1. I'd give the Chancellor-swap-out situation occurring by late fall....near a 75-percent chance of occurring.
There's no scandal brewing....I'd describe simply like a soccer team which ought to be in first-place, but the coach can't seem to get things lined up, and the team is mostly at a 50-50 situation. So the idea of dumping the coach....pops up daily.
2. Was Merz hired to be the guy to bring economic stability into focus?
Yes.....but nothing much has been delivered.
3. Isn't most of the negativity in economic sense....all leading back to the anti-nuke-energy, anti-coal-energy, hefty cost of power, cut-off from Russian natural gas, etc?
This is a twenty-plus year 'path'....designed into weird way to diminish jobs and lessen the economic strength of Germany.
4. Even if they replace the Chancellor at this point....is there any real plus-up for the new guy?
I would offer the opinion....NO. He (whoever is selected by the party)....is linked to the SPD coalition, and not able to evolve into a better situation. I'd say within 12 months....coalition-collapse is possible, and a fresh new election likely by the fall of 2027.
5. In terms of state-elections, and likely AfD 'wins'....aren't CDU-likely voters likely to be disenchanted with coalitions where the CDU teams with the Linke Party?
If I were a CDU-conservative-voter, and you posed the 'fix' to be a CDU-led state gov't where they are partnering with the Linke folks....I'd probably stay home (not vote), or ask if things are bad enough for me to vote AfD. Humble guess: one out of three CDU-voters probably would feel this way.
6. The 'hot' topic toward Sep/Oct.....who replaces the President (Frank-Walter Steinmeier, SPD). His term ends in early 2027. I'm betting that the SPD works hard to ensure their pick 'wins'.
7. The term 'REFORM' probably gets hyped by the two public TV networks....at least forty times a day now.
8. Is it just odd...the polling for the left-of-center SPD.....at 12-to-13 percent?
You have four parties that fall into the left-of-center mentality.....each with a different brand.
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