The current calendar would say that the next German national election is 'kinda' set for September/October of 2021. But there are several things in play, and there is the suggestion that this current coalition (CDU-CSU-SPD) will likely fall apart after the 3rd state election slated for this fall. Some folks (even those in the SPD) suggest that the exit will occur late November to mid-December, which means the election would likely occur by early April, unless the Green-FDP substitution were to occur.
Why all of this really matters? Well, there are three stimulating problems at work here:
1. Merkel wouldn't be the CDU Chancellor candidate. Among the CDU folks, there's some issue over who'd they really like to have be as the Chancellor-candidate.
2. The SPD Party is at the lowest 'thrill' level of the past sixty years.
3. Environmental problems (surprisingly) now rate as either issue number one, two or three....among the bulk of German voters (not all but at least half).
So there is a belief that if we get to this end of the situation, with an election, that the CDU (nor the SPD) might not be able to swing a majority of the vote. Yes, the Green Party might be able to take 30-percent (with the SPD probably dropping as low as 10-to-12 percent).
To have suggested this in the spring of 2018, folks would have laughed you out of the room, but various things have occurred, and there is this fair possibility now of this event occurring.
The importance of these three state elections? Well....in general, the people who'd really like some positive numbers would be the CDU and SPD parties, but if you look over polling data....neither will be getting positive numbers (most are going toward the Linke Party, the Greens and the AfD. This would all play into the idea of a unscheduled national election occurring.
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