Thursday, November 29, 2018

4050 Days

That's basically what Germans have left, before zero gas and diesel new cars are forbidden from sales within Germany.   4,050 days.

I suspect the bulk of the public really hasn't grasped the Bundestag's law or the fine details.  People worrying about the x-day approaching?  Zero.  I don't think anyone really thinks much of it.

Legal challenges yet to come?  Probably....but it'll be closer to the year 2025 where the general public challenges the law and suggests that it harm the general public in countless ways.

How this will work?  I will suggest four paths likely to occur:

1.  At some point around 2022 to 2025....someone will start to analyze the electrical grid and provide numbers to the public and government.  I don't think the numbers will be that positive, with worry to start up that the grid isn't that robust.  If you figure somewhere around 3-million cars sold yearly in Germany, and the bulk of buyers will start to flip to electrical cars around 2025 to 2028....some national self-made emergency will occur where certain communities grow fearful.  This will in-turn....start a fear-buying campaign to put solar panels on houses and self-charge your own vehicle.

2.  The charging stations around the country for long-distance travel?  Well....you might see a handful of stations along the autobahn but it's probably one-percent of what would be needed once you arrive at 2030.  This travel situation will force thousands of Germans to have a strategy of sorts for a 800 kilometer or longer trip.  The idea that you might go from Hamburg across Germany, through Switzerland, and down to mid-Italy?  You might feel some comfort through Germany and Switzerland, but will the Italians match the station strength of Germany?  Probably not.  This will create a number of problems which long-distance travel (possible for almost a hundred years) might come to an end.

3.  Other nationalities that don't 'hug' the electrical trend and have to travel through Germany?  I see a general decrease in gas stations by 2030 occurring but half the stations still around in 2040.  But this will force people to plan on a complicated route....to ensure gas stations are along the route.

4.  The national fear of blackouts?  It's a harsh reality that you could have some blizzard occur in some area of Bavaria, and a 60 by 60 kilometer area is without electrical power for five or six days....leaving car owners furious about worthless car they are stuck with.  You could also find hackers eager to test the electrical grid, and bringing one entire city in Germany down for twelve hours and everyone unable to recharge their car during the evening for work tomorrow.

Forced to electrical cars?  More or less, and on paper....it's some Alice-in-Wonderland story.  In reality?  It might be Mary Shelly's Frankenstein story.

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