Wednesday, June 5, 2019

Have New Wildcards Developed for a German National Election?

Since the election in the fall of 2017....several factors have developed that may radically change voting results and the future stability of the country.  So I'll lay out this theory of mine, and how the dramatics may fall into place.

First, social media, fake news, unofficial commentary via YouTube....are now a direct conduit to youth-voting.  Of the roughly six-million Germans in the age group of 18-to-24, I would say that you could easily turn around four million of those votes easily away from the SPD and CDU Parties.  Yes, in some way.....it's a block of voters.

They could easily shift to the Green Party, or possibly become an fair sized block of voters for a new creation of a political party.  With four-million, you could be talking about 8-percent of a swing vote or a new party that has to be reckoned with. 

Second, if these voters did walk away from the CDU and SPD.....it means that those two, who used to take 60 to 70 percent of the national vote combined....would be highly weakened, and might only be able to mount a 35 to 40 percent situation in total national votes.  It means a highly weakened structure.

Third, this first group of youthful voters?  They aren't' the only possible group being created.  It is conceivable, with social media in full blast mode....might be able to combine all of the Hartz IV crowd (the welfare recipients of Germany) and welfare pensioners (those making marginal retirement to survive).  In this case?  It's around 12-percent of the German public.  You could subtract them as well....from the CDU and SPD rolls.  These welfare group would be able to communicate and demand changes to the structure.....or shift to a fringe party who would cooperate. 

You could be talking about one-quarter of German voters in play, and potentially weakening the national structure enough to bring in radical economic policies, enormous shifts on environmental platforms, and even set into play recessions/job losses.

What's the biggest weakness now to the two national 'big-parties'?  All those promises made over the years and most of promises never materialized or got delivered.  With social media and YouTube.....you can discuss this at length, and blame both the CDU and SPD for 'failures'.  The youth of Germany want the promises delivered, or they have the power to shift their votes.

I might go at this point and suggest the next decade being a rather hectic period, with national politics triggering some people to evaluate their economic survival, taxable situation, and future.  Just having this youthful group as a major force in government policy is one thing....but if you ended up with the bulk of the welfare class in Germany making radical demands and turning themselves into a political party that has to be reckoned with....it only deepens the political spectrum.

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