Last night, after 10 PM, via ZDF (Channel Two, public TV in Germany), the public forum show 'Maybrit Illner Show' came on. Now, I should say this....after 10 PM, the audience level potential is way down. You don't watch it unless there's a topic which really attracts you.
The topic last night?
"Everyone wants climate protection - nobody wants to pay for it?"Yeah, it was a curious discussion, so my ten observations:
1. The guests? Georg Kofler (investor, capitalist, pro-business). Robert Habeck (number two guy at the Green Party, and had been the key person for the Chancellor candidate up until January). Maja Göpel (economist and pro-environmentalist), Pete Altmaier (CDU Party, extremely pro-business view, Minister for Economic Affairs and Energy), and Gerald Traufetter (Journalist, business editor for “Spiegel Magazine")
2. So right off the bat, the Green agenda item on banning in-country flights came up and probably 50-percent of the hour was spent on this.
The basic idea is that you would halt all flights stay in-country (example: Berlin to Frankfurt, Munich to Hamburg, etc).
How? Habeck basically said.....yeah, it's either a gov't directed ban, or you insert a tax-fee into this which makes it a tough bill to pay.
3. How much of a 'tough bill'? Unknown.
Every time this comes up....no one ever wants to say the magic number to discourage you from a flight of Hamburg to Berlin (typical price right now, 176 Euro to 305 Euro...round-trip). Bahn (railway price? 36 Euro).
If you tacked a 100 Euro fee onto this? I doubt if it would trigger less interest. If this were 500 Euro minimum? That might do it.
I should state here, if you were flying from Hamburg to Munich, the typical cost if 175 to 250 Euro. I should note as well....this is the pricing in the Covid era....and it might have been 20-percent cheaper back before Covid.
4. Habeck on debate skills? Lousy.
At least thirty camera shots occurred in the first thirty minutes where Habeck had some childish look on his face as people argued against the Green agenda.
In terms of selling the concept to the public....he gave it a 2-star effort.
5. The idea of shifting everyone over to trains instead of flights? There are several key issues here.
If you cut all in-country flights out of Berlin, you'd have to figure a one-third increase in ICE (long-distance railway) travel. Are the trains there presently? NO. If you ordered the trains.....how long before they'd be delivered? I would figure at least three years. Could the trains run via the current grid or lines? I would imagine certain routes (Hamburg to Berlin)....would be difficult to add twenty additional trains per day.
Are there a fair number of anti-Bahn (anti-railway travel) Germans? Well....my German wife is one of those individuals, and it's just not on her list of happy things to do. I would take a guess that a quarter of the population would not happily go to train travel. My general view? The AC units on ICE are crap, and it's not a positive thing to travel in June, July and August. Running on schedule? That's another issue that you really have to contend with.
6. Kofler on 'socialist planned economy'? Well....he hit Habeck and the Green agenda pretty hard. As he kinda noted.....they aren't businessmen and they don't necessarily grasp the planning and execution stages of business.
7. At some point in this chatter....I sat and pondered, if it makes no sense to fly from Munich to Frankfurt, or Berlin to Munich.....wouldn't the same logic hold that you shouldn't fly from Hamburg to Amsterdam, or Hamburg to Copenhagen, or Berlin to Warsaw?
This kinda stuck out. You could add Frankfurt to Vienna, or Hamburg to Warsaw.
8. Altmaiers key point in the discussion? Creativity generally has been the way to improve life or business processes....not bans.
9. Toward the second half of the show, they got to the rising or escalating prices of living in Germany. Electricity, gas, heat.....all increasing. As the moderator kinda asked around the table....who is really going to pay in the end. This was an unpleasant moment for several folks at the table.
10. Finally....selling this agenda to the public? If you measured the response of a hundred Germans watching the forum show....the mass majority probably weren't hyped up or supportive of the flight bans/taxation.
My gut impression is that the Greens simply made this a tough idea, and figure if they win.....a coalition issue will exist, and this will be a way to whittle this down to just a 25-Euro fee in the end for in-country flights.
One final odd note: Ever since spring of 2020...Covid era....airport activity across Germany has been between 10 and 25 percent. For the remainder of 2021? The airline folks are simply hoping they get back to 50-percent of the traffic of 2019 by the end of this year. Air travel in general is marginalized at present.
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