The Five Polling Organizations

 Germany has five organizations that I give a thumbs up to....being reliable on polls: INSA, YouGov, FG Wahlen, Forsa, and Allensbach.

This AM....lot of  chatter over weekend polling results.  Three of the five show AfD two to three points ahead of the CDU-CSU.  Allensbach shows CDU-CSU one point ahead  of the AfD.

SPD numbers on all three....crap (down in the 12-point range).

So I'll make three observations:

1.  Lefty-voters are split three ways: Linke, SPD, and Greens.  To a much lesser degree...even BSW (4-points) is pulling lefty-voters.

2.   Merz and his CDU-CSU crew....are marginally delivering any legislation that the public appreciates.

3.  For roughly three years after Covid ended as a big-deal....the SPD-Green-FDP  coalition marginally delivered, and the economy was simply 'floating'....the public felt Merz and the crew could deliver.  So here we are 16 months into the Merz era, and no real change.  

So I'll just say it....nothing about AfD policy really changes the economic trends.  The only slight suggestion is that if they did pursue a exit-policy on migrants....out of the 47-percent of non-Germans  on the state-welfare program....maybe half of them would be cut off the social-welfare fund. Beyond that...what Germans are seeking....AfD can't really provide that kind of change.