Sunday, March 1, 2020

New Chaos in Europe?

It's a page two-type story in Germany, but it'll ramp up in the next seven days.

What ZDF (Channel Two, public TV) says....is that roughly 13,000 Syrian refugees who were based in Turkey (being paid a EU sum of money per quarter to help/house them)....are being 'let go' by the Turks, and going toward the Greek border.

Number presently 13,000 at the border.  Greeks expect them to rush the border and make their way across. 

The Turks are saying (via the UK press) that they will 'release' all 3-million Syrian refugees. 

Adding to this mess....there's been daily chaos going on within several of the Greek islands facing Turkey....with refugees attempting to exit the camps.  Greek locals are going ballistic over this threat.  Political chaos is going on, and no one can say for sure how this can end. 

What you might see? 

I would suggest two scenarios:

1.  The Greeks might ask for EU help to prevent the refugees from crossing. At best, the EU might be able to form some marginal group to prevent the crossing.

2.  The Greeks might clear a path, and send the asylum group up to the Macedonian border.....hoping they cross there, and head onto Kosovo and Montenegro.  Then onto Bosnia, Croatia, Slovenia, Austria, and finally....Germany.  We are approaching March, and fair weather.  A hike....to reach the German border?  Roughly 1,440 km to the border....figure with decent weather and 30 km per day....around two months. 

Creating a massive mess for Chancellor Merkel and the coalition government?  All part of Turkey's plan, I think.  Whatever Erdogan is asking for.....the EU will end up having to pay the 'price'. 

No comments: