Political Update: 24 November

In the last 24 hours, there's been a fair effort to bring the top leadership of the SPD Party to the coalition table with the CDU to form a new government.  The odds that this will happen?  You can figure talks will now occur, and that three weeks will be required to work out the various issues.  The suggestion that the SPD might want the Greens involved, and to dislodge the CSU from the CDU?  I think it's wishful thinking and simply won't occur.

For the two parties, it's obvious now that the high-point of the September election is best they can achieve, and if a second election were to occur (now less likely)....they'd both see lesser numbers.

My likely scenario if this coalition episode fails and the minority government idea fails?  We'd go to a second election in roughly three months.

Between both the CDU-CSU machine and the SPD....I don't think they can carry more than 50-percent of the vote.  You'd likely see the CDU-CSU folks end up with 28-percent, and the SPD near 20-percent.  This would mean that another party (either the FDP or Greens) would have to join as a partner and this would make the whole process even more complicated.

The potential affect if the CDU-CSU Party were to only take 25-percent?  It'd make it near impossible for a coalition to occur, and you'd definitely see a minority government episode going into place, for a four-year period....thus making this the weakest German government since WW II. 

As for Merkel?  I think she's drawing up her resignation letter, and discussing the idea of retirement. If not now....then in twelve months.  The CDU folks now need to move on.....new blood....new direction.

The same is likely to occur with the SPD Party, and I think Schulz is looking at two years before he's forced to retire, and move on.

As for how this all plays out with BREXIT?  A strong finish with Merkel in charge....would have put the EU into a better position.  Without a strong figure at the table, the EU is not that great.  Don't worry....the Brits will still have to pay down a fair sum of money to get their 'golden-agreement' but it probably will be 30-to-40 percent less than the massive sum discussed a year ago.

As for 2021's next German election?  Well....it now starts to really get interesting on how the public sees this marginal government, and their achievements (or lack of achievements).  It may be four years of limited actions, and mostly just political chatter.