Covid-19 Chatter in Germany

 There's a fairly long article on Focus this morning which talks to Covid-19 and Germany, with the ban-rules and effects discussed.  I'd strongly recommend a read of it.

So, here's the blunt side of research from the University of Munich.  There is NO evidence that ban-rules, curfews, school closures, or lock-downs achieved anything successful in relation to Covid-19 infections. 

This study will probably be argued a good bit.  

So as we arrive at October, and the Covid-19 infection rate slides up again....will ban-rules, curfews closures and lock-downs go back into effect?  More than likely.  I think the politicians and virus-experts all believe in them to some degree, even if the numbers don't support them.

I noticed last night off RTL news (commercial news) that a sinus-inhaler will come onto the market shortly.....which is 99-percent effective against the Covid-19 virus (killing it).  Price?  15-to-20 Euro.  It'll be in a small container which is probably good for two weeks. I would suggest this to be a game-changer when production starts up.

Via the same program, they also had a chat on the 'quickie-Covid-test-centers'.  They sent undercover reporters to check them out.  Basically, it's reached the point where any idiot can go and get the certification, and then run a 'quickie-center'.  What the reporters came to suggest....the degree of competence has fallen.  If the centers continue on....there's going to have to be some kind of audit-process and inspectors in the mix, with some units shut-down and certain operators forbidden from running a site.

Wiesbaden Bars/Pubs Open As of Wednesday

 The Covid numbers are decreasing and the city government announced the outdoor opening situation to be Wednesday.

Basic deal?  Either you show you had Covid-19 or have been tested, and then provide contact-details (name, address, number).....then you can sit down and have a beer in the beer-garden.  

Note, this only gets you outdoor seating, and social distance rules still apply.  

I should add, for today....in the whole city....ONLY one single person was tested/confirmed today to have Covid-19..  

Reparations Update

 It should have moved off the plate for the German news, but I'd say it's back to a page-one item.....reparations for the Namibia genocide business.

So, the two tribes which truly affected by the genocide....Herero and Nama groups.....are rejecting the German-deal with the local government. 

They basically consider the 1.1 billion Euro package (30 years).....to be "unjust".

Strikes and demonstrations?  Probably.  

Could this lead onto some civil war?  Well....the two tribes amount to around 12-percent of the nation's population.  So I would question the wisdom of making this into a civil war.  For the Germans, it's just going to stir the fairness question up once again. 

The Green Agenda: Increased Gas Tax?

 Well....it came out today, on the current Green Party political agenda (if elected), they want a 16-cent tax on each liter of gas.  

Currently, E10 unleaded runs around 1.50 Euro per liter (figure $1.8 US), and per gallon, this would equal $6.08 a gallon (if you comparing it to US prices.

What this 16-cent deal would do?  It'd add another 75-cents (US onto each gallon) and thus making it around $6.83.

What the money would be used for?  My humble feeling is that it'd be another enhancement to convince you to dump the gas-powered car, and flip to the E-car business or public transportation.  The money collected would likely just be funneled into some pocket for more government projects or 'gifts' to the public.

How this might be received?  I might suggest 80-percent of Germans wouldn't be that friendly about additional taxes.  You were kinda leaning against the Green Party before....you probably increased your negativity about the party after hearing this idea.

Humble View Over the Speed Limit (Tempo) Chatter in Germany

 When I arrived in Germany in 1978....one of the dozen-odd things that really 'burnt' into my mind was the speed limit business.  

As the instructor for the license situation talked up the deal....you needed to be keenly aware of your vehicle, it's limits, the weather, and how good a driver you were.  Most of us in the room....would end up with smaller 50 to 100 horse-power cars, we were going to probably never get above 130 kph (80 mph). Maybe a quarter of the folks in the room would acquire an aged Mercedes/BMW brand car....which could meet the 200 kph level (124 mph).

What you came to realize after two years in Germany and leaving....on a typical Saturday on the autobahn (heading north or south out Frankfurt).....there were serious accidents, and speed probably played a factor in most of these. 

As I came back in 1984, I came to realize certain autobahns (like the A8 going toward Munich) didn't have a lot of traffic, and you could reach higher speeds (beyond 200 kph) easily.

After a while, you figured out that the tires greatly mattered in higher speeds.

Then you figured out about wildlife (usually deer) adding to the safety issue.

Accident rates greatly improved over the past fifty years?  ADAC will give you the numbers and say survival rates are greatly enhanced now.  

If you put this tempo or speed limit chatter up to a popular vote?  No one seems to want to do it (not the pro or anti-crowd).  In certain regions, like Bavaria or Hessen, I think seventy percent of folks would prefer something to be beyond 130 kph.  In highly urbanized areas like Berlin or Hamburg....it's probably seventy percent of folks who want it even reduced down to 100 kph.

All of this on the Green Party agenda?  The deal is this....Germany is the last country with the unlimited speed deal.  If you watch public TV enough.....the focus is to convince people to accept the 130 kph tempo limit.  My general belief is that it won't go anywhere, but it'll be dealt to each state (all 16) in Germany, and they be allowed to change the limit.

At least four states (I believe) will go to the 130 kph limit.  In Hamburg and Bremen, it might drift down even to 100 kph.

If you wanted more division among the public.....this would be a starting point. 

Sign of Returning to Normal?

 Well...it's an odd indicator.

SWR (public TV for the SW of Germany) reports that the Pfalz state government is now considering allowing red-light district 'houses' to reopen.

The key problem in this discussion?  They want contact-details of the customers (men) to be kept by the hookers.  On privacy priorities.....this would a serious problem.

How the reopening is reviewed?  Well, once they said that tattoo operations and cosmetic studios could re-open....this fell right into the middle of the discussion.

What'll happen?  My guess is that if a guy wants to visit some red-light 'house'....he'll have to give the gal his name, address and phone number.....with 99-percent of the information being false.  Audits proving this?  That's the funny thing....if an audit guy picks up the list to confirm things....do you really want him calling up such-and-such house, and the wife answers?  

Spy Story

 Back in the middle of the Obama era of the Presidency, it was kinda hinted across various news groups in Germany that the US spied on Chancellor Merkel and her cellphone.  The bulk of this story?  Fairly limited, until this past weekend.  I'll reference a good bit of the story over to a Focus news item discussed.  

So what journalists laid out is that during this period of about eight years ago....the US's NSA worked in cooperation with the Danish and collected digital data.  The three Germans chiefly mentioned?  Angela Merkel (CDU), Frank-Walter Steinmeier (SPD) and Peer Steinbrück (SPD).

A big deal?  Via ARD (public TV in Germany) and the print-media....it's a page-one type item, but I doubt that most Germans care (they already know that various elements of the German government spy on them already).

So the question to ask here....is it just the US, or could Russia or China also possibly spied on Merkel, Steinmeier and Steinbruck?  Well....evidence is not existent on that possibility.

What German journalists continually harp on is that 'friends' don't spy on 'friends'.  If you went up to the same folks and suggested that 50-percent of their emails and voice-communications are routinely intercepted by some KGB group?  Well....it'd probably freak them out a bit.  It'd be the same way if they suddenly discovered their new Chinese friend was really a CCP-undercover agent.  

The attitude is that when the Cold War ended.....all this spy-on-spy business went away, and I'd argue that things just evolved....where you get on a spy list for commercial reasons (industry spying) or for influence-peddling.  

As for getting all grumpy now with President Biden?  Oh no....that won't happen.  Steinbruck probably would laugh over himself being a target, and suggest that the most they learned is that he had a food passion for liver and onions.  

Stuttgart

 Weather has gone to what you'd expect in late May, and in Stuttgart last night....it meant that people were out and about.  In the middle of this....around 10 PM....the Police had to react to current ban rules...enforcing no-drinking/no-alcohol (after 10 PM).  This didn't go well.

This morning, if you watched SWR regional new (public TV for the southwest)....around 500 police were called out to control what turned in a riot (shortly after midnight).

A couple of police were wounded in the 'action'.  Things didn't really start to calm down until 2 AM.  

Mostly all leading back to drunk young guys?  More or less.  I think a lot of people have put up with their frustrations for a long period, and being cooperative with the ban-rules has reached a limit.  

Latest Political Survey

 Bild did a survey on how the election (for September) looks for the nation:

The great numbers from two weeks ago for the Green Party?  Disappearing, with them now sitting at 22-percent (second place), and the CDU-CSU folks now at 25-percent.

The FDP remains at 13-percent. SPD at 16 percent.  AfD at 12-percent.  And the Linke Party at 7-percent.

What really happened?  Baerbock (the Green candidate for Chancellor) has done a couple of mistakes, and there's more on the table about the Green agenda, which isn't pleasing to most folks.  I might go and suggest that on debate skills....Baerbock hasn't risen to the situation required.  

So this is more about the Greens losing ground, than the CDU-CSU getting hyped up?  More or less.  It wouldn't shock me if half the voters weren't that happy with the Chancellor candidates that the CDU-CSU, SPD and Green parties offer.  

How It Was Chatter

 Last week....a member of the CDU Party from eastern Germany (Wanderwitz) stood up and did a interview....to say that folks in the eastern side of Germany have a bigger tendency to lean or vote for right-wing extremist parties than folk in the western part of Germany.

His reasoning?  He kinda believed that after 45 years of a dictatorship (DDR-wise)....the 30-odd years of democracy (provided by FRG).....just hadn't moved much of anything.

I paused over the description and period since 1990.  

After 9 November 1989....the Wall was basically gone, and the fall/collapse of the East German government came underway.  

For those who'd grown up in the old system....remembering how it was at least in the 1950s....they probably drifted back into the system without much effort.  Those who were born after the 1950s....were true DDR-members, and most probably question a great deal of 'democracy' and identify some parts of the Merkel policy as being similar to old DDR rules.  

Public TV in Germany (ARD/ZDF) often gets labeled as instruments of propaganda by this same crowd.  

Wanderwitz's comments?  Maybe he's right that influence still exists 35-odd years later.  But when does this belief finally end?  Second generation?  Third generation?  

School Chatter

 For most of the past school-year in Berlin (the city), it's been a home-school deal....meaning the parents got stuck with the kids, and most of the lessons were via a laptop/computer.

Peeved-off nature of parents?  Well....this past week, it reached the level where lawyers are involved and the parents want to force the teachers to come back into the classrooms with the kids.  

Seriously, at this point....next week being the first of June?

This Berlin imitative is getting plenty of chatter around the internet, and RBB (public TV in Berlin) talked about the subject.

I watched two news pieces this week where Berlin parents talked about the school-year, and they regarded as marginally successful.  No one is really sure if their kids progressed, or just studied enough to be where they were a full year ago.

The Constitutional Court?  Well....I'm guessing they are gazing at the calendar and just shaking their head.  The school year would end on 24 June (restarting on 6 August).  It makes no sense to shuffle in some review and force some face-to-face deal with the teachers/students.  

Will the school system go face-to-face on 6 August?  Probably.  Will a new wave of Covid-19 arrive by October and force home-study once again?  If I were a betting person....I'd give it 75-percent odds.  Even if you vaccinated every single kid, and every single teacher (would be miracle results).....there's no guarantee of 'safety'.  

Five Short News Bits

 1.  If you watched this chatter over the week about the EU and Switzerland waking up in the middle of trade talks....that were supposed to lead to a treaty, they failed (miserably, if you take what the Swiss say).

Chief reason?  Well....the chatter leads to one odd EU demand in this business.....they wanted free movement of migrants to be accepted by the Swiss....which they weren't about to engage in this and draw up a massive public voting mess in Switzerland.  

So the trade talks are finished?  I would suggest that they will be dumped there until late summer, and the EU team will re-engage...spending another entire year chatting about trade, but keep coming back to the Swiss needing to resolve migrant movement within the Swiss border.

2.  Austria is working up this idea similar to a sex-offender rooster....except it'd involve people accused/convicted of terror acts.  

Once you got pushed....you'd register yourself (if you had past crimes) on this terror listing....for the rest of your life.

Deporting you?  No....it's just that if you moved around Austria....you'd have to report to the local police and they'd know you were a 'bad-boy' ten years ago.  I don't think it really resolves anything but at least the politicians convince you that they 'fixed' something.

3.  This Belarus, RyanAir, and Lukashenko business?  

Basically, the US and EU are going to cut off trade, and probably all air-traffic.  Lukashenko won't care, but there's probably 20,000 Belarus residents who travel and do trade outside of the country.

Heading toward third-world status?  I would imagine trade and commerce within Belarus is headed for a two-year 'dip'.

It would have been a lot easier to just hire some thugs to rig up a fake accident while this guy was in Greece and avoid the headlines.  That's how stupid the whole thing has become.

4.  Continual chatter over the German Presidential race in the spring of 2022 (to be elected by the Bundestag, not the general public).  Steinmeier (current President, from SPD Party) says he'd like a second term.  

Journalists this week hyped up the idea that it's time for a woman, and they listed three.  AKK (the Defense Minister, CDU Party), Glockner (Agricultural Minister, CDU Party), and Katrin Goring-Eckardt (Green Party).  

Why it needs to be a woman?  Well....because.

Whoever wins the September Bundestag election will have to build a coalition, and the voting agreement (secretly) will concern who the two or three parties agree to slide their votes over to.  I think Steinmeier could still win.  Personality-wise, it's hard to see Goring-Eckardt getting the votes for the job.  

5.  Finally, there's some chatter that the UK is fed up with illegal migrants making it to their shores from Europe.  So there's some talk that PM Johnson wants to send them back, period.  We aren't even talking about an application process....you'd just be determined to be illegal and sent back to France, Spain, etc.  

Odds of this happening?  Almost zero.  But there's a fair amount of hostility brewing in the UK over the increasing number of migrants.  Within a couple of years, there's going to be serious military-related action to occur, and whatever image you have today.....will be a major problem.  

Covid Story

 This story popped up last night on TV, and I saw most of detailed in a Focus piece.

Basically, you have a German guy in Munich who got Covid, and ended up in a ICU-bed for 129 days.  

Bad off?  The doctors at some point said it was 50-50 if the guy survived.  So far, no one seems to have had such a bad case of Covid, and survived as this guy did.

There's a second guy in Munich.....42 years old....who left only after 92 days of ICU handling. 

All going back to diminished lung functions?  Yes.

The one thing avoided in these news pieces....the total bill.  If this had been a US clinic, for 129 days in a ICU bed?  It'd probably be over half-a-million dollars.  

We Want to 'Gift' You 75 Euro

 There's a fair amount of chatter this campaign season (building up to the September national election) in Germany.

So one of the top five 'hypes' is C02 sins, and how you need to focus on your business.  

One of the questions asked by Germans....just how much are you expecting me and my family to contribute to the C02 sin 'bucket'?

Well, I noticed via N-TV this morning....a brief talk by the Green Party Chancellor candidate (Baerbock) over this, but avoiding the real cost, and simply hinting that regular Germans would get a 'free bit' of money to compensate for their C02 sin situation.

The amount suggested?  75 Euro per person.  Three member family?   225 Euro.  A single guy?  75 Euro.

According to N-TV....the number often discussed (in some weird descriptive way) is that a rural German family would be paying around 100 Euro a year.  Where the hundred Euro 'idea' comes from?  That's really clear, and I suspect it's a number passed around Green Party circles.  One odd thing stands out.....100 is such a nice round number....that it sound convincible but fake.

By suggesting that a 3-person family would lose a hundred but gain 225 Euro....would make folks happy.  You'd start to plan plan the spending of the 125 left-over Euro (maybe a day-trip to a zoo, or family situation at some local circus).

The real amount?  Unknown.  Where the 'gift' money would come from?  Well....logically, taxes would have to increase, or the standard pricing for things would go up to make up for the C02 tax business.  

If it came out a year into the agenda....that general prices for things escalated 30-percent?  Like the delivery of grocery items to your local grocery shop required C02 usage and they passed the cost onto you the consumer?  It would seem that a whole new 'gift' amount (way more than the 75 Euro per person) would have to be figured up, and you'd probably get 400 Euro a year per person.  Then the whole thing escalate year after year because no one would hinder or halt C02.  

Yeah, it's possible that you'd wake up ten years in the future....getting a check of 2,500 Euro a year per person to compensate you for C02 costs, but still be out of another 500 Euro a year on your own. 

As silly as it sounds....it just seems like some idiot could find another way of saving the Earth and humanity, without taxes or 'gifting'.  

Two Things

 I sat this morning and watched a brief bit of N-TV news (commercial German news) and two curious Covid stories came up.

A health and social psychologist at the University of Koln came out and said that Germans will have to get used to freedoms they have newly acquired, as Covid diminishes this summer.  

The quote to key upon?  "It is difficult for many to break away from the new habits and rules." (Simone Dohle).

The idea that people have 'knocked' themselves in the head and gotten all pro-ban-ruled?  I just don't buy that about the German public. I think the bulk of Germans are literally begging for the ban rules to finally end, and life being allowed to return to 'normal'.  

The suggestion that you will have to go step-by-step in adjusting your behavior and enjoyment of freedoms?  I'm just not buying into that idea.   

Second item?  You.Gov went out and asked Germans what they 'thought' about the federal government crisis handling of the vaccination/infection business.

So there it is...roughly a quarter of Germans were 'very dissatisfied' about the leadership/handling in this crisis period.  With this....another 30-percent said they were 'somewhat dissatisfied' with the achievements done.  So more than 50-percent are negative.  

Going into an election period, with this high number of disgruntled voters?  It would beg questions and really harm the brand name of the CDU-CSU and SPD parties.

Tank Story

 This is a fairly long and complicated story, and I'll try to carve it down to a simple piece.

If you've ever been to Kiel, Germany (far NW seaport town, Hanseatic city), it's known for a fair amount of history, trade, and accumulation of wealth.  

Police got called, and did a search warrant on this highly upscale property in town.  It's owned by a 84-year-old guy.....fairly well-to-do, and has a huge drive-in basement.  

The year?  2015.

So the case finally arrived in court this past week, and the old (now 84) is having to defend himself.

Over the years, he had collected military 'gear'.

So what the police upon entry?  A German 'Panther' tank (production ended in 1945), a anti-aircraft gun, torpedo, some assault rifles and pistols, with a thousand-odd rounds of ammo for the handguns.

Police had to call the German Bundeswehr 'tank-recovery' folks to drag the non-function Panther tank out of the basement.  Basically they had to hook a chain on it (it wouldn't even crank up) and damaged the basement in various ways.  

In the mind of the prosecutor, this was a violation of the War Weapons Control Act.

What the experts have said?   By the wording of the War Weapons Control Act, by being non-functional.....most of the items recovered don't count.  The only exception they had....was the anti-aircraft gun.  

What's odd about the story when you dig into it.....the guy was well known in Kiel as a collector, and it was open knowledge about his collection for years.  No one ever had a problem with this until you get to 2015.  Change in administration/personnel?  It makes you wonder how things changed and why they felt the need to dig into this.

A lot of prosecution man-hours and funding spent so far....over six years to reach this point?  Obviously.  If the bulk of this case fails....whoever led this effort is probably finished in the prosecution business.  

Fraud Story

 Police did a raid in Bochum, Germany (far north) yesterday.  Target?  Well....a company that does the quickie-Covid-19 tests.  What they say is that they kinda making up fake tests/results off the 18-Euro tests.  Focus did a good job of covering the entire story.

More of these to come?  It wouldn't shock me if you had a raid every week for a while.  There might be dozens of companies doing this type of business.  

City Political Chatter

 Back in March, city elections occurred in Hessen.  The one curious one....to form up a city government....was Frankfurt.

The big winner?  The Greens with 25 percent.  They kinda fell into an odd position....they didn't want to form with the CDU (second place, with 22 percent).

So a four-way deal was worked up....Greens, SPD, Volt (a new pro-EU party, and leaning to the left), and the FDP.  The deal was on the table and mostly done....each party needed an internal vote to conclude things.

Well...this week, the FDP (7.6 percent) announced that their internal vote failed.  

Where this puts things?  Basically, the Greens will have to go and chat with the CDU folks or work up a four-way deal with the Linke Party (far-left) as their partner.  

What this presents for Frankfurt for the next five years if you end up with a fairly left-left-leaning government?  It's anyone's guess.  My humble guess is that if you were leaning to move out of the city limits to lesser regulated surroundings....this probably will help you make the decision.  

Namibia - Germany 'Settlement'

 Around about a 136 years ago....Germany arrived in the region of Namibia, Africa....set up a colony, and in fairly quick fashion....got into the atrocities business (against the tribes of the Nama and Herero folks).  

Total killed in this period?  Around 75,000.

The colony effort?  Well....shortly after WW I, the colony was dissolved, and was attached for several decades to South Africa.

MDR had an interesting update to the whole story.

This week...the governments of Namibia and Germany came to this mutual agreement.  Germany did finally agree that atrocities happened, and a serious amount of money was put on the table (one-billion Euro) to compensate for the crime of hundred years ago.  Curious part of the story?  It's to be paid out slowly, over thirty years.  

The end of this whole mess?  Well....no.

You see....the Herero elements have stood up and said that it was highly unfair that they weren't allowed at the government table in these talks.  It reached a point where a court was drawn into the discussion.

What's generally said?  The Germans were talking mostly (only) to the government itself.  In the minds of the Herero folks, they were the injured party....not the current government.  

The Herero tribal numbers?  If you go by the Wiki folks, the tribe only makes up 7-percent of national numbers.  To be honest, the Nama folks only make up 5-percent.

The Ovembo tribe?  Well....they make up fifty percent of the population, so they kinda control the voting and the government functions.  

All of this leading to tribal conflict, and a civil war?  No one is really suggesting that (at least not yet).  I think by parring this billion Euro sum down to around 33-million Euro a year....they might discourage conflict over the 'cash'.   As for the Herero folks not having any say over the spending of the 'cash'?  Well....yeah, that might turn into an interesting long-term mess.  

I admit, it would be interesting to wake up in five years...in the midst of a Namibia civil war over the German settlement money, and the Germans having been gone for almost a century.....recreating conflict once again. 

The Kebab Story

 For those who've never been to Germany....one of the chief 'dishes' that you'd normally try is the 'Turkish Kebab'.  

My description of meal?  You can make it with beef or lamb (pork is a no-go).  So you get a skewer and stab the beef/lamb, adding a fair amount of spices, garlic (lots of garlic usually), and toss on some onions.  

If you used the cheaper meat....you probably would get the dish for about 2.50 Euro.  If you went to a more moderate place....it'd probably go to 3.50 Euro.  

A fast-food option?  Yeah, and most people would suggest that with some fries on the side....it's better than a burger deal.

The negative side of the dish?  A fair number of Germans would offer the criticism that some places use an excessive amount of garlic (enough that you could smell your co-worker from ten feet away).  

I bring all of this up because things have occurred in Bavaria recently where a new Hans Kebab shop opened up (kind of a franchise thing), and they wanted a unique optional dish.  

Basically, instead of using cheaper beef....they went to the idea of Japanese Wagyu beef (most expensive beef in the world), and they priced their kebab at 35 Euro (roughly $42).  That's before the fries or beer is added to the bill.  

Shocker?  Apparently, it's at a location where the upscale folks might hang out, and actually pay 35 Euro for a Kebab.  I'd admit that I might do once just to test it.  

Germany and Covid-19: 28 June 2021

 1.  In general, most Germans believe that once the incidence rate (per 100,000) got down to around 40 to 50 (100 to 200 was way serious in your community if that was the advertised number)....then a lot of these ban-rules ought to disappear.

Well....there was talk by the Chancellor yesterday that she wanted the ban-rules to stay in place to some degree....even if the rate was 40.  

I would suggest that a fair sum of Germans are peeved and frustrated by the ban-rules still in place.

2.  Total death count since day one (out of 83-million)?  88,013.  

3.  Total vaccinated with the first shot?  Near 41-percent of the population.  On the second shot, the count is near 16-percent.

4.  Out of my local town (Wiesbaden, population 290k), the death count is at 268.

5.  Focus this morning brought up a new Covid scam deal....fake testing.  A test center will open up (with credentials from the city) and show paperwork for x-number of people they tested.  In this scam example....in reality, they only tested 80 actual people....but the voucher/paperwork they turned in (to be paid for) was 977 people.

I expect by late summer....a lot of audits to start up and probably a quarter of all the quickie-test centers to shut down abruptly.  I should note here....you (as a test-center) can easily get the 6 Euro for the test covered, but the total on collecting is around 18 Euro (with the 6 included in that sum).  So for a hundred fake tests....you could walk away with 1,200 Euro.  You figure two gals/guys working for a 8-hour day.....scam-wise, 600 Euro each.  

6.  N-TV brought up this curious story.  Back in 2007, in Germany.....a pandemic exercise was held.  A lot of lessons learned came out.  Anything implemented or changed?  The journalists dug into this and people basically admitted that nothing much changed from that exercise fourteen years ago.  

Police Story

 Around summer of 2020....the German court system finally came to say that autobahn construction on A49 (here in Hessen, north part of the state)....could continue (had been in the court for almost 20 years).

So, environmentalists got involved when construction started on 1 October 2020.  Everyday, they showed up.....everyday....the police had to react.

HR reported this today.

So they added up the police cost to this project (1 October to 8 December).  With the vehicle action, the overtime, and miscellaneous cost....it's around 19-million Euro (figure around $23-million dollars).  

Where will the money come from?  Well...HR says that the state (Hessen) Interior Ministry will cover this.  Probably from some emergency pot of money, and later....various state agencies probably will cover portions.  

Me personally?  I would have gone to each guy/gal arrested or detained and just said your action has a cost factor of 1,200 Euro (for each arrest).  The sad thing is that the 19-million Euro had all kinds of potential uses, and running an arrest 'camp' was the least productive of those ideas.

Public Forum Chatter

 Last night, off Channel One in Germany (ARD, public TV)....they ran the Maischberger public forum show.  Chief topic?  Green Party agenda, with their Chancellor candidate (Baerbock).  

There's been a fair amount of chatter/criticism today of Baerbock and a couple of things that came up on the show.  Chief problem?  I'd say the sudden mention in the past week of Christmas 2020 'bonus' income....which she confessed to in the past week.  

Amount that was confessed?  Well....if you add it all up....around 25,000 Euro (about $30k dollars).

A big deal?  I sat and kinda laughed.  If you went to any of the hundred-odd players in the US and made them do a confession on true income.....their confessions would add up to $250,000 a year minimum, and in some cases....over $10-million.  

On the confession stage, this is a half-star issue (out of five stars), in my humble opinion.

Did she fail to pay taxes on the 25k Euro?  No....instead, she just avoided reporting through the Bundestag 'income' statement.  That's the sad thing.  Then you analyzed the amount....out of 25k Euro, taxes probably ate up 9,000 of that.  What'd she buy herself out of the money?  Unknown, but probably a new vacuum cleaner, a 10k Euro landscape job, and a new wardrobe for running for Chancellor.

But still this got tossed around in a vicious way for at least fifteen minutes.

The amusing part?  From the party itself....she got a 1,500 Euro Covid-19 bonus for what you'd deem over-time work for an entire year.  Again, I just sat and laughed.  

Here's the thing, Baerbock kinda looked like a 12-year old kid who got caught stealing cookies from Grandma's cookie stash.  She couldn't handle the criticism well, and the episode was crushing public enthusiasm of her.  I'd have no doubt that the Green Party will suffer a loss of one or two points on the polling over the next two weeks.

The rest of the public chat forum?  Various slams against Green agenda items, and it probably reset the public trends a bit in the end.  

Blotter Chatter

 I read the local (Wiesbaden) crime blotter a fair amount.  I won't call it entertainment...it's more like a display of how things have fallen in the past forty-odd years in the region.

Just after midnight on Wednesday morning.....a doorbell rung in some apartment complex in the city (west-end).  

What the cops say is that the resident (guy, 31 years old) answers the doorbell.  A very short conversation occurs.  No one says that the resident knew the guy, or what the talk was about.  Seconds into this....the visitor at the door pulls some object (probably a knife or cutting device) and assaults the resident.  Then the visitor runs off.

It's a fairly serious wound but the resident appears to be alive at this point.  

Knowledge of the visitor?  Unknown. 

This is one of the changes to the city over the decades.  Normally, no one would have gone around after 10 PM 'visiting' houses.  On top of that, you'd normally never worry about some nutcase at the door.  

All of this being about woman-troubles?  Well...you don't know. It could even be mistaken identity of a woman-troubles guy.  

Long-Term Camps?

 There's an Italian newspaper (Il Giornale) which has a curious news piece on Germany.  They say that two German CDU Party members (Merkel's group) are talking up the idea of more refugee camps to be built in Italy and Spain.....to house (sounding long-term) all these migrant folks making their way across the Med.

In the piece, it's kinda clear that these are war refugees and they fit more into economic migrants....which makes it hard to see the EU getting anything done.

What might occur here?  The EU might come to terms of just paying off Italy, Spain and probably even Greece....to just hold back migrants.  But this idea (if it gets this far)....just creates a massive problem or two when you get five years into the future, with 100k to 200k people sitting impatiently in migrant camps and seeing no exit possible.

Just in 2021, I could probably see at least 25,000 new migrants in Spain/Italy.  

All of this....because the group of politicians sitting in power can't say the migration 'door' has closed?  Yeah.....that's the amazing part of the story.

If you go into most of the European countries now.....there's a fair number of people peeved and set to a no-entry position, and willing to vote any party in which goes to stand again more migrant/immigrants.  So the pro-entry folks are in a fairly big mess....they would lose their seats of power and have no ability to influence 'change' of any type....if they try to push a open-door policy.

So if you went and explained to people....part of the massive taxation bucket affecting Germany and the rest of Europe....is a bucket of money to pay a couple of countries to manage 'guests' that you really don't want walking around or in your own country.  If people ever figure this angle to the whole mess....it'd be a rough mess for journalists to talk about.  

The next EU election?  Spring 2024.  Normally, the EU elections don't draw much attention and fewer people show up to vote (at least from past episodes).  

Covid Chatter

 The infection rate (Covid-19) for my local state of Hessen has finally started decreasing.  Locals would say that it's just weird....state has lagged behind most all of the German states on the numbers.

So the subject came up this week within the state government, and they needed a 'path' to exit the stupid ban-rules.  Rather than just saying the ban-rules all end on X-day....they said there's a two-step process now.

On meeting up with folks.....level one: two households can gather.  Level two: two households or ten people (but vaccinated people don't count in the ten number, so you could have forty or fifty people gathered up if they were shot-up with the vaccination.

On shopping....level one: mask still required, test is recommended but not required.  For level two, all shops open, period.

With gastronomy and tourism, level one means outdoor eating and drinking can occur, if you do social distancing, have a 'current' test and contact details written out for the business.  On level two, same situation except the test business is not required.  

Discos and clubs?  Roughly same conditions.  

People pepped up on socializing and getting out of the curfew business?  OH YEAH.  

One of the news segments last night involved following the police around while doing curfew control.  You can tell that the police are generally fed up with the amount of enforcement required.  Generally, at 1 AM (when curfew was being enforced in some cities), the majority of people you bump into are either drunk or doped-up....so a physical confrontation usually occurs, and the cops are given a difficult task.  So everyone wants the curfew and control business to halt.

I would suggest for June, July and August....there's going to be a massive surge on partying, beer consumption, and eating-out.  But a lot of this will be centered on out-door locations, and this will be the summer of maximum beer-garden enjoyment.  

UFO Chatter

 Today (26th) Focus finally did a report over the Pentagon videos of UFOs, and told their readers that a report will occur shortly (going from the intelligence people of the Pentagon to the House/Senate).  What is big about the Focus story?  Well....this has been floating around for about ten weeks in the US news, and really hyped-up over the past month (NY Post, NY Times, WaPo, NBC, CBS, etc).  It's first time that most Germans read the account.

Shock-factor?  I'm not that sure that even if the Pentagon admits there are UFOs....that Germans would generally believe it.  

From the German intellectual crowd....I'd suggest that 90-percent will laugh and just say it's BS. 

From the German teeny crowd (ages 13 to 18).....probably 90-percent will readily believe in the story and do a lot of speculation.

A lot of this going back to the mess that the 1966 series....Raumpatrouille – Die phantastischen Abenteuer des Raumschiffes Orion left on ARD's (Channel One, public TV) doorstep.  After that series, science fiction was kinda forbidden except on commercial German TV.  It's only been in the past decade with Netflix and Amazon....that various science of a German origin started to occur.

Might we get an entire German public TV chat forum in June, after this Pentagon report?  I'd give it a 1-percent chance.  

Saxony Anhalt State Election Polling Update

 Focus did a fine update on recent polling, and it's going to shock a few folks.

By their polling numbers....the AfD Party will win with 26-percent of the state vote.  Behind them by two points is the CDU Party (24-percent).

The Greens would only get 13-percent, with the SPD getting a pretty marginal number (6-percent).  The Linke Party?  Near 11-percent.  And the FDP sits at 12-percent.

So building a coalition?  Just about impossible.

Maybe you could run a four-party coalition....if the AfD totally fails (what I'd expect) with the CDU, SPD, Greens and FDP.  But it's never gone to this extent of four lesser parties trying build a functional state government apparatus.

As for a message for the CDU and SPD?  Well....yeah, this is going to be a pretty messy situation for the next week after this, and both parties will try to blame various things.

A lot of disenchantment related to refugees?  No....not what you'd call a lot....but I'd say a quarter of population haven't bought the public TV message or the chatter of either the SPD or CDU.  But there are other minor issues which have been building and Covid ban rules are in the middle of this as well. 

If the SPD were to get less than 5-percent?  Yeah, that would be a big deal for the national trend.  

My List of Coalition 'Stumbles' for the German September National Election

 My 'stumbles' list is the harsh realities that may occur if the Green Party 'wins':

1.  The Linke Party gets 4.9-percent of the national vote or less, which means they are not a option in coalition building.

2.  While in the midst of discussions between the Greens and CDU-CSU....the CSU (the Bavarians) says none of this makes sense in the deal situation, and walks out....shocking the hell out of the CDU folks.

3.  While sliding over to an option of the SPD and FDP parties joining up....the extreme element of the Greens and SPD discover that half of their promises to the voters.....are a no-go for the FDP folks.....so they walk out.

4.  Finally,  the Greens try to work an option with the SPD and CDU parties together, and find that a fair number of CDU folks are furious at the acceptance being worked out, and a quarter of the CDU Party members might actually walk out on the party.

Any of these, or all of these, could happen.

Polling Shift?

 N-TV did a poll of the nation....if the September national election were today here in Germany, and here's the shift going on:

1.  The Greens are at 25-percent (way up over the 2017 numbers of 9-percent)..

2.  The CDU-CSU connection is damaged and presently at 24-percent (roughly 8 points down from 2017's results).

3.  The SPD is marginally at 14 percent (six points down from 2017).

4. The FDP is shocking some folks at 13-percent (up 2.5 point roughly over 2017).

5.  The AfD is showing ten percent (the Saxony-Anhalt results in two weeks may reshape that upwards).

6.  The Linke Party is at 6-percent (if they go below 5-percent, they get no seats in the Bundestag).  If they were to go to a 4.9-percent situation, yes....they'd be totally out of the Bundestag and that would reshape the the drawing of representation.  

Building a coalition with the Greens as a winner?  It might be an enormous task.  

Cost Factor of Vaccinations

 Somebody sat there in my state of Hessen, and asked the question....what's it cost for a vaccination at the doctor's office, versus the vaccination center?

Well....if it comes up....tell the guy, it's best not to ask.

The official cost got mentioned by HR (our regional public TV folks).  What they say?

So far, to run the 28 regional vaccination centers from the Christmas period, to now....around 640-million Euro have been spent (figure $750-million dollars more or less).  Total population of the state (including kids)?  6.29-million.  Right now....around 800k have both shots done (figure around 13-percent), and 2.5-million have a minimum of one shot. 

So here's the thing....if you went to a local doctor and got the shot (with your healthcare agency/company paying)....it'd be around 20-to-25 Euro (for his time syringe and liquid stuff).  So yeah, this vaccination center crap is about 150 Euro and fairly expensive to run (seven times the cost).

Wrong way or more costly way of doing this?  Well....listen, these political idiots are under pressure and they have to deliver 'X' in some fantastic way (light-speed) and this vaccination center business was the way to show performance.  

So by the end of 2021....how much will Hessen have spent on the 28 vaccination centers?  I can only take a reasonable guess.....close to a billion Euro.  

Green Party Agenda: No More Paperwork?

 Well....Focus covered this 20-line story today....over a discussed German Green Party agenda item....digitalizing applications.

What they'd like to do....simplify the entire process of getting a license, registering a car, doing your national ID card, etc....all by an internet process.

You would do this off your cellphone, your tab, or your laptop.

I sat and pondered over this.  

First, if you lined up a hundred-odd Germans and tested them for competency or patience....I'd suggest that a third of the adult population would not be capable of handling this.

Then you come to this unique problem (demonstrated early this year with the App for making appointments for the Covid vaccinations)....it got 'stuck' at various times, and you'd have to restart the process.  In some cases, it didn't take much to overwhelm the server.

Fraud made easier?  That's another issue that I'd be worried about.

Generally, if you look around the US at successful digitization programs....they put a lot of work and effort into it....simplifying the whole business, and hired competent people to run the program.  

As for this being an attractive 'cause' to vote for the Greens?  Well...it's just not on the top ten or even the top one-hundred list of issues that most people would like resolved.  

Frankfurt Airport Terminal II Reopening?

 1 June, reopen, after a year closed due to Corona.  

Shocker?  Last summer, they hinted that they'd reopen around April/May of 2021.  So what they are currently saying....there's enough traffic building up to have the terminal open for business.  

A positive sign?  Some suggest that with vaccinations and current travel trends.....the airport might be back up to 50 to 60 percent of the 2019 numbers by late fall.  

If In-Country Flights in Germany Ended Tomorrow

 The hype by the Green Party and carried to a higher level by the journalists....is that either via heavier taxation fees or just an out-right-ban will occur.  So you couldn't board a plane to from Berlin to Hamburg or Munich to Frankfurt (examples).

I live in the central region, and generally....if I drove....I could reach Hamburg, Munich or Berlin in six to eight hours.

On the miserability index?

Well....the last thing on Earth I'd really like to do is drive from Frankfurt to Hamburg.  Between accidents, traffic tie-ups, construction/renovation, etc....it's a pretty miserable drive.  Tractor trailer accidents?  This is the bigger of the negatives.

Driving to Munich?  I have around five different traffic 'patterns' from which I could drive down.  Some have been under renovation for a minimum of three years and it's a added two-hour drive.  The A7 route from Wurzburg onto Munich?  Maybe the better of the routes....at least with less heavy rigs.

Driving to Berlin?  Fifty percent of the drive is relaxed and not that much on traffic.  

Going to no in-country flights.....to encourage me to use the Bahn (railway)?  In the summer period?  It won't happen....mostly because I know the reliability of the AC units on ICE trains.  

The fact that I only live 25 minutes away from the Frankfurt Airport?  That's a fairly big positive and one reason why I'm stuck on flights usually.  

For some reason, I just don't see this political agenda getting public approval.  If anything, it'd probably encourage me to avoid German tourist locations and fly out to other countries.  

Housing Story

 It's a business story and a housing story.....told by Focus this morning.

Apparently, two mega-giants in the German housing business (Vonovia and Deutsche Wohnen)....are about to merge.

What it amounts to?  Half-a-million apartments across Germany.

The key issue.....if this moves fully ahead?  Well....expropriation.

To explain expropriation?  Around Germany.....thirty years ago....a fair number of urban centers operated 'state-housing' (public housing), and the rent was controlled.  A good example of this today is public housing around Vienna.

In the 1980s....the West German federal government gave a path for cities to slide out of the 'business' and let commercial companies run housing situations.

What we can generally say over the past twenty years....housing (apartment) prices have escalated, and it's hard to find adequate apartment situations in places like Berlin, Frankfurt, or Hamburg.  To be honest, there's probably over forty urbanized areas of Germany where housing is a top-problem.

So there's talk of expropriation....you'd do the paperwork with a judge signing off, and using German law to just grab private housing to become a city or public utility type situation.  The Constitution actually allows for this type of situation....but it's never been pushed to this limit.

If you go around Berlin, I would take a guess that more than one-third of the city is thrilled over the idea, and want the property 'grabbed'.

What happens after the grab?  Legal minds say that you have to compensate the owner for the property.  So an apartment complex worth 100-million Euro?  There's probably an assessment and some judge signing off on the value, and then the city/state would pay the previous owner.  

Do the cities or states even have the money for such a grab?  Well....NO.  This part of the discussion is best done with a bottle or two of Rum, and a six-pack of soda.  The city or state would have to go to banks and borrow the money....owing them some fantastic debt, and increase taxes in some way to run a housing situation, which can't involve the previous levels of rent.  Yes, all of this in the end would mean less cost to the renter, but increased taxation (to cover the act of exportation.

Do the two companies worry about the potential of a grab?  I don't think so.  In their mind....someone has to cough up a fair amount of money, and in the end....there's no loss (unless you are talking about tax-payers somewhere in the middle of this).

As the two merge....somewhere in the management side of the new company....there's going to be cutbacks in personnel, and more profit down the line.  Stocks bumping up today?  Probably so.  

Test Story

 N-TV had a short update today over the Covid-19 'quickie' tests.  You can generally buy these at grocery stores and pharmacy shops here in Germany....ranging from 5.99 to 10.99 Euro each. 

Schools use them, and in the past couple of months....companies have handed out at least two per week per employee.  

So here's the thing....various tests have been done and each time the 'quickie' test is done and says 'positive'...it's a 50-percent chance that it's wrong.  

After you get the 'positive' result....you then need to take the PCR test (typically done at some clinic or your doctor's office).  This is around a 99-percent accurate test, and as the news people put it.....a lot of these 'quickie' tests positive results were wrong.

Trust?  Well....I would suggest that the tremendous amount of money flowing into this 'bucket' is just money wasted.  

This RyanAir Hijacking?

 It's probably the craziest story of 2021 so far.

A RyanAir (the discount airline) flight was set to go from Athens, Greece to Lithuania.  Somewhere about 80-percent into the flight....a false hijacking situation came up, and a Belarus fighter came to escort the passenger plane to Minsk.

Onboard?  Well....there was a blogger who was highly critical of the Belarus president.  Naturally, the guy was dragged out and arrested after the plane was secure on the ground.

This is hyped up on German news (one of the top three stories of the morning) and likely to draw a lot of political discussion on Tuesday (today in Germany, is a national holiday).  

Election Modeling

 Some statistics people here in Germany built a model off polling for Chancellor.

N-TV picked up the story and covered it to a general degree.

So the model says Laschet of the CDU ought to win the election (68-percent chance). 

Believability?  Well....this Saxony-Anhalt state election in two weeks....if it goes badly for the CDU, would probably change the model a good bit.  

Political Polling

 I noticed off Focus this afternoon....they did a weekend political polling situation.  Newest positions for the parties, if the election were held tomorrow?

The CDU-CSU situation sits at 24-percent (a point down from the last poll they did).  Same story with the Greens (losing a point) and being at 23-percent.  

Who gained?  Well....the FDP Party (up two points) at 13-percent..

The SPD Party also gain a point, at 17-percent.

The AfD Party.....same position as previous poll....12-percent.

Linke Party at 6-percent.

What's going on?  I would suggest three things:

1.  As the Green agenda gets pushed out into the public....more questions arise, and the charm just isn't appreciated by the general public.

2.  If you were inclined to vote CDU-CSU, but hated the Chancellor candidate they offer....the next best or closest option to that political thinking....is the FDP Party.

3.  Finally, if you were discussing the coalition building business....I think it gets pretty messy and this might be a bigger problem than the election itself.  

Car Political Chatter

 At the beginning of 2021....Germany had around 309,000 electrical vehicles registered in the country.

The general goal by the Green Party....by 2030?  Fifteen-million electrical vehicles.

I sat and pondered over the goal.

There is a upward trend on the numbers improving each year, and Tesla promises to be producing their car in Germany by the end of 2021.  To say that Germans are fondly attracted to the E-cars?  No....I can't say that.

I did the Audi Etron test-drive two years ago and would generally give a thumbs up on the vehicle.  But if you considered the cost factor (69,000 Euro), and the time of recharging it....my interest lagged.  I also questioned how I'd use it when driving across Europe and if enough charging stations really existed.

So the game being played by the Greens....would suggest that in nine years...they'd add 14.7-million E-cars.  My best guess is that we might hit 4-million by 2030, and a fair number of politicians will start talking about 2040 being the next big hope on the 15-million number.

A populist front arising and taking down the gas/diesel plan to halt new car sales by 2030?  I actually might suggest that as 2025 comes up for the national election....this odd suggestion might become a top three political topic.  

Electrical Outage

 This is an unusual story, and the police are in the middle of it...investigating.

So a fire started up on Friday morning (3 AM) with a electrical-cable renovation site....that affected a fair amount of electricity to neighborhoods on the eastern side of Munich (Bavaria).

Around 150 transformer stations then failed.  

Outage time?  Almost 24 hours.

What the authorities in town say is that around 20,000 residences were in affected area.

So, to the main question now....arson?  BR, public TV for Bavaria has a good update on the story.

Oddly, around a year ago....same time period....another fire was set, which affected BR radio transmission.  Connection?  Nothing yet, but that fire was supposedly arson.  

Germany, Bits of News

 1.  The European Song Contest (2021) ended last night (around midnight)......Italy was crowned as the winner.  German participant?  Jendrik, with his song....'I don't feel hate'.   Sort of a slam on the hate-crowd type of song.  

On points?  3.....just about rock bottom.  On audience participation potential points?  Zero.  The social agenda gimmick definitely didn't work. 

2.  Search warrant done on the AfD Party's regional 'boss' in Thuringia (Höcke) yesterday.  Not a lot said so far.

3.  State after state, opening with Corona numbers decreasing.  Tourism up over the past week or two.  

Greenish Chat

 There's a great column on FOCUS this morning by columnist Jan Fleischhauer, and he talks to this one unescapable election dilemma for Germans this year....the Green Party agenda.  I'd strongly recommend a read of the commentary.

Basically, he drives at the Green Party 'promises' and asks the question....can you really afford this, as a common German working man?

He points out several odd things in this bold political world we live in.

First, among political leanings....the folks who are more drawn to SUVs?  No, it's not members of the CDU, CSU, FDP, or SPD parties.  Around 16-percent of people who say they vote 'Greenish'.....are drawn to the SUV vehicles.  Highest of any group.  Even though they hate SUVs in almost every chat....that they deliver.

The electrical bill business?  Germans today pay more than any European group, for old-fashioned electricity.  If you pull a Green into the cost chat.....they can't really explain why, but they can detail their objectives....which all lead to MORE costs in the future.

Fleischhauer brings up a problem with the Green agenda which has openly been admitted: 'we all need to do without, but nothing is restricted'.  It's one of those comments that your 12-year old kid might offer, asking for 5-Euro increase in the allowance, but offering NO any additional chores or responsibilities.  His slant is that you'd feel better, giving him 5 more Euro a month.  

It's a general problem....you'd like have some Green 'things' (bike paths, more access to nature, better but lesser regulation for farmers, etc).  But then you look at the cost impact and kinda realize....you can't afford the 'promises' and all the baggage it brings in.

Logical Green Question: Could You Mandate All New Home Builds Include a Solar Panel Deal?

 Well....it's on the discussion table and some folks are asking questions over this election topic.  Even if you passed such legislation, it'd be challenged in the courts, and highly questioned.

Personally, having done research before on the idea of solar panels for the house....I found issues and it was enough at that point for me to say no.

You need to have a side of your roof that readily faces the path of the sun.  One side of my roof met that condition....the other side was not going to work well.

The space for the batteries?  You need a space either in the garage or basement....where the battery packs could be stored.  

If you are building a two apartment house and sharing out the power?  There's nothing presently that would make sharing a simple idea.  The technician I talked to....kinda hinted....either I had a whole second set of batteries, or just did this for my part of the house only.

The idea that the government would never come to property-tax me, or electrically-tax me....with the solar roof?  There's simply not a solid promise or law existing.

Trying to make this work with an apartment or condo building?  Well....maybe if they had solar panels for the side of the building....this might work....but the number of batteries required?  It'd probably take up the entire basement of the building.  Don't even bring up the fire-safety element of this discussion.  

Political Chatter

 This past week....Markus Soder (Premier-President of Bavaria, head of the CSU Party, and had figured to be the CDU-CSU Chancellor candidate until last month's executive committee meeting of the party)...came out with an interview statement.  N-TV came with the statement with the interview.

What Soder hints at, if the Greens win the September election....he wants the CDU-CSU to deny them as a coalition partner....to prevent the tax raises and regulations discussed.

So what are the options here on a coalition (with the CDU-CSU standing out)?

If the Linke Party only achieves six to seven percent, and the SPD likely to only get fifteen to sixteen percent...the ONLY option is a Green-SPD-FDP situation. 

The FDP in this case?  They will stand in the way of any significant tax situation or bans on in-country flights.  In fact, you could discount probably around two-thirds of all Green Party 'promises' in this type of scenario.

Soder becoming a 'pain-in-the-ass' for the CDU Party?  Yes, more or less.

It wouldn't even surprise me if the CDU engages in a coaltion chat with the Greens....to discover that the CSU folks won't participate and the lack of numbers for the CDU Party from the election makes this effort impossible to achieve.  

Germany and Covid-19: 22 May 2021

 1.  Total number of infections since day one out of 83-million: 3,643,806 (Wiesbadenaktuell numbers).

2.  Total number of deaths since day one: 87,212.

3.  Roughly 39-percent of the population have been vaccinated on the first shot.....around 13-percent have completed the second shot.

4.  Locally (my town of Wiesbaden).....263 have passed on (out of 290k residents).  The vast majority of this group are over the age 70, and I'd take a educated guess that the bulk of the group were over age 80.  Wiesbadenaktuell does sum up each day, and if the hospital releases the age....they put it into the public summary.  

5.  If you lived in a house/home where one occupant was tested positive, that person is counted as an infection.  With that....comes a note around three days later from the county health authority....telling the other adult persons in the home to be quarantined with the test positive person.  If the second person has the same symptoms but isn't tested?  He or she....doesn't count toward the national infection number. 

In my case, the wife was tested positive and I had the same symptoms around two days later....but I was never tested.  So I didn't count.  

So this 3.6-million number for infections since day one?  It's probably unrealistic, and one might suggest that the real number is closer to 5-to-6 million.  

6.  There was a brief discussion in the state of Lower Saxony this week....over the idea of dumping masks in retail/storefronts, if the local infection rate dropped below 35.  The idea was eventually dropped.

Around the country, there are differing views on the mask business, and some (I'd suggest around 60-percent) are in some way pro-mask.  Even if the state would drop the requirement....I suspect for years....the pro-mask crowd would continue to wear it.  

Conviction Story

I've essayed a couple of pieces over the murder of a gay guy (also heavily wounding his partner) in Dresden back in October 2020....by a radicalized Islamic refugee guy.  

This week, there's an update....the case in court ended....the 21-year old has been sentenced to life in prison.  MDR did a decent update and it's worth reading.

An added precaution?  Well....preventative detention was written into the sentence...meaning maximum security.  Based on the commentary I've seen over the past couple of months....there's a fair amount of fear that he'll kill again, if given a chance.

The dead guy and his associate?  From NRW, and both were in their 50s.  They were walking in the tourist area of town (an area I'd been to in 2018) and generally considered ultra-safe.

All of this drawing attention from the left, the right, and the gay groups of the region?  Yes, oddly enough.  

The thing that gets me about this case....he'd already been identified as a radicalized individual, actually having done jail-time for a totally separate crime, and been realized only about a week prior to this murder episode. Various public safety individuals could have stepped up and ensured the guy was deported the moment that he exited jail....but just didn't act.  

Now?  He'll spend the next fifty-odd years in the German prison system and probably have to be considered a threat for every single day.....against the guards.   

The 'Second-Guy' Story

 I've essayed probably five or six times over the terror attack at the Berlin Christmas market back in December 2016.  This was over at the Breitscheidplatz location of town.

The guy involved? Anis Amri....refugee, and he died in Italy around ten days later....killed by the Italian police.

The thing is....the police and the commission are stuck with a case that can't be fully closed.  A lot of public attention was focused on the event and I would suggest a fair amount of embarrassment came out of this whole story.

Presently?  Well....in this tractor-trailer rig that he used to plow into the market area....there's his DNA, and then there's 'other' DNA, and it doesn't match up to the original driver.

Speculation?  Just about everyone in the commission is convinced that Amri had a second person with him on this terror attack.

Chief suspect?  A 22-year old guy who is already known in other ways to the police.

Federal folks and their comments?  Well, I sat and read through the RBB (public TV reporting).....the feds seem to have no interest in comparing the DNA.  Zero. They want to stick with the lone driver/guy in the cab.

What it appears like?  Only my speculation....but whoever this second guy (known to the police) is....he's in some kind of undercover situation and working for the federal police.  

The odd thing....the federal police have filled in some of the known items for the guy, but it's their information....not confirmed by journalists or third-parties.  Maybe the guy is a fake identity individual?  Well...it'd normally be silly to suggest this, but if you look at this Bundeswehr guy who presented himself as a fake Syrian....it wouldn't shock me if this guy in Berlin who was a 'friend' of Amri....was also a fake refugee.  

Maybe I'm thinking too much on conspiracy chatter....but it is a bit strange how this case has been handled.  

After Day One of Franco Case

 Court opened up in Frankfurt yesterday, against this Bundeswehr soldier....Franco.  I essayed a bit on this case from two days ago (for reference)....guy accused of posing as a fake refugee, and for acquiring a gun in Austria. 

So court opened up yesterday and the guy didn't shy away from public statements outside of the court room.  Highly defensive of his situation and sees himself a 'victim' of the court prosecution folks.  

If you ask me....the judge will likely step in today and demand he stop making public statements.  It is a bit unusual that people go on an offensive like this, and the news folks....had to make a pitch to hype the charges against him. 

Second issue....these "Dies Irae" posters in the showcases out front of the court?  Well....it reads: "Up to 20 percent right-wing extremist soldiers? A peak since 1945!" (yeah, a bit sarcastic and cynical)

The Dies Irae campaign?  It's been going on for a year or so, and it's mostly a slam against the journalists and politicians trying to hype right-wing extremism in Germany.  In their mind, every time you turn around....there's another right-wing extremist (hiding in the bushes).

How the court will go on Franco?  Unknown.  I personally think the weapons element should have been tried in Vienna, under their law.  Even if they convict him on this charge.....the Constitutional Court will probably come around to this and throw it out later.  Licensed to have a weapon?  That hasn't been openly discussed.  

On posing as a fake refugee?  Well....if they really dwell on this....it makes the German system at the time....look pretty crapped-out.  Is there a German law to forbid German citizens from being fake refugees?  I'm not that sure....course, he did get some kind of 'pocket-money' via this deal (it would appear), and that would be illegal in some way.  If he did get 'pocket-money', I'd be curious what he spent on (candy, beer, exotic women, or just handed it to another refugee to spend)?  

As for convicting on right-wing extremism?  It's anyone's guess how this will go. 

On the journalists side, they've spent a lot of time hyping this story and it'd be a damn-shame if the court case failed.  

Unique Accident

 Rather odd car accident from last night in my region....on B62 (secondary road, not a autobahn)....between Biedenkopf and Dautphetal.

What the cops say is that the car came through a forest area, and some deer came into the road....impacting the car.

Deer came through the windshield....hitting the passenger and killing them both (passenger and deer).

Since it was a b-series road....car probably wasn't going more than 100 kph.  

Covid and This Digital 'Stamp'?

 The EU has been working hard on idea of a Covid vaccination 'slip' (digital in nature) that you'd haul around on your smart-phone.  They've been busy the past week or two....hyping up all their fine work and accomplishments. 

I brought up to the German wife, and asked....what if you don't have a smart-phone?  This got this stupid look but she readily agreed....probably 10-percent of German society doesn't have a smart-phone.

I looked it up.  Statista says that 60.74 million Germans in 2020....had smart-phones. Total population of Germany?  83-million.  

You can walk into any immigration or refugee center, and 99-percent have a smart-phone.  You can step on a city bus at 7:15 AM, and find that 99-percent of the kids are chatting or texting on their smart-phones.  You can ask most housewives shopping, and 99-percent of them have a smart-phone.

Now, if you asked about the old-style flip-phones or the plain 20-Euro cheapo phones, I'd take a guess that another 5 million Germans have that type (particularly the over 65-age group, and the non-technical types).  

Last year, for some news documentary piece, they interviewed a 40-year old German who had no carry-around phone at all....refusing the technology and feeling more comfortable without connectivity.  He admitted the laptop at home, but simply noted that life was pretty simple without the carry-around phone.

So all this effort by the EU for a digital slip that would be on your smart-phone....might not resolve everything?  It's probably around 10-percent of Germans who just don't fit into the EU profile.  

Berlin Scene

 If you live in Berlin....starting this Friday....restaurants (at least outdoor situations) and beer-gardens will be open.  The Covid-situation has been lessened.

To say that owners are happy?  No.

A  number of rules still apply and no one is getting the seating that they would have had back in 2019.  The odds this summer that seating arrangements will go back to the 2019 image?  Zero.  

So while they are open....they simply aren't making the cash flow that existed two years ago.  

Something That Rarely Occurs

 Yesterday, via RBB (public TV for the Berlin region).....the news folks had to issue an apology. 

The deal?

Well...Focus gives the best discussion of the item.

On Wednesday evening (via the prime-time 'Abendschau')....RBB covered the local protest of a pro-Palestinian demonstration in Berlin.  In simple terms....this coverage turned into a fairly one-sided report.....pro-Palestine. 

What was generally left out?  Any slant on the Israel position.  This demonstration was rather aggressive and had some violence within it.  Police arrests?  53 folks total.

So RBB came back on Thursday evening....after a fair number of complaints, and issued an apology....saying their reporting didn't meet the quality level that they typically aim for.

I would suggest, over the past year....almost all of the public networks have encountered criticism from viewers and while most have avoided an apology....they are on a path where the public would like reform and curtailing funding from public TV (not a good thing in the eyes of pro-public TV folks).  

Illner Show Chatter From Last Night

 Last night, after 10 PM, via ZDF (Channel Two, public TV in Germany), the public forum show 'Maybrit Illner Show' came on.  Now, I should say this....after 10 PM, the audience level potential is way down.  You don't watch it unless there's a topic which really attracts you.

The topic last night?  

"Everyone wants climate protection - nobody wants to pay for it?"

Yeah, it was a curious discussion, so my ten observations:

1.  The guests?  Georg Kofler (investor, capitalist, pro-business).  Robert Habeck (number two guy at the Green Party, and had been the key person for the Chancellor candidate up until January).  Maja Göpel (economist and pro-environmentalist), Pete Altmaier (CDU Party, extremely pro-business view, Minister for Economic Affairs and Energy), and Gerald Traufetter (Journalist, business editor for “Spiegel Magazine")

2.  So right off the bat, the Green agenda item on banning in-country flights came up and probably 50-percent of the hour was spent on this.  

The basic idea is that you would halt all flights stay in-country (example: Berlin to Frankfurt, Munich to Hamburg, etc).

How?  Habeck basically said.....yeah, it's either a gov't directed ban, or you insert a tax-fee into this which makes it a tough bill to pay.  

3.  How much of a 'tough bill'?  Unknown. 

Every time this comes up....no one ever wants to say the magic number to discourage you from a flight of Hamburg to Berlin (typical price right now, 176 Euro to 305 Euro...round-trip).  Bahn (railway price?  36 Euro).  

If you tacked a 100 Euro fee onto this?  I doubt if it would trigger less interest.  If this were 500 Euro minimum?  That might do it.  

I should state here, if you were flying from Hamburg to Munich, the typical cost if 175 to 250 Euro.  I should note as well....this is the pricing in the Covid era....and it might have been 20-percent cheaper back before Covid.

4.  Habeck on debate skills?  Lousy.  

At least thirty camera shots occurred in the first thirty minutes where Habeck had some childish look on his face as people argued against the Green agenda.  

In terms of selling the concept to the public....he gave it a 2-star effort.

5.  The idea of shifting everyone over to trains instead of flights?  There are several key issues here.

If you cut all in-country flights out of Berlin, you'd have to figure a one-third increase in ICE (long-distance railway) travel.  Are the trains there presently?  NO.  If you ordered the trains.....how long before they'd be delivered?  I would figure at least three years.  Could the trains run via the current grid or lines?  I would imagine certain routes (Hamburg to Berlin)....would be difficult to add twenty additional trains per day.

Are there a fair number of anti-Bahn (anti-railway travel) Germans?  Well....my German wife is one of those individuals, and it's just not on her list of happy things to do.  I would take a guess that a quarter of the population would not happily go to train travel.  My general view?  The AC units on ICE are crap, and it's not a positive thing to travel in June, July and August.  Running on schedule?  That's another issue that you really have to contend with.  

6.  Kofler on 'socialist planned economy'?  Well....he hit Habeck and the Green agenda pretty hard.  As he kinda noted.....they aren't businessmen and they don't necessarily grasp the planning and execution stages of business.

7.  At some point in this chatter....I sat and pondered, if it makes no sense to fly from Munich to Frankfurt, or Berlin to Munich.....wouldn't the same logic hold that you shouldn't fly from Hamburg to Amsterdam, or Hamburg to Copenhagen, or Berlin to Warsaw?  

This kinda stuck out.  You could add Frankfurt to Vienna, or Hamburg to Warsaw.  

8.  Altmaiers key point in the discussion?  Creativity generally has been the way to improve life or business processes....not bans.  

9.  Toward the second half of the show, they got to the rising or escalating prices of living in Germany.  Electricity, gas, heat.....all increasing.  As the moderator kinda asked around the table....who is really going to pay in the end.  This was an unpleasant moment for several folks at the table.

10.  Finally....selling this agenda to the public?  If you measured the response of a hundred Germans watching the forum show....the mass majority probably weren't hyped up or supportive of the flight bans/taxation.  

My gut impression is that the Greens simply made this a tough idea, and figure if they win.....a coalition issue will exist, and this will be a way to whittle this down to just a 25-Euro fee in the end for in-country flights.  

One final odd note: Ever since spring of 2020...Covid era....airport activity across Germany has been between 10 and 25 percent.  For the remainder of 2021?  The airline folks are simply hoping they get back to 50-percent of the traffic of 2019 by the end of this year.  Air travel in general is marginalized at present.  

Speed Chatter

 There was a German 'promi' who got into a discussion last night on some forum.  So the topic came around climate change, and what to do.

His response?  For people who need big vehicles (he used the phrase SUV).....they should be limited to 25 kph.  

It was perhaps a bit of cynical criticism, but it's the general path that German enthusiasts of climate change see necessary....just forcing people to change.

If you look around, there's plenty of hype to regulate the autobahn speed down to 130 kph.  I would go and speculate that within five years of forcing that issue....the speed would be regulated down to 100 kph....to say that it's necessary to save the planet. 

Public view of this autobahn speed thing?  I would suggest that if you went state by state....you'd find that most people in southern Germany don't support a speed limit deal on autobahns....while urbanized people do strongly support a speed limit.  

The 'If' Scenario

 With the 6th of June state election in Saxony-Anhalt....there's wild speculation that if the CDU Party does badly (2nd place situation)....that the executive committee of the CDU Party would meet and dump Laschet (the current candidate for Chancellor for the party). 

My thinking?  This would have to be a fairly bad loss (six points away from the winner)....to bring this miserable business to reality.

So who would then be considered?  Most on this 40-person committee aren't that favorable to consider CSU's Soder (the obvious person)....so you go to the 2nd group.

I would put the Health Minister (Spahn), the Defense Minister (AKK), and Merz on this short-list.

Bringing AKK back for consideration?  That's really a shocker and I think via her or Spahn....the Green Party would drop three or four points.  

All of this leading potentially to a CDU win?  It's probably a better chance than with Laschet.  

Don't Bring Up Transparency

 So this is a story that someone ought to write a 500-page book on, but I'll try to tell the story in forty lines.

Back in this period between September 2000 and April 2007....this 'group' came together as 'junior-Nazis'.  They were Beate Zschäpe, Uwe Böhnhardt and Uwe Mundlos.  All between early 20's and late 20s.  All were from former DDR....from the Jena area.

If you were going to gauge the three....they were a threesome in love and politics.  

Their agenda in this seven-year period?  Well...assassination (ten people dead).  The general target were Turks although there's one German killed, and one Greek (probably mistaking the guy as a Turk).

So here's the thing....at no time did the police get the idea of grouping the dead and suggesting that a programmed killing was going on.  Each of these murders were blamed back on the immigrant community.

In November 2011....the two guys were performing a bank robbery and reached a failed ending....with both killing themselves in the end.  Around a week after this....the female (Zschäpe) gave herself up. 

She basically would tell the whole story....if a 'deal' was made.  Once a kill-list came out (88 names on it, and a member of the Bundestag listed as well).....the 'deal' wasn't going to occur.

The court case starts in the spring of 2013, and goes on until late 2017 (yeah, it was an awful long and drawn out case, with tons of files dumped into it).  Verdict?  Zschäpe is guilty, along with four associates.  

Questions remaining?  There's a lot of argument to support that idea, or to deny that idea.  Some people think that insiders to the German law enforcement circle were helping the group in some minor way, and that suggestion gives a pretty negative feeling about the 'end' of this story.

Zschäpe got life in prison....the rest varying amounts of time from one year to ten years.

So, this came up in the Hessen news yesterday.  Various groups have been trying to get the data/files from the investigation phase to be open information.  The state government (run by the CDU and Greens) finally said 'NO'. 

The files/data is now set to secret status for a 30-year period. 

This kinda riled up the transparency crowd and the anti-conspiracy folks.  There's probably enough information there that a single guy trying to read and comprehend everything....would spend a decade of his life on the project.

Why keep it a secret?  No one is clear about this.

I would speculate that several occasions were occurring in the 2000 to 2007 period where police were marginally doing their job, and prosecution efforts weren't eager to open up a dynamic investigation. 

This 30-year secrecy business would help to shield poor decision making or incompetence.  

The idea that more murders occurred?  Well.....on social media, I noticed a person making that suggestion. Proof?  None.  I will admit....it would be a wild thing if an additional dozen murders could be tied in.  But you would think that the plain basic story is done. 

So this whole thing....a threesome love triangle....junior Nazi-players....killing 'machine'.....coming out of old DDR?  Yeah, it's that type of weird story.  The only thing you don't have is drug-usage.    

Bits of German News

 1.  Nord Stream II gas pipeline from Russia to Germany.  Trump had sanctions up to halt the project (roughly 90-percent done).  As Biden came into....the pro-pipeline German crowd felt relief, but Biden delayed his view of the pipeline.  Yesterday....Biden did the waiver for all of the remaining pipeline business, so it'll happen now.  End of the story?  Well, there's criticism over Biden's decision in the US but the pipeline will wrap up, and Nord Stream I (the old one from fifty-odd years ago through the Ukraine)....probably will shutdown within the next two or three years.

2.  Unusual May weather?  Well....the jet stream has flipped in the past four weeks, and there's a fair amount of rain from the Atlantic, with cooler (say 3 to 5 degree) temperatures.  While it's near 30 degrees C in Moscow....we were at 16 degrees C yesterday.  More rain forecasted?  Flooding is expected to start in the next week because of the excess of water.  

3.  New study done on Covid and public transportation in Germany.  The study says no additional risk if you ride the railway system.  The report is being criticized. 

4.  Green Party has a new agenda in open discussion.  N-TV discussed this in the AM today.  Name for program?  'Natural Climate Protection'.  So, it has a cost impact.  Around 10-percent of the collected revenue from the country's federal energy and climate fund would be spent to 'restore nature', and then lessen the effect of the climate crisis.  

Amount in this first part?  2.6 billion Euro.  The catch to this?  Well....there's going to be some kind of C02 trade going on with emissions.  Money will shift from one pocket to another pocket, and have some unknown value or lack of value.  

Late Night Interview

 Last night, if you were up late and watching the public TV chat forum (Markus Lanz) (on ZDF).....he had the Bavarian CSU politician Markus Soder, the guy who was hoping to be the CDU-CSU Chancellor candidate (and failed).

So at some point, Lanz asks Soder....if something did come up now....if the CDU held a new meeting and selected him....would he run as the Chancellor candidate?  Soder begged off and said it wasn't happening.

Lanz then asks a second time.  Same type of response.

Lanz then asks a third time. Response?  More or less....Soder says it's an absurd question.

Why pushing the question?

Well...in three weeks, the Saxony-Anhalt state election occurs, and some folks are suggesting now that the CDU will NOT win the election.  Some even go to suggest that the AfD Party might get a two or more points over the CDU Party.

The last poll (end of April)....CDU was ahead of the AfD Party by only two points.

Some people (certainly not a majority) think that if this election on 6 June goes badly....the CDU will have a VIP meeting for the party, and discuss dismissing Laschet as their current choice as Chancellor-candidate.

My speculation?  A majority of the forty-odd VIPs within the party absolutely do NOT want Soder....even if he is the only person that could win the September election for the CDU-CSU Party.  

Scandal Activity

 A couple of weeks ago, I essayed a piece or two....over the German politician Franziska Giffey (SPD Party) and her thesis trouble.  At the time, the university for her degree were going back to review the paper, and hinted strongly that they felt the thesis would not pass the review.

Well...this morning...it's done.  Degree is withdrawn, and Giffey steps down from the Minister for the Family Ministry.  Intention now?  She says she'll stay in the party and is running for the mayor of Berlin position.

Hyped up sense for the empty seat?  I'm sure by tomorrow that the SPD Party will have a name to submit.  I'll also suggest that the person does not hold anymore than a bachelor's degree.  

As for the possibility of getting the mayor 'win'?  I'd give it less than a 20-percent chance at this point.

So was this knowledge of the degree issue known for a while?  No one says.  It would not shock me if someone in the CDU Party had evidence in their hand for three years and played the card at this point to settle a score in political payback.

Dresden Jewel Update

 Back at the end of 2019....I essayed a piece or two over the Dresden jewel theft involving the 'Green Room'.  The value of the jewels stolen?  Minimum of one-billion Euro. 

Most security folks would have said the design and capability of the 'vault' was enough, and this crew who robbed the place....probably had spent a fair amount of time thinking over how to conduct this theft.

About a month into the investigation....the cops latched onto this crime-family gang in Berlin.  Enough clues, but getting the members was a problem.

N-TV brought up the topic this morning, and it's taken a twist or two.

The crew or gang?  Remmo.  They have an interesting history.  For a long time, they were based out of southern Turkey (Mardin).  At some point in the 1930s....they moved into Lebanon.  As the Lebanese Civil War started up in the 1980s....the family packed up and moved to West Berlin.  They have been there ever since.

Their chief practices?  Theft, trafficking in stolen property, arms trafficking, murder, drug trafficking, robbery, extortion, bodily injury, and money laundering.

Generally, in Berlin....if you were looking for a group with absolutely no fear of the police or prosecution folks....this would be the crowd.  I would classify them as PhD-level 'scientists' in the art of crime.  

So the cops have now found the five guys they suspect of the jewel heist.  

The jewels?  Well...they haven't been found.

The odds that they may never be recovered?  Here's the thing....there's only a handful of people in the world who'd have some desire for them, and willing to pay a fair amount of money for them.  If you were asking street-value for the stolen jewels....I'd seriously doubt you could get more than hundred-million (you could never display them).  A Russian billionaire or two might be the only sources for the jewels.

But behind this....I suspect the Remmo group are still sitting on the billion-Euro jewel package and it's more of a status-symbol than anything else.  Every non-Remmo gang around Berlin has to admire the way this was pulled off, and the lack of fear on the gang's part with the police/law.  

If the Berlin police fail to recover the jewels?  I think this is the top scenario to consider.  And it wouldn't surprise me if the gang already has the next big heist in their mind to continue their status-building.