Thursday, November 5, 2026

Poland: Observations Since Yesterday

 1.  The Office of the President of Poland submitted two 'notes' to the prosecutor's office.  One concerned Article 128/Penal Code (crime of an attack on a constitutional part of the state) and Article 135 (active assault on the President of the Republic of Poland).

One issue I see....the chief prosecutor works for the PM.  

Paperwork-wise....the prosecutor has to handle the affair, or dump the 'notes'.

2.  As the initial hours of the coup played out....it would have been wiser to delay the coup until the President had arrived in Africa.  I don't think this was clearly thought out over him returning....like they anticipated he'd never return.

3.  Curiously.....Poland has heightened security near the Russian border (Kaliningrad). 

What authorities say....they thwarted a possible overnight provocation involving individuals with flashlights.  Yeah....armed with flashlights (there's probably some humor in this chatter).

From what I read....it appears that PM Tusk (not the President) has linked Russian efforts to foment instability in Poland....with the domestic political crisis.

4.  PM Tusk has made a comment or two....wanting a face-to-face meeting with President Nawrocki.  Nothing on the schedule yet.  Oddly....Nawrocki is supposed to fly out and be in Slovakia for a state visit this week.  It does not appear that he's worried over another coup episode.

5.National Bank of Poland (NBP) had their meeting....intending to keep interest rates unchanged. The Monetary Policy Council held the reference rate at 3.75-percent. 

New projections (looking ahead by NBP) showed higher inflation ranges for next 24 months.

6.  If you were looking at financial stability over Poland (for 2026)....robust growth....GDP up 4-percent over the year.  Inflation is not a big deal for the year.  Vast majority of the banking sector....considered sound.  

If you asked me to rank it among EU countries....it's mostly in the middle on most topics...financially-speaking.  

The coup would have been easier to sell to the public....if instability were a 'big' deal. That's not the case.

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