The Coalition Solution

In the past twenty-four hours, a fair number of things have occurred, which might suggest the 2nd election idea in Germany will not be necessary.

As much as the top level of the SPD has said 'no' in public of joining a coalition with the CDU....some members are pressing hard to force a meeting and a discussion.

The Frankfurt Rundschau (major majors source in Hessen) had an open letter by two major political figures (Gesine Schwan and Wolfgang Thierse).....suggesting a coalition between the CDU, the SPD, and Greens.

Why the necessity of the Greens?  I think they are suggesting that the CSU (the Bavarians) be excluded from this partnership.

Why press?  Well, there's this feeling now that not only will the CDU see lesser numbers in another election....but the SPD as well, and that means a fair number of folks in Berlin will have to pack up and go home.

What is suggested in this open letter? 

These two suggest a new social justice policy.  They want the German welfare program (Hartz IV) reformed.  They aren't say exactly how it'd look, but they indicate that the poverty-like status brewing in Germany since Hartz IV came along....is not a good idea.  They also suggest a state-sponsored program for affordable housing to be built (something that the CDU hasn't been eager to touch).

The second big area that the two suggest is that they see a need to get Europe (probably the EU as well) onboard to one central theme of  refugee/immigration policy....bringing all of the EU to one view.  That would mean the Merkel-open door was to become an EU theme, and that various countries would be forced to accept that.

I sat and pondered upon this development, and came to six observations.

1.  First, excluding the CSU (the Bavarians) and bringing in the Greens....has a heavy payment attachment.  Bavaria is slated to have an election in the spring, if this exclusion were to occur, there would be massive anger and hostility brewing for the CSU chances in the state election.  You could carve off ten-percent of the normal voting pattern.  This would also push the CSU into criticizing the Merkel government, and it'd be a continual theme for four years. 

2.  Reforming Hartz IV (the welfare program)?  For a decade, it's been obvious that the program had issues, but to resolve this.....you'd have to probably pump the fund up by thirty-percent minimum (several billion Euro).  They would waste months arguing how the reform would be done and the level of unfairness would be an open political topic with the public.  Where would the money come from?  Well....that's not mentioned by the SPD, nor do they care.  For the CDU, it ought to matter. More taxation would have to occur. 

3.  The amount of desperation here for Merkel, the CDU, and the SPD?  Massive.  If a second election were forced....both likely lose 10-percent of their vote collection from September.  It might actually create a more difficult coalition-building effort, and maybe even a 3rd election.  So they are all desperate in a way to avoid the 2nd election idea.

4.  This idea of the affordable housing idea and making the government sponsor the construction of these apartments?  If you picked out the top ten urbanized areas in Germany and ran such a program (I'm guessing the SPD would actually want thirty cities/areas included but I'll limit this to ten).....then we are talking about Hamburg, Essen, Berlin, Frankfurt, etc.  All of these, except Munich.....tend to vote SPD heavily.  The cost for just ten regions?  It'd have to be in the twenty-five billion EU range over four years.  Where would the money come from?  Well....more taxation.  All of this construction going on?  It would jump-start the economy to some degree (for four years) and increase jobs (the one big positive). 

5.  The reaction by the FDP?  All the negatives that they had with the Green agenda in the coalition talks?  They would readily be proven correct.  Every single month....the FDP would be on the criticism angle, and likely draw a quarter of the CDU voters in four years to their agenda.  In some ways, Merkel would be destroying the CDU core of voters.

6.  Finally, I come to this odd theme of bringing the German view of immigration to the EU, and forcing every member to accept refugees.  I think in some ways....it'd eventually disrupt the EU.  At least six nations of the EU just won't see this as a practical or acceptable change.  Exporting this policy that has now been questioned across most of German society?  I think a fair number of CDU and SPD voters would look upon this and shake their heads. 

In the end, Merkel will accept virtually any kind of coalition possible.....to avoid the 2nd election.  In a way, this is creating a Frankenstein-like monster for the 2021 national election, and I seriously doubt that the national total for the SPD and CDU parties will total more than 45-percent in that election.  If you think this coalition solution resolved anything....it really just made things really difficult in the future.