I watch around five different Russian economist podcasts per week. One covers strictly grocery sales, and pricing. Two cover banks....the other two....general business trends.
I would suggest since late 2025....the five have reached a stage where they talk of the impending collapse.
Some elements involve the lack of cash funds....some zero infrastructure projects going on....some talk of manpower shortages...some elements involve zero loan opportunities exiting.
Since April? Fairly dismal.
No one (even China)....has any faith in the problem resolving.
Putin unable to give up the war? That's pretty much the weight of the problem.
Three things I believe will happen over the remainder of 2026.
First, the Crimea will collapse entirely....with Russian troops escaping to the east. A massive retreat....unauthorized by Putin, and troops refusing orders.....mostly over the lack of food.
Second, several eastern districts are likely to collapse and seek some framework to engage with China.
Third, the remaining oligarch members....'walking' out and giving up on ever returning to 'power'.
1 comment:
I don't think that any of this passes the smell test. I think you can apply these type of problems to the EU and I would believe it.
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