Five Russia Questions

 1.  Is there any chance remaining of Russia ending up with a victory?  

No.  

The 10 day war is now on six months, a week, and six days.  

While the arguing over lost tanks is worth discussing....once 1960s-era tanks started to be seen a month ago in the war zone, you can assume that probably half of the tanks have been lost to damage, or just left in the field because of a empty fuel tank.  

Some people have pointed out....tank crews are probably marginally trained and it wouldn't take much to abandon a tank in battle.  

At best, I would suggest that the Russians are in a 'cannot-admit-defeat' situation and only with Putin dying or passing on.....can we move to the next step.

2.  Is there any planning around the day of Putin being gone?

I would suggest that of the top hundred Oligarch folks.....virtually all of them are having weekly chats with Duma people, and the topic comes up.  There's probably a list of people, and I think the intent is to find one temp-guy to fill the shoes for six months, then have a election to solidify the Oligarch-picked guy.  The temp-guy won't be a big name figure and is probably a 'friend' of some sort of Putin right now.

3.  Is public support rock-solid for Putin presently?

Russians are both sarcastic and skeptical.  Just because Putin might pass on, no one really expects 'change'.  

If you assigned propaganda value to state TV?  Probably half of the over-30 crowd in Russia is in belief of what they see on TV, and that Nazis are everywhere in the Ukraine.

4.  Is there one sign of hardships to come for Russia?

Ball-bearing-wise, the freight-train situation is a question mark.  In the past month, around 10-percent of the trains have been removed because they can't produce quality ballbearings.  This will escalate in the fall, and you can figure 50-percent of the railway system is going to be locked down by 1 January.  Maybe China can pick up this business....maybe not.  Funny how this one key thing popped up.  

5.  The belief by Putin that he can influence Germans to lessen their support for the Ukraine?

He may have this opinion, and still believe Germans are weak.  But there has not been any signs of Germans giving in.