For over six years, fracking in Germany has been illegal, and a very negative topic with SPD and Green voters.
I would speculate at this point.....by January, it'll be a major topic in at least five German states, and political will be a problem.
So I offer the opinion that by late spring of 2023....fracking is going to be approved in some form. The Greens will probably into a tail-spin by summer of 2023, with a lot bickering seen on public TV.
As for the fracking having results by the end of 2023? That's where I'm going with this....the results will just start to roll in by that point, and probably create a serious change on natural gas/oil pricing (dropping like a rock).
So the Russia and Qatar edge? Well....their pricing will drop like a rock in the first quarter of 2024.
Note: There are only three state elections in 2023: May election Schleswig-Holstein, fall election in both Hessen and Bavaria. If you wanted to judge discontent.....I would watch these three elections closely.
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