More Greek Opera

If you stand back and observe the Greek opera unfolding.....you'd be mostly in amazement at the various schemes underway.

Number one.  Imagine you bought a new car and the dealer hands you a 200-page operators manual.  For most folks, there might be three or four problem areas which they'd read up on (the instrument panel, or light control for example).  Maybe ten-percent of people would actually read the whole document in its entity.

Well, in the Greek episode.....as complicated as the EU-Greece agreement reads....there are pages and pages of economic and financial information which lays out the path that Greece would take, in order to get the new money.

Greece wants to hold a quick national vote on Sunday, to see if the public agrees with the agreement or not.

How many people will actually read the EU-Greece document?  My humble guess is that less than two percent will do it, and only half of them will clearly understand the obligations involved or the consequences if you decline.

Here in.....lies a fairly serious problem.  Taking a complicated problem to the public is awful risky.  Lets say out of a hundred registered voters.....only a few read the whole thing.  More eighty percent are probably going to vote the way that their particular political party suggests to vote (Greece has literally dozens of parties).  But let's say all of this is so stupid in the minds of people....that half the registered voters simply stay home.

Even if the current party in charge of the government says to vote "NO" (they've already come out and suggested that's the push right now)......enough "YES" votes might accidentally exist to throw things in entirely the opposition direction.

I read a piece this morning that says the political party running the government is saying that they will quit....if the vote goes toward "YES".  You'd typically shake your head and then ask why did they bother with the stupid vote, if they've already decided the action they will take?  It makes no sense.

Number two.  Across the business news items this morning.....the Greeks hinted that if the EU tries to throw them out of the EURO.....they will sue in court.  Oddly, they note that nothing was ever written into the EU constitution to use as a method to throw someone out.  I suspect they might be right about this.  Keeping Greece tied into the EURO? Well.....you could, but how would Greek banks continue to operate without any capital (if the EU doesn't provide loans)?

Number three.  If you look at normal business operations in Greece today (Tuesday).....things are open and running except for the banks.  People are fearful over transactions and limiting purchases....if you read through the local guy on the street.  As Monday arrives next week.....the effect of the vote will fall into place.  Without any more help from the EU....I don't see how banks would open for several weeks.  They'd have to keep some backdoor situation going for electronic transactions (tourism will survive on and they will spend at least a million a day around Greece with debit and credit cards).

Can a nation survive this way?  With only electronic cash and marginal EU bills in play?  I've never seen any business professional discuss a scenario like this.

Number four.  For some odd reason, I just don't see this political in charge of the government sticking around too long.  It seems like they advertised to provide some type of leadership and the bulk of Greek voters went with them.  The impression now is that they are there to lead them away from austerity (the big negative with most Greeks) to something else.  The thing is.....no one from the political party has said what the world of non-austerity will be like or how it would affect the typical guy on the street.

My humble view is that it all will come to some falling out and another election occurring by December.

A soap opera?  Yeah.  Although I'd take it to the next level.....a Greek-tragic-and-epic-thriller.