6 Sep is the date of the state election.
Presently....AfD is rating around 42-percent of the vote....with 12-percent of the vote likely going to smaller parties without a chance to get seats in the state assembly.
So I crunched the math...asking AI for help.
There will be five likely parties getting 5-percent or more (AfD, SPD, Linke, BSW and CDU).
With the current numbers...83 seats in the mix....AfD will not be able to get 50-percent or more....meaning that the CDU (in 2nd place) will be told to forge a coalition with the SPD, Linke and BSW....all lefties. This would be a 50-plus situation.
However, I'll point this out....if you were a CDU-voter and were told....the 5-year coalition would be mostly a left-situation...why would you vote for the CDU?
Somewhere in the 21-percent polling for the CDU....I suspect half of the voters really can't dream of partnering into a situation like this. So part of me suggests that half of the CDU-voters might slide over and vote for the AfD...giving them a 50-plus percent win, with the 50-plus seats.
It would be a pretty radical win, and hard to explain to the general public. Nationally, it'd trigger a lot of questions
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