So, for those who aren't aware...the majority of homes/apartment/residences in Germany are heated by natural gas (2019 numbers), at roughly 40-percent. Oil comes in second at around 29-percent. Rest? Mixture of pellets, coal, district hook-up, etc.
The Germans over the decades bought more and more natural gas from Russia, and in this sanctions period....the Russians have decided to 'stick-it' to the Germans by mostly cutting off the natural gas.
A normal German would look at the situation, as winter approaches, and worry about the cost/supply. A guy with a 75 sq meter place....modern furnace...tight windows....might have a 2020 bill for the year of 1,100 Euro. Right now, the warning letters are putting the 2023 bill at 3,000 Euro. So this guy is going to be desperate to save heat.
In this strategy, he'll decide to limit heat.
So he starts with the hours of low-heating, which typically were from 11 PM to 5 PM....where minimal heat was 'burned'.
He'll probably go and have for Monday through Friday....a second minimal heating period of 8 AM to 4 PM, if no one much was in the house/apartment.
He might also go and limit the home to 16 C (61 F), then try to use conventional heaters (ranging from 1,200 to 2,000 watts) to bring the temp up four degrees. This idea is what worries the government.
If 90-percent of these homes put a conventional heater up and used just one....sparingly, then it would not be a big deal. But if you had some guy running three of these....with the majority of people running two to three, then the grid would be having demands that it could not provide.
More power to be drawn.....from where? Well...the German culture is so hooked-up to environmental concerns....that coal and nuke power are regarded as 'evil', so just to suggest these....gets some folks all disturbed.
So this winter is worrisome because of the lacking natural gas, and the reasonable idea of using electrical heat to make up for the woes.
Lets add to this issue by the idea that these folks with 3,000 to 4,000 Euro of heat....will take the required money from their 2023 vacation money....which means the recession goes even deeper by the summer of 2023. That lousy 250 to 500 Euro the government is 'gifting' people? In the vast majority of cases....it just marginally eases the pain.
The worst case I've seen so far (from TV news)....was a retired couple who had a 160 sq meter home (modern place)....with natural gas heat, and the warning bill suggested his 1,600 Euro bill from 2021 would now go up to around 9,000 Euro. It kinda freaked them both out. I would imagine he'll clear a room or two for use, and avoid heating it.
All this leading some folks to go to heat-pumps? Well.....yeah, and solar as well. Some folks are looking at the pellet system for one central point in the home. But the solar experts are being hit in a massive way now, and if you tried to call them.....they'd likely respond that they will put you on the list but it'll be summer fo 2023 before they can get to you.
It's a mess, without much that the government can do. Adding to this....blame goes to Putin, and most Germans have this angry view of the war. The Germans will eventually climb out of this mess....probably in two years, and will vow never to buy anything from Russia, or to sell them anything. For an entire generation....Russia will end up being cut-off.
It's an odd story to lay out.
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