INSA (the polling organization) came out with a weekend result today. From my general prospective....they are one of the top three most reliable polling organizations in Germany.
Todays results?
The SPD is safely at 26-percent (2 weeks prior to the election). The CDU is safely at second place....at 20-percent.
Loser in this poll? Greens lost another point and sit at 15-percent (down half a point over two weeks).
AfD at 11-percent....FDP at 13-percent, and the Linke Party at 6-percent. You might give a half-point plus-up for the FDP over the past two weeks.
At this point....if the Greens or Linke don't recover a point each....I'd say the SPD-Green-Linke coalition idea is dissolving away. I might suggest with the two remaining weeks....both the Linke and Green stand a chance of losing half-a-point each.
Scholz as Chancellor? I'd give it a 99-percent chance at this point.
The idea of a SPD-Green-FDP government? Well....historically, the FDP has a serious problem with the bulk of the Green agenda. It'd be awful hard to get a coalition worked up, and I would imagine that the FDP would be demanding to get the vice-Chancellor seat; getting the Finance Ministry and Justice Ministry as well.
The SPD leadership preferring this situation? No one says much in public. In the past, a fair number of SPD folks didn't want a far-left view of politics.
If this SPD-Green-FDP government were to occur.....it just doesn't seem Laschet of the CDU Party would be around, and some rebuilding process would start up for Merkel's party.
If you asked me to gauge 'hype' in this election? It's just not the type of hype that occurred in 2017 or 2013. No one is really that excited, and no one is that thrilled over Scholz, Baerbock or Laschet as Chancellor-candidates.
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