Remember, I'm not a German, nor do I have any German view of the September election. I'm a guest and simply view it as an outsider.
1. It was the fewest number of votes for the CDU (Merkel's party) and the SPD....since the war. Combined, 53-percent of the vote. Disenchantment over the two significant parties? That's really a theme that you notice over the past couple of years. And here's the project problem for 2021 and 2025 (the likely two next German elections)....it's very likely that they will go below 50-percent, and might even have trouble reaching 45-percent in the 2025 election.
2. The "mutti-problem"? As much as Merkel, her chief supporters in the CDU, and the journalists hype her staying on and being Chancellor in this next government.....if you go and talk to working class people...they want a change. They aren't talking about getting Schulz from the SPD.....but just some kinda change. Merkel probably needs to retire, but the CDU just doesn't have someone with the public appeal to replace her.
3. The affect of this long dragged-out coalition-building mess on the EU? Merkel and the coalition (CDU-CSU-SPD) over the past four years have been an anchor for the EU and it's progress. You get the impression that some folks in the EU are a bit worried because they need this formulated group to carry them onto the next level. Also, they might be worried over the 2019 EU general election across Europe, if this gets any worse.
4. The idea of just giving up on this coalition effort, and having a second election? Oh boy....I think the CDU and SPD leadership woke up two weeks ago when the FDP walked out of the coalition talks, and the two parties realized that they have lost some voters. Journalists are careful how the polls are done and try to suggest that the FDP and AfD are the ones who lost supporters. I would suggest, across working-class German lines....maybe both the CDU and SPD parties lost two or three points off their September vote, and going back to another election.....is just NOT an option.
5. If you go back to March of last year (2016), there was this big moment when things could have created a new dynamic. The Pfalz state election came up, and everyone felt that the CDU candidate....Klockner....would win, and go on to be the natural 2017 Merkel replacement. Well...Klockner lost by half-a-percent. That 100,000 vote problem changed the whole dynamics of this election...denying the CDU a chance to get a fresh face into the national election. Klockner had the appeal for a brief while.....to replace Merkel.
6. The one odd feature of the campaign period....was almost no real discussion over migration and immigration. Well, when they got into the coalition-building talks (CDU-CSU, Greens and FDP)....there's this problem because the Greens want to rig the door to be open and to have a significant path for people to enter. The FDP wanted a door that closed, and there had to be limits. It was obvious that this would never work for a coalition, because neither were going to give up on their situation. Under this new dynamic of the CDU-CSU and SPD parties forming the next coalition? There will be some open-door situation. As much as it alienates working-class Germans who might vote for either of the parties....the leadership of the two parties don't care. It's simply giving a chance for the AfD to survive on and probably take another two percent in the next election.
7. Schulz. For the SPD, he is a pro-EU guy and hypes the EU in almost every fourth-sentence that he delivers publicly. Beyond that, there's just not much in Schulz that attracts working-class Germans (my humble opinion). My guess is that he will remain around and be part of the cabinet in the new Merkel government (vice-Chancellor probably), and try to be the big-cog in the 2021 election. But I don't see the SPD getting more than 20-percent in the next election, and they really need to go and find a replacement.
8. The AfD. In the month after the election....the AfD, because of people leaving to form their own parties....it probably slipped a notch and lost some public appeal. The basic issue of immigration? It remains. The odds of the new CDU-CSU-SPD government fixing migration and immigration? Pretty much zero. So I think the AfD will be around for four years and have time to develop other policies and strategies.
9. Having another vote today? Polls say various things. I would suggest that working-class Germans would like to have an entire second vote today, and that 10-percent of the people who voted for the SPD or CDU-CSU.....would go and vote in a different way. I would offer the observation that another vote might make the coalition-building exercise even a lesser chance of success.
10. Finally, the idea of a minority government. There are a couple of countries in Europe that run with this. Should this SPD-CDU coalition exercise fail....it's either this or have another election. Most believe it leaves a weak government in place and creates more tension. If you look eight years down the road, I suspect this will be the only way that the German government will be able to function. Both major parties are at the peak of their public attraction. It won't be positive for the EU, or for neighboring countries.
No comments:
Post a Comment