This Topic of Article 81

Deep into the German news today and centered on this effort to prevent another election from occurring, is this chat about Article 81 of the Basic Law (German Constitution).

The brief wording of the article basically says that in a situation where the Bundestag is not dissolved (thus requiring an election)....the Federal President (Frank Walter Steinmier, SPD), MAY declare a state of legislative emergency.

This 'state period' means that the government would continue to operate, with a minority government.  The party with the most votes....automatically has the the government mandate.

It was designed in some ways for a temporary period....say a couple of months, in a period of 'emergency' (undefined in the Constitution). 

No one is saying this is a good solution or such.  It's a sort of band-aid to get by for a period of months probably (certainly not for four years).

I suspect a lot of political folks in Berlin are now wondering how a second election would turn out, and if both major parties (CDU and SPD) would be heavily punished if a second election were to occur.  Might the two parties get less than fifty percent of the vote combined?  Yes, that's a major possibility....thus showing a major weakness in the government, and the future.

One might guess that Steinmier sees this as a year-long period to cool off the political flame, and give some time for the parties to repair their public appeal.

The decision on the Article 81 approach?  One might see this announced by Monday of next week....otherwise, it'll be an announcement for a new election coming up shortly.

The actual wording of Article 81?

"Legislative emergency 

 (1) If, in the circumstances described in Article 68, the Bundestag is not dissolved, the Federal President, at the request of the Federal Government and with the consent of the Bundesrat, may declare a state of legislative emergency with respect to a bill, if the Bundestag rejects the bill although the Federal Government has declared it to be urgent. The same shall apply if a bill has been rejected although the Federal Chancellor had combined it with a motion under Article 68. 

(2) If, after a state of legislative emergency has been declared, the Bundestag again rejects the bill or adopts it in a version the Federal Government declares unacceptable, the bill shall be deemed to have become law to the extent that it receives the consent of the Bundesrat. The same shall apply if the Bundestag does not pass the bill within four weeks after it is reintroduced. 

(3) During the term of office of a Federal Chancellor, any other bill rejected by the Bundestag may become law in accordance with paragraphs (1) and (2) of this Article within a period of six months after the first declaration of a state of legislative emergency. After the expiration of this period, no further declaration of a state of legislative emergency may be made during the term of office of the same Federal Chancellor. 

(4) This Basic Law may neither be amended nor abrogated nor suspended in whole or in part by a law enacted pursuant to paragraph (2) of this Article."

The odd side to this story?  Typically, the German President's job is just to meet and greet folks, conduct ceremonies, and travel in the interest of the nation.  It's not to run the Bundestag, which is where Article 81 is leading the discussion.  Steinmier's work probably would double for this period. 

Whoever wrote Article 81 originally....probably did not have this scenario in their mind....otherwise, it would have added some more features and laid out a more concrete path. 

My last observation?  I think if this is pulled out and used....you can probably anticipate some kind of election announcement by the end of 2019.  They might be able to survive out twelve months with this sort of 'fix', and convince the public for that period that things are fine. 

Oddly, the topic of immigration (the cap, the allowing of family members to enter)?  Well....yeah, that's a funny thing.  This would halt that entire discussion and nothing over immigration or asylum would likely occur.  Some Germans would sit there and just laugh about the effort to avoid this entire topic and how Article 81 gave the government a chance to skip this mess.