A Discussion Over E-Cars

I sat yesterday for a while and was pondering over the 2030 date for all gas and diesel new car sales in Germany to cease.  It's mandated....by law, at this point.

So if you examine the scenario, somewhere around early 2028....the car companies (Opel, VW, Porsche, BMW, Ford, Audi) will likely make an announcement that they are on the last schedule of production, and at the last quarter of 2029.....they will stop producing gas and diesel cars.

In my scenario, I anticipate that enthusiasm for the battery cars simply won't arrive as politicians or environmentalists suggest.  I even go as far to suggest that the one-million battery-car point will not be reached until the end of 2024.  For the companies who've heavily invested in this technology....it's a high risk situation.  They really need some pay-back to occur.

Once you get hit with this reminder in early 2028 about the production schedule....I kinda expect all 'hell' to break loose, and a tremendous number of Germans to arrive at the dealers by May 2028, and demand acceptance of an order for a new gas car.  I also expect the dealers and manufacturers to admit by that point (early summer 2028) that they've reached maximum sales and capacity for the plants.

The tens of thousands who show up late?  I expect them to question the situation, and go over to Toyota, and various Asian companies....to pre-order from them, in a fit of desperation to get the gas car before December 2029.

In fact, I expect a minimum of 10,000 Germans to go and pre-order cars, which will be accepted and then quietly pushed into a garage and sit there for a minimum of five to ten years, and then 'activated'....with acceptance of battery cars being a dismal choice.

I'll even go and suggest that several thousand Germans will take their life savings....buying several (maybe ten to twenty cars)....putting 100 km on them, and storing them for ten years.  Then they will offer each gas car (valued originally at say 35,000 Euro) and resell them as used but practically brand-new, for 45,000 Euro each.

It'll be a better return rate than mutual funds or bonds.

The politicians may think they can mandate this and outwit the public, but the enthusiasm for e-cars simply isn't there.  In the end, the public may outwit the politicians.