What I Generally Think of the 130 Kilometer Per Hour Limit Idea on Autobahns?

 Five points:

1.  Most people (probably up toward 70 percent) already drive at 130 kph or less on the autobahn.   

2.  Most urbanized areas are already set to 100 kph (probably been that way for over 40 years).

3.  At any given time, probably 1-percent of all autobahns in Germany are under renovation and set to 60-to-80 kph.  

4.  If you went at this safety-wise, it might have statistical data to say night-time speeds ought to be limited to 130 kph.

5.  Putting speed limits on trucks probably being more effective for safety?  Some PhD group ought to review the data and make the recommendation that the better limit idea would be to set all trucks/buses to 80 kph.  

What Tempo-30 Really Means?

 I spent most of the afternoon in Mainz, which is one of those cities which flipped over about a year ago to 30 kilometers per hour (18.5 mph) in the inner-city.  On the outer ring of the city....it still allows 50 kph (31 mph).  This was done for particle issues, and safety (at least they say that).

So the general effect of tempo-30?

1.  Traffic moves at what you'd consider bicycle-speed....meaning ever bike-riders, E-scooter riders, and mini-scooters are moving with your same speed.

2.  This also means that you may not see the kid on your right.....which is coming up behind you and attempting to pass you on the right.  Yes, it's highly dangerous.

3.  You now realize that pedestrians are not that fearful in crossing the street, and don't fear getting to the halfway point....waiting for the oncoming car to pass.  Yes, that's fairly dangerous as well.

4.  More bike-riders than previously?  I'd argue that probably has occurred.

Why the movement to Tempo-30 or no car zones in German cities?  You can go back several years ago to what they did in London....making most of the inner-city non-car-friendly.  That got people in Germany to thinking about no car zones, and how you'd accomplish this.

The Prosperity of Germans

 If you sat and asked non-Germans to assess German culture and identify ten descriptive words....I think these ten would be the most recognized: efficient, punctual, traditional, consumed, disciplined, academic, competitive, knowledgeable, cultured, and prosperous.  

On this last term....prosperous....you see this on a daily basis.  

The German who has built a small business up....wants a house to show his status in life.  He or she wants a car to fit their 'landscape'.  This is the German who vacations off in Thailand, or takes a 3-week cruise around the Pacific, or lounges on some Brisbane beachfront. This is the person who buys the 20k Euro kitchen.  This is the person who pays 200 Euro for two tickets of a musical show in Koln, after dining in a 200 Euro situation with his or her spouse.  

German society has thrived under the umbrella of prosperity.  They took risks...put the extra hours in....fought with various banks for the best loan rates....looked long and hard for success....grumbled publicly about taxation....continually looked for innovation and the cutting edge....and only admitted defeat when all options were exhausted.

If you go travel around the world, there's always this aura of prosperity existing in most countries you visit, but the place where it flourishes...is Germany.

You go into a neighborhood and kinda notice that it's neat and tidy.  You notice that houses have a color scheme and not dull gray (like you'd see in France).  You notice that home landscaping is a priority with most German property owners.  

So here's the thing.  For decades, this model of society has worked.  You could make the statement that 'happy Germans' kept society on track (don't ask where this track leads onto).  This new threat after the election....of higher prices, longer recession, higher taxes, and lesser prosperity coming?  It's not exact a positive thing.

If you were asking me about the one part of German society not to mess with or corrupt....it'd be the prosperity angle.  If you can't be prosperous....then that landscape is awful bleak.  

A Limburg Story

 About a half-hour drive north of my residence in Germany is the town of Limburg (Hessen city of 36k people....general size of 45 square kilometers). 

My description of the town?  It's a historical place and the old town area is worth a field trip of four hours to walk around.  There's no bad part of town.  Coffee shops, cafes, restaurants, and pubs?  In abundance.  

It's a town where probably 99-percent of people are happy.

So they have this problem and in the past month or two....it's gotten a lot of hype.  HR picked up the story is the basis of the hype.

The city has a number of weather stations/air collection sites.  Over the past couple of years, with EU rules on clean air....the city has a problem.

The nitrate dioxide levels....year after year.....have exceeded the EU standards.  

Some folks used the data and the standard, and are pushing now to have the whole mid-town area declared as a banned-area for cars.

The city reaction?  Well....reality has sunk in and they are pretty disturbed over where this is going.  

A pretty fair area (near the B8 leading through midtown) will be declared off-limits to older diesel cars....as the regulation goes into place.

What'll happen as the regulation occurs?  The mayor figures that these people will detour around the affected area, and present new and higher numbers for other parts of town....plus increasing the rate of traffic in areas which didn't have that much traffic before.  

Alternate measures?  What the city talks about is a project or two which would take at least ten years, and the environmental folks aren't willing to wait.

The funny thing as you look at the mess....this is a story which designed public access...public parking....easy routes through the city, and all that work (for forty-odd years) has reached a point where the value is near zero.

The odds that businesses, restaurants, bars, etc.....will lose business over the next decade because of the dirty air standard?  I would go and suggest that people will be shocked in a decade as places pack up and move a mile or two outside of the city limits.  

Nutcase Attack?

 I bring this story because it's generally every week now in the German news....that you have guy (usually not a woman) who goes nuts and attacks folks.  Drug use?  Paranoid schizophrenia?  Anyone's guess.

Down toward Bensheim (south of Frankfurt), there's this area which is connected up with bicycle 'roads'.

Yesterday....according to the Police....some guy comes up near a path/bridge area.  Two bicyclists were 'selected' by this nutcase guy, and attacked (with a knife).  One was seriously injured.....the other less so.

Guy runs off into the woods, but the cops track him down later and arrest him.  32 years old....local German guy. 

On some drug, or just plain crazy?  Police don't say.

That's the thing about it....you just can't put yourself in a general safe feeling....even if you were out in the middle of nowhere on a bike.  Some drugged-up nutcase might be standing there with some aggravation on his mind.

Update: Well....the police say the guy has a record (assault, robberies, etc).  They also say when they approached him.....he seemed awful confused (sounding like he was drugged-up.  Drug-testing the guy?  Doesn't look that way.  

Is US Diversity and German Diversity the Same Thing?

 Diversity typically means the general practice of 'including' people with a wide range of different social/ethnic landscapes, and differing orientations of sex (genders to the extreme).

So, here's the image you need to observe.  When the Romans arrived...they did their best to 'package' up German tribes and force them into one consolidated group.  When the Catholic Church arrived....they did their best to 'package' up German villages, towns and cities into one consolidated group.  When the Prussia folks arrived....they did their best to 'package' up German states into one nation.  

There is this long line of effort to make German society function as one single group.  As much as you can whip up enthusiasm for diversity....it's just not the type of diversity that you would see in the US.  Sure....everyone in Germany is kinda against the Bavarians.  Yes, the welfare people hate the people who have 'it'.  It's true that the Greta-kids are on a mission to save mankind and hate everyone who disagrees with them.  

But this general culture has various elements of 'glue' that bind society.  

The weird kinky sexual stuff?  Well....there were guys dressed like women in the 1920s and in Berlin and Hamburg....it was already accepted.  The fetish business?  It's been around Germany for a thousand years already.  

Trying to be a loser in society?  In German society, you can only go so far being a loser, then you live under a bridge or you find some park where you permanently camp out.  Germans aren't going to give that much sympathy to you or your path in life.

No talk radio?  Nope.....never took place in Germany.

Use of TV fake news for propaganda purposes in Germany?  ARD/ZDF (public TV) probably carries some elements, but lets be fair.....just an awful lot of Germans no longer watch public TV in Germany.  If you went to the 15-to-30 year old group, I doubt if you can find more than 10-percent of society who regularly watch the public forums off the public networks.  

German skepticism?  I'd say after 1945, just a lot of Germans sat in disbelief of how the Nazi machine picked up things and arranged society.  So this whole game of diversity that you see in the US.....has some Germans fairly skeptical.  

Talking gender stuff with a skeptical German?  Well....right off the bat, they want your general plan on how you will earn a living, pay taxes, and live a stable lifestyle.  Yes, the nitty gritty details of living in a world that does not wait on you to be 'fixed'.  The sex stuff?  Well....let's be honest on this....they've seen just about everything you can imagine, so the gender stuff isn't exactly bold or refreshingly new.  (Don't even bring the latest cannibal news story from Berlin-Pankow....teacher 'eats' car mechanic)

So I'll end this essay with this.  Once you get to a point where 50-percent of your pay-check goes to some government tax....diversity doesn't really amount to much.

Unrealistic Things Chatter

 "If you promise unrealistic things....the voters will not take you seriously."

-- Linke Party former party boss Sahra Wagenknecht 

This was brought up today by N-24/Welt news.

I would suggest if you sat down with working class Germans (not journalists)....more than ninety percent would readily agree with the logic of the statement.  But they'd also tell you that all of the political parties have broken this unrealistic promise situation (even Merkel).

At some point about twenty years ago....a comedian in Iceland finally ran a campaign to make silly promises, and ended up (accidentally) as mayor of the capital city.  I think things are progressing to the point in Germany where comedians will be able to form parties, and probably take up a quarter of city council seats without any trouble.  

Another Raid and Search Warrant?

 Well....this gets interesting.

ARD (public TV, Channel One) went and talked about this search warrant that occurred today.

General facts?  Koln Prosecutor signed off for a search at WDR (public TV network for NW) and SZ (Süddeutscher Zeitung newspaper).  This included private apartments/homes in the Hamburg area.  All of this involves the 'cum-ex' tax avoidance gimmick.  

Political groups involved?  Well....it looks like some SPD folks from Hamburg knew of various things going on. This leads to the idea that a Hamburg bank (Warburg) handled around 40-to-50 million Euro.

Will this lead back to the former mayor of Hamburg (Scholz)?  No one is saying that.  

At the pace of things, I'd expect this to be a major event by summer of 2022, with forty-odd people who either engineered the situation or just sat there and watched it occur without reacting.  

How the 'Mandate Law' Works

 Normally, in an election....if you get as a party less than 5-percent of the vote....you don't get seats.  However, there is this little understood law existing (since the 1990s) which is referred to as the 'Mandate Law'.

Basically, if you got 4.9-percent (like the Linke Party did)....the potential for the Mandate Law occurs.  

If a party get more than 5-percent in three states (minimum) then you bounce into the Mandate Law, and it requires that the Bundestag give you seats.

Does it help the Linke Party?  Well....they stay in national politics but with a lot less seats and less say.  More than half of the current crew will be 'retired-out' and I would imagine that they will get fewer invites to public TV shows.  

Why the Linke Party can't really drill down into more votes?  I would suggest that the Green Party has opened up various topics, and stolen a fair amount of 'power' that the Linke crew used to have. 

Recovering?  You'd have to go and remodel/reestablishment the brand name.  

Fake Story

 I read around 300-odd business-related stories each week.  This week, I picked up this one story....relating to the German election and worried 'rich' Germans who were moving money out of the country.

After reading through the 30-line story, I put the piece down and stamped it 'fake'.

Whoever wrote this....wanted to convey that 'rich' Germans are extremely worried over increasing taxation that is likely to come as 2022 starts up.  No one argues over that point.

But then they wanted to convey that the money was moving presently into Switzerland (a safe harbor for cash up until the 1990s).  From that point on in the story....it was pretty much fake news.

I won't argue at some point in time....Switzerland (Luxembourg & Liechtenstein included) were getting tons of business from Germans trying to hide money.  At some point, even the upper-middle-class (plumbers, and handy-men) were driving over to Luxembourg every six months with a bag of 40k DMs (money they earned under the table and didn't want to report to the German tax office). 

Then, the German tax office got aggressive.....even buying data from bank clerks.....to ID the people with secret bank accounts.  Over the past twenty years....things changed and the idea of a secret Swiss or Liechtenstein account became a joke.

These days....if you have a million Euro and don't want to be taxed....you end going to places like Cyprus, Greece or Czech.....creating a fake business front and then creating a second headquarters company out of some Pacific country.....making it near impossible for the German tax authorities to get into your business.  You partner up with some group....buy a freighter, and your profits roll into a secretive account....or you buy a hotel in some manner where the profits are never taxed at the German rate.

The Americans who read this fake story?  They think rich Germans just now woke up to increasing taxes, while the truth is that they've been hyped-up and critical on taxes for forty-odd years.  

What will change as we get into 2022?  I suspect a dozen-odd tax gimmicks will be implemented....some affecting the ultra rich, some for the moderate rich, and some affecting everyone in general.  Everyone will whine about the cost of living going up and being highly critical over food bumping up almost monthly.  The extension of the current recession going throughout all of 2022?  More than likely at this point.  

And yes, at some point.....the regular German will review the hiding of income as a necessity.  

That Car Accident Story

 This is a pretty weird (and tragic) story, so I'll try to tell in a simplified version.  HR (our local public TV network in Hessen is the general source).

Way back in the early part of 2021....on the streets of Frankfurt, we had this accident occur.

What the police say is that there was some racing (within the city limits).....at high speeds regarded as illegal.

At a red light.....the racer continued through.....hitting two folks in the crosswalk....killing them.

The racer?  39 years old.

At some point after the crosswalk.....the racer's car flipped in some way.  The guy got out, and kinda escaped (at least temporarily).  Local folks gave some chase and held the guy until the police arrived.

For some reason, the prosecutor of Frankfurt decided that a mental exam was called for (don't ask).

On regular charges (illegal racing and homicide), there probably was enough to get five years minimum (homicide usually gets you between five and fifteen years).  If you go back to past Berlin episodes where people have died on the street from illegal racing.....life-long prison was prescribed.

During the mental evaluation....the guy demonstrated schizophrenia.  Hearing of voices....to race faster?  Yes....the evaluation demonstrated that problem as well.

The prosecutor has recommended life-long mental clinic holding instead of a court case.  The judge?  He's likely to review the recommendation and agree.

So, you have to ask this question....shouldn't every single driver now be directed for a mental eval, and checked for schizophrenia?  On any given day in Frankfurt.....forty-odd people might be driving around and in some stage of schizophrenia.  If you ask me....this opened up this massive door and people ought to be asking a lot of questions.  

Humorous Standing Over Nord Stream II Gas Pipe

 Noticed via N-TV this afternoon.....Green Party Chancellor Candidate here in Germany (Baerbock)....a standing that is fairly harsh on the Nord Stream II pipe.

For those who haven't watched this whole pipe discussion.....a brief talk.  For years, Germany has bought around 35-percent of its gas via the Russians.  It comes via one pipe from southern Russia, through the Ukraine and Romania (eastern Europe).  A new pipe route was designed....coming via the north (the Baltic region) toward northern Germany.  Trump?  He got into the middle of this, and delayed.  With Trump gone, it started back up.  

Well....Baerbock said today that she'd stop the gas flow if eastern Europe is treated unfairly. 

Now, so far....no one has asked her where the 35-percent of natural gas will come from.....if her actions created a 'mess'.

The Russians?  Well....they intend to operate still the old pipe, but they want full pricing from the eastern European folks.  

Baerbock's knowledge level on natural gas use in Germany?  It might be time to ask her some questions.   

What's the Cost of Running the Bundestag?

 Well....N-TV had a piece on today which discussed this matter.  Presently, the cost factor is up around 1-billion Euro (1.25 billion dollars).....if the current size is maintained (in terms of members).

Presently, there is chatter that around 150-plus members may end up in the mix, and the cost factor is suggested to be 600 to 900 million Euro extra, if they go to 900 members.

This being ridiculous on the numbers?  It's not a top twenty-issue yet, but it comes up in conversation a good bit now.  How many are the directed or written number?  598.

Because of varying rules added....the number is not concrete.  Some suggest the number might come very close to 1,000 by the end of October.  So this amount might end up as 2-billion Euro?  Well....yeah.  Democracy costs a lot.....if you didn't realize it.  Plus those folks have a decent pension deal, which is rarely if ever mentioned.  

Drunk Story

 We had a rather unusual event last night in the village next to mine (over the hill).

Some German guy came in with his large aggressive dog (with a muzzle over his mouth) to a pizza shop.  The guy got drunk, and aggressive.

At some point, the shop asked him to leave.  He removed the muzzle from the dog and directed the dog to attack.

Shop calls the police.

Minutes later....the German police arrive.  They take down the drunk German, but he's still yelling at the dog to attack (on the police).  German cops end up shooting the dog (no one says if this was inside or outside).  

Drunk dragged away.  Looking over the mess.....there's probably at least three charges, and potentially a year or more in jail for the events.  Just on abusive handling of the dog.....that's probably a year by itself.  

Probably the wildest event that village has seen in twenty years.  

Digital Driver's License Coming to Germany?

 Focus brought up this advancement....some technology being developed by the government to put your driver's license onto your smart-phone (an App so to speak).

The problem I see.....at least for some of us, you'd be driving along and the Police pull you over.....with 'juice' left on your batteries.  I'm kinda famous for running batteries down to 1-percent or lower.  

The odds of your national ID card getting digitalized?  I'd give it better than 99-percent (eventually).  

Homeless Chatter

 There was an interesting news piece off RBB (Berlin public TV) this AM....relating to homelessness.

So the topic.....for those who didn't know....the number of homeless people in Germany is assed to be around 860,000 (minimum).  Roughly, one-percent of German society.

I should note, this is 2016 numbers and some people suggest the current number is one-million-plus.

So there is this general discussion topic....writing a paragraph into the Basic Law (the Constitution) to say housing must be provided.  Going anywhere?  No.  I don't think the general political climate can explain the cost factor or how the government would find a housing solution.  

All of this leading to an urbanization problem?  I've traveled a good bit around Germany in the past decade, and would readily suggest that the vast number of homeless in the country.....are in cities of more than 250,000.  If you go into towns of 10,000 or less....you don't see the problem.  

Odds of the issue escalating?  Oh, I could see two million being homeless by 2030.  

Shooting Still in the News

 If you watched public TV last night (either ARD or ZDF) in Germany.....you kinda noticed the top topic as being this gas station killing in Idar-Oberstein (Pfalz) from Saturday evening.  The background to this event?  

49-year old German guy walks into a gas station....no Covid mask on....the 20-year old gas station clerk asks him to mask-up.....guy refuses.  Things go quickly into a spiral, and the older customer pulls out a pistol....killing the clerk.  

The public TV version of the event?  Far right-wing extremist at work, and just another example of how the anti-vax crowd are being developed as 'threats'.

Drug-testing the murder suspect, or conducting a mental eval?  Well....no one has said that yet, but I'd generally go and expect the mental eval to be a minimum.

It is an odd trend with public TV over the past couple of years....where anything of a leftwing tendency involving violence....gets minimal mention or hype, but rightwing action needs public attention.  Most of the radical Muslim events now?  They all quickly lead to a mental eval suggestion and some chatter over paranoid schizophrenia.  I would even go and suggest it's pretty easy to write the news script for a radical terror attack and 'stamp' the suspect having schizophrenia.  

This Idar-Oberstein guy potentially having some level of schizophrenia?  It wouldn't shock me if a doctor checked the guy out and he was diagnosed.  He may have been on a schizophrenia 'trip' for the past two decades.  Using alcohol to mask the problems?  That's a general trend with some of these folks.  

The gun connection?  Still openly discussed.....it doesn't appear that he had a license to own a gun....so where did it come from?  If he couldn't legally own a gun....why?  

As for anti-vaxers being mostly rightwing?  Where's the statistical data to back this up?  You could have leftwingers as anti-vax folks as well.  

Railway Story

 An odd update came up via N-TV (commercial news in Germany) this AM.

So what they say....a Bahn railway employee was walking through a ICE train while the train was in Leipzig yesterday, and noticed this plug between two seats.

Examination?  Well....it was connected into the wall socket (230 volts).

Someone had arranged this in a fashion to electrify someone sitting down in the seats.

Cops were called and they will investigate this as far as they can.  I would seriously doubt they can connect it to anyone, unless there's fingerprints involved.  

Just a mischievous person?  Well....with 230 volts, it's not much of a joke.

If you sit on a modern ICE train....most all seats have access to a plug area, to charge up your smart-phone or laptop.  

Covid-Chatter Over Sick Leave

 If you follow government Covid-chatter of the past two weeks....the new policy has come up (to be enforced).....if you are a non-vax person and get Covid....your unemployment insurance will NOT kick on.  

Loss of wages for a 14-day period?  Yeah.  The government figures this will finally fix things.

So companies have looked over the tactic.  If you follow Focus....they chatted about this analysis to some degree.  Companies suggest that people will just withhold their quarantine status.  Asking for regular leave time?  Why wouldn't they?  If you figure most Germans get around 35 days of leave per year and rarely does quarantine go past a fourteen day period....you'd be throwing away 10 of your regular leave days.

The crowd mostly affected?  The 450-Euro folks (mini-job types), and the full-time but marginal pay folks.  There's no statistical evidence to say that they fit into this whole discussion.  

To be legally challenged?  Oh, that's guaranteed.  The fact that you take this out as a mandated thing (the insurance money to cover things), then if you say it won't apply....why would you bother paying into the 'fund'?  Added to this discussion....if the vaccinated guy gets Covid....yet gets paid during the sick leave period....isn't there something wrong with  that logic as well?

The other part to this discussion....if you felt kinda bad but still capable of working....why bother going to a doctor to be told you have Covid?  I could see marginally Covid-sick folks just bearing with the virus for the first day or two....taking four days off (regular leave) and going back to work....possibly passing it to forty-odd customers/co-workers.  Some phrase like 'work-through-Covid' will be invented to describe these folks who just 'grin-and-bear' it.  In this stupid logic, most companies will turn and face the Health Ministry.....angry over the rules and blaming them for making a bigger mess out of this.

So settle back and watch this unfold for the next month or two, and how the courts drag themselves into the middle of the mess.

Mask Killing?

 This story was reported on Sunday and I've been waiting for more of an explanation. 

What the cops say is that over in Idar-Oberstein (not far from Trier)....on Saturday evening....this guy stopped to fill up his tank at a station.

Entering the station....the clerk (20 years old) stressed to the older guy (49 years old) to put on a mask.  The customer declined the request and this got to a hectic situation....eventually with the customer shooting the clerk (dead).

What the guy said as the cops arrested him....he wanted to make an example out of the clerk.

Current charge?  Well....murder.

Nutcase?  Well....if you go through the various news outlets.....you get the impression that the guy wasn't the easiest of characters to deal with.  

The gun?  Well....no one is suggesting he had a license, so this acquisition of the gun remains a priority.  

Oddly enough, this is the first murder in Germany, related to Covid.  

Climate Change Story

 Several news sites are carrying this story from yesterday afternoon (Tuesday), I'll cite Focus for part of this story.

For those who didn't know.....a lot of teenage kids are hyped up on this election (they can't vote).....on the climate emergency.  Yeah, it's the Greta kids, or the Fridays for the Future crowd.

The SPD Party candidate....Olaf Scholz...was at a political rally over in Soltau (town about 30 minutes driving south of Hamburg).  It's his territory and it ought to be a fair number of folks attending....in support.

So this kid....angry, aggravated and consumed....showed up.....teenage gal that I would suggest was around sixteen years old.  

While he was attempting to make his speech....she launched into some screaming tirade.  

What you stumble across in her screaming?  She's mostly talking about this hunger strike going on by climate kids.

Scholz made a talk in his speech over this hunger strike....telling the kids that they needed to end the hunger strike, and AFTER the election....then he'd sit down with the kids to hear their discussion.

How this all works, in the mind of the kids?  What they are asking for is a "citizens' council" that would be a part of the government....to decide on climate change initiatives. 

How this council would work?  Unknown.  Would pro-union folks (concerned over jobs) be allowed on the council?  Unknown.  Would the Bundestag have the power to approve or disapprove council ideas?  Unknown.  Who would appoint people to the council?  Unknown.

I'd offer the humble view that there are presently around a 100-thousand teens in Germany who are hyped-up on this and they will eventually be young men and women in their twenties.....still hyped up.  Somewhere down the line, probably in four years when the next election cycle starts up.....it'll be a hearty and aggravated group of people....possibly resembling the 1960s Red Army Faction crew.  

Hostage Story

 There was a hijacking of a German bus on Autobahn 9, between Hilpoltstein and Greding (deep into the heart of Bavaria....between Munich and Nuremberg).  

Guy involved?  Serb, around 30 years old.

Most of this story comes from a early AM edition of Focus.

What the cops say is that the guy got aggravated in some way....on his way to Serbia, then threatened everyone on the bus with what suggested to them was a gun (evidence so far, there never was a gun).

So it became a hostage situation, which went on for several hours....SEK guys (federal SWAT type police) were brought onto the scene, and eventually all the hostages (passengers) were allowed off, with just the Serb and two drivers left there.

The event ended shortly after that.....no one dead or wounded, just scared.  SEK guys retook the bus.

My take?  Either the guy is paranoid schizophrenic, or he was on some type of drug excursion.  No one says where the guy originally started the trip.  And no, he's not some Muslim radical type.  As for potential charges?  Man, I could see forty-odd charges, but I'll predict a mental evaluation right off the bat.  

Update: Mental eval for the Serb guy.  With two folks injured in this episode.....would be some charges coming out of this unless he's declared 'unfit'.

Foundation Versus Foundation Story

 There is a curious political conflict underway, and N-TV gave an update today, which I will try to simplify in nature.

Between 1982 and 1998, Helmet Kohl was Chancellor of Germany (CDU Party).  At the final year, a scandal came up.  What I'll say over the scandal (probably deserves sixty lines)....is that a company needed a 'favor' done (non-German company).  Kohl's party arranged for the 'favor' (related to oil/fuel).  Kohl took the money and sent it to a non-German bank (yes, hiding it) and then used the money on CDU candidates that he favored but were hindered by lack of funds.  The non-German account was figured out, and things were dragged enough that he wasn't fired.

As far as I know...not a pfennig of the money ever was spent on Kohl himself.  He spent it on the party....as crazy as it sounds. 

At the conclusion of this mess....it's safe to say that Kohl was 'toxic' and probably the next ten guys after him at least knew of the account/purpose....were dragged down.

A new CDU leadership came into place, and they more or less 'disrespected' Kohl and his legacy (at least in his mind).

After he left office (within 3 years), his wife committed suicide (over health issues, not the scandal).

He remarried in 2008 (younger gal, 44 years old).  In the nine years that passed.....Kohl gave her various instructions upon his passing. 

To put this in a simple way.....he didn't want the CDU Party or any of their 'helpers' to be handling his papers.  Nothing was to be handed to the historical crowd, period.

In the last year, the Bundestag passed legislation creating a Helmet Kohl Foundation, and their hope was that the Kohl papers (literally everything he wrote from day of his political career)....would go into this achieve.

Well....as N-TV told the story today.....this business of the Foundation is going to court, because a Kohl Foundation already exists and is run by the widow.  She has all the letters signed by Kohl to appoint her in charge of the papers, and the legacy business. 

The court system?  I suspect that they are going back over the past hundred years....looking for a similar case, and I doubt there is one.

Kohl's blunt point?  He didn't want anyone crapping over his legacy.  So only papers that fit the Kohl legacy 'model' will be allowed in some public forum.  Based on journalistic chatter.....the widow should be described as a tough gal, and not likely to be pushed around.  If the court were to say the papers must all be turned over to the Bundestag Kohl Foundation?  It wouldn't shock me if she burnt the whole collection to preserve the legacy he intended.  

All of this from the way he was treated after the scandal?  Yeah.  

Political Chatter

The Civey polling organization went out and polled around 1,000 Germans.....on the question of coalitions (taking into mind the election on Sunday).

I regard Civey as one of the top three poll groups and fairly reliable.

Around a quarter of the 'nation' says that SPD-Greens-Linke is the group they support in the coalition (considering that SPD wins).

Around 18-percent said SPD-FDP-Greens.

ONLY 3-percent to continue with the SPD-CDU-CSU.  

In second place was the coalition idea of CDU-CSU-Greens-FDP (with people hoping that the CDU wins).

Does the one-quarter solution appeal to people?  Well....you would say that seventy-five percent of folks don't see it appealing.  

In the past month, this coalition question has come up a good bit, and I'd suggest it's one of the top five issues brewing in the election at this point.  I would suggest a majority of Germans aren't that happy over a leftist coalition (probably up over 75-percent of the public).

'Shocking' Covid News

 Here in Hessen, a university group (out of the University of Kassel, north Hessen) came up with this idea and have tested a theory.  HR reported on this in the AM today.

So the idea was....can you kill Covid with an electrical charge?  Answer?  Yes.

What they did was push the virus through a path of electrical plates (entry to exit), and the virus does not survive.

They proved that even with a battery powering the device.....Covid dies.

Building an air filter device, without the filter, but completely with the charged-up plates?  Probably going to be a future device you can buy at the local grocery/department store.

A mask device?  This is mentioned but I would question the weight distribution to make the mask practical.  

Update on That Wurzburg Attack

 Back in June (around the 25th), there was this terror attack in Wurzburg.  I essayed at least two occasions on the attack.

Basic facts....immigrant guy (having arrived in 2015) stabbed to death three folks, and wounded eight....at a Woolworth's department store  near the Bahnhof.  Locals chased him....stalling him, until the cops arrived.  The stall-crew?  A Somali immigrant, a German soldier and a local waiter.  

The accused guy?  A 24-year old Somali guy....who had drifted around since 2015, and you can generally say as integration goes....this was a total failure.

Well...this morning, the authorities in Wurzburg have announced that the guy in question is NOT 24 years old.  They now believe he's 32 years old....probably lying since day one of his arrival.  Fake juvenile story?  More or less.  It doesn't change the outcome of the court case, in case you were wondering.  

How often is the juvenile age thing attempted?  It's generally believed by the young males  entering Germany that it's a clear path for juveniles to be readily accepted, and not returned to their country.

Changes Coming?

 Some 'chatter' came up today.....'worry' is what I'd call it....on the topic of a SPD-Green-Linke Party coalition.

So what Focus put up as a news piece.....some people now believe that there are radical negative changes coming if the Linke Party is part of the new government.

The Protection of the Constitution agency?  They are mentioned in this piece and it's believed that they will be downsized or given lesser responsibilities.  Naturally, a fair number of Germans might agree with this change.

Lesser powers for the police?  That's mentioned as well.

A lot of this circles back to whichever party gets the Ministry of Interior.  Would the SPD agree to allow the Linke to get this critical ministry?  Unknown.  

If this left coalition business did occur.....would the public question a number of changes coming in 2022?  I would assume so. 

Covid Incidence Rate Dropping

 Well....yeah.

As of last night, in my local area (Wiesbaden), the rate sits at 80.0 per 100,000.  If you go back ten days ago, it was at 120.  At the peak point, around 7 September.....it was 144 per 100k.  

Reasoning for this?  Well, you can go and suggest several things (vacation period ended, number of folks vaccinated, 2G hygiene rules in place, etc).

In the past 24 hours for new infections in Wiesbaden?  Six people....that's it.

National level?  68.5 per 100k.  So it's all trending down.

Fourth wave dropping.....so the hype to expect in about a month or two....the 'fifth' wave to occur?  Probably.

I will say this...if you use the map graphics for Hessen (the state).....urbanized areas are the one most affected....rural areas are having a very low incidence rate presently.  One region in the NE of the state has an incidence rate of only 23 per 100,000.  

Are Elections in Germany 'Free and Fair'?

The election is 7 days away, and it's worth a moment to ask this question.

If you broke this up into four categories: voting rights, registration, proper counting, and voter identification.....I'd say that Germany is maxed out on the detail of 'free and fair'.

If you can't vote in person....you can vote by mail.  

Ballots are hand-counted....not by machine.

The law says as you move (even from one location to a block away)....you have to register your address with the local city hall.

Voting structures rarely if ever move.  Some Germans will tell you that they've been voting for 70 years in some village, and the location has been the same place for the whole time.

You have to show up with your national ID card....mandated that you have it in your possession when leaving the house.

Multiple voting?  Just about impossible to accomplish once you mix the ID card into the process.

Voting always on a Sunday, when roughly 98-percent of people are off from work.

Voting establishments shut down by 6 PM.  

No complicated ballots with 30-odd positions to vote upon, or a dozen referendums to mark.

If any type of accidental screw-up or intentional screw-up occurs.....the head guy for that station is probably finished on the trust issue.  

Humble opinion....it's just awful hard to find an example where an election situation has occurred and fraud is suggested.  

Solar Story

 If you drive around urbanized areas of Germany enough....you tend to notice a small but growing trend.  Some Germans living in apartment buildings, with balconies....are hanging up solar panels on the rails of the balcony.

Drawing a big charge?  NO.

If you figure the average sized balcony, you can probably hang up a max of two solar panels.  Experts claim this is enough to draw about 600 Watts.  

Cost factor for the two?  Around 750 to 850 Euro.  The instructions to install?  Simple enough that a guy can do it himself.

If you figure around five hours a day of sunshine....you can 'produce' around 3,000 Watts per day (more or less).  The math says (not that I'm an expert on this stuff).....that you can charge up a 125ah battery in about five hours.  

What you could probably power, if you had full sunshine for the day?  Basically all the lights in the house (if they were LED), the water heater, your tab/cellphone recharger, your toaster, your coffee maker, and a small fridge unit.  AC unit or electrical heating?  Forget about it.  Charging your car?  That's a no-go with the apartment deal.  

Course, the question comes up....from these two hanging panels on the balcony you rent....where does all this cabling lead to (meaning  the battery), and how you tie this into your apartment 'grid'?  

Then to the final issue....did you even ask your landlord about this?

So a case came up recently.....renters didn't ask permission of the landlord.  They just installed the two panels.  Court came out in the past week and said....because solar stuff is mentioned in the Constitution....there are certain aspects here.  There was apparently nothing in the rental agreement to prevent the installation of the two panels on the rails of the balcony.

The odds that future contracts will have limitations?  I'd give it a 99-percent chance of happening.

A smart idea?  I would offer three observations:

1.  You have to face a good direction for this to work, without clutter of trees or other buildings.  I might suggest that fewer than 40-percent of German apartment dwellers are in a good direction to gain off this idea.

2.  Clouds being a problem?  There's maybe a hundred days out of the year in Germany when it's zero clouds and you get the full payback off the panels.

3.  If you were pretty conservative (being skimpy) on your apartment items.....I would imagine that you could fully power your apartment at least a hundred days out of the year.  But fitting into a model of 'pretty conservative'?  I'd suggest less than 10-percent of German society fits that model.  

All of this action requiring a professional electrician?  I've watched the videos (installation of the two panels idea) and would admit that I could do most of the work myself.  I would hire the electrician to come in and ensure it was correct in the end.

As for this taking off as a trend?  It's anyone's guess.  

E-Scooters and Accidents

 N-TV did a report today and talked over the trend of E-Scooters and accidents.

It's odd thing that has been introduced in almost all German cities over the past five years.  You walk to a corner of the train station, and here are forty-odd E-Scooters standing there and waiting for customers to 'log-on'.  You go to a shopping district....there might be 200 of the E-Scooters around the various corners of the district.

So N-TV pointed out this fact....there's just a fair number of accidents that occur now....with people drunk or slightly-drunk....attempting to ride an E-Scooter. 

A few weekends ago....Friday evening (early), I noted two young guys riding on such a scooter in the city....who'd obviously had a drink or two....speeding at a minimum of 30 kph. 

Age limit on the E-Scooters?  Well....the government says age fourteen minimum.  A few weeks ago....in the city, they had some kid (12 years old) who crashed into a pole (yeah, he needed some medical attention).  How he got an account?  Anyone's guess.  Is this a big problem?  I'd take a guess if you stand around Wiesbaden....probably 10-percent of the riders are juveniles under age fourteen (yes, even young girls).

Eventually going to trigger some massive rule/law change?  The day will come where some kid runs over some grandma.....accidentally killing the old gal, and all political heck will break loose on new rules.  

Talk Over Oktoberfest

 Oktoberfest for 2020 and 2021 were cancelled....lot of cash revenue/profits....down the drain.

I noticed while watching N-TV (German commercial news) this morning....new hype.  The Munich mayor is meeting with folks, and he wants a full-up plan for 2022....to conduct Oktoberfest.

But he's blunt on this fact.....no one will get entry if they aren't tested or vaccinated.  

My gut feeling, just on 'fear' alone, I'd expect the crowds to be 10 to 20 percent less than normal.  

Then you take the problem of forcing everyone (probably even those vaccinated) to specially tested (probably some entry fee into the fest grounds of fifteen Euro to pay for this business).  A  massive security fence operation?  More or less, with posted guards everywhere.

But I suspect the city revenue machine is desperate to make this work.  A normal fest would turn around 1.5-billion Euro for the city/region.  A lot of people would hint that their 'take' during each fest was almost 50-percent of their yearly income. 

Germany and Covid

 So, there is a piece by Focus today, which chats to the idea that the Covid rate is on the decline in Germany.

The 4th wave ended?  Well....the 7-day incidence rate is down to 72 (locally in my town of Wiesbaden....last night, they put the rate at 101, but it's been on a decline pace for ten days now).

The hospitalization rate?  Still worrisome (by their standards).....1.89 per 100,000 residents.  Course...back around Christmas, the hospital rate was up to around 15 per 100,000 residents.

The new rule?  If you have a positive on the antibody test, you only need one vaccination shot.  Supposed to be coming out via RKI in the next ten days.  

Junkie-Quarter, Frankfurt

 HR, our regional public TV network for Hessen.....did a long piece on Frankfurt and the drug epidemic.  

So, to lay out this story....I'll describe how Frankfurt was at the end of the 1970s, and you'd basically say that hash/cannabis and heroin were it.  The binge business....the massive dealer issues....these all came in the period after the wall came down (after 1990).  Nothing existed that made you call it a 'problem'.  

In this new era (after 1990)....the dealers were no longer Turks....they were other 'new' guests of the country.  The bad part of Frankfurt?  It basically was a cone-shaped area about 1,200 feet from the front of the station....going into the red-light district.

In the past twenty years?  There's dozens of drugs now available and the police will admit that the 'war' is finished....you can't rid the city of the drug problem.    At the same time, there is massive hostility of regular people who live within a kilometer of the station and see the whole area as a junkie-paradise.

What HR says?  They number the junkie population now in the city of Frankfurt at around 5,000.  

The talk of private security being brought in by pubs/restaurants to resolve the problem?  Too costy.

The crime now in this district.....to include within the station itself?  I'd tell anyone using the train station (even the subway)....to make your way in and as quickly as possible....get to your next connection.  Get the heck out of the station as quickly as possible.  There's no reason to linger in the area in front of the station or on the streets of the next two or three blocks.

What'll eventually happen?  HR just hints that social programs are being discussed and some rehab offerings.

My humble belief is that it'll reach a stage where 10,000 junkies exist in the Bahnhof-quarter, and the public goes into an election where various parties get 'fired'.  Then we end up with some shocking compound area where the junkies are dumped into, given a full year of rehab (mandated) and those who don't resolve their issue....just spend the rest of their life in a compound on the edge of the city.

Political Chatter

 The ZDF (Channel Two, public TV) Politbarometer came to be updated today.  Two aspects worth discussing:

1.  There's only 3 points separating SPD and CDU-CSU.

2.  There's a poll they did, and it suggests that a third of the voting public are NOT decided yet on who they will vote for.

Any truth to this?  I would suggest it's more of the case that no one is really that 'attractive' and a quarter of the folks aren't that happy over the choices. 

Potential that 10-to-20 percent might make the decision at the last minute?  Yeah, that might happen.

Shocker value of this election?  The gut feeling is that the SPD will win, and it'll be a marginal number of votes for this victory (certainly less than 30-percent).  So the coalition question is actually a bigger deal than who wins.  

That Terror Attack Arrest From Yesterday

 Well....more came out last night from the police and if you view ARD news (Channel One, public TV), it comes down to four facts:

1.  The 16-year old Syrian kid denies 'planning'.  

2.  The 16-year old Syrian kid was 'chatting' with some non-German and advice of some type was passed on how to construct an explosive.  

3.  Some foreign service went to the BND (Germany's CIA) and gave them the tip.

4.  The raid of the home did not reveal anything to say explosives were there.  

Humble view: The kid was on chat pages and got into a discussion with someone who probably wasn't helping him with math or offering advice on dates.  Beyond that....there's nothing of a legal nature that you can hold the kid for.  However, I'd wager pretty good money that the kid is now on some observation list for the next year or two.  If I were the kid's dad....I'd take away all computer access and his cellphone....for at least a year.  

Transportation and Numbers

 There are a couple  of German statistics I saw today which are worth talking about....from local Wiesbaden news:

1.  Number of German cars on the road presently (from entire country)....as of January 2021: 48.2 million.  Note, that's 14-percent MORE than a decade ago.

2.  Percentage of Germans walk to work?  7-percent.

3.  Percentage of Germans who ride a bike to work? 10-percent.

4.  Percentage of Germans who ride public transportation (bus and tram) to work? 13-percent.

5.  Percentage of Germans who drive a car to work? 68-percent.

6.  There are 108 cars for every 100 households....meaning the second car situation (compared against a decade ago) is increasing...not decreasing.

Selling the public on public transportation?  In general, it only works in highly urbanized cities (Frankfurt or Hamburg, good examples of this).  In towns where it's just 100k residents....I would vouch that selling public transportation is extremely hard.  

I would also suggest that the bike rider group probably has expanded their radius (if anyone would do a survey on this) and a fair number don't mind biking ten kilometers (one-way) to work.  

Terror Attack Prevented

 This morning....lot of chatter via the national news in Germany, over Hagen (western part of Germany).

So the basic story....some 16-year old Syrian 'kid' is accused by the police in plotting an attack on a Jewish synagogue (explosives is the word used).  He was stopped by the police, appears to be a non-German source (from outside of the country that provided the warning.

More likely to be discussed by tonight's news.  

The Numbers Problem

 There's a long piece on HR (public TV for Hessen) on the issues of the newly identified 'process' to cover the Covid infection rate.  In simple terms, they 'dump' on the hospitalization rate (the new standard), and basically hint that the old rate (infection per 100k residents) should be brought back.

The problem here.....no matter which method you use....it all leads to questionable values in the end.

Earlier this year, the Mainz University folks came out and did a major 'test' of the general public (only that region) and found that whatever legit number you used for the PCR-proven Covid folks.....that another 40-percent had a marginal Covid infection and never were tested (likely thinking they had a plain cold).  

If you had Covid....got tested....then lapsed into a 5-day period of illness with doctor-prescribed treatments successful in downsizing the Covid....how should you be 'counted' or 'identified'?  

If you had serious and bad Covid....requiring hospitalization but NOT ventilator support....how should you be 'counted' or 'identified'?  

If you had ICU treatment with the ventilator.....how should you be 'counted' or 'identified'?  

If you survived the virus, but ended up with 'long-Covid'....how should you be 'counted' or 'identified'?  

If you died in the hospital or at home, but had secondary issues going on.....how should you be 'counted' or 'identified'?  

The problem I see.....you need an Einstein type formula with at least ten different numbers....done on a daily basis, and only then do you reach some type of logical answer.

But to the regular German on the street....would this Einstein formula even make any sense?  That's really the problem here. 

Last Night's Political Hype

 I watched the last 30 minutes of the Laschet 'chat' from ARD (channel one, public TV here in Germany).  

If you compared his delivery to three months ago?  I'd say he's 'moved mountains', and he probably captivated those who watched the 90-minute episode.  He had the tie off....talked at a level that people preferred....and wasn't caught on stupid questions. 

Enough to pick up 4 more points (to be nearly even with the SPD)?  Well....it's a big question mark, if you ask me.

Most polls (done in the past week) say the CDU/Laschet sit at 21-percent of the public vote.  The SPD is put between 25 to 26 percent. 

A month ago, I would have said it's nearly impossible for Laschet to make up the point difference.  I might go and say that now, but argue that he'll recover at least another point or two.  It'll be a closer race than people think.  

But this brings to the 'driver' of this election.  No one in Germany is hyped up over enthusiasm for either of the three candidates (Scholz, Baerbock, or Laschet).  All three have some problems/weaknesses, and probably demonstrated character flaws.  

The 'War' Story

 Earlier in the week, my wife brought up this topic from Handelsblatt (the German version of the Wall Street Journal).

So the story goes this way....they put a couple of folks onto a research project...looking at Covid, government revenue income, profits of companies, and economic trends.

They say in pretty blunt language.....everything in Germany is now relative to a full scale war, in terms of financial chaos and 'damage' done to society.

I can walk around various areas of Frankfurt, Mainz or Wiesbaden, and point out various business fronts which are now fully closed ('for sale' or 'for rent' signs in the windows).  

Most all pub/bar owners just shake their head....they are marginally hanging on and hoping that a shutdown/curfew does not occur here in this fall.  

Improving signs?  Well....you can assess passengers at Frankfurt's airport and suggest that things are significantly better than in September of 2020.  

But in simple terms....the damage has been done.  

My Day Yesterday

 I spent most of yesterday at a clinic/hospital appointment for my wife in Offenbach (SE suburb of Frankfurt).  The dire Covid problems led to the 'guard' of the front-door to ban me from entry because I didn't have business....so only the German wife entered for the 5-hour period.  I stood and sat on the park bench outside of the place....waiting.

So, by mid-morning....I sat there and could hear this screaming.  Down toward the parking garage....whole bunch of screaming.  I gazed over and here was this mother dragging (I mean it in the literal sense) this kid.  I would take a guess that the kid was about 7 years old.

The lady was a light-weight....maybe a hundred pounds at best.

Every step of the way....he was fighting as hard as he could, and she had to have an incredible grip on his arm, to keep him from running off.

This went on for about ten minutes.....dragging a bit....resting a moment....dragging some more.

It was not German that he was uttering....I'd only be guessing but suggesting both were Sri Lankan. 

Most Americans and probably half of German society....would have stopped in the parking lot and just beaten the 'fire' out of the kid.  This gal never went at that angle....showed a lot of patience/love for the kid. 

It would have been curious what his fury was about, but I noted even as they finally got past the door guard.....the kid was still screaming at full-power.  

Coalition Chatter

 Focus had a piece today over polling with the idea of coaltions.  So they asked the public....how they felt for a SPD-Green-Linke (far left) group? 

Forty-three percent of German society 'feared' such a coalition.  

The Dividing Line For the Public

 There's a good news/commentary piece by my regional public TV crowd (HR).  The topic?  "Division of Society" or "Consistent Adjustment"?

So, what they jump into....this continual Covid ban-rule change landscape, and how people/commerce are in a business model that just won't settle.  It's drawn from the  prospective of politicians, and from business people (bar, grill, pub, restaurant, etc).

I would suggest now (roughly 18 months into Covid introducing itself into Germany) that just about every German is skeptical of intentions of governmental authority.  

To make some people happy, with the new 2G rules set to start tomorrow (Thursday)....the state authorities have said that indoor social distancing rules are now erased.  The attitude is that if you got immunized.....you must be protected (as part of the 2G view of things).  I suspect if you asked most bar/pub owners....they are laughing over this new change, and expect it to be a brief period of no indoor social distancing....then the whole ban-rule will be dragged back into focus.

End of the 7-Day Incidence Rate?

 Well....yeah, my state of Hessen here in Germany....announced today that the 'device' of hospitalization-rate will dissolve away on Thursday morning.

It was a number device to tell you the Covid-rate of influence, per 100,000 residents in a city or town.  Far as I know....since March of 2020....it's been around.

The new number device?  Well....it's two.

As HR (our public TV folks) puts it:

The first stage or rate is when hospitalization occurs in a normal 'ward'.

The second stage/rate is when you reach the level of intensive care (I perceive this meaning ICU related). 

Could you end up in the hospital with Covid but never advance past a normal quarantine ward?  Yes.  My wife had a co-worker who developed Covid and was doing the at-home situation....then got dehydrated....getting an ambulance call, and put on a drip for about 12 hours.  Then the hospital said adios....telling her to go home and recover there (emphasizing hydrating herself).   

Are these geared to tell a positive story?  No one is saying or suggesting that.  But you'd have to imagine that various medical folks have sat and looked at 2020 numbers and played with these two models.

So you could have three sets of numbers?  Well....there's the quarantined-at-home crowd, then the regular quarantined-at-the-hospital-ward crowd, and then the ICU-crowd.  

Part of this story, I would imagine....is that some treatment plans or strategies have developed over the past six months, and fewer people will be in the hospital or in the ICU....just my humble guess.  How many fewer?  Unknown.

The reality here?  Just getting plain Covid and resting at home for seven to fourteen days....won't really be a daily-count-mess.  Someone will sit and figure up that it's a very small number of folks who end up in the ICU, and maybe it's just not that big of a day if you only counted those folks.

2G Coming

 In the past week, news media of my region (Hessen) have gone out and asked places of commerce about their reception of the idea of 2G mandates for Covid (only allowing customers in, if they were vaccinated, or recovered....meaning these tested people or tested non-vax folks are not welcome in the interiors).  The bulk of them are absolutely unhappy about 2G and openly saying that.  They generally expect a cut in business and customers.  

Well...today, the state Prime Minister, Volker Bouffier, announced as of Thursday morning.....2G is in effect for the entire state.  Then he says there will be 'no restrictions' (meaning no masks, no distancing, etc).

Locations involved in this business?  Restaurants, cafés, bars, kinos, hairdressing salons).  

How long the 'no restrictions' attitude goes?  I might go and suggest if they are lucky....they might keep this gimmick up for two months....before some significant change arrives (probably curfew or shutdowns).  

Lockdowns Coming Again?

 As I kinda predicted several months ago....German authorities (federal-level) now quietly discussing some type of lockdown to start shortly (Focus gives a few details this morning).

This apparently comes from a 'secret' internal document (Bild acquired it) within the government, and talks to trade-fairs/conferences (potential for problems going up).  

There is some hint that all of this will be laid out after the election (26th of Sep).

My humble guess?  There's probably some three tier lockdown situation dreamed up and as bad as it was in mid-December of 2020....we probably will reach that extreme lockdown situation once again by December....infuriating a lot of Germans that the vaccination business has marginal effect.  

Anger that the CDU/SPD coalition isn't opening discussing the matter?  Opposition politicians hint that this is a very negative way of doing business.  

E-Car Grid Story

 I sat and read through this piece on Wattsupwiththat this morning.

The British government is finalizing some regulations on E-Cars/charging stations, and it's a bit curious how they word this.

The regulation concerns the chargers you have in your home/apartment building.  When you go out and purchase your  home-charger (I'd assume if you already have one, you'd have to bring the electrician in to 'correct' it in some way), it has to be set to be OFF for nine hours on work-days (Mon-Fri). 

Why?  Well....fear of blackouts is apparently the prescribed reason.  No one is sure if the grid can handle the 'pressure'.

The chargers on motorways or in public locations?  Oddly enough, exempt.

If you were curious about how many E-Cars exist in the UK?  Well....they suggest it's around 300k.  

This is one of those topics that the Germans haven't brought up, and you have to wonder about.

Back in August, the Germans noted they'd finally reached the one-million level on E-cars.  In my village?  I'd take an educated guess that there are at least forty of the cars. 

This grid max-out situation?  You would assume that PhD-types have sat down....added the numbers and come to some ratio of sorts (X number of E-Cars, required charge for 3 hours, and current grid capability).  

I would say this....somewhere between 2028 and 2032....I generally expect some 2-hour shutdown in the German grid, which is cryptically explained to the public the next day.  Ten days after that....I expect some German in authority to announce a similar limit regulation on hours in the day that you can charge the E-car at home (probably mandating it has to be after 10 PM).  

Eventually (six months after this event)....some truth-commission will be formed and conclude that the German grid isn't capable of handling a majority of cars being battery-type, and some massive high-cost renovation program has to take place (in a hurry).  

Plagiarism Hype

 I sat and watched a short piece on N-TV (German commercial news) this AM.  Curious investigative deal.

So, there's this plagiarism 'hunter' (Stefan Weber).  He's now completed a study of candidate Baerbock (for the Green Party) and her book (Now, How We Renew Our Country).  It came out very early this year.  

What he says is that there are a minimum of 100 pieces in the book which fit into lacking citations or sources incorrectly given.  

He also has studied books by Scholz and Laschet....finding similar problems but not at the rate that Baerbock committed.  

What really happened here?  My humble view is that Baerbock just flat out made a sudden decision to write a book....just to get interviews or notice by the news media.  Then she (or her hired 'writer) just rushed through the process....copying and pasting....word-smithing...wrapping up the project in record time.  

If the plagiarism hunters started doing this on a daily basis?  Well....you'd probably find half the books written in the past five years to be 'guilty' of something.  

As for Baerbock possibly writing a future book?  That might be an interesting question to ask. 

Speed Commentary

 There was a piece written by Focus over the 130-tempo limit for autobahns, and it's worth a moment to review commentary. 

Politically, the Greens, Linke and SPD are for the 130 limit....while the CDU-CSU, the AfD and FDP don't see that much reason for the limit chatter.

Polling trends?  They suggest 57-percent of the German public wants the limit of 130 to occur.  

The odds here?  I'll predict at some point in 2022....the 130 kph limit is applied to the bulk of autobahns....with maybe a couple of regions given a brief period (maybe 3 years) to still continue with no limits (Baden-Wurttemberg and Bavaria might be the two that still maintain some zero limits).  

Personally, I don't think that many people travel beyond the 130 kph limit....even at this point today.  It'd surprise me if we were talking about a quarter of the population as being speed-enthusiasts.  

Political Chatter

 It was mostly all election chatter last night (Sunday) on ARD and ZDF (Channel One/Two of public TV).  Between that 3-way chatter, and the analytical shows that came after that point....you got around 3 hours of talk.  

The polls after the three candidates did their thing?  Scholz of SPD clearly won (41 percent of the public said that).  CDU's Laschet (Merkel's team replacement) got around 27 percent of the vote), and the Greens Baerbock came in at 25 percent.

I gave it around 20 minutes of viewing....it wasn't worth it beyond that point.  Some food product show was actually more thrilling (featuring something called 'bacon-jam').

I think the general public is locked down at this point....spending any more money on advertisements or such....waste of time. 

Polling groups (from the last couple of days) generally all give 25 to 27 percent to the SPD Party, with the CDU somewhere between 19 and 22 percent.  

The real question left.....who makes up the coalition in the end, and just how harsh do things change over the next year or two?

This World Cup Discussion

 A month ago, this wasn't discussed much around German soccer-enthusiasts.  Today?  I'd say it's a significant topic.  So to the bulk of the discussion.

Every four years....soccer (worldwide) has a international 'cup'.  You can call it the 'superbowl' of soccer, which takes about a month to conduct.  It attracts a lot of media attention and tons of money for the FIFA organization.  Each country picks up their best citizen-players, and meets in one country for the series.  

If you polled most German guys....about fifty percent will tell you it's big deal (they grill more and gulp down more beer in this month-long period).  From German women, they mostly grin, and probably seventy-percent will tell you it's a total waste of time.

So FIFA has opened up this discussion....why have this only once every four years?  Why not every other year?

The German soccer authorities?  Well....they aren't happy about this discussion.

In general, there is a second series called the UEFA Championship....which is basically a European deal only.  55 European countries are eligible for this, and 24 of the top 'clubs' will play it.

There's a fair amount of money made off this.  

How often is this UEFA deal held?  Every four years....in between the World Cup games. 

So you go to a local successful German club (say Frankfurt, or Mainz), and they have the regular season (34 games), and then at the conclusion....there's a play-off of sorts (eats up another month).  So between the season, the playoffs, and season-starting period (getting in shape)....there's forty-four weeks that a player has to contend with. That gives him some Christmas time off and roughly six weeks of mid-summer off.  

But if you figure the UEFA deal and the World Cup deal (each every four years)....that summer period off (six weeks) is gone. 

So players are getting every two years....a pretty short summer, and the whole German league season is pushed to the extreme....to work as it is today.

Then you want to repeat the World Cup every two years?  I suspect most players will say that by age thirty....under this extreme scheduling....they are mostly finished physically. 

What's driving the idea of every other year a World Cup?  Well...MORE profit for FIFA management.  They could double their income.

Halting this discussion?  Near impossible.  FIFA, TV sports, and the general public is moving toward accepting the every-other-year idea.

What I suspect will happen?  I think that ten-percent of the top players around the German league will just say at the conclusion of the regular season....they are 'off' and refuse to participate in either the World Cup or the UEFA games.  You won't see the best of the best play, and it'd be obvious that you are viewing a lesser product.

The folks who do play?  I would suggest that most will demand more cash (from the UEFA or World Cup folks), and have a retirement plan in their mind by their late 20s.  

2G Skeptics

 With Covid ban rules pushed to the limit....the 3G/2G idea was supposed to make everyone 'happy'. 

HR (my regional public TV folks) did a interview piece with various business operations (bars, pubs, restaurants, etc).

So, on 3G and 2G?  It's marginally appreciated.  

On 2G, if pushed into NO Covid tests....you have to be vaccinated or recovered?  It's enormously negative.

What people generally believe when confronted with the 2G landscape?  The government is pursuing an agenda to force the non-vax crowd to get the vaccination. 

If they don't?  Well....my general economic take is that customers/consumers will boycott the industry, and a month....bring back the miserably bad months of November/December 2020.  If you wanted angry business owners on the frustrating level of things.....this would do the job.

2G likely to disappear?  I would suggest by late November....the national leadership will dump it.  

Will the free Covid test deal come back? I doubt it....but you might see a deal where the consumer pays 3 Euro and the state pays 6 Euro, and somehow the testing 'empire' will accept that level of profit and continue on.

Election Chatter

 INSA (the polling organization) came out with a weekend result today.  From my general prospective....they are one of the top three most reliable polling organizations in Germany.

Todays results?

The SPD is safely at 26-percent (2 weeks prior to the election).  The CDU is safely at second place....at 20-percent.

Loser in this poll?  Greens lost another point and sit at 15-percent (down half a point over two weeks).

AfD at 11-percent....FDP at 13-percent, and the Linke Party at 6-percent.  You might give a half-point plus-up for the FDP over the past two weeks.

At this point....if the Greens or Linke don't recover a point each....I'd say the SPD-Green-Linke coalition idea is dissolving away.  I might suggest with the two remaining weeks....both the Linke and Green stand a chance of losing half-a-point each.  

Scholz as Chancellor?  I'd give it a 99-percent chance at this point.  

The idea of a SPD-Green-FDP government?  Well....historically, the FDP has a serious problem with the bulk of the Green agenda.  It'd be awful hard to get a coalition worked up, and I would imagine that the FDP would be demanding to get the vice-Chancellor seat; getting the Finance Ministry and Justice Ministry as well. 

The SPD leadership preferring this situation?  No one says much in public.  In the past, a fair number of SPD folks didn't want a far-left view of politics. 

If this SPD-Green-FDP government were to occur.....it just doesn't seem Laschet of the CDU Party would be around, and some rebuilding process would start up for Merkel's party.

If you asked me to gauge 'hype' in this election?  It's just not the type of hype that occurred in 2017 or 2013.  No one is really that excited, and no one is that thrilled over Scholz, Baerbock or Laschet as Chancellor-candidates.

Can't Remember Moment

 In a Q-and-A, ZDF (Channel Two, public TV) gave an opportunity to the AfD Party to speak.  

I'm one of those people who generally shake my head over the AfD, and their program.  

You tend to have an awful lot of marginalized characters who moved up in the ranks and throughout the sixteen states....there's probably thirty-odd members who are on TV and quizzed on a weekly basis.  A couple are qualified to speak....several of them are just plain out-of-touch with current trends.

Officially, on the books....they are the anti-party.  They were designed originally to be the anti-Euro party.  They wanted to bring back the old Mark.

Since 2015, they've been the anti-immigration party.

So, via ZDF....the interview reached some point with Tino Chrupalla.  Up until this point, I would have said that Chrupalla was progressing to the point where he was a top five member of the party.

The hype, which the ZDF reporter pointed at....AfD wanted more German grammar emphasis in schools (more German-produced literature/poems).  Chrupalla went down this path in his answer.

Then the reporter asked....what his favorite German poem was.  All Chrupalla had to do....was cite a two-line piece from some stupid poem, and attribute it to someone.  

Chrupalla fails completely at this key moment.....no memory of a favorite poem.

I just sat there shaking my head.  You had to expect this new agenda item to come up in conversation, and Chrupalla should have had five good examples of books or poems in his mind.  

So the idea that the AfD is not prepared for the big leagues? Yeah, I'd say that's pretty much true.  

Germany and Covid, Since Day One

 The gov't has an official tally which is published daily, and I'd generally regard it as being 99-percent accurate.  What it misses?  Well...people who had a very light case of Covid and never were tested....so they aren't in the official numbers.  It's anyone's guess on that number.  

Infections since day one across the country: 4,073,028 (as of last night). (Yes, some folks are on episode two of the virus, so you can't count these as one per person)

Deaths since day across the country: 92,607 (out of 83-million residents).

New deaths in past 24 hours: 47

Germans in some form of quarantine presently today: 162,521.  (these include family members who haven't tested positive, so it's always a questionable number)

Germans in ICU situations: 1,439.

Germans on ventilators: 765.

Present number having the full vaccination deal: 62-percent, with another four percent waiting on the second vaccination....so the number ought to reflect 66-percent roughly.

If you asked on enthusiasm waning?  No one from the government will suggest another 10-percent eager to get the vaccination.  It's anyone's guess that they might be able to hit the 70-percent point by the end of 2021.

Last night night, I noticed a science report (brief in nature) where a German company is developing an inhalant that would whip the Covid-virus.  You'd just inhale the mist (I assume at least once or twice a week) and you'd be 'saved'.  Cost?  Unknown (that might be worth asking).  Delivery?  Won't be anytime in 2021....you can only guess that it's coming by summer of 2022.  

So we come to this odd new way of counting the bad nature of Covid.....the number of people who are actually hospitalized (not the number who get infected).  This takes the rate or index.....compared against 100k people in a local, state, or national level.

This is an odd detail to lay out.  Back around the Christmas holidays....things were considered pretty dire and bad....which the hospitalization rate would have been figured at around 15.5.  

In simple terms....the peak or worst-of-the-worst was that Christmas period.  Well....presently, even with people walking around with Covid-antibodies (having the virus before) and vaccinated people......the current hospitalization rate is only 1.95.  

Yeah....it's barely 15-percent of what existed around the holidays period.  One might go and suggest that a lot of the recent hype is still left-over vacation issues, and that the hospitalization rate ought to max here in mid-September and 'chill' a bit before winter starts up.

Pension Chatter

 I noticed this via a Focus business article this morning.....the Linke Party went out and asked the Ministry of Labor to detail pensions in Germany.  So the result came back.....kinda shocking.

So from regular Germans....82-percent make 1,500 Euro or less, as a monthly pension.

From government-career Germans....95-percent make 1,500 Euro or more, as a monthly pension.

For years, the government-job crowd have been 'blessed' and they know it.  This group includes teachers, firemen, the police, and regular city-or-state employees. 

What's going to happen here?  Well....at the least, the Linke Party is going to pick up pension reform.  The grit though?  Someone down the line is going to pay more in tax revenue....than they do today.  You just don't know who that person is.

So to the discussion of this....how much is 1,500 Euro?  About 1,800 US dollars.  The general retirement age situation?  65, but it's going up in the coming years to 67.  

What most older Germans will say is if you live outside of urbanized areas, own your property, and have some savings....you can live in decent comfort with about 1,000 Euro a month.  Somewhere in this mix, there's probably a 450-Euro monthly job that the husband or wife is committed to as well.

For those people making 1,000 Euro a month on a pension, who don't own their condo/house, living in an area like Hamburg or Frankfurt, with zero savings?  They are probably on the edge of the welfare class.  

As for how this could be 'fixed' or resolved?  Well....naturally, you'd raise everyone's contribution currently for the 'bucket'....meaning a 25-year old German would contribute another 25-odd Euro a month, and the older guy near 65 would reap the rewards of the higher contribution of the 'youngster'.  Unfair?  The young guy would say that....yeah.

But here's the other slant to this idea.....if you go and screw with the economy....cutting 10,000 jobs here, and 4,000 jobs there, then there's less money going into the pot to cover pensions.  So the last thing on Earth you want in Germany is some foolish political group crapping on the jobs market and helping to move production outside of the country.

I agree.....there's a problem, but it's going to turn into 'rocket-science' by the time you get to the end.  

Lab Meat?

 There was a piece from yesterday via my public TV network in Hessen (HR), and it had to do with lab-produced 'beef'.

The short theme to this story is that a company out of Darmstadt....Merck....is on a study to eventually produce lab-meat, which would mean your grocery would slip over and try to convince you to buy this....instead of real-meat.

Problems?  Well....they got into the science part of it and admitted this one issue.  If this took off.....you'd have to grow a ton of fake-meat, and this would require magnificent/huge facilities.  

These facilities likely to be in Germany?  Well....they didn't say that.  Something that might be grown in Africa?  Well....you just sit there and wonder about this production side of the story.

I paused over this and wondered....out of a hundred meat-eaters....how many would convert?  Most people would give a 'go', but I seriously doubt that you get more than 20-percent of folks signed up to this lab idea.

Would Germany reach a point where they taxed the heck out of real meat....to entice you to cheap lab meat?  I could imagine that trend in ten years.  

Bridge Chatter

 This week, in my local area of Wiesbaden....final plans were supposed to be 'whipped' up for the toppling of the local A66 autobahn bridge (Salzbachtalbrücke).  For those not familiar with the bridge....it's been around for forty years and is a key autobahn bridge in the region....also allowing almost all railway traffic to go beneath it, and allowing the flow of traffic into the city of Wiesbaden.

A  couple of months ago....some assessment occurred, and the shock came to a blunt level....the bridge was fairly close to collapsing.  So it's been closed since then, and created a lot of turmoil in the area (railway operations are marginally working in the city presently and autobahn travel is hampered to the max).

So yesterday, the demolition date got pushed back....to early November.  Various safety issues lingered.  

This is the third bridge 'mess' of the region in the past four years.  Oddly, if you were looking for a topic that most locals will engage in and question almost weekly....bridges tend to be one of the top twenty topics.    

Topics That Aren't Openly Discussed

 For this 2021 German federal election....there's a lot of chatter going on, but you tend to notice three topics never mentioned by the various candidates or the journalists.

1.  The inflation rate.  In mid-July, the rate was assessed at 3.8-percent.  Most expect it to close in December at 5-percent or more. 

There's not a lot that the top three parties can say or do....except just ride the rate out, and hope that 2022 is better.

2.  Debt is growing.  It doesn't matter if you go talk about business debt, personal debt, or governmental debt.  Covid has had an enormous influence on the business model that was considered normal.

3.  Finally, to the evil topic of tax revenue going up.  Just about every single German expects taxes to rise in 2022....no matter who the winner of the election is.

When you add these three together....it's an economic nightmare, and hinders any real trust that things will improve in 2022.

So the politicians try hard to avoid the topics, and just pretend they don't exist.

Poll Story

 There was an unusual poll done by the Civey folks (one of the top three polling organizations in Germany).  Focus talked about it today.

The question?  If the CDU replaced Laschet, with Bavaria's Soder.....what are the numbers for Soder in the mix?

37-percent for Soder.  The party would easily win.  The big loser?  The FDP would slip back to 6-percent.....where it'd be the typical average for them.

Changing anything (2 weeks prior to the election)?  NO.  

I would go and suggest that once the election concludes....a fair number of the CDU membership will demand that the executive committee (roughly 40 individuals) stand down and be entirely replaced.  

The Purification Folks

 I was reading a piece this morning....talking about a ceremony in Ontario, Canada (the other side of the world, for me).  So this was called a 'flame purification' ceremony.  

What's it supposed to achieve?  You take all the bad words....bad pictures...bad drawings...bad poems...bad books....bad jokes....bad whatever, and throw them into a pit.  No, you don't pour gas or lighter fluid on it....you just light it up, and then stand there with a solemn look on your face.

The reporters don't really give you that great of an image.  There's no special words....no Cher song sung...no waving of sheets or flags....no shaman or Nazi chants.  Nothing.

At the conclusion, when the fire has exhausted itself....you stir the ashes and plant some tree.

Now, when I read this piece....I was thinking...'book-burning'.  You know...the 1930s Nazi-stuff.

But no, these people from the SW district of Ontario wanted folks to know....this was a real 'pure' ceremony.....no book-burning stuff.

As I read on....with the words of Radio Canada telling the story....they wanted to reassure me that while the original plan was to burn 4,700 books....something changed their mind and they just burned a couple of items to get 'pure'.

The fact that TinTin books were among the burned?  Well....in their mind, TinTin, his stupid dog Snowy, the diabolical Professor Calculus, the sinister Captain Haddock, and Thompson are all evil characters (almost fascists in nature).  Personally, I always thought that TinTin kid needed more discipline in his life....real structure....hearty work to build characters.  This adventure stuff was a total waste of time.  

I sat and thought about purification for a while.  Some of us would view purification as something that you sip through several bottles of wine and eat carrots daily for a week....to get a detox feeling or some healthy purification.

In the military, you'd find people who needed purification and give them a dump-truck load of sand, and 500 sandbags to fill....to get them really purified.

On the farm, you'd find folks who needed purification and let them haul 500 bales of hay on a hot July afternoon.....to get them feeling purified.

I've worked with people who found certain drugs that could release themselves from reality for day or two....getting to some level of feeling purified.  

So I just look at the book-burners, and feel like they'd have to burn a book or two each day....to get the purification feeling to 'stick'.

Ten Humble Bits of Advice for Americans Newly Arrived in Germany

 If you were getting off the plane, and never been here before....here are my ten general pieces of advice:

1.  If you come upon an accident, DO NOT pull out your camera/smart-phone to take pictures, and DO NOT stand around to watch.  Quickly find an exit point....leave the area, and don't linger for a single minute.  Various laws are in effect in Germany to make your life miserable if you were to take any pictures.  It's not worth the hassle.

2.  Germans are absolute about Covid measures.  When going out.....have a mask, and in all interior situations (particularly on buses and trains)....wear the mask.  If having a beer or coffee with a German associate....aim to have a outdoor cafe situation.  

3.  Purchase a couple of the quickie-Covid test kits at the local grocery.  They cost around 3 Euro each.  If you have any related symptom....use the test kit.  After a positive, you might want to contact a doctor, and have a PCR test to confirm your situation.

4.  I hate using the term 'no-go' areas....so I use the term 'avoidance' areas a good bit.  Most all urbanized areas of Germany have a minimum of one such 'avoidance' area.  In Frankfurt, after dark, I might draw a 4-block area of downtown.  In Berlin, there's an entire city park that I'd tell you to avoid.  Ask locals about the situation, and draw a red circle to avoid these areas.  The people in question?  Just dopers looking for something to pay for their next fix.

5.  If using public transportation.....get the Apps on your smart-phone and buy your ticket via the App.  Be aware that audits occur everywhere via the bus and train service.  

6. If in a pub...view the drink menu carefully and fully engage on trying different beers and wines.  Beer usually comes in a .3-liter or .5-liter glass.  Some pubs will offer the 1-liter stein.....don't order that.  It's usually too much beer for the normal person.  There are hundreds of great German beers....there are hundreds of really crappy German beers....grasp this early on.

7.  On the difficulty-to-adjust-index for driving cars....whatever you were used to in the US....it's just become twice as hard in Germany.  If driving in a highly urbanized area (like Munich or Berlin)....you probably should use public transportation for the first month while you adjust.

8.  Don't start up a conversation with your German associate to explain the German political business.  This might start a 3-hour conversation, and freak you out on the bold new world you live in.

9.  Some Germans will readily admit to you that they watch fewer than ten hours of TV per week.  These are the folks who have a 400-book collection in their living room, and often refer to theaters/kinos....as 'cinemas'.  Don't freak out over the weirdness of this.

10.  If you want the true prospective or news content of your local city (like Hamburg, Bremen, or Stuttgart)....you'd best subscribe to the local newspaper.  Don't expect any televised news coverage to exist over your metropolitan area. 

Finally, I should note this...Germany is a four-season land, and winter can be a bitter experience.  Just accept that and prepare for it.