Sunday, May 14, 2023

Five Opinions About the Ukraine-Russia War

 1.  A lot of this failure on the Russian side, if you really sit down and look over battles, video, and descriptions....goes back to poor training and just throwing marginally-capable guys at a situation (much similar to WW II tactics), and figuring that the tank situation would be a 'catapult' to victories.  

2.  How I now believe the end will come?  I think that the Wagner Group (led by Prigozhen) will start to engage upon the Russian military, and some type of weird civil conflict will start up.....triggering Russian troops on the field in Ukraine to leave and return to Russian territory.  Wouldn't even shock me if this civil conflict lasted six to eight weeks....with Putin in some bunker halfway to Siberia, and trying to figure who is fighting who.

3.  Rebuilding Russia's structure (helicopters, artillery, APCs, tanks)?   You'd be looking at a level of cost where all normal infrastructure  (bridges, streets, government buildings) will be zeroed out for a minimum of ten years....maybe even twenty.  The country itself will be left in a dilapidated state of existence, and the smart guys simply exiting the country for better opportunities. 

4.  I think the vast number of Russians who watch the nightly news discussions via state TV....do honestly believe Nazis in the Ukraine are the real issue here.  

5.  Natural gas service to Germany being restored?  In this generation (from now to 20 years)?  No.  Eventually, some type of pipeline service will occur and Germans will accept 'some' sales.  It'll never go back to the level before 2022.  

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