There is a terrific piece at NDR (public TV for the Hamburg region) which talks about the reserves.
If you go by the numbers (government statistical data), then it's a pretty positive story. Three significant facts:
1. Natural gas consumption has trimmed back since the 'worry' started. Germans are presently using around 85-percent of what would be 'normal'.
2. The national reserves? If the numbers are correct....as they exit winter in 2023, forty-percent of the reserves (at present pace) will still be there. This would mean a normal winter.
3. Norway, Belgium and Netherlands have stepped up production and shipment of natural gas into Germany. A lot? No. But a percent here and there....does add up. Norway pretty much admits that they are at absolute top production and shipment.
The LNG game? Yet to be a player, but once the first ship docks and unloads....I suspect worries will drop a bit.
Pricing of natural gas? Another story (by NDR).
A year ago, 1 Kwh of natural gas was running at 5.8 Euro cents.
Today? The same 1 Kwh is running around 38 Euro cents for new customers. Yeah, existing customers (long-term) will pay less.
Six times the rate? Yeah, and that's really the heart of the issue. A guy who heated his place for 18 hours a day in the past....probably will try to go to 12 hour day where it's marginally heated when no one is around the home or people are sleeping.
It wouldn't shock me if working-class Germans kept their place heated to 16 C (61 F) and used an electrical heater to occasionally bounce the temp up four degrees.
If you were looking for real estate deals where large sized homes are selling for one-quarter less....then watch the market in the summer of 2023.
No comments:
Post a Comment