The Forsa polling folks went out today and announced that CDU is now below the 20-percent point (sitting at 19-percent). The Greens? Around 17-percent. The FDP came up a notch....to 13-percent. Of course, the SPD is safely at 25-percent and with only three weeks left....it's a sure bet they will win at this point.
What I generally expect now? Four observations:
1. SPD wins at 25 to 26 percent. The CDU will marginally pull 18-percent on election day, with the Greens somewhere around 16-to-17 percent. The FDP will shock a few people with 15-percent.
2. Laschet is mostly finished, as the 'boss' of the CDU Party, and will linger around as Premier-President until next year's state election. I expect a CDU meeting to occur by late October. New party boss? My two choices? AKK or Spahn.
3. Will the CDU be partnering up with the SPD? It's a marginal chance. If the Greens pull 16-percent....it'll be a problem to figure the numbers for a SPD-Green-Linke coalition. If it's the CDU....I would expect CSU boss Soder (Premier-President of Bavaria) to get the vice-Chancellow role, and Interior Minister position.
4. Don't expect CDU voters to be happy with the loss, and this will be talked about a good bit over the next four years.
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