General Political Q-and-A

 1.  Is the SPD really that strong in this election?

Generally, it's the first time since 2002....that the SPD has been this far ahead of the CDU.  However, the five point lead is relative.  The CDU is actually at it's weakest point in decades (if you subtract the CSU points in Bavaria), I doubt if they have more than 12 points nationally.  You can view this as the majority of Germans don't want either the SPD or CDU as a choice.  

2.  Germans happy over the potential SPD-Green-Linke coalition?

Poll groups in past elections have said this option isn't favor by many Germans.  So far, there haven't been any polls much to ask the question in 2021.  My suspicion is that fewer than 30-percent of Germans would prefer this type of coalition government. 

3.  Does Covid remain a top-three issue in Germany after the election....no matter who wins?

Yes.  Don't go expecting much to change.

4.  Taxes to escalate in some fashion?

There's just a ton of money requirements that exist, and a limited pot to pull the money from.  So, in various ways....I'd expect new taxes or rates to come into being by mid-2022.  

5.  Will CDU voters be fairly disgusted with the pick of the party executive committee for the loser-candidate?

Covid delivered this unique moment in CDU history.....where the party membership didn't get a say.  It was the forty-odd members of the executive committee who made the final decision.  A fair number of party enthusiasts will remember this moment, and it probably won't be allowed to repeat.  I generally don't expect Laschet to last long as the party 'boss' (I might go and predict that he's gone by January).  

6.  Is there a comeback in the 'cards' for SPD's Andrea Nahles?

Nahles was the SPD Party 'boss' from spring 2018 to summer 2019, and generally liked.  There's been this brief hint by Scholz that he might like to invite her into the cabinet posts (unknown position).  Officially, she left the party and politics back two years ago, and hasn't said much politically since then. 

7.  Is there any real hype in this election?

I would suggest that it's pretty marginal hype, and no one expecting miracles out of the election results.