To an American, there's not much to really put your hands around and grasp the significance of this event unfolding in Greece. If you watched strictly US news....you get the idea....Greece is broke and it will default shortly. Some US analyst will talk about the problems with socialism, and some think-tank guy will chat over tax avoidance by most Greek millionaires.
If you watch German or British news.....you get a bigger picture and more details. Over the past month, I'd take a guess that between the morning news cycle and the evening news cycle.....there's probably 90 minutes a day minimum dedicated toward Greece on Channel One (ARD).
Last night, the political chat forum for Gunther Jauch, you got a full hour-long chat forum that got fairly heated with a mix of Jauch, one fairly smart and clever Greek guy, a news guy, a retired conservative political figure from Bavaria, and a financial expert. At some point in the discussion.....the Greek suggested that Germans ought to go and do a pension reform deal and cut their pay-outs to Germans (that would never happen). His emphasis is that Germans can't expect Greeks to make an impossible cut either.
If you look over the vacation information sites....they all emphasize as of today (Monday), if you are traveling to Greece....you'd best carry your Euro from home with you because the ATM machines will likely all be shut down. If you do find some operating.....the max you can remove on any day is 60 Euro (enough eat off of but that's about it). Cashless transactions (credit cards) still continue on and folks tend to think tourists will simply shift to the credit card and pay the small fees involved. For Americans who haven't traveled much around Europe.....a lot of folks will accept credit cards, but a fair number will charge you for this service.
What makes this week epic? Well....there is a deal from the EU to Greece on the table. It involves cutting the budget and making some hard changes to Greek government spending. The government of Greece didn't want to make the decision (yeah, it's that bad). So, they are taking the package to the public and there will be a vote next Sunday in Greece. Only after the vote....will you know the outcome and direction of the Euro.
A bad week for stock markets in Europe? Yeah. I'd expect a minimum of a three-percent drop by Friday. They've already announced today that the Greek stock market will be shut down for the whole week. Tumbling across and affecting the US stock market? I'd go ahead and prepare myself for at least two days this week of 250-point per day downward trends.
As for what happens if Greece says 'no' on the vote? Monday of next week would be a very curious day. As for all the money loaned by Germany to Greece so far? If it goes 'no'.....I wouldn't expect any of the money to ever come back. Some Germans will be testy about that, and fairly frustrated. Even if they vote 'yes', I'd have some doubts about loans ever being paid back.
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