Ghetto is the least defined term in the English language.
Most folks think that the term 'ghetto' started up in Italy in the 1500s. It was supposed to have started up in Venice, Italy, and had some connection the Jews who lived in a particular 'quarter' of the city. In some ways, it was supposed to mean a highly populated or dense area of some town, with particular groups of low-income residents, and that 'quarter' or district was seen as run-down by the local population of the city.
You can go to several dozen westernized states or countries, and find ghetto-like conditions in effect. Some morphed into this over decades....some took just one single decade.
Europe as a whole....through the words of politicians....will say that no ghettos exist. Then you get into a car....drive through various urbanized areas of France, Germany, Sweden, Italy, etc....and quietly look at a neighborhood that fits the general description of a plain old-fashioned ghetto.
In most cases, what you will find through historical situations, is that a economic growth occurred, demanding more labor. This labor is not necessarily high-tech or craftsman-like skills....but the type that a journeyman or ranked-amateur might possess. So they move into this city or town, and take up jobs. Their pay-scale is not at the high end. They look for affordable housing. And they take residence.
At some point, that neighborhood which has the new labor residents, will come to grasp that large numbers of these workers are not natives of the country, and are more of a migrant-worker than anything else.
These neighborhoods go through a stage of older residents moving out, and newer (migrant-type) families moving in. There's nothing to prevent this, nor would you go and create some stupid rule to say only 10-percent of a neighborhood can be migrants.
After a while, you start to notice in these ghettos....there's a couple of different categories of migrants. There's the group which really wants to integrate, be part of society in this new nation, and enjoy the fruits (economic success, safety, stability, limited corruption, etc).
Then you have the group which just kinda arrived....mostly in a shock stage even at the one-year point....and grumbles daily because it's outrageous on the cost-of-living/taxes and just too many stupid rules.
Then you have the group which realize their craftsmanship abilities are non-existent and other than stocking shelves in some grocery or washing dishes at a restaurant.....they will never make enough money to enjoy life....so they discover that selling drugs is profitable and engage in this new trade to succeed in life. This is also the group that bands together other loser individuals, forms up gangs, and establishes their 'territory' within their new land.
The ghetto goes through growing pains as the residents now come to realize that there just aren't any residents from this society around them....it's just other immigrants. Then they come to realize that various youth-gangs have formed up and tend to be up things that bother or irritate the residents. And finally, when the crap has really hit the fan and they need cops to re-establish order....the cops really aren't capable of handling this type of environment....so when you call for the cops, it's not a normal crew of two guys, but a squad group of ten, with four cops out front and guarding the vehicles that they arrived in (only in force will they come).
The country itself now? Well....they have a birth-rate and reproduction problem, and the wise-guys felt that any immigration was a good idea, but then come to realize that you needed to funnel these people through, determine integration potential, and limit entry to a degree. But now? It's a bit too late. And the cops just grin when you chat about this in public and try to soften the crime aspects of this new society.
You could talk about getting strict and enforcing the law, but that means arresting a large number of the new migrants/immigrants, and that gets negative press coverage by your elitist journalists. So you just let the issue lay there and hope that something comes along to fix it. Gang-wars would be a plus because they'd attack each other and eventually take down their own numbers. If you look at Sweden over the past six months....there are minor examples of gang-wars going on. You see the same episode in Duisburg, Germany....where several gangs are now hyped up against each other and street episodes occur every couple of weeks.
It is.....what it is. You can't undo this or go through some revision. You will simply have to learn how to deal with this and eventually enlarge your police force. Life in Europe has permanently changed.
Sunday, March 19, 2017
The Costco Change Coming to Iceland
We are almost within sixty days of a significant change in Icelandic commerce.....a Costco (the first on the isle) will open. For those who've never shopped at the US store....it's a warehouse retailer that sells in bulk for a discounted price.
To be honest, Iceland has never had anything like Costco....ever.
Oh, there's plenty of grocery stores (at least in Reykjavik and the far west side of the island), and there'a fair number of clothing shops (at least in the capital). But no one has ever come in and done a lot of competition.....so hefty prices are a dismal part of the Icelandic landscape.
As a kid, I grew up in a rural area which had two or three major store-fronts, and at least a dozen grocery stores in the local area of the US where I lived. One day....Wal-Mart came. Within a decade....the two major store-fronts were mostly gone, and the grocery store operations had taken a fair hit. In some parts of town.....they survived. But they were all forced into a more competitive direction.
I see this with stores that exist in Iceland, but in a totally different fashion.
There aren't a lot of studies to talk about shopping in Iceland. There are 332,000 residents to Iceland....a vast number of those reside on the far west side of the island. For Reykjavik and the surrounding area..,there's roughly 220,000. If you figure residents outside of that 'civilized area' but within a four-hour drive of Reykjavik....there's probably another 40,000.
The real question to ask then, out of this combined group of 260,000.....how many will go and sign up for membership with Costco, especially in the first hundred days? I'll bet on 50,000 memberships in that hundred-day period.
If Costco can undercut the normal sales price for items by 15-percent (my guess), then I think it'll be a large group of people shopping there. In fact, driving five or six hours to get there, and then buy in bulk (easily spending a thousand Euro in value) might be a habit that you see developing.
All of this would unsettle the regular grocery operations....undercut their profits, and likely send 50-percent of them within the next couple of years to shut down.
Somewhere out there, there out to be some underused PhD character, who'd like a one-year period in Iceland to study this one approaching change in an entire nation's spending habits and shopping routine. It would be the study of a lifetime. In less than one year....changing a third of an entire culture into bulk-buyers.
To be honest, Iceland has never had anything like Costco....ever.
Oh, there's plenty of grocery stores (at least in Reykjavik and the far west side of the island), and there'a fair number of clothing shops (at least in the capital). But no one has ever come in and done a lot of competition.....so hefty prices are a dismal part of the Icelandic landscape.
As a kid, I grew up in a rural area which had two or three major store-fronts, and at least a dozen grocery stores in the local area of the US where I lived. One day....Wal-Mart came. Within a decade....the two major store-fronts were mostly gone, and the grocery store operations had taken a fair hit. In some parts of town.....they survived. But they were all forced into a more competitive direction.
I see this with stores that exist in Iceland, but in a totally different fashion.
There aren't a lot of studies to talk about shopping in Iceland. There are 332,000 residents to Iceland....a vast number of those reside on the far west side of the island. For Reykjavik and the surrounding area..,there's roughly 220,000. If you figure residents outside of that 'civilized area' but within a four-hour drive of Reykjavik....there's probably another 40,000.
The real question to ask then, out of this combined group of 260,000.....how many will go and sign up for membership with Costco, especially in the first hundred days? I'll bet on 50,000 memberships in that hundred-day period.
If Costco can undercut the normal sales price for items by 15-percent (my guess), then I think it'll be a large group of people shopping there. In fact, driving five or six hours to get there, and then buy in bulk (easily spending a thousand Euro in value) might be a habit that you see developing.
All of this would unsettle the regular grocery operations....undercut their profits, and likely send 50-percent of them within the next couple of years to shut down.
Somewhere out there, there out to be some underused PhD character, who'd like a one-year period in Iceland to study this one approaching change in an entire nation's spending habits and shopping routine. It would be the study of a lifetime. In less than one year....changing a third of an entire culture into bulk-buyers.
Saturday, March 18, 2017
The Problem of Too Much Success
A decade ago....there were a total of seventeen North American and European cities which had some flight access into Keflavik, Iceland. Tourism was something that occurred, but wasn't some hyped up activity. Iceland was in a period of economic prosperity and didn't really care if tourists came or not.
In 2008....things changed. An economic downturn. A huge impact on jobs and prosperity. A wave of negative thoughts were on the minds of most Icelandic people.
By 2010, some individuals saw tourism as being something that could reshape Iceland. Today, there 78 different North American and European cities which have access to Iceland. At least seventeen different carriers now make trips into Iceland....some all-year round....some just in the summer months.
This past week....Grímur Sæmundsson, who serves as the chairman of the Icelandic Travel Industry Association, came out and had a speech over the trend, and problems that people see. An all-time record of people in 2016 came (1.8 million visitors). Frankly, it's way beyond expectations, and testing the faith of Icelanders.
Sæmundsson says that Keflavik International Airport needs to be limited to airlines which only do all-year round flights, and that the summer carriers need to be forced to use Akureyri.
Akureyri?
Yeah, you probably haven't heard of the town. If you have a map, and on the west end of the isle....note the Keflavik Airport and Reykjavik.....then you look at the far north of the isle, on the coast, there rests Akureyri, a town of 18,000 people.
What Sæmundsson wants to do is spread tourists around the country....not by taxation or upgrading landing fees but simply forcing the part-time carriers to use other airports.
Is Keflavik Airport being maxed out? No. The airport is going through expansion plans and adding onto capabilities. Last year, they noted that they needed more employees in 2017 and were looking at the idea of bringing in some folks just for the summer months, from outside of Iceland. If you haven't noticed....the Iceland unemployment rate by late 2016 was at 2-percent and sliding further down. With a large tourist flow in 2017....they probably will go under the 2-percent point easily by late summer.
By some point in late 2017/early 2018.....two five-star hotels will open in Iceland. Prior to this....none existed. The two? The Blue Lagoon on the far west side (20 minutes south of the Keflavik Airport) will see one of these opened up....as sort of a wellness center/resort (don't be looking for fancy beaches). The other five star will be be the concert hall in the middle of the capital. Both are geared to take advantage of this tourism trend.
But why stop at five-star hotel construction.....across the whole country, there are various hotels under construction, and others being in draft form to discuss.
By suggesting Akureyri, you are putting people mostly in the middle of nowhere. It's a four-hour drive to reach Reykjavik or the Blue Lagoon. If your interest was staging a drive on route one around the whole isle, then it might make sense.....otherwise, the carriers would be dumping you in the middle of nowhere. Tour groups? It might make sense to stage some groups there and start your route one circle drive there, and lessen the stress on Keflavik.
My humble guess is that some folks are now asking questions about the limit. These are people who were used to the pre-2007 trend of 500,000 guests per year and feel a bit shocked at 1.8 million. The question from them would be.....could you handle 2.5 million guests a year.....or perhaps even 3 million?
It's kinda like being the authority over Disneyland, and knowing that there has to be some limit and some control to who comes and goes.
In 2008....things changed. An economic downturn. A huge impact on jobs and prosperity. A wave of negative thoughts were on the minds of most Icelandic people.
By 2010, some individuals saw tourism as being something that could reshape Iceland. Today, there 78 different North American and European cities which have access to Iceland. At least seventeen different carriers now make trips into Iceland....some all-year round....some just in the summer months.
This past week....Grímur Sæmundsson, who serves as the chairman of the Icelandic Travel Industry Association, came out and had a speech over the trend, and problems that people see. An all-time record of people in 2016 came (1.8 million visitors). Frankly, it's way beyond expectations, and testing the faith of Icelanders.
Sæmundsson says that Keflavik International Airport needs to be limited to airlines which only do all-year round flights, and that the summer carriers need to be forced to use Akureyri.
Akureyri?
Yeah, you probably haven't heard of the town. If you have a map, and on the west end of the isle....note the Keflavik Airport and Reykjavik.....then you look at the far north of the isle, on the coast, there rests Akureyri, a town of 18,000 people.
What Sæmundsson wants to do is spread tourists around the country....not by taxation or upgrading landing fees but simply forcing the part-time carriers to use other airports.
Is Keflavik Airport being maxed out? No. The airport is going through expansion plans and adding onto capabilities. Last year, they noted that they needed more employees in 2017 and were looking at the idea of bringing in some folks just for the summer months, from outside of Iceland. If you haven't noticed....the Iceland unemployment rate by late 2016 was at 2-percent and sliding further down. With a large tourist flow in 2017....they probably will go under the 2-percent point easily by late summer.
By some point in late 2017/early 2018.....two five-star hotels will open in Iceland. Prior to this....none existed. The two? The Blue Lagoon on the far west side (20 minutes south of the Keflavik Airport) will see one of these opened up....as sort of a wellness center/resort (don't be looking for fancy beaches). The other five star will be be the concert hall in the middle of the capital. Both are geared to take advantage of this tourism trend.
But why stop at five-star hotel construction.....across the whole country, there are various hotels under construction, and others being in draft form to discuss.
By suggesting Akureyri, you are putting people mostly in the middle of nowhere. It's a four-hour drive to reach Reykjavik or the Blue Lagoon. If your interest was staging a drive on route one around the whole isle, then it might make sense.....otherwise, the carriers would be dumping you in the middle of nowhere. Tour groups? It might make sense to stage some groups there and start your route one circle drive there, and lessen the stress on Keflavik.
My humble guess is that some folks are now asking questions about the limit. These are people who were used to the pre-2007 trend of 500,000 guests per year and feel a bit shocked at 1.8 million. The question from them would be.....could you handle 2.5 million guests a year.....or perhaps even 3 million?
It's kinda like being the authority over Disneyland, and knowing that there has to be some limit and some control to who comes and goes.
Explaining Trump to a German
I would suggest that sixty to seventy percent of Germans have simply moved on, and generally accepted the fact that Trump is the US President. A quarter of the German population has some driven purpose in Trump-denial, and five-percent probably still think that Obama is President (don't laugh, it's pretty much a fact with some of German society).
So when engaged, to explain how this all happened....I suggest the five 'triggers' or explanations on this.
1. While unbelievable to most....it is not a highest-vote type of election. It is a fifty-state election, and states are weighted in their electoral college votes to ensure each has a contribution to the election. It's NOT rocket science....it's routinely discussed in university courses, and throughout high school. You can attract all the votes you desire in urbanized zones like Atlanta, Memphis, Boston, Philly, Miami, etc.....but if you can't get a 270 vote via the fifty-state mechanism, then you won't win. You need a campaign which speaks to states, NOT to the individual.
2. Ever since the NAFTA Agreement of 1994, three US Presidents have come and gone....promising Americans jobs....which slowly drifted out to Mexico and China. The only real growth of jobs that you can establish is the burger-industry and government jobs. That's it. Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump both discussed jobs. Most people put Clinton into the category of the previous three presidents and had marginal faith in something happening. With Trump, there was belief that he might be able to reverse the trend and actually deliver jobs. If he delivers one-million new jobs into the market over the four years, then it will have been considered a success. If not, then the public will move on.
3. The middle-finger syndrome. Like it or not....a large number of the American public are fed up with the news media. They don't have any real trust in what is said or speculated about. So for these Americans.....Trump serves as a middle-finger. They want the news media to falter, stumble, and in cases collapse. As many times as German public TV journalists quote the NY Times or Washington Post....they've tended to have lost traction with the American public. Same story for CNN.
4. The two Americas. There's urbanized America, which leans mostly toward Democratic candidates and rural American which leans mostly toward Republican candidates. It has not always been this way, but in the past thirty years....more so. Seventy-percent of counties in America (3,000 of them) leaned more toward Trump, than Clinton. Suggesting that the rural America is not intellectual enough to grasp the situation....tends to get you noticed....that you aren't capable of grasping the change of the landscape or the priorities of the general public. Using the intellectual argument....just makes you look foolish in the end.
5. Loss of faith in the system. DC to most Americans has become some collection of 'empty-suit' actors, corrupted politicians, and lobbyists with various agendas. You can ask either working-class Republicans or Democrats....it doesn't matter, their faith has been shaken. They want something to change.
Like or not.....the system was built to deliver the prime selection of fifty states. It did what it was designed to do. If Trump wasn't qualified for the job, fine....but the system wasn't built to determine qualifications. If it had been.....you might not have seen either Clinton or Trump as President.
So when engaged, to explain how this all happened....I suggest the five 'triggers' or explanations on this.
1. While unbelievable to most....it is not a highest-vote type of election. It is a fifty-state election, and states are weighted in their electoral college votes to ensure each has a contribution to the election. It's NOT rocket science....it's routinely discussed in university courses, and throughout high school. You can attract all the votes you desire in urbanized zones like Atlanta, Memphis, Boston, Philly, Miami, etc.....but if you can't get a 270 vote via the fifty-state mechanism, then you won't win. You need a campaign which speaks to states, NOT to the individual.
2. Ever since the NAFTA Agreement of 1994, three US Presidents have come and gone....promising Americans jobs....which slowly drifted out to Mexico and China. The only real growth of jobs that you can establish is the burger-industry and government jobs. That's it. Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump both discussed jobs. Most people put Clinton into the category of the previous three presidents and had marginal faith in something happening. With Trump, there was belief that he might be able to reverse the trend and actually deliver jobs. If he delivers one-million new jobs into the market over the four years, then it will have been considered a success. If not, then the public will move on.
3. The middle-finger syndrome. Like it or not....a large number of the American public are fed up with the news media. They don't have any real trust in what is said or speculated about. So for these Americans.....Trump serves as a middle-finger. They want the news media to falter, stumble, and in cases collapse. As many times as German public TV journalists quote the NY Times or Washington Post....they've tended to have lost traction with the American public. Same story for CNN.
4. The two Americas. There's urbanized America, which leans mostly toward Democratic candidates and rural American which leans mostly toward Republican candidates. It has not always been this way, but in the past thirty years....more so. Seventy-percent of counties in America (3,000 of them) leaned more toward Trump, than Clinton. Suggesting that the rural America is not intellectual enough to grasp the situation....tends to get you noticed....that you aren't capable of grasping the change of the landscape or the priorities of the general public. Using the intellectual argument....just makes you look foolish in the end.
5. Loss of faith in the system. DC to most Americans has become some collection of 'empty-suit' actors, corrupted politicians, and lobbyists with various agendas. You can ask either working-class Republicans or Democrats....it doesn't matter, their faith has been shaken. They want something to change.
Like or not.....the system was built to deliver the prime selection of fifty states. It did what it was designed to do. If Trump wasn't qualified for the job, fine....but the system wasn't built to determine qualifications. If it had been.....you might not have seen either Clinton or Trump as President.
The Reparations Story
It's typically not a story which gets brought up in a German high school environment for a history lesson.....but roughly a century ago (1904 to 1908)....Germans occupied a region of southern Africa which is today Namibia (population of 2.3 million).
It's not a period which is positive on Germans.
Over this four-year period, genocide occurred. The numbers? Generally, it's guessed that between 30,000 and 130,000 died during the four-year period. Most came from two particular tribes, the Herero and Namaqua tribes.
The curious thing is that this wasn't a full-up war situation. It's more of a case where the tribes were pushed into compounds or camps....disease started up....limited food...and people died through exhaustion or disease.
All of this occurred during the Kaiser Wilhelm II's period....not from the Wiemar Republic, the Nazi era, or the Bundestag period since 1945.
In 2004, the German government came forward and noted an apology, and agreed that genocide had occurred. Compensation or reparations? No.
So, this week, we came to an interesting development.....Namibia has hired a few lawyers and surveying the idea of taking Germany to court.
The suggested amount? Twenty-eight billion Euro. You can do the math, it comes out to roughly 14,000 Euro per resident of Namibia.
The odds of winning? Unknown.
It might take ten years, and maybe in the end....Namibia wins nothing. Or maybe they could walk out shocked in that Germany agrees to some deal (maybe one billion Euro a year for twenty years).
Namibia is a curious country. You could fit two Germanys into the landscape of Namibia. Back a decade ago, there were reported to be 60,000 Germans a year to vacation in Namibia....I'd take a guess that it's double that number today. Roughly fifteen-percent of the economy of the country....feeds off travel and tourists. The other two sectors that produce vital income for the country are mining and agriculture. But with 2.3 million residents....there is a limit to what they can do.
What would Namibia do with the 28 billion Euro if they did win it? It's not laid out in any fashion. Some folks within the country would be fearful of corruption and that the money would just disappear in a matter of years with no real outcome.
Maybe the Germans might be smart and offer some deal where educational costs (from schools to university system) would be covered for twenty years....calling it a grant rather than reparations. In such a way, both parties would walk away satisfied.
Bottom line? This will eventually move up to front-page news, especially if the Germans lose the case.
It's not a period which is positive on Germans.
Over this four-year period, genocide occurred. The numbers? Generally, it's guessed that between 30,000 and 130,000 died during the four-year period. Most came from two particular tribes, the Herero and Namaqua tribes.
The curious thing is that this wasn't a full-up war situation. It's more of a case where the tribes were pushed into compounds or camps....disease started up....limited food...and people died through exhaustion or disease.
All of this occurred during the Kaiser Wilhelm II's period....not from the Wiemar Republic, the Nazi era, or the Bundestag period since 1945.
In 2004, the German government came forward and noted an apology, and agreed that genocide had occurred. Compensation or reparations? No.
So, this week, we came to an interesting development.....Namibia has hired a few lawyers and surveying the idea of taking Germany to court.
The suggested amount? Twenty-eight billion Euro. You can do the math, it comes out to roughly 14,000 Euro per resident of Namibia.
The odds of winning? Unknown.
It might take ten years, and maybe in the end....Namibia wins nothing. Or maybe they could walk out shocked in that Germany agrees to some deal (maybe one billion Euro a year for twenty years).
Namibia is a curious country. You could fit two Germanys into the landscape of Namibia. Back a decade ago, there were reported to be 60,000 Germans a year to vacation in Namibia....I'd take a guess that it's double that number today. Roughly fifteen-percent of the economy of the country....feeds off travel and tourists. The other two sectors that produce vital income for the country are mining and agriculture. But with 2.3 million residents....there is a limit to what they can do.
What would Namibia do with the 28 billion Euro if they did win it? It's not laid out in any fashion. Some folks within the country would be fearful of corruption and that the money would just disappear in a matter of years with no real outcome.
Maybe the Germans might be smart and offer some deal where educational costs (from schools to university system) would be covered for twenty years....calling it a grant rather than reparations. In such a way, both parties would walk away satisfied.
Bottom line? This will eventually move up to front-page news, especially if the Germans lose the case.
Erdogan and the Five-Kid Suggestion
About every other day, Erdogan of Turkey makes some comment that you kinda shake your head over, and wonder where that idea came from.
Yesterday, Erdogan put out a statement to Turks throughout Europe.....that they should proudly work on producing five kids.
The general problem throughout Europe, and especially in Germany....is that if tried to go with Erdogan's suggestion....the cost of living and one-step away from poverty situation would drive you crazy.
So you start with rent. Most Turks that reside in Germany.....will reside in larger urbanized areas (Heidelberg, Mainz, Essen, Berlin, Munich, etc). You go and examine rent prices for a three or four bedroom apartment, and you start freaking out. Maybe if you live 40 kilometers outside of Mainz....you might be able to find some affordable situation, but then you need a dependable car to take you into work.
Then you examine taxes, healthcare costs, pension contributions. Roughly forty to fifty percent of what you make will go toward those items. Maybe if you had a really great job, with technology advantages....there might be a hefty salary and a chance to get ahead, but out of a thousand Turks...most will end up in craftsman trades where it's an average income (probably 98-percent).
Having a vehicle to haul around a couple and five kids? If you are in the bottom forty-percent of salary....there's a problem in affording a big van. You certainly wouldn't be able to afford two vehicles.
Did Erdogan ask the Turkish career women their humble opinion? A lot of them have established themselves into a job opportunity, very happy with pay, and not driven to have more than one or two kids max.
Maybe in Turkey, you could afford to have five kids or more, but for most of Europe, it just makes no real sense. You'd be on the edge of poverty unless you had some fantastic job with serious pay advantages. With average education or less....you won't find such a job.
It'll be curious what Erdogan gets hyped up on next. Maybe he'll come up with some slogan or pitch to bring Germans back to the vacation resorts in Turkey?
Yesterday, Erdogan put out a statement to Turks throughout Europe.....that they should proudly work on producing five kids.
The general problem throughout Europe, and especially in Germany....is that if tried to go with Erdogan's suggestion....the cost of living and one-step away from poverty situation would drive you crazy.
So you start with rent. Most Turks that reside in Germany.....will reside in larger urbanized areas (Heidelberg, Mainz, Essen, Berlin, Munich, etc). You go and examine rent prices for a three or four bedroom apartment, and you start freaking out. Maybe if you live 40 kilometers outside of Mainz....you might be able to find some affordable situation, but then you need a dependable car to take you into work.
Then you examine taxes, healthcare costs, pension contributions. Roughly forty to fifty percent of what you make will go toward those items. Maybe if you had a really great job, with technology advantages....there might be a hefty salary and a chance to get ahead, but out of a thousand Turks...most will end up in craftsman trades where it's an average income (probably 98-percent).
Having a vehicle to haul around a couple and five kids? If you are in the bottom forty-percent of salary....there's a problem in affording a big van. You certainly wouldn't be able to afford two vehicles.
Did Erdogan ask the Turkish career women their humble opinion? A lot of them have established themselves into a job opportunity, very happy with pay, and not driven to have more than one or two kids max.
Maybe in Turkey, you could afford to have five kids or more, but for most of Europe, it just makes no real sense. You'd be on the edge of poverty unless you had some fantastic job with serious pay advantages. With average education or less....you won't find such a job.
It'll be curious what Erdogan gets hyped up on next. Maybe he'll come up with some slogan or pitch to bring Germans back to the vacation resorts in Turkey?
Friday, March 17, 2017
The Reality of Tunisia
About every two weeks, you hear about some episode in Germany involving some Tunisian immigrants, drug trafficking, or some German state government trying remove some Tunisians (sending them back home). It's a page two story for the most part. So, eventually....you ask yourself....what the heck is going wrong in Tunisia?
Well....here are some facts.
- Thirty-percent of Tunisia university graduates are having trouble finding any job. Tunisia virtually guarantees college to anyone, and everyone has this idea that a degree will guarantee a job (remember hearing that line in the US?).
- In 2012, Tunisia admitted that ten-percent of it's population was outside of the country, because there simply wasn't enough jobs for people. Their people....were among their chief exports, sadly.
- Women make up almost sixty-percent of the university-system graduates....but it's a male-dominated society....so most of these women (particularly those under the age of thirty) are finding dismal conditions for any job at all.
- It's hard to find any country in the Middle East or in Northern Africa.....which puts as much effort and resources into university operations. Yet the result? There's not enough jobs for these highly gifted or qualified individuals....thus....no real future unless you leave the country.
- At some point in 2011....they were actually near 18-percent unemployment. Over the past five years....they've edged this down to between 14 and 15 percent. If you are a young guy though....with no real education or job training....there's no market for people like you. So you end up on some street corner.....selling water melons.
- Oddly, one of the few positive areas of job potential is the IT area....writing code. Various companies utilize the young talent of Tunisia in this area.
- Another odd feature of the Tunisia job market is that they have potential for Call Centers.....which draw business from across the Middle East and North Africa.
- A decade ago....before all the hyped up terrorism....tourism was pumping around 7-percent of the national GDP, with almost 400,000 folks employed in some sector of tourism. All of that however....kinda fell as terrorism occurred and Europeans decided it just wasn't that safe anymore. This was the one country with a great climate, cheap labor, friendly people, and fantastic potential for tourism growth back a decade ago. If the terrorism hadn't occurred, you'd probably over 600,000 folks today, employed within the industry and plenty of future potential.
This is the sad reality of Tunisia. They had all this education plus-up, plenty of open territory for hotels and resorts, and within a short distance of three hours flying from any European capital. In a safe area, with no terrorism....you'd attract start-up potential, tons of tourists in search of a sunny week or two, and a place where you could hire a hundred qualified/capable/educated employees in a couple of days.
They could have been a winner....marketing themselves in dozens of ways and charming the Europeans into spending money easily.
Well....here are some facts.
- Thirty-percent of Tunisia university graduates are having trouble finding any job. Tunisia virtually guarantees college to anyone, and everyone has this idea that a degree will guarantee a job (remember hearing that line in the US?).
- In 2012, Tunisia admitted that ten-percent of it's population was outside of the country, because there simply wasn't enough jobs for people. Their people....were among their chief exports, sadly.
- Women make up almost sixty-percent of the university-system graduates....but it's a male-dominated society....so most of these women (particularly those under the age of thirty) are finding dismal conditions for any job at all.
- It's hard to find any country in the Middle East or in Northern Africa.....which puts as much effort and resources into university operations. Yet the result? There's not enough jobs for these highly gifted or qualified individuals....thus....no real future unless you leave the country.
- At some point in 2011....they were actually near 18-percent unemployment. Over the past five years....they've edged this down to between 14 and 15 percent. If you are a young guy though....with no real education or job training....there's no market for people like you. So you end up on some street corner.....selling water melons.
- Oddly, one of the few positive areas of job potential is the IT area....writing code. Various companies utilize the young talent of Tunisia in this area.
- Another odd feature of the Tunisia job market is that they have potential for Call Centers.....which draw business from across the Middle East and North Africa.
- A decade ago....before all the hyped up terrorism....tourism was pumping around 7-percent of the national GDP, with almost 400,000 folks employed in some sector of tourism. All of that however....kinda fell as terrorism occurred and Europeans decided it just wasn't that safe anymore. This was the one country with a great climate, cheap labor, friendly people, and fantastic potential for tourism growth back a decade ago. If the terrorism hadn't occurred, you'd probably over 600,000 folks today, employed within the industry and plenty of future potential.
This is the sad reality of Tunisia. They had all this education plus-up, plenty of open territory for hotels and resorts, and within a short distance of three hours flying from any European capital. In a safe area, with no terrorism....you'd attract start-up potential, tons of tourists in search of a sunny week or two, and a place where you could hire a hundred qualified/capable/educated employees in a couple of days.
They could have been a winner....marketing themselves in dozens of ways and charming the Europeans into spending money easily.
Thursday, March 16, 2017
The NEIN, DANKE Story
From today's German BILD, an odd layout. Two entire pages....pictures of the individuals, and a major headline.....page 8 and 9.
Erdogan, NEIN, DANKE. (No, Thanks).
Fifty Turks....men and women....young and old. All voicing a simple three-line statement against the upcoming ballot measure where Erdogan will concrete down his powers of authority. These are all German-Turks, who've adapted to Germany....gotten employment....enjoy the current lifestyle, freedoms, economic landscape, educational opportunities, and 'quite' political atmosphere.
It's a dynamic piece that BILD centered upon.... working-class Turks who don't believe the hype that Erdogan has made with this political situation.
No one in Germany is quiet sure about the division of pro-Erdogan or anti-Erdogan support. It might be fifty-fifty. It might be fewer than 20-percent in support of Erdogan. It's not the kind of poll that German news media folks tend to do, and I think that most German politicians would prefer to avoid these results. If it were 90-percent pro-Erdogan....it'd worry some folks.
Here's the curious thing. Most Turks will tell you that they glance at various Turkish language newspapers each week, and maybe catch satellite coverage from Turkey on some occasions. Most have adapted to Germany....speak the language, and if there was one single newspaper which they read on occasion.....it would be BILD. I'm not saying BILD is the greatest newspaper in the world (it has it's issues)....but people tend to see them as being the voice of the common man in Germany.
Maybe it makes little difference on the Turkish public, but it will suggest that Turks aren't buying into the Erdogan political gimmicks.
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