For September 2017 election results in Germany, the numbers are:
CDU-CSU 33 percent
SPD 21 percent
AfD 12.6 percent
Greens 8.9 percent
FDP 10.7 percent
Linke 8.6 percent
My view on the new election, if it comes? It's likely to be the end of February (in my humble opinion). For 75-percent of the voters....I think they will repeat and go right back to who they voted for in the first place. For the remaining quarter.....I think they might ask questions and vote differently.
Some considerations:
1. AfD. After the election....a couple of the AfD folks went 'south' and made up their own party....angering the top level of the party. If another election occurs....those 'escapees' will find themselves out of the Bundestag and finished with the AfD.
2. Some Green folks are disturbed over the inability of the party to join into the coalition.
3. Some FDP folks are asking questions over how they left the talks.
4. Some CDU voters are negative about Merkel and how this whole coalition thing went.
5. Some SPD folks are negative about Schulz and don't want him to run again.
So, my predictions:
CDU-CSU: 29 percent
SPD: 20 percent
Linke Party 10.5 percent
Greens: 7 percent
AfD: 15 percent
FDP: 16 percent
What does this mean for the next coalition episode? Crap.
It's hard to imagine any of this falling into place with the CDU leading the way, unless the SPD agreed to be the junior partner. Disenchantment with the two top parties? That's more or less the driving force of Germany in this new era. I don't think the two parties will top 50 percent and that really says alot about the change that has occurred.
2 comments:
15% for AFD sounds great but it is also a bit on a wishful side.
Back six months ago, saying they'd get 12-percent in the election was wishful as well. They made the 12-percent. Their problem now is that a few of their elected folks have 'wandered' off to make up another party....triggering some confusion with voters. If one was a bit frustrated with the CDU or SPD...you basically have four alternate choices to make. I think this failed coalition episode will pull hard on some Germans to vote an alternate way.
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