet.
How would the quota be achieved? My guess is that the political folks would wander into this mess and decide to tax the heck out of diesel and gas at the pumps. This would help to pay for affordable housing or some social benefit cause. The public reaction? Mostly angry and shaking their heads.
Along this route, I see this one single problem existing down the road in twenty years. Let's say that fifty-percent of society by 2037 had electric cars, and the bulk went to installing solar power collectors onto their house, and nightly charging their car with their own juice.....all this taxation money from gas/diesel sales for seventy-odd years? It'd bring you to a moment where people weren't charging from the grid (where you'd get tax money). Where exactly would you find all this tax situations to overcome this shortfall? Oh......new taxation schemes? Yes.
These folks may get their 25-percent but I would question how exactly it'll be achieved and if it's a positive thing.
The suggestion? The German Environmental Council wants a quota on electric cars......25-percent.
Deadline for this number establishment? 2025 (seven years from now).
Their quote is: "Electromobility is highly efficient and ready for the market, we now have to move quickly." All of this would lead to positive CO2 numbers.
The problem with a quota? Well....how would you actually force people into this trend?
People shake their heads presently over the lack of chargers. You can travel over the country and there are various digital maps existing to lead you to a charger station, where you would sit for two or three hours and recharge your car. If the nation did reach the 25-percent point by 2025....would there be enough chargers out there? My guess is that you'd have to have a massive installation program to make this work.....which isn't existing presently.
Would the power grid be able to accept this? No one has really done enough analysis to say where the grid is presently and if 10-percent, 20-percent or 30-percent growth occurred....would the grid deliver? Presently the plan to shut down the nuke power plants remain....with coal-fired plants behind them. I admit massive growth in wind-power, but there is a question-mark existing here.
Then you get to the pricing scheme. Most Germans look at the car-show demonstrations and eyeball the price-tag of the electric cars shown. Most are in a hefty range. The E-Go car? Down into the 15,000 Euro range, but it's a car designed for two people max, with a charging time going into five to six hours. Germans research heavily and the draw to the electric car business is not there yet.
How would the quota be achieved? My guess is that the political folks would wander into this mess and decide to tax the heck out of diesel and gas at the pumps. This would help to pay for affordable housing or some social benefit cause. The public reaction? Mostly angry and shaking their heads.
Along this route, I see this one single problem existing down the road in twenty years. Let's say that fifty-percent of society by 2037 had electric cars, and the bulk went to installing solar power collectors onto their house, and nightly charging their car with their own juice.....all this taxation money from gas/diesel sales for seventy-odd years? It'd bring you to a moment where people weren't charging from the grid (where you'd get tax money). Where exactly would you find all this tax situations to overcome this shortfall? Oh......new taxation schemes? Yes.
These folks may get their 25-percent but I would question how exactly it'll be achieved and if it's a positive thing.
The Coalition Solution
In the past twenty-four hours, a fair number of things have occurred, which might suggest the 2nd election idea in Germany will not be necessary.
As much as the top level of the SPD has said 'no' in public of joining a coalition with the CDU....some members are pressing hard to force a meeting and a discussion.
The Frankfurt Rundschau (major majors source in Hessen) had an open letter by two major political figures (Gesine Schwan and Wolfgang Thierse).....suggesting a coalition between the CDU, the SPD, and Greens.
Why the necessity of the Greens? I think they are suggesting that the CSU (the Bavarians) be excluded from this partnership.
Why press? Well, there's this feeling now that not only will the CDU see lesser numbers in another election....but the SPD as well, and that means a fair number of folks in Berlin will have to pack up and go home.
What is suggested in this open letter?
These two suggest a new social justice policy. They want the German welfare program (Hartz IV) reformed. They aren't say exactly how it'd look, but they indicate that the poverty-like status brewing in Germany since Hartz IV came along....is not a good idea. They also suggest a state-sponsored program for affordable housing to be built (something that the CDU hasn't been eager to touch).
The second big area that the two suggest is that they see a need to get Europe (probably the EU as well) onboard to one central theme of refugee/immigration policy....bringing all of the EU to one view. That would mean the Merkel-open door was to become an EU theme, and that various countries would be forced to accept that.
I sat and pondered upon this development, and came to six observations.
1. First, excluding the CSU (the Bavarians) and bringing in the Greens....has a heavy payment attachment. Bavaria is slated to have an election in the spring, if this exclusion were to occur, there would be massive anger and hostility brewing for the CSU chances in the state election. You could carve off ten-percent of the normal voting pattern. This would also push the CSU into criticizing the Merkel government, and it'd be a continual theme for four years.
2. Reforming Hartz IV (the welfare program)? For a decade, it's been obvious that the program had issues, but to resolve this.....you'd have to probably pump the fund up by thirty-percent minimum (several billion Euro). They would waste months arguing how the reform would be done and the level of unfairness would be an open political topic with the public. Where would the money come from? Well....that's not mentioned by the SPD, nor do they care. For the CDU, it ought to matter. More taxation would have to occur.
3. The amount of desperation here for Merkel, the CDU, and the SPD? Massive. If a second election were forced....both likely lose 10-percent of their vote collection from September. It might actually create a more difficult coalition-building effort, and maybe even a 3rd election. So they are all desperate in a way to avoid the 2nd election idea.
4. This idea of the affordable housing idea and making the government sponsor the construction of these apartments? If you picked out the top ten urbanized areas in Germany and ran such a program (I'm guessing the SPD would actually want thirty cities/areas included but I'll limit this to ten).....then we are talking about Hamburg, Essen, Berlin, Frankfurt, etc. All of these, except Munich.....tend to vote SPD heavily. The cost for just ten regions? It'd have to be in the twenty-five billion EU range over four years. Where would the money come from? Well....more taxation. All of this construction going on? It would jump-start the economy to some degree (for four years) and increase jobs (the one big positive).
5. The reaction by the FDP? All the negatives that they had with the Green agenda in the coalition talks? They would readily be proven correct. Every single month....the FDP would be on the criticism angle, and likely draw a quarter of the CDU voters in four years to their agenda. In some ways, Merkel would be destroying the CDU core of voters.
6. Finally, I come to this odd theme of bringing the German view of immigration to the EU, and forcing every member to accept refugees. I think in some ways....it'd eventually disrupt the EU. At least six nations of the EU just won't see this as a practical or acceptable change. Exporting this policy that has now been questioned across most of German society? I think a fair number of CDU and SPD voters would look upon this and shake their heads.
In the end, Merkel will accept virtually any kind of coalition possible.....to avoid the 2nd election. In a way, this is creating a Frankenstein-like monster for the 2021 national election, and I seriously doubt that the national total for the SPD and CDU parties will total more than 45-percent in that election. If you think this coalition solution resolved anything....it really just made things really difficult in the future.
As much as the top level of the SPD has said 'no' in public of joining a coalition with the CDU....some members are pressing hard to force a meeting and a discussion.
The Frankfurt Rundschau (major majors source in Hessen) had an open letter by two major political figures (Gesine Schwan and Wolfgang Thierse).....suggesting a coalition between the CDU, the SPD, and Greens.
Why the necessity of the Greens? I think they are suggesting that the CSU (the Bavarians) be excluded from this partnership.
Why press? Well, there's this feeling now that not only will the CDU see lesser numbers in another election....but the SPD as well, and that means a fair number of folks in Berlin will have to pack up and go home.
What is suggested in this open letter?
These two suggest a new social justice policy. They want the German welfare program (Hartz IV) reformed. They aren't say exactly how it'd look, but they indicate that the poverty-like status brewing in Germany since Hartz IV came along....is not a good idea. They also suggest a state-sponsored program for affordable housing to be built (something that the CDU hasn't been eager to touch).
The second big area that the two suggest is that they see a need to get Europe (probably the EU as well) onboard to one central theme of refugee/immigration policy....bringing all of the EU to one view. That would mean the Merkel-open door was to become an EU theme, and that various countries would be forced to accept that.
I sat and pondered upon this development, and came to six observations.
1. First, excluding the CSU (the Bavarians) and bringing in the Greens....has a heavy payment attachment. Bavaria is slated to have an election in the spring, if this exclusion were to occur, there would be massive anger and hostility brewing for the CSU chances in the state election. You could carve off ten-percent of the normal voting pattern. This would also push the CSU into criticizing the Merkel government, and it'd be a continual theme for four years.
2. Reforming Hartz IV (the welfare program)? For a decade, it's been obvious that the program had issues, but to resolve this.....you'd have to probably pump the fund up by thirty-percent minimum (several billion Euro). They would waste months arguing how the reform would be done and the level of unfairness would be an open political topic with the public. Where would the money come from? Well....that's not mentioned by the SPD, nor do they care. For the CDU, it ought to matter. More taxation would have to occur.
3. The amount of desperation here for Merkel, the CDU, and the SPD? Massive. If a second election were forced....both likely lose 10-percent of their vote collection from September. It might actually create a more difficult coalition-building effort, and maybe even a 3rd election. So they are all desperate in a way to avoid the 2nd election idea.
4. This idea of the affordable housing idea and making the government sponsor the construction of these apartments? If you picked out the top ten urbanized areas in Germany and ran such a program (I'm guessing the SPD would actually want thirty cities/areas included but I'll limit this to ten).....then we are talking about Hamburg, Essen, Berlin, Frankfurt, etc. All of these, except Munich.....tend to vote SPD heavily. The cost for just ten regions? It'd have to be in the twenty-five billion EU range over four years. Where would the money come from? Well....more taxation. All of this construction going on? It would jump-start the economy to some degree (for four years) and increase jobs (the one big positive).
5. The reaction by the FDP? All the negatives that they had with the Green agenda in the coalition talks? They would readily be proven correct. Every single month....the FDP would be on the criticism angle, and likely draw a quarter of the CDU voters in four years to their agenda. In some ways, Merkel would be destroying the CDU core of voters.
6. Finally, I come to this odd theme of bringing the German view of immigration to the EU, and forcing every member to accept refugees. I think in some ways....it'd eventually disrupt the EU. At least six nations of the EU just won't see this as a practical or acceptable change. Exporting this policy that has now been questioned across most of German society? I think a fair number of CDU and SPD voters would look upon this and shake their heads.
In the end, Merkel will accept virtually any kind of coalition possible.....to avoid the 2nd election. In a way, this is creating a Frankenstein-like monster for the 2021 national election, and I seriously doubt that the national total for the SPD and CDU parties will total more than 45-percent in that election. If you think this coalition solution resolved anything....it really just made things really difficult in the future.
Thursday, November 23, 2017
Explaining the US Gun Situation to a German
You tend to notice a fair amount of German news media attention on gun control within the US, and Germans will tell you that they absolutely understand the topic. At this point, you have to lead them into an educational moment.
You start with the exact wording of the 2nd Amendment:
A well regulated Militia, being necessary to the security of a free State, the right of the people to keep and bear Arms, shall not be infringed.
German translation: Eine gut regulierte Miliz, die zur Sicherheit eines freien Staates notwendig ist, das Recht des Volkes, Waffen zu behalten und zu tragen, wird nicht verletzt.
Infringed or verletzt, is an interesting word. It typically means unchanged.
So you then note that if you wanted to dump the word infringed or verletzt.....all you have to do is go and change the Constitution.
There are two methods stipulated to change the Constitution: (1) The House and Senate meet and propose the change with two-thirds of a vote in each. (2) Two-thirds of the state legislatures can call for a constitutional convention. The convention would then write/draft the proposed change and vote upon it.
No matter which method you use....you then come to the more significant issue. The change offered up by method one or two....then has to go back to all fifty states, and three-quarters (75-percent) of the states must review it and pass legislation to accept the change.
While it may not be obvious to the German....you can ask them....why can't a ten-word sentence be added to allow gun control? The answer is that you can't get that type of change accepted across the states required for a Constitutional change.
So all of this leads only to one alternate outcome....the fight to use the Supreme Court to invalidate the 2nd Amendment or to skip on the Constitutional change by saying a different interpretation exists. That's what this entire discussion is really about. You can't find a group of people from all fifty states to accept a ten-word change.
The German use of licenses? When you go and examine the whole German method of issuing weapon licenses, the term of guns is not a right, and so this German word 'verletz' (infringed) doesn't exist.
As much as the German news media tries to play the intellectual game and pretend they understand the whole system....they fail to grasp this term 'verletz', and the methods required to change things.
You start with the exact wording of the 2nd Amendment:
A well regulated Militia, being necessary to the security of a free State, the right of the people to keep and bear Arms, shall not be infringed.
German translation: Eine gut regulierte Miliz, die zur Sicherheit eines freien Staates notwendig ist, das Recht des Volkes, Waffen zu behalten und zu tragen, wird nicht verletzt.
Infringed or verletzt, is an interesting word. It typically means unchanged.
So you then note that if you wanted to dump the word infringed or verletzt.....all you have to do is go and change the Constitution.
There are two methods stipulated to change the Constitution: (1) The House and Senate meet and propose the change with two-thirds of a vote in each. (2) Two-thirds of the state legislatures can call for a constitutional convention. The convention would then write/draft the proposed change and vote upon it.
No matter which method you use....you then come to the more significant issue. The change offered up by method one or two....then has to go back to all fifty states, and three-quarters (75-percent) of the states must review it and pass legislation to accept the change.
While it may not be obvious to the German....you can ask them....why can't a ten-word sentence be added to allow gun control? The answer is that you can't get that type of change accepted across the states required for a Constitutional change.
So all of this leads only to one alternate outcome....the fight to use the Supreme Court to invalidate the 2nd Amendment or to skip on the Constitutional change by saying a different interpretation exists. That's what this entire discussion is really about. You can't find a group of people from all fifty states to accept a ten-word change.
The German use of licenses? When you go and examine the whole German method of issuing weapon licenses, the term of guns is not a right, and so this German word 'verletz' (infringed) doesn't exist.
As much as the German news media tries to play the intellectual game and pretend they understand the whole system....they fail to grasp this term 'verletz', and the methods required to change things.
Wednesday, November 22, 2017
Hessen Traffic Topic
Anyone who lives around the state of Hessen (Germany) will grumble to a fair extent about traffic jams, and near-shutdowns of the autobahn system.
Yesterday, the SPD Party within the state....called upon the state government to develop some type of concept to 'fix' the problem. To be honest, it'll just generate a couple of PhD-type folks in traffic management to admit in a year that you can't fix traffic jams, unless you lessen the number of cars.
The number of hours for the whole state with jams? 31,600 hours for 2016.
My wife travels 20.8 kilometers (13 miles, each way) to work each morning. You can expect this trip to take near 45 minutes. One might laugh over the trip and the amount of time required. I've driven it with her on at least a hundred occasions.
There are at least five bottlenecks in this 13-mile drive, which add at least two to four minutes in a waiting pattern. Rain? You can add another five minutes onto the trip. Snow? Add at least fifteen additional minutes.
The urbanization of the region? Well....this is really where you go and discuss the bulk of this topic. As you look across the Rhine Valley area....I doubt if anyone back in the 1960s would have envisioned this number of cars moving within the region and the dense nature of traffic.
Yesterday, the SPD Party within the state....called upon the state government to develop some type of concept to 'fix' the problem. To be honest, it'll just generate a couple of PhD-type folks in traffic management to admit in a year that you can't fix traffic jams, unless you lessen the number of cars.
The number of hours for the whole state with jams? 31,600 hours for 2016.
My wife travels 20.8 kilometers (13 miles, each way) to work each morning. You can expect this trip to take near 45 minutes. One might laugh over the trip and the amount of time required. I've driven it with her on at least a hundred occasions.
There are at least five bottlenecks in this 13-mile drive, which add at least two to four minutes in a waiting pattern. Rain? You can add another five minutes onto the trip. Snow? Add at least fifteen additional minutes.
The urbanization of the region? Well....this is really where you go and discuss the bulk of this topic. As you look across the Rhine Valley area....I doubt if anyone back in the 1960s would have envisioned this number of cars moving within the region and the dense nature of traffic.
This Topic of Article 81
Deep into the German news today and centered on this effort to prevent another election from occurring, is this chat about Article 81 of the Basic Law (German Constitution).
The brief wording of the article basically says that in a situation where the Bundestag is not dissolved (thus requiring an election)....the Federal President (Frank Walter Steinmier, SPD), MAY declare a state of legislative emergency.
This 'state period' means that the government would continue to operate, with a minority government. The party with the most votes....automatically has the the government mandate.
It was designed in some ways for a temporary period....say a couple of months, in a period of 'emergency' (undefined in the Constitution).
No one is saying this is a good solution or such. It's a sort of band-aid to get by for a period of months probably (certainly not for four years).
I suspect a lot of political folks in Berlin are now wondering how a second election would turn out, and if both major parties (CDU and SPD) would be heavily punished if a second election were to occur. Might the two parties get less than fifty percent of the vote combined? Yes, that's a major possibility....thus showing a major weakness in the government, and the future.
One might guess that Steinmier sees this as a year-long period to cool off the political flame, and give some time for the parties to repair their public appeal.
The decision on the Article 81 approach? One might see this announced by Monday of next week....otherwise, it'll be an announcement for a new election coming up shortly.
The actual wording of Article 81?
"Legislative emergency
(1) If, in the circumstances described in Article 68, the Bundestag is not dissolved, the Federal President, at the request of the Federal Government and with the consent of the Bundesrat, may declare a state of legislative emergency with respect to a bill, if the Bundestag rejects the bill although the Federal Government has declared it to be urgent. The same shall apply if a bill has been rejected although the Federal Chancellor had combined it with a motion under Article 68.
(2) If, after a state of legislative emergency has been declared, the Bundestag again rejects the bill or adopts it in a version the Federal Government declares unacceptable, the bill shall be deemed to have become law to the extent that it receives the consent of the Bundesrat. The same shall apply if the Bundestag does not pass the bill within four weeks after it is reintroduced.
(3) During the term of office of a Federal Chancellor, any other bill rejected by the Bundestag may become law in accordance with paragraphs (1) and (2) of this Article within a period of six months after the first declaration of a state of legislative emergency. After the expiration of this period, no further declaration of a state of legislative emergency may be made during the term of office of the same Federal Chancellor.
(4) This Basic Law may neither be amended nor abrogated nor suspended in whole or in part by a law enacted pursuant to paragraph (2) of this Article."
The odd side to this story? Typically, the German President's job is just to meet and greet folks, conduct ceremonies, and travel in the interest of the nation. It's not to run the Bundestag, which is where Article 81 is leading the discussion. Steinmier's work probably would double for this period.
Whoever wrote Article 81 originally....probably did not have this scenario in their mind....otherwise, it would have added some more features and laid out a more concrete path.
My last observation? I think if this is pulled out and used....you can probably anticipate some kind of election announcement by the end of 2019. They might be able to survive out twelve months with this sort of 'fix', and convince the public for that period that things are fine.
Oddly, the topic of immigration (the cap, the allowing of family members to enter)? Well....yeah, that's a funny thing. This would halt that entire discussion and nothing over immigration or asylum would likely occur. Some Germans would sit there and just laugh about the effort to avoid this entire topic and how Article 81 gave the government a chance to skip this mess.
The brief wording of the article basically says that in a situation where the Bundestag is not dissolved (thus requiring an election)....the Federal President (Frank Walter Steinmier, SPD), MAY declare a state of legislative emergency.
This 'state period' means that the government would continue to operate, with a minority government. The party with the most votes....automatically has the the government mandate.
It was designed in some ways for a temporary period....say a couple of months, in a period of 'emergency' (undefined in the Constitution).
No one is saying this is a good solution or such. It's a sort of band-aid to get by for a period of months probably (certainly not for four years).
I suspect a lot of political folks in Berlin are now wondering how a second election would turn out, and if both major parties (CDU and SPD) would be heavily punished if a second election were to occur. Might the two parties get less than fifty percent of the vote combined? Yes, that's a major possibility....thus showing a major weakness in the government, and the future.
One might guess that Steinmier sees this as a year-long period to cool off the political flame, and give some time for the parties to repair their public appeal.
The decision on the Article 81 approach? One might see this announced by Monday of next week....otherwise, it'll be an announcement for a new election coming up shortly.
The actual wording of Article 81?
"Legislative emergency
(1) If, in the circumstances described in Article 68, the Bundestag is not dissolved, the Federal President, at the request of the Federal Government and with the consent of the Bundesrat, may declare a state of legislative emergency with respect to a bill, if the Bundestag rejects the bill although the Federal Government has declared it to be urgent. The same shall apply if a bill has been rejected although the Federal Chancellor had combined it with a motion under Article 68.
(2) If, after a state of legislative emergency has been declared, the Bundestag again rejects the bill or adopts it in a version the Federal Government declares unacceptable, the bill shall be deemed to have become law to the extent that it receives the consent of the Bundesrat. The same shall apply if the Bundestag does not pass the bill within four weeks after it is reintroduced.
(3) During the term of office of a Federal Chancellor, any other bill rejected by the Bundestag may become law in accordance with paragraphs (1) and (2) of this Article within a period of six months after the first declaration of a state of legislative emergency. After the expiration of this period, no further declaration of a state of legislative emergency may be made during the term of office of the same Federal Chancellor.
(4) This Basic Law may neither be amended nor abrogated nor suspended in whole or in part by a law enacted pursuant to paragraph (2) of this Article."
The odd side to this story? Typically, the German President's job is just to meet and greet folks, conduct ceremonies, and travel in the interest of the nation. It's not to run the Bundestag, which is where Article 81 is leading the discussion. Steinmier's work probably would double for this period.
Whoever wrote Article 81 originally....probably did not have this scenario in their mind....otherwise, it would have added some more features and laid out a more concrete path.
My last observation? I think if this is pulled out and used....you can probably anticipate some kind of election announcement by the end of 2019. They might be able to survive out twelve months with this sort of 'fix', and convince the public for that period that things are fine.
Oddly, the topic of immigration (the cap, the allowing of family members to enter)? Well....yeah, that's a funny thing. This would halt that entire discussion and nothing over immigration or asylum would likely occur. Some Germans would sit there and just laugh about the effort to avoid this entire topic and how Article 81 gave the government a chance to skip this mess.
SPD on 22 November
As various German news sources report it today.....a fair number of the upper-level SPD members want Schulz (their chief) to sit and at least have a chat with Merkel over the idea of a coalition. It's to the level that they might demand he ask for a vote, and it could reach the level where half the members that matter....force the idea.
The issue is....a growing number of folks don't want a second election. I suspect there is some fear over numbers getting worse (more so for the SPD), and the best cards on the table...exist right now.
What the SPD might demand? Merkel to retire? Well....they could suggest this. They could go and suggest a comprehension reform package that their voters would be thrilled about. There are literally dozens of things that could be on the table.
I won't say that the second election is definite yet...but they probably have to decide by Monday morning of next week....for sure.
The issue is....a growing number of folks don't want a second election. I suspect there is some fear over numbers getting worse (more so for the SPD), and the best cards on the table...exist right now.
What the SPD might demand? Merkel to retire? Well....they could suggest this. They could go and suggest a comprehension reform package that their voters would be thrilled about. There are literally dozens of things that could be on the table.
I won't say that the second election is definite yet...but they probably have to decide by Monday morning of next week....for sure.
How the Immigration 'Cap' Fell into the Political Mess of Germany
Germany, and going all the way back to the times of West Germany.....never had a 'cap' to exist over immigrants and migrants entering the country. Until the last decade, it never needed to be discussed. For the most part, going back to the late 1980s, the nation had roughly 250,000 folks a year who did the asylum, immigration or migration effort.
After 2015, and the 1.1-odd million (sometimes told by the government to be 900,000)....various folks felt the need for a top number to exist....a cap.
So after this September election....the number discussed by the CSU (the Bavarian sister party of the CDU), was 200,000. To make the CSU happy, Merkel and the team agreed to the 200,000 number. Then it went to the coalition talks with the Greens and the FDP, with this 200,000 cap number as the base of any topic relating to migration or immigration.
For the Greens, this 200,000 number is a problem. They'd prefer no number to exist. For the FDP, 200,000 is where they want the whole coalition to be in agreement.
So, a new agenda topic came up....quietly and rarely discussed in public TV forums...family members of those already allowed into Germany....would get a chance to enter and NOT be listed under the 200,000 number. The limit on family numbers? No limit. How far this might reach? No one wanted to really talk about in public. If you made into the German system and had a visa....bringing Mom and Dad would be simple....but what about your cousins? Your cousin's wife? Their extended family? You could be talking about one single guy, who wanted to bring 20 members of his family into Germany. Maybe you'd be talking about 25,000 in one single year.....maybe 75,000.....or perhaps even 300,000.
You can sense how it would be in the room and these number discussions being carried out. And if you brought these twenty relatives into the country.....might each of them have another twenty relatives extended out, and over ten years.....this might add up to three to five million? Well, that's the thing, you just didn't know what the numbers would add up to.
The problem of an ID? Well, yeah, that's another issue. What if X wanted to bring four nephews into Germany....with a marginal ID for each, and you found out two years later that none of the four are actual nephews...just fake nephews. What if X wanted to bring twelve members of the family in, and you found that the twelve were all fake and had paid X some fee.....like 60,000 Euro....to claim the fake family?
For the Greens, none of this doubt existed in their mind. They were obsessed with just keeping this vast door open. The 200,000 cap that the CSU created....looked nice on paper and made their voters in Bavaria happy....giving Merkel some breathing room. But in the real world....the 200,000 cap meant nothing, if this family open door was existing with no cap.
So here we are....a remaining problem from 2015 and the 'kids' running the candy store. Merkel can't resolve this or move forward.
Even with another election likely in February now.....the topic of the family immigration policy will still come back. You can't resolve this, unless you establish a cap on the family issue.
The other minor issue over this....if X had twenty family members he wanted to bring into Germany....would they all come to where X is located....is NRW (the northwestern part of Germany), where unemployment is significant now, and the communities overloaded already with refugees and migrants? Would you force the incoming family members to migrate to another state....say Bavaria? Would this be legal to force them into another region to settle? All problems, with no real room for discussion.
So, when you sit and see the public news crowd try to step around this topic and barely discuss it in front of the nation.....this is the core of the situation. It's a topic with no answer and no foundation.
After 2015, and the 1.1-odd million (sometimes told by the government to be 900,000)....various folks felt the need for a top number to exist....a cap.
So after this September election....the number discussed by the CSU (the Bavarian sister party of the CDU), was 200,000. To make the CSU happy, Merkel and the team agreed to the 200,000 number. Then it went to the coalition talks with the Greens and the FDP, with this 200,000 cap number as the base of any topic relating to migration or immigration.
For the Greens, this 200,000 number is a problem. They'd prefer no number to exist. For the FDP, 200,000 is where they want the whole coalition to be in agreement.
So, a new agenda topic came up....quietly and rarely discussed in public TV forums...family members of those already allowed into Germany....would get a chance to enter and NOT be listed under the 200,000 number. The limit on family numbers? No limit. How far this might reach? No one wanted to really talk about in public. If you made into the German system and had a visa....bringing Mom and Dad would be simple....but what about your cousins? Your cousin's wife? Their extended family? You could be talking about one single guy, who wanted to bring 20 members of his family into Germany. Maybe you'd be talking about 25,000 in one single year.....maybe 75,000.....or perhaps even 300,000.
You can sense how it would be in the room and these number discussions being carried out. And if you brought these twenty relatives into the country.....might each of them have another twenty relatives extended out, and over ten years.....this might add up to three to five million? Well, that's the thing, you just didn't know what the numbers would add up to.
The problem of an ID? Well, yeah, that's another issue. What if X wanted to bring four nephews into Germany....with a marginal ID for each, and you found out two years later that none of the four are actual nephews...just fake nephews. What if X wanted to bring twelve members of the family in, and you found that the twelve were all fake and had paid X some fee.....like 60,000 Euro....to claim the fake family?
For the Greens, none of this doubt existed in their mind. They were obsessed with just keeping this vast door open. The 200,000 cap that the CSU created....looked nice on paper and made their voters in Bavaria happy....giving Merkel some breathing room. But in the real world....the 200,000 cap meant nothing, if this family open door was existing with no cap.
So here we are....a remaining problem from 2015 and the 'kids' running the candy store. Merkel can't resolve this or move forward.
Even with another election likely in February now.....the topic of the family immigration policy will still come back. You can't resolve this, unless you establish a cap on the family issue.
The other minor issue over this....if X had twenty family members he wanted to bring into Germany....would they all come to where X is located....is NRW (the northwestern part of Germany), where unemployment is significant now, and the communities overloaded already with refugees and migrants? Would you force the incoming family members to migrate to another state....say Bavaria? Would this be legal to force them into another region to settle? All problems, with no real room for discussion.
So, when you sit and see the public news crowd try to step around this topic and barely discuss it in front of the nation.....this is the core of the situation. It's a topic with no answer and no foundation.
Tuesday, November 21, 2017
How the SPD Screwed Up
This got brought up by Focus today, in that an internal effort was discussed by some upper-members of the SPD to open up some talks (not that it would go anywhere) about a coalition partnership with the CDU (since the alternate deal failed). This brief moment....where around thirty of the members thought it was worth discussing....quickly disappeared when party chief Schulz said 'no'. The suggestion by the Focus is that the 'no' rubbed these thirty folks the wrong way, and that Schulz might not have full support anymore.
It's amazing that the SPD holds some enormous cards right now, and if they did have a dozen-odd things that they wanted to push through....they could play all of the dozen and probably get Merkel and the CDU to agree to them....just to get the coalition and four more years.
But the other side of this coin is that the SPD probably doesn't have a full plate of projects that they'd like to achieve. Some folks might even go to suggest that the agenda direction of the SPD right now....is the weakest of the past forty years.
As for Schulz, and the way ahead? It's hard to say that he'll be around in for four years. They need to win heavily in several state elections and for 2018, that's doubtful.
In this case, it's surprising that you hold a great poker hand within your grasp and could demand major changes to benefit your voting public, and you won't play that hand at all. They could even walk into a negotiation and demand a coalition situation which forces Merkel to retire and I think that the CDU would grant their wish.
It's amazing that the SPD holds some enormous cards right now, and if they did have a dozen-odd things that they wanted to push through....they could play all of the dozen and probably get Merkel and the CDU to agree to them....just to get the coalition and four more years.
But the other side of this coin is that the SPD probably doesn't have a full plate of projects that they'd like to achieve. Some folks might even go to suggest that the agenda direction of the SPD right now....is the weakest of the past forty years.
As for Schulz, and the way ahead? It's hard to say that he'll be around in for four years. They need to win heavily in several state elections and for 2018, that's doubtful.
In this case, it's surprising that you hold a great poker hand within your grasp and could demand major changes to benefit your voting public, and you won't play that hand at all. They could even walk into a negotiation and demand a coalition situation which forces Merkel to retire and I think that the CDU would grant their wish.
The Car Story
This is one of the little items that might shock a few Germans....reported by Spiegel.
They say that there is a EU Commission planning to directly control gas usage of cars and smaller trucks....likely coming in 2020.
This would also lead onto some idea of speed controls and driving profiles being maintained.
You would think that it'd be fairly 'no' topic with most EU members, but Spiegel says that several states (without naming them) have given the thumbs up on this.
How all of this would work? The general suggestion is laid out that some type of GPS device would be used. No cost is really discussed, and one might guess that you'd be talking about at least a hundred Euro to buy the device. The next question would be how you download the data....protect the data, and store the data.
Radical? If you confront most German drivers on this.....they won't be that supportive. Why do you need to regulate drivers and their habits? Will this EU group start to get into the business of where you went on Sunday afternoon, or how fast you went? The odds of people disrupting their device or just saying 'no'?
The other little question to this.....will there be some vast empire created out of thin air, with hundreds of people per country trying to collect this data and monitor people? Who would pay for this little 'empire'? Not to take it that far....but why not also collect data on toilet flushing and note the flushing behavior or profile of everyone sitting on a toilet as well.?
They say that there is a EU Commission planning to directly control gas usage of cars and smaller trucks....likely coming in 2020.
This would also lead onto some idea of speed controls and driving profiles being maintained.
You would think that it'd be fairly 'no' topic with most EU members, but Spiegel says that several states (without naming them) have given the thumbs up on this.
How all of this would work? The general suggestion is laid out that some type of GPS device would be used. No cost is really discussed, and one might guess that you'd be talking about at least a hundred Euro to buy the device. The next question would be how you download the data....protect the data, and store the data.
Radical? If you confront most German drivers on this.....they won't be that supportive. Why do you need to regulate drivers and their habits? Will this EU group start to get into the business of where you went on Sunday afternoon, or how fast you went? The odds of people disrupting their device or just saying 'no'?
The other little question to this.....will there be some vast empire created out of thin air, with hundreds of people per country trying to collect this data and monitor people? Who would pay for this little 'empire'? Not to take it that far....but why not also collect data on toilet flushing and note the flushing behavior or profile of everyone sitting on a toilet as well.?
Political View: Germany
For September 2017 election results in Germany, the numbers are:
CDU-CSU 33 percent
SPD 21 percent
AfD 12.6 percent
Greens 8.9 percent
FDP 10.7 percent
Linke 8.6 percent
My view on the new election, if it comes? It's likely to be the end of February (in my humble opinion). For 75-percent of the voters....I think they will repeat and go right back to who they voted for in the first place. For the remaining quarter.....I think they might ask questions and vote differently.
Some considerations:
1. AfD. After the election....a couple of the AfD folks went 'south' and made up their own party....angering the top level of the party. If another election occurs....those 'escapees' will find themselves out of the Bundestag and finished with the AfD.
2. Some Green folks are disturbed over the inability of the party to join into the coalition.
3. Some FDP folks are asking questions over how they left the talks.
4. Some CDU voters are negative about Merkel and how this whole coalition thing went.
5. Some SPD folks are negative about Schulz and don't want him to run again.
So, my predictions:
CDU-CSU: 29 percent
SPD: 20 percent
Linke Party 10.5 percent
Greens: 7 percent
AfD: 15 percent
FDP: 16 percent
What does this mean for the next coalition episode? Crap.
It's hard to imagine any of this falling into place with the CDU leading the way, unless the SPD agreed to be the junior partner. Disenchantment with the two top parties? That's more or less the driving force of Germany in this new era. I don't think the two parties will top 50 percent and that really says alot about the change that has occurred.
CDU-CSU 33 percent
SPD 21 percent
AfD 12.6 percent
Greens 8.9 percent
FDP 10.7 percent
Linke 8.6 percent
My view on the new election, if it comes? It's likely to be the end of February (in my humble opinion). For 75-percent of the voters....I think they will repeat and go right back to who they voted for in the first place. For the remaining quarter.....I think they might ask questions and vote differently.
Some considerations:
1. AfD. After the election....a couple of the AfD folks went 'south' and made up their own party....angering the top level of the party. If another election occurs....those 'escapees' will find themselves out of the Bundestag and finished with the AfD.
2. Some Green folks are disturbed over the inability of the party to join into the coalition.
3. Some FDP folks are asking questions over how they left the talks.
4. Some CDU voters are negative about Merkel and how this whole coalition thing went.
5. Some SPD folks are negative about Schulz and don't want him to run again.
So, my predictions:
CDU-CSU: 29 percent
SPD: 20 percent
Linke Party 10.5 percent
Greens: 7 percent
AfD: 15 percent
FDP: 16 percent
What does this mean for the next coalition episode? Crap.
It's hard to imagine any of this falling into place with the CDU leading the way, unless the SPD agreed to be the junior partner. Disenchantment with the two top parties? That's more or less the driving force of Germany in this new era. I don't think the two parties will top 50 percent and that really says alot about the change that has occurred.
Monday, November 20, 2017
The Last 24 Hours after the Coalition Talks Failed
I'm simply an outsider viewing this whole political thing going on in Germany at present. It's amazing how the news media system.....TV and print media....are consumed with 'blame-articles' on how the 'Jamaica-Coalition' episode failed.
Blame upon Merkel, the CDU Party, the CSU Party, the Greens, Christian Lindner of the FDP, various personalities within the negotiation group, and even outsiders. They are on some tangent to let people know how people failed.
The problem here, is that in twelve-odd weeks, you will have another election and the idea here is that you need to blame someone, and have some corrective action in your voting results (maybe bringing more votes to the SPD or the CDU). I just don't see that occurring in a big way.
At best, I think the public has viewed the CDU actions and words, and will decide that some alternate party would be more appropriate. Some of the Greens might feel this way as well.
Creating a bigger mess? If you end up with a total of SPD and CDU votes of 45 to 50 percent.....yes, it will make this into a much bigger mess. In the old days, going back four years to sixty years.....the two parties would take a minimum of 60-percent.....sometimes even 80-percent.
The other issue is that the AfD might actually be able to get 15-percent of the vote (bettering their 12-percent of the last election).
The sad thing here is that the whole Christmas and new year period will be consumed in politics. Some folks will be working 60-hour weeks to help in the campaign process.
Blame upon Merkel, the CDU Party, the CSU Party, the Greens, Christian Lindner of the FDP, various personalities within the negotiation group, and even outsiders. They are on some tangent to let people know how people failed.
The problem here, is that in twelve-odd weeks, you will have another election and the idea here is that you need to blame someone, and have some corrective action in your voting results (maybe bringing more votes to the SPD or the CDU). I just don't see that occurring in a big way.
At best, I think the public has viewed the CDU actions and words, and will decide that some alternate party would be more appropriate. Some of the Greens might feel this way as well.
Creating a bigger mess? If you end up with a total of SPD and CDU votes of 45 to 50 percent.....yes, it will make this into a much bigger mess. In the old days, going back four years to sixty years.....the two parties would take a minimum of 60-percent.....sometimes even 80-percent.
The other issue is that the AfD might actually be able to get 15-percent of the vote (bettering their 12-percent of the last election).
The sad thing here is that the whole Christmas and new year period will be consumed in politics. Some folks will be working 60-hour weeks to help in the campaign process.
What Went Wrong?
In terms of the coalition failure, basically seven things.
1. Merkel charm has decreased in the last four years, even if journalists say otherwise.
2. You needed four parties to agree to an agenda, and that's never been done in German politics before.
3. This long discussion on tax relief (led by the FDP) failed because of the Greens.
4. Total SPD and CDU votes were about 55 percent, meaning the lowest total since WWII.
5. Immigration issues ate up a lot of coalition talks, with no clear outcome.
6. The news media hype just never amounted to much. They spent tons of time on Merkel and Schulz. The other parties got minimum face time.
7. It becomes obvious now that two elements of the Green Party exists. The public is amused by the divide of the two.
Another election? I doubt if it gets to a clear end.
1. Merkel charm has decreased in the last four years, even if journalists say otherwise.
2. You needed four parties to agree to an agenda, and that's never been done in German politics before.
3. This long discussion on tax relief (led by the FDP) failed because of the Greens.
4. Total SPD and CDU votes were about 55 percent, meaning the lowest total since WWII.
5. Immigration issues ate up a lot of coalition talks, with no clear outcome.
6. The news media hype just never amounted to much. They spent tons of time on Merkel and Schulz. The other parties got minimum face time.
7. It becomes obvious now that two elements of the Green Party exists. The public is amused by the divide of the two.
Another election? I doubt if it gets to a clear end.
Sunday, November 19, 2017
Defeckt
Back in the late 70's when I arrived in Germany...you might see a sign up somewhere...maybe twice a week, with the term 'defeckt' on it (meaning: it's broke).
It'd typically be a urinal in some public restroom, or some ticket-machine at the train station.
In the past five years, on average, I'll see a 'defeckt' sign up now about forty times a week. A logical guy would ask....are things breaking that much in Germany? Well....no. What you have is a very technology-drive society and thing simply break.
I'll walk into a bakery a couple times a week, and the coffee-espresso machine will have a sign up. Most bakeries and cafes don't buy their coffee machines anymore.....they lease them. And with that comes the little free maintenance deal.
I'll walk into some public bathroom with sensors on the urinals, and it'll have a sign up indicating 'defeckt'.
I'll use some ATM machine and discover it has a 'defeckt' sign.
I'll try to return bottles to some deposit machine at the grocery and find a 'defeckt' sign.
I'll find some ice cream freezer at the grocery empty....with a 'defeckt' sign indicating why it's empty.
The list goes on and on. Germans, I think....are getting used to this dilemma and don't whine much about it. Me? I'm looking at the amount of technology now part of daily life events, and wondering where this will go in thirty years.
It'd typically be a urinal in some public restroom, or some ticket-machine at the train station.
In the past five years, on average, I'll see a 'defeckt' sign up now about forty times a week. A logical guy would ask....are things breaking that much in Germany? Well....no. What you have is a very technology-drive society and thing simply break.
I'll walk into a bakery a couple times a week, and the coffee-espresso machine will have a sign up. Most bakeries and cafes don't buy their coffee machines anymore.....they lease them. And with that comes the little free maintenance deal.
I'll walk into some public bathroom with sensors on the urinals, and it'll have a sign up indicating 'defeckt'.
I'll use some ATM machine and discover it has a 'defeckt' sign.
I'll try to return bottles to some deposit machine at the grocery and find a 'defeckt' sign.
I'll find some ice cream freezer at the grocery empty....with a 'defeckt' sign indicating why it's empty.
The list goes on and on. Germans, I think....are getting used to this dilemma and don't whine much about it. Me? I'm looking at the amount of technology now part of daily life events, and wondering where this will go in thirty years.
Thursday, November 16, 2017
The Champagne Topic
I noticed this got brought up in the news about two weeks ago.
There is a class-action lawsuit starting up out of Quebec, Canada. The issue? Sunwing airlines offer this flight deal to Cuba (don't ask why). So they kinda say in the advertising that there's going to be a cup or glass of Champagne involved.
For those who aren't into Champagne....it's a French-product from a particular region of France. If you make anywhere else (even 10 miles outside of this Champagne-identified zone....it's Sparkling Wine.
Yep....same stuff.
So here's the thing....you can buy Sparkling Wine for a cheaper price than Champagne.
In this airline case.....they served up Sparkling Wine, and some flyer noted the difference. He says it's just not right and wants to be compensated for what he bought. The fact that the airline uttered the phrase "Champagne service" in the advertising? Well....it'll hurt the case in court.
I sat and pondered over this. Personally, I just don't have a taste for Champagne. My wife will pull out about three bottles of the stuff per year, and force me to sip the stuff. I really can't stand it. On my preferred list of drink items? I'd probably drink Tab or Dr Pepper, before I'd drink Champagne.
This need to pump up customers over Champagne? Out of a hundred folks....the minute you mention free Champagne....I would guess that 70-percent would get all hyped up and feel 'special' when served. If you mentioned later it was Sparkling Wine? They'd be all negative. Same stuff though.
There is a class-action lawsuit starting up out of Quebec, Canada. The issue? Sunwing airlines offer this flight deal to Cuba (don't ask why). So they kinda say in the advertising that there's going to be a cup or glass of Champagne involved.
For those who aren't into Champagne....it's a French-product from a particular region of France. If you make anywhere else (even 10 miles outside of this Champagne-identified zone....it's Sparkling Wine.
Yep....same stuff.
So here's the thing....you can buy Sparkling Wine for a cheaper price than Champagne.
In this airline case.....they served up Sparkling Wine, and some flyer noted the difference. He says it's just not right and wants to be compensated for what he bought. The fact that the airline uttered the phrase "Champagne service" in the advertising? Well....it'll hurt the case in court.
I sat and pondered over this. Personally, I just don't have a taste for Champagne. My wife will pull out about three bottles of the stuff per year, and force me to sip the stuff. I really can't stand it. On my preferred list of drink items? I'd probably drink Tab or Dr Pepper, before I'd drink Champagne.
This need to pump up customers over Champagne? Out of a hundred folks....the minute you mention free Champagne....I would guess that 70-percent would get all hyped up and feel 'special' when served. If you mentioned later it was Sparkling Wine? They'd be all negative. Same stuff though.
Friday, November 10, 2017
Beer and Summer
In most countries (Denmark, Netherlands, Austria, Germany, etc), you will find tables on the side of the street with a dozen types of beer available.
You sit for a while....cooling off or pausing from the walk, and sip through a decent beer.
In most every town that I've come to travel through, I've found another beer to taste. Some are unique.....some are 'cheap' (without any taste....and some are worthy of remembering.
Around mid-October, beer gardens start to shut down and you have this long 'dry' spell (until almost early April), and then all heck breaks loose as everyone tries to get their operation back into full-swing.
If you've never been to a beergarten.....you ought to try it.
Tuesday, November 7, 2017
Blauer Brief
The 'Blauer Brief' (the blue letter) is a German expression typically used by teenagers.
After you've screwed up enough with the teachers....you will get a letter which has to be seen and read by the parents, and signed.
Where does the expression come from? This is one of those curious things. If you go back about two-hundred years ago....regional German authorities would want to get your attention and they'd send you a document which you had to sign and return (noting that you'd been warned).
The material used for this act? Usually scrap clothing (blue in nature). You (as the authority) would not have a stock of paper, so clothing was the natural alternate means. You'd write the document on the clothing.
The other use of the term 'Blauer Brief' would be the termination notice by a company to an employee. So if your neighbor mentions something in the conversation and Blauer Brief comes up....it's a pretty negative thing. Same for a kid bringing up the topic.
After you've screwed up enough with the teachers....you will get a letter which has to be seen and read by the parents, and signed.
Where does the expression come from? This is one of those curious things. If you go back about two-hundred years ago....regional German authorities would want to get your attention and they'd send you a document which you had to sign and return (noting that you'd been warned).
The material used for this act? Usually scrap clothing (blue in nature). You (as the authority) would not have a stock of paper, so clothing was the natural alternate means. You'd write the document on the clothing.
The other use of the term 'Blauer Brief' would be the termination notice by a company to an employee. So if your neighbor mentions something in the conversation and Blauer Brief comes up....it's a pretty negative thing. Same for a kid bringing up the topic.
Saturday, November 4, 2017
German Phone Booths
In the 1990s as cellphones came along, you started to notice the public booths disappearing.
I would take a guess today.....throughout the whole city of Wiesbaden, there's probably only fifty of these still left. At best, there might be five or six calls a week now made from these. In another ten years, I expect all of them to be gone.
If you had suggested back in 1985 that they'd all rapidly disappear, most Germans would have laughed.
Friday, November 3, 2017
Ten Things Over German Bars
This is my list of ten things that you ought respect or grasp about German bars in general (remember, I'm an American):
1. Quiet, small-town German bars tend to be a place where you walk in and observe three tables occupied by four older guys each....playing cards....and mostly hiding out from their wives. They tend to drink beer only. The only background noise might be a TV on with a soccer game underway. Two or three women will be in the corner....mostly discussing gossip, failed marriages, or personal problems.
2. Most German pubs will offer six to ten variations of beer, with one being non-alcoholic. The most popular brand you will come across is Bitburger (a marginal two-star beer on my scale). Beer from the tap always seems to come across with a better taste (at least I think so). Newer establishments will offer wine. Straight shots of Bourbon and whiskey are always possible. Cocktails? Most German bartenders will just look at you and ask if you know where you are.
3. Most German bars don't sell food. If they do sell food...you need to be suspicious. And if you find a place that does great food and great beer....you need to stick with them.
4. If you had some high quality standards with toilets and sanitary conditions....well, don't go overboard with German pubs. The owner probably puts a mop to the floor weekly....ensures paper towels are in the machine, and hopefully has some liquid soap to dispense.
5. The old guys will tell you of the dozens of pubs and gasthauses that used to exist in their local area, and today they've all dwindled down to five or six. Part of this is due to stronger DWI-laws, and part is due to guys fixing up their patio or basement 'men-cave' for off-time. Some of this also revolves around men changing their drinking habits and sipping less beer (more wine).
6. Picking up on women at a German bar? No. The older guys, if you bring up this topic....will just start laughing.
7. Beer gardens? A decent German pub will have an area set up around the back, or maybe in the front of the building for spring and summer beer consumption. If the waitress is attentive and does check occasionally on empty steins, you need to remember that on the tip-business. In the heat of the day? My advice is that you need to order a bottle of water to hydrate yourself prior to the beer consumption. The worst thing to do on a hot day is to consumer vast quantities of German beer while thirsty.
8. Unlike Irish pubs where strangers enter and want to tell you their life story....Germans don't get very chatty with strangers. You need to accept that. On the list of topics to avoid with a German? American politics, Bush, Trump, WW II movies, Hitler, and anything British.
9. Pool tables? If you walk into a hundred small-town pubs in Germany....I'd take a guess that fewer than four will have pool tables. It's just not something that goes hand-in-hand with German beer drinking.
10. Older German pub establishments will still have a slot machine around in the back of the place. Over the past twenty years, I'd take a guess that most pubs have terminated the slot machine gimmick. If you stand and play a hundred Euro over two hours....you can be fairly assured to walk out with nothing in your hand.
1. Quiet, small-town German bars tend to be a place where you walk in and observe three tables occupied by four older guys each....playing cards....and mostly hiding out from their wives. They tend to drink beer only. The only background noise might be a TV on with a soccer game underway. Two or three women will be in the corner....mostly discussing gossip, failed marriages, or personal problems.
2. Most German pubs will offer six to ten variations of beer, with one being non-alcoholic. The most popular brand you will come across is Bitburger (a marginal two-star beer on my scale). Beer from the tap always seems to come across with a better taste (at least I think so). Newer establishments will offer wine. Straight shots of Bourbon and whiskey are always possible. Cocktails? Most German bartenders will just look at you and ask if you know where you are.
3. Most German bars don't sell food. If they do sell food...you need to be suspicious. And if you find a place that does great food and great beer....you need to stick with them.
4. If you had some high quality standards with toilets and sanitary conditions....well, don't go overboard with German pubs. The owner probably puts a mop to the floor weekly....ensures paper towels are in the machine, and hopefully has some liquid soap to dispense.
5. The old guys will tell you of the dozens of pubs and gasthauses that used to exist in their local area, and today they've all dwindled down to five or six. Part of this is due to stronger DWI-laws, and part is due to guys fixing up their patio or basement 'men-cave' for off-time. Some of this also revolves around men changing their drinking habits and sipping less beer (more wine).
6. Picking up on women at a German bar? No. The older guys, if you bring up this topic....will just start laughing.
7. Beer gardens? A decent German pub will have an area set up around the back, or maybe in the front of the building for spring and summer beer consumption. If the waitress is attentive and does check occasionally on empty steins, you need to remember that on the tip-business. In the heat of the day? My advice is that you need to order a bottle of water to hydrate yourself prior to the beer consumption. The worst thing to do on a hot day is to consumer vast quantities of German beer while thirsty.
8. Unlike Irish pubs where strangers enter and want to tell you their life story....Germans don't get very chatty with strangers. You need to accept that. On the list of topics to avoid with a German? American politics, Bush, Trump, WW II movies, Hitler, and anything British.
9. Pool tables? If you walk into a hundred small-town pubs in Germany....I'd take a guess that fewer than four will have pool tables. It's just not something that goes hand-in-hand with German beer drinking.
10. Older German pub establishments will still have a slot machine around in the back of the place. Over the past twenty years, I'd take a guess that most pubs have terminated the slot machine gimmick. If you stand and play a hundred Euro over two hours....you can be fairly assured to walk out with nothing in your hand.
Wednesday, November 1, 2017
A Night at the Opera: The Beginning of the Red Army Faction
Few Germans grasp this. Few German journalists ever chat about this. Few German politicians want to engage in chat forums on the topic. So, this is one of those oddball historical essays that I occasionally tell.
On the evening of the 2nd of June, 1967....the Red Army Faction, or the Baader-Meinhof Gang episode started up.
No one ever says why this decision was made, but the Shah of Iran decided to make a trip to West Berlin. It was publicized and known at least a week or two prior to the visit. If you'd asked most working class Germans to even identify Mohammad Reza Pahlavi....I doubt if more than one-percent could have picked out his picture and suggested his significance in the world. With the intellectual crowd via the German university system? I would take a guess that fifty-percent of them could identify him and his position in the world.
His folks decided that making attending a performance of Mozart's Magic Flute at the Deutsche Opera House in West-Berlin was a safe bet. This attendance was also publicized ahead of time. You can go back and ask why....but today, no says much over this.
So, there's this university student there as part of this protest group. The guy....Benno Ohnesorg.
At the time, Benno was 26 years old. His studies area Oddly, German language and 'romance' writing. He would have been a writer at the end of this educational experience.
A protest was organized there at the Opera House, and Benno was to attend as a protester. It should be noted, this was the first ever protest that he'd ever attended.
At some point in the Flute opera deal....the Shah's secret police bodyguards got into some tirade with the anti-Shah folks, and some pro-Shah folks were in the mix as well. How many pro-Shah Iranians lived in West Berlin? Well, no one has ever picked up this topic and it's hard to say if these were real Iranian pro-Shah people or fake Iranian pro-Shah people.
The anti-Shah people? Video of the protest that night is almost impossible to find. Images suggest some folks looking Arab-like, but most of the anti-Shah people....were German university students. Why were they anti-Shah? They appear to have gotten some message that the Shah was 'evil', and if you asked them to detail their anti-Shah stance....I doubt if you would have gotten more than a 3x5 card of info on this necessity for the demonstration.
So, things got violent at this protest....fairly quick. German cops show up.....in force.
Somewhere in a sidestreet area, along Krumme Strasse (66)....this kid Ohnesorg was exiting the mess. Had he turned west on Bismark Strasse....a one-minute walk would have put you at the subway station, and he would have escaped off into the night, and none of this Red Army thing would have mattered.
But there on Krumme Strasse....Ohnesorg got shot by a plain-clothing cop...Karl-Heinz Kurras. The ambulance got called....taking a dead Ohnesorg down to the hospital....there was nothing much that they could do for him.
Authorities investigate Kurras....there's a trial....and an acquittal (roughly five months later).
Who was Kurras? For 30 years....just a cop.
Around 2009, it was figured out via document studies from the East German secret police (Stasi)....that he was a paid collaborator with them. There's nothing in the files to say that he was ordered to shoot someone....just that he had connections to the Stasi.
The odds of this being a planned objective of the Stasi? It's just one of those odd events that surprises you years later, and you have to wonder if Ohnesorg was just selected at random to be shot and this triggers massive anger among the university crowd of Germany.
What happens in the next six months after this event is a massive show of frustration among university students and martyr status given to Ohnesorg ends up with statue, next to the Opera House.
Without the Shah's attendance of the opera, there is no dead Ohnesorg, no suggested involvement of the Stasi, and potentially no start up of the Baader Meinhof Gang.
On the evening of the 2nd of June, 1967....the Red Army Faction, or the Baader-Meinhof Gang episode started up.
No one ever says why this decision was made, but the Shah of Iran decided to make a trip to West Berlin. It was publicized and known at least a week or two prior to the visit. If you'd asked most working class Germans to even identify Mohammad Reza Pahlavi....I doubt if more than one-percent could have picked out his picture and suggested his significance in the world. With the intellectual crowd via the German university system? I would take a guess that fifty-percent of them could identify him and his position in the world.
His folks decided that making attending a performance of Mozart's Magic Flute at the Deutsche Opera House in West-Berlin was a safe bet. This attendance was also publicized ahead of time. You can go back and ask why....but today, no says much over this.
So, there's this university student there as part of this protest group. The guy....Benno Ohnesorg.
At the time, Benno was 26 years old. His studies area Oddly, German language and 'romance' writing. He would have been a writer at the end of this educational experience.
A protest was organized there at the Opera House, and Benno was to attend as a protester. It should be noted, this was the first ever protest that he'd ever attended.
At some point in the Flute opera deal....the Shah's secret police bodyguards got into some tirade with the anti-Shah folks, and some pro-Shah folks were in the mix as well. How many pro-Shah Iranians lived in West Berlin? Well, no one has ever picked up this topic and it's hard to say if these were real Iranian pro-Shah people or fake Iranian pro-Shah people.
The anti-Shah people? Video of the protest that night is almost impossible to find. Images suggest some folks looking Arab-like, but most of the anti-Shah people....were German university students. Why were they anti-Shah? They appear to have gotten some message that the Shah was 'evil', and if you asked them to detail their anti-Shah stance....I doubt if you would have gotten more than a 3x5 card of info on this necessity for the demonstration.
So, things got violent at this protest....fairly quick. German cops show up.....in force.
Somewhere in a sidestreet area, along Krumme Strasse (66)....this kid Ohnesorg was exiting the mess. Had he turned west on Bismark Strasse....a one-minute walk would have put you at the subway station, and he would have escaped off into the night, and none of this Red Army thing would have mattered.
But there on Krumme Strasse....Ohnesorg got shot by a plain-clothing cop...Karl-Heinz Kurras. The ambulance got called....taking a dead Ohnesorg down to the hospital....there was nothing much that they could do for him.
Authorities investigate Kurras....there's a trial....and an acquittal (roughly five months later).
Who was Kurras? For 30 years....just a cop.
Around 2009, it was figured out via document studies from the East German secret police (Stasi)....that he was a paid collaborator with them. There's nothing in the files to say that he was ordered to shoot someone....just that he had connections to the Stasi.
The odds of this being a planned objective of the Stasi? It's just one of those odd events that surprises you years later, and you have to wonder if Ohnesorg was just selected at random to be shot and this triggers massive anger among the university crowd of Germany.
What happens in the next six months after this event is a massive show of frustration among university students and martyr status given to Ohnesorg ends up with statue, next to the Opera House.
Without the Shah's attendance of the opera, there is no dead Ohnesorg, no suggested involvement of the Stasi, and potentially no start up of the Baader Meinhof Gang.
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