I watch a lot of business news and probably read through fifty-odd articles per day. All of this natural gas chatter in Germany goes mostly to the 'new' cost of things....being between three and five times what it was a year ago.
So my general question....once we emerge from winter in April of 2023.....will thing settle into a norm, and possibly retreat from this current situation?
I've come to the opinion that it will NOT return to a normal level, and this three-to-five times rate....will be the new norm, possibly for several years. The Russia cheap-route? Well....the gimmick worked to the point....that now, it won't work.
What's this translate to? Three big issues:
1. Industry that made profit and provided jobs in Germany.....will not be able to compete against countries that had a interior supply or non-Russian situation going on. You will see a rapid slow-down in German profits over the next year or two. Jobs will be a problem.
2. Natural gas heated homes will go through a transition. Even if you had a a relatively new furnace.....your view will be that a cheaper method has to be procured, or an alternate heating method established. I'm not saying solar is the answer....just that something has to evolve on a fast basis.
3. Fracking will be accepted by the public in Germany.....even if environmentalists are wired to be against it. By spring of 2023, I will predict that this is a top ten issue, and will be something that more than half the population accepts.
Social unrest coming? Well....it will affect voting but there are only three elections at the state level in Germany for 2023.
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