7 Oct 2026: Germany/Poland: 9 Stories

1.  Poll done in the state of Thuringia....next election is fall of 2029.  

Poll results (INSA): AfD Party leads with 40-percent of the public.  CDU at 18-percent.  Linke Party at 17-percent. SPD at 8-percent. BSW at 5-percent.  Everyone else below 5-percent.

2.  Gen-Z riot wounded from last weekend?  Nationally, its around 340 police who ended up at a ambulance or hospital.   

3.  Some belief (marginal facts)....that in October....Russia 'lost' 45,000 soldiers, from the war.

4.  With the death of the Free-Voter Party 'boss'....there's going to be a long discussion about the replacement figure.  

5.  Four groups have protest 'permits' in Frankfurt for today (Sat).  Primary group?  Iranian opposition rally, with 30,000 expected.  

6.  European Commission proposed yesterday....extending Poland’s exemption from EU migrant relocation rules.

7.  PM Tusk had some kind of short exchange yesterday with a journalist from Republicika (right-wing news)....got pretty heated.

8.  Poland’s Internal Security Agency (ABW)....arrested five Poles and one Russian woman.  Crime suggested?  They were supplying military components to Russia (sanctions made this a fed-crime).

9.  Some suggestion that Poland's President has given PM Tusk until 11 November....to reverse the current 'mess'.  What would happen after 11 November?  Unknown.  

Apple Wine Story

 Over the past decade....I've grown a fondness for apple-wine (apple-cider)...German-style.

So in my Hessen state....there's two primary companies that market the stuff.  You can buy it in bottles, or cans.  

When I started to get attached to the stuff...if was 99-Euro-cents per can.  That was back in 2017.  

I stood in the local grocery yesterday (end of 2026), and pricing was 1.49 Euro (per can).  Yeah, roughly a 50-percent inflation rate over 9 years.

I brought this up to the wife, and she rattled off  two-dozen products....same trend....50-percent gain since the year or two prior to Covid.

We ate out last night...local German restaurant....end-price (with tip)....68 Euro.  It would have been 50 Euro eight years ago.  

Poland Landscape: Since Yesterday

 1.  New poll done...majority of Poles responded that PM Musk probably needs to go (sooner, rather than later).

2.  GDP appearance presently....at pace of things....Poland will exceed Switzerland (Jan 2027 expectation). 

3.  Police-riot control were asked to keep big presence at the Supreme Court/Constitutional Court building.  Police responded....they'd keep a small crew around but refused to go maximum-force.

4.  Poland's Central-Bank...reached goal of 700 tons of gold (most ever held by the bank).

5.  Chinese fast-fashion platform....Shein....announced plans for a half-billion-euro logistics investment near Warsaw.  

What does fast-fashion typically mean?  You have influencers out there (across Europe) hyping fashion trends....folks get 'hot'....design crew shifts in a matter of hours to new trend....ships out of the hub. Fairly divided....positive and negative.

6.  Standoff over Poland’s Constitutional Tribunal (TK) intensified. 

Deputy Prime Minister Władysław Kosiniak-Kamysz (PSL) presented a draft constitutional amendment to end the mandates of all current national judges, grant them retired status, and elect a new 15-judge bench via the National Assembly (with staggered 3-, 6-, and 9-year terms) by a three-fifths majority. The goal is to de-escalate the conflict between the Tusk government and President Karol Nawrocki/PiS.

Tusk goal?  Pro-abortion judges.  Nawrock goal?  Anti-abortion judges.  

Adding the three-fifths rule?  Well....Tusk and Nawrocki crews....will not have ability to get names approved.

You might see months of inability to pass names, and national election comes in the fall (2027) to make it a huge problem (national issue).

Germany: Abortion Landscape Explained

 Yesterday, I talked in detail of Poland 'laws' over abortion, and how it divides the country politically.

Germany, in the same comparison?

Germany allows 'practical' access to elective abortion in early pregnancy (with procedural requirements), while Poland currently has one of the strictest regimes in the EU.

German rules....abortion is regulated in the Criminal Code (§218 StGB). It is formally a criminal offense, but not punishable under defined conditions (§218a).

Counseling pathway occurs in 95-percent of cases....non-punishable if performed no later than 12 weeks after conception (roughly the end of the 14th week of pregnancy counted from the last menstrual period).

Added rule:  If continuing the pregnancy endangers the woman’s life or risks serious impairment of her physical or mental health that cannot otherwise be averted. 

Criminal rule?  If the pregnancy results from a sexual offense (rape). Up to 12 weeks after conception. Counseling and the waiting period are not mandatory (though advice is offered); formal proof of the crime is not required beyond a doctor’s assessment.⁠

The woman herself is also not punishable up to 22 weeks post-conception if counseling occurred and a doctor performed the procedure. 

As for cost?  Counseling-path abortions are usually paid by the patient (often a few hundred euros) unless low-income; medical and criminal-ground procedures are covered by statutory insurance. 

German statistics over a normal year....around 100,000 abortions.

Politically?  This agreement ensure no toxic infighting...like you see in Poland presently.

6 Nov 2026: Germany: 4 Stories

 1.  I sat last night and watched 15 minutes of a ZDF (public TV) live forum....anti-Trump chatter. Since June of 2016....if you added up both ZDF/ARD time (forums, specials, etc)....there's probably ,2000 hours over 10 years...of anti-Trump chatter.

If you were looking for Biden pro-or-anti chatter....it probably never added up to more than 250 hours (over 5 years).  

2.  This World Climate Conference in Turkey?  Chancellor cancelled out....getting the pro-climate-change folks fairly upset.

3.  Frankfurt police have completed data-call on the riot business from last Saturday night....54 folks arrested.

All male.

Half of the folks....had NO German citizenship....'Guests'.

Of the other half....half of them had TWO citizenships (one being German, and other being 'OTHER').  They didn't say Turk or Afghan, or anything.  Pretty sure bet....they weren't Chinese, Korean, or Japanese.

Pretty sure bet of the group with no German citizenship....they will eventually end up on a deportation list, but with legal help....stall that.

4.  Regional report...Hessen....state audit office drawing attention....various cities/villages now close to bankruptcy issues.  

Poland: This Whole Debate Over Abortion

Since the weekend....I've probably put three hours into understanding this entire PiS Party versus KO Party 'war'.

I'll try to explain this in a 3-minute reading.

Poland markets itself as probably the most religious society in Europe (Italy and Greece might have an edge).

So there is this revolving debate around the moral status of a fetus, women’s autonomy, and the role of the Catholic Church. PM Tusk's KO Party wants change....President Nawrocki's PiS party want to maintain a Catholic understanding.

Poland sticks to one of Europe’s strictest abortion laws. The 1993 “abortion compromise” allowed termination only in three cases: threat to the mother’s life or health, rape or incest, and severe and irreversible fetal defects (the ground used in most cases of legal abortions)⁠.

So...around October 2020, the Constitutional Tribunal (under the PiS party-coalition) ruled that the fetal-defect exception was unconstitutional because it violated the fetus’s right to life and human dignity (Articles 38 and 30 of the Constitution). 

Once this decision was made....there were only two ways of a legal abortion, and it basically gave Tusk's party (the KO folks) a way to sell their brand to most women of Poland.

KO objectives?  Well....either the changes with the Constitutional Court not invalidating the pro-abortion agenda, or you need to ease the court-manpower to be pro-abortion (less Catholic).

Nawrocki winning this?  Mostly, he's stalling the court manpower change.  

This coup business....all about abortion?  Oddly, yes.

Deep division?  Well....you have the Catholic women....who support the churches position, and a fair number of younger women who are pro-abortion, and deeply attached to Tusk's party agenda.  

Without this agenda item?  KO probably loses one-third of its voters.

Oh, and if curious....birth-rate currently?  1.068....one of the lowest in the world.  Around Warsaw, Wrocław, and Poznań....the birth-rate is less than 1.0.  

Poland: 5 Observations

 1.  Out of the 38-million in population....roughly 5-million have a Twitter/X account (figure 13-percent).

Almost in the middle....five others have a higher percentage.

2.  If you wanted to view Poland news on Twitter....hit 'search' and use Poland.  While it's in Polish language, you can click on the item, at the top....is 'translate'.

3.  Roughly 96-to-98 percent of Poles consider themselves....ethnic-Poles (pure).  The ethnic-Pole-Germans?  It's near 144,000 (out of 38-million).

4.  Prison-population within the EU.....in case you were interested....Poles are near the top....nearly THREE times the prison population of Germany (near the bottom). 

In case you were visiting and thinking of some bad-boy behavior (getting drunk-stupid)....this is one of those countries where the police might detain you, and hefty odds that you'd do some jail-time.

5.  After communism collapsed in Poland, there was an effort to convert state-TV....over to public-TV, and send a 'we-reformed' message.  It basically has moved an 'inch'.

About a year ago....national poll was done on Polish public-TV....only 36.6-percent of Poles see public media (to include TVP, Polish Radio, PAP) as more credible than during the 2015–2023 PiS (the anti-Tusk folks) years. 

Around 55-percnet saw no change or improvement...credibility?   Zero.

No one polls the over-60 crowd (who remember the old Poland before 1990s)....who told you what to think.  I would imagine 90-percent of this age-group....are skeptical of public-TV. 

My Theory: The Riot Police On Day One Of The Coup

 Friday (30 Oct 2026)....'someone' ordered Polish riot police to gather up their gear, and present themselves at the Constitutional Tribunal (the Poland Supreme Court)....to 'protect' liberty (my words, not theirs).

On Saturday, I viewed video of the scene.  Typically in any EU country....if you are police in a riot situation....you have a heavy-duty jacket, and a helmet....with your badge number noted.

Poland badge numbers would be six digits.  

After watching about 10 minutes of clips (from Poles on the scene who were mostly pro-Presidency)...I came to the odd feature....probably 50-percent of helmets lacked a number.  On Sunday....several observers noted that they tried to talk to the riot-police, and the response was 'nothing'...with the interpretation that the riot-police might not speak Polish.  

This led folks to wonder....are riot-police really German operatives, or Russian operatives, or non-speaking Poles.

I did research.  

Polish police-in-training (at the academy)...DON'T get a badge number until they graduate and are hired as public-servants.  

I suspect these are such riot-police....with a limited number of instructors guiding them.  

In this case....they were told....DON'T talk to rioters.  So they kept quiet.

Were there any rioters?  NO.

How long were the riot-police on the scene?  Based off one report....about 23 hours....with no real pause (for hydration or food).  Academy students would be naive enough to go along with this.

Trying to explain as German-directed?  Decades after the war....Germans are often seen as the 'boogey-man'.

Would France or Germany use police-academy folks in a serious 'outing' like this?  HELL-NO.  You'd be fearful of some stupid behavior on the news the next day.

This whole thing turning into a Netflix comedy series one day?  It wouldn't shock me.