Well....this state election is already shaping up and will be discussed a good bit.
If you went back to 2020....the Linke Party held a great deal of sway, leading at around 35-percent. Today? They've dropped to 20-percent, and probably will trend lower (down to 17-percent).
Leading? AfD Party (far-right folks)....near 32-percent. Trend-wise in six months, I'd guess unless something happens...they will lead to around 35-percent and 'win' the election.
CDU (right-of-center)? They are bouncing mostly around 20-percent and not showing much of a gain in the past year.
So the question here is logical....if the AfD folks win....can they form a government partner to lead the state? No. None of the other parties at present seem capable of agreeing to some coalition agreement.
The newly formed BSW Party? There's some belief (no polls though) that they arrive on the scene....steal votes from the AfD, and be in the 20-percent range. In this scenario, the logical question is...if the CDU won with something like 22-percent.....would they partner up with the BSW folks? The generally believed answer is that BSW is formed with far left and far right priorities....so it'd make no sense.
This state election demonstrating that politics are so divided....that no 51-percent coalition can operate (at least in one German state)? Well....yeah, this is a difficult political mess likely to arrive in the fall of 2024.
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