Last night, ZDF (one of Germany's public TV networks) led off at 8:15 PM with a docu-news piece which went to statistical data, conversations with PhD professors, mayors of significant German cities, and then basically laid out the story that crime associated with migrants is not a big deal. I sat and watched the whole piece, and there were several things which are absolutely factual.
My observations:
1. Statistical data across Germany generally says most categories of crime are 'down' (less in terms of numbers). The curious way that the story is told is that they take mostly all data columns from 2000 to today. There was a peak period around 2013/2014, and dramatic turns after that....at least in most categories of crime.
The other side of this story, which they carefully avoided.....a lot of people who are over the age of fifty.....remember a period of a lot less crime (prior to 1990)....with it not mattering if you were talking West Germany or East Germany (the old DDR). The journalists and political folks avoid those statistical columns or part of the story.
2. You can't really associate most crimes with being either migrant-committed, German-committed, or EU-resident-committed.....unless you catch the guy in the act, or notch some type of 'funny' accent. So you could have forty break-in's of apartments in March within the city of Mainz, and there is NO way of associating it to migrants, Germans or EU'ers.
3. If crime is less.....why hire more police? That's the curious thing....most all political parties jumped into this 'more' police hirings back in 2017, and talked about several thousand additional police to be hired. If the statistics don't support more cops....why hire them?
4. If you go and follow the police 'blotter' info in the local news (I follow it via Wiesbaden, and Mainz)....when you do find break-in individuals/gangs....it's typically Romanian, Bulgarian, or Eastern European type individuals arrested/detained. It's almost never Iraqi, Syrian, Libyran, Moroccan, or African refugees/migrants/immigrants. If you look at the car theft activity, and when they do arrest/detain people.....it's usually Eastern European....NOT refugee crowd. If you go look at drug dealers detained or arrested.....this goes into a blender situation (Africans, Afghans, Turks, and mostly all non-German).
5. These funny firings of pistols during wedding 'convey' situations? Well....that's almost 100-percent all Turks, and the cops usually detain the guy with a court appearance required later.
6. Knifings? Well....it's almost impossible to find data that suggests that German citizens are behind the knifings. Most of this leads back to young Arabic men (you won't find a single report of women in these events). But unlike London, I can't suggest that knifings are on some dramatic increase.
7. Public perception? Whether public TV in Germany wants to admit it or not....there's been this dramatic 'public safety' blitz the past two years on how to secure your home, how to be vigilant with purse or pocketbook in public, and how to avoid being robbed on the street. If I watch HR (my regional Hessen network), there's at least thirty minutes a week which goes into public reminders about protecting your assets. People watch this and perceive that there is a problem (yep, the same network folks telling there is no crime problem).
To wrap up my own observations.....I'm one of those people who don't believe that the Syrians, Afghans, or vast majority of immigrants from 2013....are into some crime episode. Now, on the drug sales side? Yes, some Afghans and North Africans have become dope dealers. And if you look for real crime beyond that....well, it's mostly eastern Europeans (the crime gangs).
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